Government Documents
May 22, 2013
* New GAO Reports - Performance Management and Oversight, Hazardous Waste Cleanup, Spectrum Management, VA Education Benefits,
  • Government Efficiency and Effectiveness - Opportunities to Reduce Fragmentation, Overlap, and Duplication through Enhanced Performance Management and Oversight, GAO-13-590T, May 22, 2013
  • Hazardous Waste Cleanup - Observations on States' Role, Liabilities at DOD and Hardrock Mining Sites, and Litigation Issues, GAO-13-633T, May 22, 2013
  • Spectrum Management - Federal Relocation Costs and Auction Revenues, GAO-13-472, May 22, 2013
  • VA Education Benefits - VA Needs to Improve Program Management and Provide More Timely Information to Students, GAO-13-338, May 22, 2013
Permanent Link
* The 2011 FDIC assessment on banks managed liabilities: interest rate and balance-sheet responses

The 2011 FDIC assessment on banks managed liabilities: interest rate and balance-sheet responses by Lawrence L Kreicher, Robert N McCauley and Patrick McGuire, Working Papers No 413, May 2013

  • "The global financial crisis led to discussion of corrective bank taxes to promote financial stability. This paper interprets the widening of the FDIC assessment base from deposits to assets less equity for US-chartered banks in April 2011 as such a corrective or Pigovian tax. In terms of yields, banks shifted its cost to wholesale funders, benefiting floating-rate borrowers, while the linkage between onshore and offshore dollar money markets weakened. In terms of quantities, US-chartered banks shifted funding to more stable deposits. At the same time, the US branches of non-US banks, which were unaffected by the widened assessment base, increased US assets, funding their take-up of most of the Fed's reserve injection of $600 billion offshore. Thus, a new internationally uncoordinated policy had the expected effect on US banks' funding structure, but also redistributed dollar intermediation to non-US banks that continue to rely on wholesale funding. The implication for global financial stability is at best ambiguous."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee Testimony by Chairman Bernanke on the economic outlook

    "The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on April 30-May 1, 2013. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board’s Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes are based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting. FOMC minutes can be viewed on the Board's website. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee - April 30-May 1, 2013."

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    * Kauffman: Number of U.S. Companies that Reach $100-Million in Annual Revenues Remarkably Stable Over Past 20 Years

    "The pace at which the United States produces $100-million companies has been stable over the last 20 years despite changes in the economy. However, according to a new Kauffman paper released today, the locations and sectors in which those companies are created are changing. In the paper, The Constant: Companies that Matter, Kauffman Foundation Senior Fellow Paul Kedrosky explores the rate and founding locations of companies in the United States that "matter" from 1980 to present. Kedrosky uses three criteria to define companies that matter: They must be scalable, quickly reaching $100 million or more in revenues; they must be able to generate jobs quickly and broadly; and, they must be disproportionate creators of wealth, both directly through profits and salaries and indirectly through equity. "Companies unable to reach $100 million in revenues are still relevant to the economy," Kedrosky says. "But the $100-million firms meet an entirely different threshold that gives cities, states and countries an even greater economic advantage." Anywhere from 125 to 250 companies per year (out of roughly 552,000 new employer firms) are founded in the United States that reach $100 million in revenues. The largest contributors, in percentage terms, are from the consumer discretionary and industrials sectors. Taking into account sectoral contribution to U.S. GDP, the information technology sector produces more $100-million companies than might be expected."

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    May 21, 2013
    * Report - Markey, Waxman Report Highlights Gaps in Grid Security

    News release: "Drawing from responses from more than 100 utilities across America, a new report released today shows that the nation’s electric grid remains highly vulnerable to attacks from Iran and North Korea, or other threats like geomagnetic storms from solar activity. The report, released by Reps. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Henry A. Waxman (D-Calif.) indicates that the lengthy, industry-driven process by which grid security standards are set results in long delays and haphazard implementation of the voluntary security recommendations the industry refuses to make mandatory. The House Energy and Commerce Committee is holding a hearing on cybersecurity on Tuesday. The full report, entitled “Electric Grid Vulnerability: Industry Responses Reveal Security Gaps”, can be found HERE. In January, Reps. Markey and Waxman sent letters to more than 150 utilities asking how often the grid came under attack, what measures the utilities were taking to protect against cyber attacks like the Stuxnet computer worm, and other questions."

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    * FTC Releases Reports on 2011 Cigarette and Smokeless Tobacco Advertising and Promotion

    News release: "The amount spent on cigarette advertising and promotion by the largest cigarette companies in the United States rose from $8.05 billion in 2010 to $8.37 billion in 2011, due mainly to an increase in spending on price discounts, or discounts paid to cigarette retailers or wholesalers in order to reduce the price of cigarettes to consumers. Spending on price discounts increased from $6.49 billion in 2010 to $7.00 billion in in 2011. The price discounts category was the largest one in 2011, as it has been each year since 2002. The number of cigarettes sold to wholesalers and retailers in the United States declined from 281.6 billion in 2010 to 273.6 billion in 2011...To read the full reports, click on Federal Trade Commission Cigarette Report for 2011, and Federal Trade Commission Smokeless Tobacco Report for 2011."

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    * New GAO Reports - Natural Resources and Environment, Homeland Security, Immigration Enforcement, Telecommunications Network, GAO FY2014 Budget Request
    • Natural Resources and Environment - Funding for 10 States' Programs Supported by Four Environmental Protection Agency Categorical Grants, GAO-13-504R, May 6, 2013
    • Homeland Security - An Overall Strategy Is Needed to Strengthen Disease Surveillance in Livestock and Poultry, GAO-13-424, May 21, 2013
    • Immigration Enforcement - Preliminary Observations on DHS's Overstay Enforcement Efforts, GAO-13-602T, May 21, 2013
    • Telecommunications Networks - Addressing Potential Security Risks of Foreign-Manufactured Equipment, GAO-13-652T, May 21, 2013
    • Fiscal Year 2014 Budget Request - U.S. Government Accountability Office, GAO-13-617T, May 21, 2013
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    * Gallup - Pensions Are Top Income Source for Wealthier U.S. Retirees

    Gallup: "U.S. retirees with $50,000 or more in annual income are twice as likely as retirees below that threshold to say a work-sponsored pension plan is a major source of retirement funds. Instead, these lower-income retirees overwhelmingly cite Social Security as a major source of their retirement income...Among all U.S. retirees, Social Security continues to be the most commonly cited source of retirement funds, with 61% calling it a major source, followed by pension plans (36%), 401(k), IRA, or other retirement savings accounts (23%), and home equity (20%). Those sources differ from nonretirees' expected retirement income sources, with self-directed savings accounts such as 401(k) plans or IRAs topping the list of funding streams that pre-retirees expect to rely most on."

  • Related postings on financial system

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    * GPO is requesting $128.5 million for FY 2014

    "GPO is requesting $128.5 million for FY 2014, which is provided through three separate accounts in the annual Legislative Branch Appropriations bill...GPO is the Federal Government's official, digital, secure resource for producing, procuring, cataloging, indexing, authenticating, disseminating, and preserving the official information products of the U.S. Government. The GPO is responsible for the production and distribution of information products and services for all three branches of the Federal Government, including U.S. passports for the Department of State as well as the official publications of Congress, the White House, and other Federal agencies in digital and print formats. GPO provides for permanent public access to Federal Government information at no charge through our Federal Digital System (www.fdsys.gov), partnerships with approximately 1,200 libraries nationwide participating in the Federal Depository Library Program, and our secure online bookstore. For more information, please visit www.gpo.gov."

