February 21, 2013
Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output
"In total, CBO estimates that ARRA will increase budget deficits by about $830 billion over the 2009–2019 period. By CBO’s estimate, close to half of that impact occurred in fiscal year 2010, and more than 90 percent of ARRA’s budgetary impact was realized by the end of December 2012. The effects of ARRA on output peaked in the first half of 2010 and have since diminished, CBO estimates. The effects of ARRA on employment are estimated to lag slightly behind the effects on output; CBO estimates that the employment effects began to wane at the end of 2010 and continued to do so through the fourth quarter of 2012."
See also How Have CBO’s Projections of Spending for Medicare and Medicaid Changed Since the August 2012 Baseline?