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A Macroeconomic Analysis of the President’s 2016 Budget

A Macroeconomic Analysis of the President’s 2016 Budget August 21, 2015 Report – “The President’s policies would make U.S. output larger over the next decade than it would be under current law – mostly by changing immigration laws. Such economic effects would feed back into the budget in ways that would reduce deficits.”

“Each year, after the President releases his budget request, CBO analyzes the proposals in that request. Using its own economic projections and estimating procedures, CBO projects what the federal budget would look like over the next 10 years if the President’s proposals were adopted. CBO usually provides that information in two reports. The first examines the proposals’ direct effects on the budget; the second, which takes more time to prepare, shows the effects that the proposals would have on the economy and how those macroeconomic effects would, in turn, feed back into the budget. As this second report explains, CBO estimates that, under the President’s proposals, the nation’s real (inflation-adjusted) gross national product (GNP) would be 0.4 percent higher, on average, during the 2016–2020 period, and 1.7 percent higher during the 2021–2025 period, than under current law. After incorporating the proposals’ macroeconomic feedback into the budget, CBO estimates that deficits under the President’s proposals would be $1.4 trillion smaller during the 2016–2025 period than in CBO’s baseline, which is a projection of the paths that federal revenues and spending would take over the next decade if current laws generally remained unchanged. The inclusion of the macroeconomic feedback has changed the estimated deficits under the President’s proposals only slightly from those that CBO estimated in its first report; changes in law that have occurred since the release of that report have changed the estimated deficits more significantly.”

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