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    * New NOAA report examines national oil pollution threat from shipwrecks

    News release: "NOAA presented to the U.S. Coast Guard today a new report that finds that 36 sunken vessels scattered across the U.S. seafloor could pose an oil pollution threat to the nation’s coastal marine resources. Of those, 17 were recommended for further assessment and potential removal of both fuel oil and oil cargo. The sunken vessels are a legacy of more than a century of U.S. commerce and warfare. They include a barge lost in rough seas in 1936; two motor-powered ships that sank in separate collisions in 1947 and 1952; and a tanker that exploded and sank in 1984. The remaining sites are 13 merchant marine ships lost during World War II, primarily along the Atlantic Seaboard and Gulf of Mexico. To see a list of the ships and their locations, visit here. The report, part of NOAA’s Remediation of Underwater Legacy Environmental Threats (RULET) project, identifies the location and nature of potential sources of oil pollution from sunken vessels. Knowing where these vessels are helps oil response planning efforts and may help in the investigation of reported mystery spills--sightings of oil where a source is not immediately known or suspected."

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    May 20, 2013
    * UNESCO to make its publications available free of charge as part of a new Open Access policy

    New Policy: "UNESCO will make its digital publications available to millions of people around the world free-of-charge with an open license. Following a decision by the Organization’s Executive Board in April, UNESCO has become the first member of the United Nations to adopt such an Open Access policy for its publications. The new policy means that anyone will be able to download, translate, adapt, distribute and re-share UNESCO publications and data without paying."

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    * Kaiser - A State-by-State Snapshot of Poverty Among Seniors

    A State-by-State Snapshot of Poverty Among Seniors: Findings From Analysis of the Supplemental Poverty Measure. May 20, 2013 | Zachary Levinson, Anthony Damico, Juliette Cubanski and Patricia Neuman

  • "During recent deficit reduction discussions, policymakers have debated whether to increase Medicare beneficiaries’ contributions toward their medical care and reduce the cost of living adjustment to Social Security benefits.Having a clear picture of the extent of poverty among seniors, both nationally and at the state level, is important in the context of these debates. Traditionally, the Census Bureau has estimated poverty rates using the “official” poverty measure, which was created in the early 1960s. Some have expressed concern that the official measure is outdated and does not accurately reflect individuals’ incomes or financial resources. In response, the Census Bureau released an alternative measure for the first time in 2011, known as the supplemental poverty measure, which defines income and poverty differently than the official measure. The Census Bureau has reported that poverty rates among the elderly (those ages 65 and older) are higher under the supplemental poverty measure (15%) than under the official poverty measure (9%), which is due in large part to the fact that the former deducts health expenses from income. This analysis looks beyond the national data to examine results by state. The brief describes the two measures of poverty and examines the share of seniors living in poverty and the share of seniors with modest incomes (defined here as below 200 percent of poverty), by state, under both measures, based on pooled data from the 2009 to 2011 Current Population Surveys."

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    * DOJ IG Report of Investigation Concerning the Improper Disclosure of DOJ Information to a Member of the Media

    U.S. Department of Justice Office of the Inspector General Report of Investigation Concerning the Improper Disclosure of U.S. Department of Justice Information to a Member of the Media, May 2013

  • "...In Section II of this report, we provide background information about the Dodson memorandum and the Department policies that govern the disclosure of information to the media by Department officials, including U.S. Attorneys. Section III describes our factual findings concerning the disclosure of the Dodson memorandum. We also include in this section a description of relevant information the Department learned during its review of another disclosure to the media in the summer of 2011 of confidential Department information relating to Operation Fast and Furious. Section IV sets forth our analysis and conclusions."

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    • * New GAO Reports: Prescription Drug Pricing Comparison, DOD Business Systems Modernization
    • Prescription Drugs - Comparison of DOD and VA Direct Purchase Prices, GAO-13-358, Apr 19, 2013: "When GAO compared prices paid by the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) for a sample of 83 drugs purchased in the first calendar quarter of 2012, DOD's average unit price for the entire sample was 31.8 percent ($0.11 per unit) higher than VA's average price, and DOD's average unit price for the subset of 40 generic drugs was 66.6 percent ($0.04 per unit) higher than VA's average price. However, VA's average unit price for the subset of 43 brand-name drugs was 136.9 percent ($1.01 per unit) higher than DOD's average price. These results were consistent with each agency obtaining better prices on the type of drugs that made up the majority of its utilization: generic drugs accounted for 83 percent of VA's utilization of the sample drugs and brand-name drugs accounted for 54 percent of DOD's utilization of the sample drugs. DOD officials told GAO that in certain circumstances they are able to obtain competitive prices for brand-name drugs--even below the prices for generic equivalents--and therefore will often preferentially purchase brand-name drugs.
    • DOD Business Systems Modernization - Further Actions Needed to Address Challenges and Improve Accountability, GAO-13-557, May 17, 2013: "The Department of Defense (DOD) continues efforts to establish a business enterprise architecture (a modernization blueprint) and transition plan and modernize its business systems and processes, in compliance with key provisions of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2005 and amendments. Nonetheless, long-standing challenges remain."
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    * Brookings - Confronting Suburban Poverty in America

    "It has been nearly a half century since President Lyndon Johnson declared his War on Poverty, setting in motion development of America’s modern safety net. Back in the 1960s, tackling poverty “in place” meant focusing resources in the inner city and in isolated rural areas. The suburbs were home to middle- and upper-class families—affluent commuters and homeowners who did not want to raise kids in the city. But the America of 2012 is a very different place. Poverty is no longer just an urban or rural problem but increasingly a suburban one as well. In Confronting Suburban Poverty in America, Elizabeth Kneebone and Alan Berube take on the new reality of metropolitan poverty and opportunity in America. For decades, suburbs added poor residents at a faster pace than cities, so that suburbia is now home to more poor residents than central cities, composing over a third of the nation’s total poor population. Unfortunately, the antipoverty infrastructure built over the past several decades does not fit this rapidly changing geography. The solution no longer fits the problem. Kneebone and Berube explain the source and impact of these important developments; moreover, they present innovative ideas on addressing them."

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    * EIA UK Country Analysis Brief Overview
    • "The United Kingdom is the largest producer of oil and the second-largest producer of natural gas in the European Union. Following years of exports of both fuels, the UK became a net importer of natural gas and crude oil in 2004 and 2005, respectively.
    • Although aggressive targets for renewable energy are in place, oil remains important to the UK energy balance, with oil contributing 38 percent of total energy consumption. Recent increases in tax rates for the oil and gas sector, coupled with technical issues, have contributed to sharp declines in UK oil production. Higher tax rates have made the UK fields less competitive, which were already strained by high operating and decommissioning costs.
    • Although a number of new fields are expected to come online in 2013, UK production will continue to decline as new production will not be sufficient to offset the declines.
    • Once a major exporter of oil, the UK exports have dropped in tandem with decreasing domestic production."
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    * TRAC: Where Individuals Enter ICE Custody: State-by-State Details

    Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse: "On a typical work day Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) took 1,509 individuals into custody, according to the latest available ICE data from November and December 2012. If activity continues at this pace, ICE will detain around 400,000 individuals during the current fiscal year. Seven out of every ten individuals were originally detained in states along the southwest border with Mexico. Three states head the list: Texas (37% of detainees), Arizona (17% of detainees) and California (15% of detainees). Florida and Georgia were the two non-border states with the most individuals detained by ICE. Six additional states -- New York, Louisiana, Virginia, Illinois, Washington and Colorado -- had the next highest levels of enforcement activity. In these states in a typical week, between 100 and 200 individuals were picked up and detained by ICE. For more details, including specific locations within each state, go to the report."

