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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 29-30, 2014

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, July 29, 2014, at 10:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, July 30, 2014, at 9:00 a.m. 

[snipped from the release] Staff Review of the Economic Situation” The information reviewed for the July 29-30 meeting indicated that real gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded in the second quarter following its first-quarter decline, but it expanded at only a modest pace, on balance, over the first half of the year. Consumer price inflation rose somewhat in the second quarter, but futures prices for energy and agricultural commodities generally were trending down over the next couple of years and longer-run measures of inflation expectations remained stable. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its advance estimate for second-quarter real GDP, along with revised data for earlier periods, on the second day of the FOMC meeting. The staff’s assessment of economic activity and inflation in the first half of 2014, based on information available before the meeting began, was broadly consistent with the new information from the BEA. Measures of labor market conditions generally continued to improve during the intermeeting period. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased strongly in June, and the average monthly gain for the second quarter was the largest since the first quarter of 2012. The unemployment rate declined to 6.1 percent in June, the labor force participation rate was unchanged, and the employment-to-population ratio edged up. The rate of long-duration unemployment moved down, and the share of workers employed part time for economic reasons edged up; both measures remained elevated by historical standards. Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined further in recent weeks. The rate of job openings rose further in May, but the rate of hiring was unchanged and remained at a modest level. Industrial production increased in the second quarter, as higher output from manufacturers and mines more than offset a decline in the output of electric and natural gas utilities. Capacity utilization also moved higher in the second quarter. Automakers’ production schedules indicated that light motor vehicle assemblies would increase in the third quarter, and readings on new orders from national and regional manufacturing surveys were consistent with moderate gains in factory output in the near term.”

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