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Category Archives: Financial System

Testimony on the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025

CBO Report, January 27, 2015 Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives

“This statement summarizes CBO’s new baseline budget projections and economic forecast, which cover the period from 2015 to 2025. Those estimates were released in the report titled The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025. The federal budget deficit, which has fallen sharply during the past few years, is projected to hold steady relative to the size of the economy through 2018. Beyond that point, however, the gap between spending and revenues is projected to grow, further increasing federal debt relative to the size of the economy—which is already historically high. Those projections by the CBO, based on the assumption that current laws governing taxes and spending will generally remain unchanged, are built upon the agency’s economic forecast. According to that forecast, the economy will expand at a solid pace in 2015 and for the next few years—to the point that the gap between the nation’s output and its potential (that is, maximum sustainable) output will be essentially eliminated by the end of 2017. As a result, the unemployment rate will fall a little further, and more people will be encouraged to enter or stay in the labor force. Beyond 2017, CBO projects, real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product will grow at a rate that is notably less than the average growth during the 1980s and 1990s.”

Federal Reserve Issues Strategies for Improving the U.S. Payment System

“The Federal Reserve today issued “Strategies for Improving the U.S. Payment System,” which presents a multi-faceted plan for collaborating with payment system stakeholders including large and small businesses, emerging payments firms, card networks, payment processors, consumers and financial institutions to enhance the speed, safety and efficiency of the U.S. payment system. “A safer, more efficientContinue Reading

IMF Offers Free Access to Its Online Economic Data

“The International Monetary Fund has launched a new platform to support its move to free data and to improve online global statistical dissemination. The new portal enables bulk data downloads and introduces dynamic visualization to showcase datasets that became available free-of-charge on January 1, 2015. The platform will help users better query, visualize, download, andContinue Reading

Global Risks 2015 – World Economic Forum

“The 2015 edition of the Global Risks report completes a decade of highlighting the most significant long-term risks worldwide, drawing on the perspectives of experts and global decision-makers. Over that time, analysis has moved from risk identification to thinking through risk interconnections and the potentially cascading effects that result. Taking this effort one step further, this year’s report underscores potential causes as well as solutions to globalContinue Reading

The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025

“CBO projects that, under current law, the federal budget deficit will fall to $468 billion in 2015 – 2.6 percent of GDP – and remain roughly stable, as a percentage of GDP, through 2018. After that, the gap between spending and revenues is projected to grow, raising the already high level of federal debt. CBOContinue Reading

Brookings – 2014 Global Metro Monitor – An Uncertain Recovery

2014 Global Metro Monitor – Combined Change in Employment and GDP Per Capita (Index of Both Rates), 2013–2014 “With only 20 percent of the population, the world’s 300 largest metropolitan economies accounted for nearly half of global output in 2014. This interactive and report compare growth patterns in the world’s 300 largest metro economies on twoContinue Reading

Are Firm-Advisor Relationships Valuable? A Long-Term Perspective

Becher, David A. and Gordon, Rachel and Juergens, Jennifer L., Are Firm-Advisor Relationships Valuable? A Long-Term Perspective (January 24, 2015). Available for download at SSRN: “We examine long-term firm-advisor relations using an extended history of debt, equity, and merger transactions. Hard-to-value firms are more likely to maintain dedicated advisor relations (underwriters or merger advisors).Continue Reading

The Forecasting Power of Consumer Attitudes for Consumer Spending

Working Paper No. 14-10 by Michelle L. Barnes and Giovanni P. Olivei 2014 Series “The widely studied Reuters/Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is constructed from the answers to five questions from the more comprehensive Reuters/Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Yet little work has been done on what predictive power the information taken from this more thoroughContinue Reading

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Risk Spillovers in the Eurozone

Bernal, Oscar and Gnabo, Jean-Yves and Guilmin, Grégory, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Risk Spillovers in the Eurozone (January 22, 2015). Available for download at SSRN: “This paper focuses on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on risk spillovers within the Eurozone and contributes to these two growing literatures. To this end, we adapt theContinue Reading

Paper – The Creative Wealth of Nations

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7118. The Creative Wealth of Nations – How the Performing Arts Can Advance Development and Human Progress – by Patrick Kabanda, Foreword by Amartya Se. “Cultural activities are increasingly noted as drivers of meaningful development. But they have yet to gain a prominent place in the architecture of development strategy.Continue Reading

OCC Issues Government Securities Act booklet of the Comptroller’s Handbook

“The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued today the Government Securities Act” booklet of the Comptroller’s Handbook. This new booklet, part of the Securities Compliance series, consolidates certain guidance from the Comptroller’s Handbook for Compliance, “Securities Activities” booklet, issued in September 1991, and the Comptroller’s Handbook booklet “Investment Securities,” issued in MarchContinue Reading

Most Commodity Prices Expected to Continue Declining in 2015

“This year may well see a rare occurrence for world commodity markets – a decline in all nine key commodity price indices, says the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released today. While oil prices have seen the most dramatic decline, the third largest since World War II, other commodities have also been gradually weakeningContinue Reading