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    * CBO - An Analysis of the President’s 2014 Budget

    "This report by CBO presents an analysis of the proposals contained in the President’s budget request for fiscal year 2014. The analysis is based on CBO’s economic projections and estimating assumptions and models, rather than the Administration’s, and incorporates estimates by the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) for the President’s tax proposals. In conjunction with analyzing the President’s budget, CBO has updated its baseline budget projections, which were previously issued in February 2013. Unlike its estimates of the President’s budget, CBO’s baseline projections largely reflect the assumption that current tax and spending laws will remain unchanged, so as to provide a benchmark against which potential legislation can be measured. Under that assumption, CBO estimates that the deficit would total $642 billion in 2013 and that the cumulative deficit over the 2014–2023 period would amount to $6.3 trillion. The President’s budget request specifies spending and revenue policies for the 2014–2023 period and includes initiatives that would have budgetary effects in fiscal year 2013 as well. According to CBO’s and JCT’s estimates, enactment of the President’s proposals would, relative to CBO’s baseline, boost deficits between 2013 and 2015 but reduce them by increasing amounts from 2016 through 2023."

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    * Sodium Intake in Populations: Assessment of Evidence

    Sodium Intake in Populations: Assessment of Evidence, May 14, 2013: "Despite public health efforts over the past several decades to encourage people in the United States to consume less sodium, adults still consume an average of 3,400 mg/day, well above the current federal guideline of 2,300 mg or less daily. Evidence has shown that reducing sodium intake reduces blood pressure and the risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke. Some recent research, however, suggests that sodium intakes that are low may also increase health risks – particularly in certain groups. The CDC asked the IOM to examine the designs, methodologies, and conclusions in this latest body of research on dietary sodium intake and health outcomes in the general U.S. population and among individuals with hypertension; pre-hypertension; those 51 years of age and older; African Americans; and those with diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and congestive heart failure. The IOM committee also was asked to comment on the implications of this new evidence for population-based strategies to gradually reduce sodium intake and to identify gaps in data and research and suggest ways to address them."

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    May 19, 2013
    * Commentary - Afghanistan: The Real World Choices in Staying or Leaving

    Center for Strategic and International Studies - Afghanistan: The Real World Choices in Staying or Leaving, by Anthony H. Cordesman - May 16, 2013

  • "The reality is that no one knows how many aid pledges will be kept or how much aid is needed simply to provide economic stability for the elite that governs and provides security, to meet popular expectations in heavily populated areas, and limit the ability of the Taliban to take advantage of the situation and return to exploiting the narco-economy. The United States, its allies, and the Afghan government all need to honestly assess the risks involved, be ready to provide aid to help Afghanistan through the transition, and focus on building stability and popular support in a wartime economy."
  • By the same author, see also The Afghan War in 2013: Meeting the Challenges of Transition--Volume I: The Challenges of Leadership and Governance; The Afghan War in 2013: Meeting the Challenges of Transition--Volume II: Afghan Economics and Outside Aid; The Afghan War in 2013: Meeting the Challenges of Transition--Volume III: Security and the ANSF

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    * The Long and the Short of Household Formation

    The Long and the Short of Household Formation, Andrew D. Paciorek, 2013-26. May 10, 2013

  • "One of the drivers of housing demand is the rate of new household formation, which has been well below trend in recent years, leading to persistent weakness in the housing market. This paper studies the determinants of household formation in the United States, including demographic and behavioral changes, and how they evolve over the long and short runs. There are three main findings: First, because older adults tend to live in smaller households, the aging of the U.S. population over the past 30 years has reduced the average household size, or equivalently, pushed up the headship rate and household formation. Second, after stripping out the effects of the aging population, the residual behavioral component of the headship rate has declined over time, thanks largely to rising housing costs. This shift has reduced household formation, all else equal. Finally, the short-run dynamics of headship and household formation reflect the effects of the business cycle. In particular, I find that poor labor market outcomes have played an important role in depressing the headship rate in recent years. Consequently, household formation could increase substantially as the labor market recovers and the headship rate returns to trend."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * The History of Cyclical Macroprudential Policy in the United States

    The History of Cyclical Macroprudential Policy in the United States, Douglas J. Elliott, Greg Feldberg, and Andreas Lehnert. 2013-29. May 15, 2013

  • "Since the financial crisis of 2007-2009, policymakers have debated the need for a new toolkit of cyclical "macroprudential" policies to constrain the build-up of risks in financial markets, for example, by dampening credit-fueled asset bubbles. These discussions tend to ignore America's long and varied history with many of the instruments under consideration to smooth the credit cycle, presumably because of their sparse usage in the last three decades. We provide the first comprehensive survey and historic narrative of these efforts. The tools whose background and use we describe include underwriting standards, reserve requirements, deposit rate ceilings, credit growth limits, supervisory pressure, and other financial regulatory policy actions. The contemporary debates over these tools highlighted a variety of concerns, including "speculation," undesirable rates of inflation, and high levels of consumer spending, among others. Ongoing statistical work suggests that macroprudential tightening lowers consumer debt but macroprudential easing does not increase it."
  • Related posting on financial system

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    May 18, 2013
    * Chairman Bernanke - Economic Prospects for the Long Run

    Chairman Ben S. Bernanke At Bard College at Simon's Rock, Great Barrington, Massachusetts. May 18, 2013

  • "What's so important about creativity and critical thinking? There are many answers. I am an economist, so I will answer by talking first about our economic future--or your economic future, I should say, because each of you will have many years, I hope, to contribute to and benefit from an increasingly sophisticated, complex, and globalized economy. My emphasis today will be on prospects for the long run. In particular, I will be looking beyond the very real challenges of economic recovery that we face today--challenges that I have every confidence we will overcome--to speak, for a change, about economic growth as measured in decades, not months or quarters."

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    May 17, 2013
    * Ernst & Young - 12th Global Fraud Survey

    "Driven by market uncertainties and declining economic growth forecasts, many companies are struggling to maintain margins. With fewer remaining opportunities for cost-cutting, many businesses are now focused on opportunities in rapid-growth markets. Even these markets, however, are feeling the effects of a weakened global economy. In this environment, our 12th Global Fraud Survey's findings are, unfortunately, a further cause for concern. They suggest that bribery, corruption and fraud remain widespread. At the same time, many countries are strengthening their enforcement regimes, for example the UK, with the introduction of the Bribery Act, and India, with a range of proposed anti-bribery/anti-corruption (ABAC) legislation. As regulatory activity intensifies, the risk of external scrutiny of corporate activity also increases. Senior management must do more to ensure that they and their companies are not found wanting should their activities come under the spotlight."

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    * Roxarsone, Inorganic Arsenic, and Other Arsenic Species in Chicken: A U.S.-Based Market Basket Sample

    Roxarsone, Inorganic Arsenic, and Other Arsenic Species in Chicken: A U.S.-Based Market Basket Sample. Keeve E. Nachman, Patrick A. Baron, Georg Raber, Kevin A. Francesconi, Ana Navas-Acien and David C. Love http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206245, Online 10 May 2013.

  • "Arsenic-based drugs are permitted in poultry production. Inorganic arsenic (iAs) causes cancer and maybe other adverse health outcomes. The contribution of chicken consumption to iAs intake, however, is unknown. Objectives: To characterize arsenic species profile in chicken meat and estimate bladder and lung cancer risk associated with consuming chicken produced with arsenic-based drugs. Methods: Conventional, conventional antibiotic-free, and organic chicken samples were collected from grocery stores in ten US metropolitan areas from December 2010 to June 2011. 116 raw and 142 cooked samples were tested for total arsenic, and 78 samples ≥10µg/kg dry weight underwent speciation. Conclusions: Conventional chicken meat had higher iAs concentrations than conventional antibiotic-free and organic chicken meat samples. Cessation of arsenical drug use could reduce exposure and the burden of arsenic-related disease in chicken consumers."

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    • * A Toxic Flood: Why We Need Stronger Regulations to Protect Public Health from Industrial Water Pollution

    "In this report - A Toxic Flood: Why We Need Stronger Regulations to Protect Public Health from Industrial Water Pollution, 2009 Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) data and the Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) model are used to identify the entities most responsible for the total hazard from industrial water pollution in the United States. The report is based on research conducted at the Political Economy Research Institute of the University of Massachusetts Amherst to compile a ranking of the Toxic 100 Water Polluters.The report shows that leading energy and chemical manufacturing companies are dumping massive amounts of toxic chemicals into surface waters, putting in danger the lives and wellbeing of those exposed to the resulting pollution."

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    * Food Safety and Inspection Service - Inspection and Enforcement Activities At Swine Slaughter Plants

    Food Safety and Inspection Service — Inspection and Enforcement Activities At Swine Slaughter Plants Audit Report 24601-0001-41, 05/14/2013

  • "The Food Safety and Inspection Service’s (FSIS) enforcement
    policies do not deter swine slaughter plants from becoming repeat violators of the Federal Meat Inspection Act (FMIA). As a result,
    plants have repeatedly violated the same regulations with little or no consequence. We found that in 8 of the 30 plants we visited, inspectors did not always examine the internal organs of carcasses in accordance with FSIS inspection requirements, or did not take enforcement actions against plants that violated food safety regulations. As a result, there is reduced assurance of FSIS inspectors effectively identifying pork that should not enter the food supply. We also found FSIS could not determine whether the goals of a pilot program — Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) - based Inspection Models Project (HIMP) — were met because FSIS did not adequately oversee the program. In the 15 years since the program’s inception, FSIS did not critically assess whether the new inspection process had measurably improved food safety at each HIMP plant, a key goal of the program. Finally, we found that FSIS inspectors did not take appropriate enforcement actions at 8 of the 30 swine slaughter plants we visited for violations of the Humane Method of Slaughter Act (HMSA). We reviewed 158 humane handling noncompliance records (violations) issued to the 30 plants and found 10 instances of egregious violations where inspectors did not issue suspensions. As a result, the plants did not improve their slaughter practices, and FSIS could not ensure humane handling of swine."
  • See also USDA Inspector General Reveals Food Safety Breakdowns At Hog Plants Using Privatized Inspection Model

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    * New GAO Report - DOD Business Systems Modernization

    DOD Business Systems Modernization - Further Actions Needed to Address Challenges and Improve Accountability, GAO-13-557, May 17, 2013

  • "The Department of Defense (DOD) continues efforts to establish a business enterprise architecture (a modernization blueprint) and transition plan and modernize its business systems and processes, in compliance with key provisions of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2005 and amendments. Nonetheless, long-standing challenges remain. The following table reflects the status of DOD’s actions to fulfill selected requirements of the act."

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    * Risks Posed by Securities Loans Collateralized by Cash

    Risks Posed by Securities Loans Collateralized by Cash. May 15, 2013

  • "Securities loans collateralized by cash—the most popular form of securities lending—can under certain conditions pose significant financial market risks, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Initiatives to alleviate these potential risks should aim to improve transparency around cash reinvestment practices and to reexamine incentive issues present in standard compensation arrangements between securities owners and agent lenders. In “Securities Loans Collateralized by Cash: Reinvestment Risk, Run Risk and Incentive Issues,” author Frank Keane provides a brief overview of securities lending, discusses the risks inherent in related cash reinvestment activities, and describes the incentive problems associated with the standard compensation scheme for lending agents. The author also points to the AIG experience to highlight how risk related to cash reinvestment—by even a single participant—could have destabilizing effects. The report determines that the standard compensation scheme for securities lending agents, which typically provides for agents to share in gains but not losses, creates incentives for them to take excessive risk. “The asymmetric payoff of the standard compensation arrangement is similar to giving a call option to the agent, which, all else equal, provides the agent with an incentive to pursue high-risk investment strategies.”
    To address potential risks in securities loans collateralized by cash transactions, the author suggests the implementation of improved transparency practices and realignment of incentives in agent compensation arrangements. Furthermore, an increase in data transparency, in particular around cash reinvestment choices, seems likely to lower the possibility of runs and is a reasonable cost to bear if it mitigates the risk of future financial system disruption. Frank Keane is a policy advisor and assistant vice president in the Markets Group at the New York Fed."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    May 16, 2013
    * NASA Technical Reports Server Has Limited Content Availability Until Further Notice

    "The U.S. Government Printing Office has been informed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that users of certain electronic NASA documents are not to share documents that are marked publicly available in the NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS) until further notice. The documents cannot be shared with non-U.S. citizens. NASA staff members are reviewing all documents that were previously marked “publicly available” and were loaded on the NTRS to determine if the documents have an approved NF-1676 (Document Availability Authorization) with export control signature and approval. Robert Lightfoot, NASA Associate Administrator, ordered that the NTRS be taken down and the following message was approved for release by John Hall, Export Control and Interagency Liaison: “The NASA technical reports server will be unavailable for public access while the agency conducts a review of the site's content to ensure that it does not contain technical information that is subject to U.S. export control laws and regulations and that the appropriate reviews were performed. The site will return to service when the review is complete. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.” During this time, PURLs that GPO has created for the electronic versions of NASA Technical Reports found in cataloging records accessed through the Catalog of U.S. Government Publications (CGP) may not link to the documents that the catalog record describes. GPO has been asked to suspend any activity related to making these documents available if they have not been reviewed. When NASA makes full content on NTRS available once again, the database will be redesigned and have enhanced features for access."

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    * The Biggest Bang Theory: How to get the most out of the competitive search for STEMM employees

    "Individuals with science, technology, engineering, mathematical and medical (STEMM) skills play a key role in helping our government fulfill its critical missions and foster America’s global competitiveness. However, as the demand for STEMM talent increases and the supply shrinks, the ability for government to fill these critical positions is at risk. In this hyper-competitive environment, how can agencies increase their odds of landing the best STEMM talent? That is what the Partnership for Public Service and Booz Allen Hamilton set out to understand in the newly released report, The Biggest Bang Theory: How to get the most out of the competitive search for STEMM employees. The report includes 10 best practices for how federal agencies can sharpen their recruiting and hiring game and land top STEMM talent."

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    * New GAO Reports - Defense Management, Diversity Management, Elder Justice, K-12 Education, Oil and Gas Management

  • Defense Management - Additional Information Needed to Improve Military Departments' Strategies for Corrosion Prevention and Control, GAO-13-379, May 16, 2013
  • Diversity Management - Trends and Practices in the Financial Services Industry and Agencies after the Recent Financial Crisis, GAO-13-238, Apr 16, 2013
  • Elder Justice - Federal Government Has Taken Some Steps but Could Do More to Combat Elder Financial Exploitation, GAO-13-626T, May 16, 2013
  • Government Efficiency and Effectiveness - Strategies for Reducing Fragmentation, Overlap, and Duplication and Achieving Cost Savings, GAO-13-631T, May 16, 2013
  • K-12 Education - States' Test Security Policies and Procedures Varied, GAO-13-495R, May 16, 2013
  • Medicare - Legislative Modifications Have Resulted in Payment Adjustments for Most Hospitals, GAO-13-334, Apr 17, 2013
  • Oil and Gas Management - Continued Attention to Interior's Revenue Collection and Human Capital Challenges Is Needed, GAO-13-647T, May 16, 2013

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    * New study links multiple concussions sustained in combat with increased suicidal risk

    Alan Zarembo, LATimes.com: "The U.S. military has faced two epidemics over the last decade of war in Afghanistan and Iraq. One is suicide. The annual rate of military personnel taking their own lives has doubled to about 20 per 100,000. That translated to a record 324 suicides in the Army last year. The other is concussion, also known as mild traumatic brain injury, or TBI. The proliferation of roadside bombs has subjected thousands of troops to brain-rattling explosions. Several studies have suggested a link between the two epidemics — that service members who suffered concussions are at greater risk for suicide. A paper published Wednesday in the journal JAMA Psychiatry helps illuminate the nature of that relationship. Researchers found that military personnel in Iraq who suffered multiple concussions were far more prone to suicidal thoughts than those who sustained just one such injury or never had a concussion."

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    * CRS - Regulation of Fertilizers: Ammonium Nitrate and Anhydrous Ammonia

    Regulation of Fertilizers: Ammonium Nitrate and Anhydrous Ammonia, May 9, 2013

  • "The explosion on April 17, 2013, at the West Fertilizer Company fertilizer distribution facility in West, TX, has led to questions about the oversight and regulation of agricultural fertilizer. Facilities holding chemicals must comply with regulations attempting to ensure occupational safety, environmental protection, and homeland security. In addition to federal regulation requiring reporting and planning for ammonium nitrate and anhydrous ammonia, most state and some local governments have laws and regulations regarding the handling of either or both of these chemicals. The West Fertilizer Company possessed a variety of agricultural chemicals at its retail facility, but policy interest has focused on two chemicals: ammonium nitrate and anhydrous ammonia. Ammonium nitrate is a solid that is primarily used as a fertilizer whose use generally occurs without incident. In combination with a fuel source and certain conditions, such as added heat or shock, confinement, or contamination, ammonium nitrate can pose an explosion hazard. Such accidents have rarely occurred, but have historically had high impacts. For example, the ammonium nitrate explosion in 1947 in Texas City, TX, where two ships carrying ammonium nitrate caught fire and exploded, destroyed the entire dock area, including numerous oil tanks, dwellings, and business buildings. The bomb used in 1995 to attack the Murrah Federal Building contained ammonium nitrate as a component of its explosives."

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    * The Informed Brain in a Digital World: Interdisciplinary Team Summaries

    "Digital media provide humans with more access to information than ever before—a computer, tablet, or smartphone can all be used to access data online and users frequently have more than one device. However, as humans continue to venture into the digital frontier, it remains to be known whether access to seemingly unlimited information is actually helping us learn and solve complex problems, or ultimately creating more difficulty and confusion for individuals and societies by offering content overload that is not always meaningful. Throughout history, technology has changed the way humans interact with the world. Improvements in tools, language, industrial machines, and now digital information technology have shaped our minds and societies. There has always been access to more information than humans can handle, but the difference now lies in the ubiquity of the Internet and digital technology, and the incredible speed with which anyone with a computer can access and participate in seemingly infinite information exchange. Humans now live in a world where mobile digital technology is everywhere, from the classroom and the doctor's office to public transportation and even the dinner table. This paradigm shift in technology comes with tremendous benefits and risks. Interdisciplinary Research (IDR) Teams at the 2012 National Academies Keck Futures Initiative Conference on The Informed Brain in the Digital World explored common rewards and dangers to Humans among various fields that are being greatly impacted by the Internet and the rapid evolution of digital technology. Keynote speaker Clifford Nass of Stanford University opened the dialogue by offering insight into what we already know about how the "information overload" of the digital world may be affecting our brains. Nass presented the idea of the "media budget," which states that when a new media emerges, it takes time away from other media in a daily time budget. When additional media appear and there is no time left in a person's daily media budget, people begin to "double book" media time. Personal computers, tablets, and smartphones make it easy to use several media simultaneously, and according to Nass, this double-booking of media can result in chronic multitasking, which effects how people store and manage memory. Although current fast-paced work and learning environments often encourage multitasking, research shows that such multitasking is inefficient, decreases productivity, and may hinder cognitive function. National Academies Keck Future Initiative: The Informed Brain in a Digital World summarizes the happenings of this conference."

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    * New Best Places to Work Analysis: Most Innovative Agencies

    "In this uncertain environment, many federal employees are facing the same challenge: do more with less and do it better. The Partnership for Public Service and Deloitte’s new Best Places to Work in the Federal Government® analysis found that the vast majority of federal workers want to be innovative and are looking for ways to perform their jobs better. However, many employees said that they often lack their leaders’ support to do so, and even fewer said that creativity and innovation are rewarded in the workplace. There are exceptions, and the new analysis includes rankings of the most innovative agencies along with the biggest movers."

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    * Kaiser - Health Insurance Subsidy Calculator

    Health Insurance Subsidy Calculator - Estimate impact based on income, family size, age, and tobacco usage

  • "This tool illustrates health insurance premiums and subsidies for people purchasing insurance on their own in new health insurance exchanges (or “Marketplaces”) created by the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Beginning in October 2013, middle-income people under age 65, who are not eligible for coverage through their employer, Medicaid, or Medicare, can apply for tax credit subsidies available through state-based exchanges. Additionally, states have the option to expand their Medicaid programs to cover all people making up to 138% of the federal poverty level (which is about $33,000 for a family of four). In states that opt out of expanding Medicaid, some people making below this amount will still be eligible for Medicaid, some will be eligible for subsidized coverage through Marketplaces, and others will not be eligible for subsidies. With this calculator, you can enter different income levels, ages, and family sizes to get an estimate of your eligibility for subsidies and how much you could spend on health insurance. As premiums and eligibility requirements may vary, contact your state’s Medicaid office or exchange with enrollment questions."

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    * Pew - Warming Oceans Are Reshaping Fisheries

    "For the first time, scientists have shown that ocean warming has had a global impact on the mix of species caught by fishermen. Previous studies indicated that some species are shifting location in response to temperature increases, with fish gradually moving away from the equator into cooler waters. However, research published in May 2013 in Nature shows that species from warmer waters have also been replacing those traditionally caught in many fisheries worldwide at least since 1970...The authors found that, except in the tropics, catch composition in most ecosystems slowly changed to include more warm-water species and fewer cool-water species. In the tropics, the catch followed a similar pattern from 1970 to 1980 and then stabilized, likely because there are no species with high enough temperature preferences to replace those that declined. Statistical models showed that the increase in warm-water species was significantly related to increasing ocean temperatures.

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    * CDC - Suicide Among Adults Aged 35–64 Years - United States, 1999–2010

    Suicide Among Adults Aged 35–64 Years — United States, 1999–2010. MMWR, May 3, 2013 / 62(17); 321-325

  • "Suicide is an increasing public health concern. In 2009, the number of deaths from suicide surpassed the number of deaths from motor vehicle crashes in the United States (1). Traditionally, suicide prevention efforts have been focused mostly on youths and older adults, but recent evidence suggests that there have been substantial increases in suicide rates among middle-aged adults in the United States (2). To investigate trends in suicide rates among adults aged 35–64 years over the last decade, CDC analyzed National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) mortality data from 1999–2010. Trends in suicide rates were examined by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, state and region of residence, and mechanism of suicide. The results of this analysis indicated that the annual, age-adjusted suicide rate among persons aged 35–64 years increased 28.4%, from 13.7 per 100,000 population in 1999 to 17.6 in 2010. Among racial/ethnic populations, the greatest increases were observed among American Indian/Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) (65.2%, from 11.2 to 18.5) and whites (40.4%, from 15.9 to 22.3). By mechanism, the greatest increase was observed for use of suffocation (81.3%, from 2.3 to 4.1), followed by poisoning (24.4%, from 3.0 to 3.8) and firearms (14.4%, from 7.2 to 8.3). The findings underscore the need for suicide preventive measures directed toward middle-aged populations."

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    May 15, 2013
    * Hitting the limits of "outside the box" thinking? Monetary policy in the crisis and beyond

    Hitting the limits of "outside the box" thinking? Monetary policy in the crisis and beyond. Speech by Jaime Caruana, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements, to OMFIF (Golden Series Lecture), London, 16 May 2013.

  • "Central banks have had to "think outside the box" to address unprecedented financial instability and to provide monetary stimulus in trying times. Monetary accommodation has been critical to stabilise the financial system and the economy. But questions remain about the efficacy of such policies as long as balance sheets and structural headwinds are not more fully addressed. Monetary accommodation can only be as helpful as the balance sheet, fiscal and structural policies that accompany it. Looking ahead, central banks will continue to face daunting challenges as they navigate in uncharted waters, including how best to integrate new perspectives on the financial cycle and global spillovers into their monetary policy frameworks."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * New on GAO - Defense Headquarters, Financial Audit, Strategic Sourcing
    • Defense Headquarters - DOD Needs to Periodically Review and Improve Visibility Of Combatant Commands' Resources, GAO-13-293, May 15, 2013
    • Strategic Sourcing - Financial Audit - Congressional Award Foundation's Fiscal Years 2012 and 2011 Financial Statements, GAO-13-554, May 15, 2013
    • Strategic Sourcing - Leading Commercial Practices Can Help Federal Agencies - Increase Savings When Acquiring Services, GAO-13-417, Apr 15, 2013
    • Temporary Assistance For Needy Families - Potential Options to Improve Performance and Oversight, GAO-13-431, May 15, 2013
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    * NOAA - April temperatures were coolest since 1997

    April was cool, wet and had more snow on the ground for the contiguous U.S.; April temperatures were coolest since 1997

  • "The April average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 49.7°F, which was 1.4°F below the 20th century average. April 2013 ranked as the 23rd coolest such month on record and marked the coolest April since 1997 when the monthly average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 48.0°F."
  • Related postings on climate change

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    * BIS - Consumer Inflation Expectations in Turkey

    Consumer Inflation Expectations in Turkey. IFC Working Papers No 10, May 2013

  • "The expectations obtained from surveys play an important role as leading indicators for the application of the monetary policies. The ability to measure inflation expectations is an integral part of central bank policy especially for central banks that are implementing inflation-targeting regime. A forward-looking perspective is essential to the success of inflation targeting. Therefore, a central bank which has the primary objective of price stability is interested in inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations obtained from surveys can be quantified into numerical indicators of the expected rates of price change. This paper presents the results of different quantification methods such as Carlson-Parkin method, balance method, regression method put into action in order to estimate Turkish consumer inflation predictions based on monthly consumer surveys. Carlson-Parkin method quantifies qualitative survey data on expectations assuming aggregate expectations are normally distributed. In order to capture non-normality, stable distributions are also considered. The quantification techniques are compared with each other as well. The regression method is found to be the closest one to realizations. Therefore, expectations via this method is used for all the remaining analyses. Actual inflation and inflation expectations are found to have a cointegration relation. Unbiasedness assumption under REH is rejected within VECM. After rejecting a rational model of the formation of inflation expectations, hybrid model of expectations formation is considered. The "pure" backward and forward looking expectations hypotheses are rejected. As a final result, there exists the strong backward looking nature of expectations in the long run."
  • "Related postings on financial system

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    May 14, 2013
    * EIA - United Kingdom Country Analysis Brief

    The United Kingdom is the largest producer of oil and the second-largest producer of natural gas in the European Union

  • The United Kingdom (UK) is the largest producer of oil and the second-largest producer of natural gas in the European Union (EU). Following years of exports of both fuels, the UK became a net importer of natural gas and crude oil in 2004 and 2005, respectively. Production from UK oil and natural gas fields peaked in the late 1990s and has declined steadily over the past several years, as the discovery of new reserves and new production have not kept pace with the maturation of existing fields. The UK government, aware of the country's increasing reliance on imported fuels, has developed key energy policies to address the domestic production declines. These include: using enhanced recovery from current and maturing oil and gas fields, promoting energy efficiency, decreasing the use of fossil fuels and thus reliance on imports, promoting energy trade cooperation with Norway, and decarbonizing the UK economy by investing heavily in renewable energy. However, for the UK to decarbonize its economy, huge investments in the energy infrastructure are needed."

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    * Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023

    "If the current laws that govern federal taxes and spending do not change, the budget deficit will shrink this year to $642 billion, CBO estimates, the smallest shortfall since 2008. Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit this year—at 4.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—will be less than half as large as the shortfall in 2009, which was 10.1 percent of GDP. Because revenues, under current law, are projected to rise more rapidly than spending in the next two years, deficits in CBO’s baseline projections continue to shrink, falling to 2.1 percent of GDP by 2015. However, budget shortfalls are projected to increase later in the coming decade, reaching 3.5 percent of GDP in 2023, because of the pressures of an aging population, rising health care costs, an expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, and growing interest payments on federal debt. By comparison, the deficit averaged 3.1 percent of GDP over the past 40 years and 2.4 percent in the 40 years before fiscal year 2008, when the most recent recession began. During the next 10 years, both revenues and outlays are projected to be above their 40-year averages as a percentage of GDP."

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    * IRS IG - Inappropriate Criteria Were Used to Identify Tax-Exempt Organizations for Review

    Inappropriate Criteria Were Used to Identify Tax-Exempt Applications for Review, Report Date: 05/14/2013. Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration.

  • "The IRS used inappropriate criteria that identified for review Tea Party and other organizations applying for tax-exempt status based upon their names or policy positions instead of indications of potential political campaign intervention. Ineffective management: 1) allowed inappropriate criteria to be developed and stay in place for more than 18 months, 2) resulted in substantial delays certain applications, and 3) allowed unnecessary information requests to be issued. Although the processing of some applications with potential significant political campaign intervention was started soon after receipt, no work was completed on the majority of these applications for 13 months. This was due to delays in receiving assistance from the Exempt Organizations function Headquarters office. For the 296 total political campaign applications TIGTA reviewed as of December 17, 2012, 108 had been approved, 28 were withdrawn by the applicant, none had been denied, and 160 were open from 206 to 1,138 calendar days (some for more than three years and crossing two election cycles)."

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    * New York Fed: Household Debt and Credit Report

    "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Household Debt and Credit Report provides a quarterly snapshot of household trends in borrowing and indebtedness, including data about mortgages, student loans, credit cards, auto loans and delinquencies. The report aims to help community groups, small businesses, state and local governments and the public to better understand, monitor and respond to trends in borrowing and indebtedness at the household level."

  • PRESS RELEASE | INTERACTIVE CHARTS | FULL REPORT | LIBERTY STREET ECONOMICS BLOG

    • Permanent Link
    * New GAO Reports - Climate Change, Data Center Consolidation, Defense Infrastructure
    • Climate Change - Future Federal Adaptation Efforts Could Better Support Local Infrastructure Decision Makers, GAO-13-242, Apr 12, 2013
    • Data Center Consolidation - Strengthened Oversight Needed to Achieve Billions of Dollars in Savings, GAO-13-627T, May 14, 2013
    • Data Center Consolidation - Strengthened Oversight Needed to Achieve Cost Savings Goal, GAO-13-378, Apr 23, 2013
    • Defense Infrastructure - Communities Need Additional Guidance and Information to Improve Their Ability to Adjust to DOD Installation Closure or Growth, GAO-13-436, May 14, 2013
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    * FTC Issues Annual Financial Acts Enforcement Letter to CFPB

    News release: "The Federal Trade Commission has issued its annual letter to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on FTC enforcement and related activities regarding the Truth in Lending Act (TILA), Consumer Leasing Act (CLA), Electronic Fund Transfer Act (EFTA), and Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA). This year's letter also discusses the Dodd-Frank Act, and the Commission’s and CFPB’s memorandum of understanding that set forth a framework for coordinating certain law enforcement, rulemaking, and other activities. The letter notes that the FTC retains its authority to enforce the TILA, CLA, EFTA, and ECOA, among other things. The letter also addresses certain FTC initiatives regarding automobile financing advertising, payday lending, mortgage lending advertising, mobile payments, and separate FTC staff comments filed with the CFPB on integrating TILA and Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act disclosures and on general purpose reloadable cards."

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    * Creating a Safer Financial System: Will the Volcker, Vickers, and Liikanen Structural Measures Help?

    Creating a Safer Financial System: Will the Volcker, Vickers, and Liikanen Structural Measures Help? Vinãls, José; Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla; Surti,Ja; Narain,Aditya; Erbenova,Michaela; Chow, Julian. May 14, 2013

  • "The U.S., the U.K., and more recently, the E.U., have proposed policy measures directly targeting complexity and business structures of banks. Unlike other, price-based reforms (e.g., Basel 3 and G-SIFI surcharges), these proposals have been developed unilaterally with material differences in scope, design and implementation schedules. This may exacerbate cross-border regulatory arbitrage and put a further burden on consolidated supervision and cross-border resolution. This paper provides an analysis of the potential implications of implementing different structural policy measures. It proposes a pragmatic and coordinated approach to development of these policies to reduce risk of regulatory arbitrage and minimize unintended consequences. In doing so, it also aims to identify a set of common policy measures that countries could adopt to re-scope bank business models and corporate structures."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Fund Flows in Rational Markets

    Franzoni, Francesco A. and Schmalz, Martin C., Fund Flows in Rational Markets (May 12, 2013). Available at SSRN

  • "When investors are risk-averse, relative performance in downturns is more informative about managers' ability to generate utility for investors than relative performance in upturns. Rational investors thus reallocate more wealth between funds in response to downturn-performance than in response to upturn-performance, resulting in higher flow-performance sensitivities in downturns than in upturns. Combined with decreasing returns to scale, our model also explains why mutual fund returns are more persistent following market upturns than following market downturns. We identify the model by empirically testing its cross-sectional, difference-in-differences, and auxiliary predictions for the flow-performance sensitivity."

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    * A Description of the Immigrant Population - 2013 Update

    "CBO has updated the information in its June 2011 report A Description of the Immigrant Population: An Update. CBO updated 15 of the 20 exhibits contained in that report and added one new exhibit. Those exhibits that could be updated in their entirety have been, and a few others have been updated partially. In some instances, the period covered was altered to focus on the time span since the previous report. CBO’s updated exhibits regarding the immigrant population, along with a list of the agency’s recent reports and selected recent cost estimates for legislation related to immigration, accompany a letter to Congressman Paul Ryan, who requested the update. Five of the updated exhibits are highlighted below with captions describing some of the information they present."

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    May 13, 2013
    * Pew Survey - The New Sick Man of Europe: the European Union

    "Support for European economic integration – the 1957 raison d’etre for creating the European Economic Community, the European Union’s predecessor – is down over last year in five of the eight European Union countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center in 2013. Positive views of the European Union are at or near their low point in most EU nations, even among the young, the hope for the EU’s future. The favorability of the EU has fallen from a median of 60% in 2012 to 45% in 2013. And only in Germany does at least half the public back giving more power to Brussels to deal with the current economic crisis."

  • Related postings on financial system

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    * New GAO Reports: USDA, Defense Logistics, IRS Internal Controls, AIDS Relief
    • Agricultural Research - Two USDA Agencies Can Enhance Safeguards against Project Duplication and Strengthen Collaborative Planning, GAO-13-255, Apr 12, 2013
    • Defense Logistics - The Department of Defense's Report on Strategic Seaports Addressed All Congressionally Directed Elements, GAO-13-511R, May 13, 2013
    • Management Report - Improvements Are Needed to Enhance the Internal Revenue Service's Internal Controls, GAO-13-420R, May 13, 2013
    • President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief - Shift toward Partner-Country Treatment Programs Will Require Better Information on Results, GAO-13-460, Apr 12, 2013
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    * Improving the Financial Aid System to Increase College Completion

    Key Ideas from a Stakeholder Discussion at the 2013 Building a Grad Nation Summit - May 2013: "For a variety of reasons, students and families find it difficult to be smart consumers when it comes to choosing a college that provides a quality education at a reasonable cost. Many students end up saddled with enormous college debt. Others who avoid student loan burdens run out of resources before they can earn a degree. Still others from lower income backgrounds don’t apply to elite schools because they are unaware of financial aid packages that could make these colleges affordable, and some find the system so intimidating that they needlessly miss opportunities to attend any four-year college at all despite their academic qualifications. As the executive director of one nonprofit focused on helping more of America’s young people gain post-secondary education lamented, “We are crushing our students’ hopes and dreams with the current financial aid system.”

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    May 12, 2013
    * Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss

    Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss. Nature Climate Change (2013). doi:10.1038/nclimate1887.

  • "Climate change is expected to have significant influences on terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species. However, little is known about how mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could reduce biodiversity impacts, particularly amongst common and widespread species. Our global analysis of future climatic range change of common and widespread species shows that without mitigation, 57±6% of plants and 34±7% of animals are likely to lose ≥50% of their present climatic range by the 2080s. With mitigation, however, losses are reduced by 60% if emissions peak in 2016 or 40% if emissions peak in 2030. Thus, our analyses indicate that without mitigation, large range contractions can be expected even amongst common and widespread species, amounting to a substantial global reduction in biodiversity and ecosystem services by the end of this century. Prompt and stringent mitigation, on the other hand, could substantially reduce range losses and buy up to four decades for climate change adaptation."
  • Related postings on climate change

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    * Annual Energy Outlook 2013

    Annual Energy Outlook 2013: "The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2012) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2013 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies."

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    * Declining Migration Within the US: The Role of the Labor Market

    Declining Migration Within the US: The Role of the Labor Market, Raven Molloy, Christopher L. Smith, and Abigail Wozniak. April 2013, Finance and Economics Discussion Series - Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

  • "We examine explanations for the secular decline in interstate migration since the 1980s. After showing that demographic and socioeconomic factors can account for little of this decrease, we present evidence suggesting that it is related to a downward trend in labor market transitions—i.e. a decline in the fraction of workers moving from job to job, changing industry, and changing occupation—that occurred over the same period. We explore a number of reasons why these flows have diminished over time, including changes in the distribution of job opportunities across space, polarization in the labor market, concerns of dual-career households, and a strengthening of internal labor markets. We find little empirical support for all but the last of these hypotheses. Specifically, using data from three cohorts of the National Longitudinal Surveys spanning the 1970s to the 2000s, we find that wage gains associated with employer transitions have fallen, possibly signaling a growing role for internal labor markets in determining wages."

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    * Unintended Consequences of School Accountability Policies

    "Accountability policies linked to school performance may result in unintended consequences, such as inducing schools to engage in strategic classification of certain students to improve overall scores rather than make genuine improvements to the quality of education. This “gaming of the system” by schools in an influential model program is revealed in new analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In Unintended Consequences of School Accountability Policies: Evidence from Florida and Implications for New York, authors Rajashri Chakrabarti and Noah Schwartz examine how schools responded to the introduction of the Florida Opportunity Scholarship Program, an accountability program that made students from consistently low-performing schools eligible for vouchers enabling them to transfer to better ones. As a result, poor-performing schools faced the threat of losing students, and the corresponding state funding, if their accountability scores failed to improve. Using data from the Florida Department of Education, the authors find that schools faced with the voucher threat strategically classified low-performing students into categories that were excluded from the calculation of school accountability scores. This strategic sorting may have resulted in higher overall scores for schools, but did not necessarily lead to improved education for students, negating the intended goal of the accountability program."

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    * Chairman Bernake Speech - Monitoring the Financial System

    Chairman Ben S. Bernanke At the 49th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois - May 10, 2013 - Monitoring the Financial System

  • "The step-up in our monitoring is motivated importantly by a shift in financial regulation and supervision toward a more macroprudential, or systemic, approach, supplementing our traditional microprudential perspective focused primarily on the health of individual institutions and markets. In the spirit of this more systemic approach to oversight, the Dodd-Frank Act created the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which is comprised of the heads of a number of federal and state regulatory agencies. The FSOC has fostered greater interaction among financial regulatory agencies as well as a sense of common responsibility for overall financial stability. Council members regularly discuss risks to financial stability and produce an annual report, which reviews potential risks and recommends ways to mitigate them.1 The Federal Reserve's broad-based monitoring efforts have been essential for promoting a close and well-informed collaboration with other FSOC members."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Report - Declining Medicine Use and Costs: For Better or Worse?

    Declining Medicine Use and Costs: For Better or Worse? A Review of the Use of Medicines in the United States in 2012. IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, May 2013.

  • "In 2012, both the per capita use and cost of medicines declined. The “cost curve” for medicines – if not for other elements of the U.S. healthcare system – was bent. For some, this will be good news and a harbinger of more efficient use of our healthcare resources. For others, this decline may indicate under treatment and imbalance between prevention and care. Whichever the perspective, this year’s review of the utilization and cost of medicines – and their role in the overall healthcare system – brings forward important issues, especially as we sit on the eve of arguably the most transformative period in healthcare."

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    * Investigative report - chemicals from personal care products and cancer

    Did my wife's cosmetics give her breast cancer? Inside a regulatory disaster zone by John Wasik - Washington Monthly, May 6, 2013.

  • "The European Union bans nearly 1,400 chemicals from personal care products because they are carcinogenic, mutagenic, or toxic to reproduction. But in the United States, the Food and Drug Administration entrusts safety regulation of cosmetics to a private entity that is housed and funded by the industry's trade association. To date, this entity has found only eleven chemicals to be "unsafe for use in cosmetics." The FDA has no oversight of cosmetics products before they come on the market and, unlike the EU, leaves it to the cosmetics industry to determine which ingredients should be banned."
  • See also the Campaign for Safe Cosmetics and this news release - Toxic Chemicals in Cosmetics, Shampoos, Targeted by Congress

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    May 11, 2013
    * FOIA Request to DOJ Yields Expansively Redacted Response

    ABCNews: "The Department of Justice complied with the letter of the law and responded to a Freedom of Information Act request from the ACLU seeking insight into the Obama Administration’s policy on intercepting text messages from cell phones. But -- it didn’t release any actual information. Or even any words or letters. As one Reddit comment put it, “[the document is] so transparent it’s completely invisible.” Instead, the Justice Department released 15 pages that were entirely redacted, shaded over in heavy black from top to bottom. All that was visible is the subject of the memo: “Guidance for the Minimization of Text Messages over Dual-Function Cellular Telephones” It is all part of a larger legal battle between civil rights activists and the federal law enforcement about electronic communications. The ACLU has argued that current government surveillance practices on electronic communications violate citizens’ Fourth Amendment rights, which are meant to protect Americans from unlawful searches and seizures. With the FOIA request they were trying to determine if the FBI had properly complied with a 2010 appeals court decision that concerned when email providers must turn over messages to law enforcement and whether the guidelines apply to text messages."

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    * Study - Class of 2013 faces dim job prospects and depressed wages

    "The Great Recession and its aftermath have decimated job prospects and earnings for young workers, a new EPI briefing paper shows. In The Class of 2013: Young graduates still face dim job prospects, Heidi Shierholz, Natalie Sabadish and Nicholas Finio find that for the fifth consecutive year, new graduates will enter a profoundly weak labor market and will face high unemployment and underemployment rates and depressed wages. Because young workers always experience disproportionate increases in unemployment during downturns, young workers have confronted particularly high unemployment rates since the end of the Great Recession. For young high school graduates, the unemployment rate is 29.9 percent, compared with 17.5 percent in 2007, and the underemployment rate is 51.5 percent, compared with 29.4 percent in 2007. For college graduates, the unemployment rate is 8.8 percent, compared with 5.7 percent in 2007, and the underemployment rate is 18.3 percent, compared with 9.9 percent in 2007. (The definition of underemployment includes the officially unemployed, people who want a job and are available to work but have given up actively seeking work, and people who are working part-time but want full-time jobs.)"

  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Carbon Dioxide at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory reaches new milestone: Tops 400 ppm

    NOAA: "On May 9, the daily mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Mauna Loa, Hawaii, surpassed 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time since measurements began in 1958. Independent measurements made by both NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have been approaching this level during the past week. It marks an important milestone because Mauna Loa, as the oldest continuous carbon dioxide (CO2) measurement station in the world, is the primary global benchmark site for monitoring the increase of this potent heat-trapping gas. Carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere by fossil fuel burning and other human activities is the most significant greenhouse gas (GHG) contributing to climate change. Its concentration has increased every year since scientists started making measurements on the slopes of the Mauna Loa volcano more than five decades ago. The rate of increase has accelerated since the measurements started, from about 0.7 ppm per year in the late 1950s to 2.1 ppm per year during the last 10 years."

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    May 10, 2013
    * New GAO Reports - Higher Education, Medicaid, Superfund
    • Higher Education - Experts Cited a Range of Requirements as Burdensome, GAO-13-371, Apr 10, 2013
    • Medicaid - Alternative Measures Could Be Used to Allocate Funding More Equitably, GAO-13-434, May 10, 2013
    • Superfund - EPA Should Take Steps to Improve Its Management of Alternatives to Placing Sites on the National Priorities List, GAO-13-252, Apr 9, 2013
    Permanent Link
    * NSA Releases 2007 version - Untangling the Web, A Guide to Internet Research

    Unclassified and released on 4/19/2013 in response to a FOIA request by MuckRock and reported by Wired: request, Untangling the Web: A Guide to Internet Research has not been updated since 2007. It is 651 page document that on one hand references sites and sources that no longer exist, but on the other offers insights in techniques and leverage the deep web and techniques to obtain effective competitive intelligence information and data.

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    May 09, 2013
    * FCC- Expanding Access to In-Flight Broadband and Encouraging Innovation

    "By this Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (Notice), the Commission proposes to further increase the availability of broadband services onboard airplanes by establishing an air-ground mobile broadband service by which passengers aboard civil and government aircraft can connect to a full range of communications services while flying over the contiguous United States. Consumers increasingly demand ubiquitous broadband connectivity, even on airplanes. Demand continues to rise, with predictions that the number of aircraft offering broadband service will rise from approximately 3000 in 2012 to 15,000 by 2021.2 Establishment of air-ground mobile broadband service could help satisfy this demand. This air-ground mobile broadband service would operate in the 14.0-14.5 GHz band, on a secondary, non-interference basis with Fixed-Satellite Service (FSS) Earth-to-space communications. The key to such band sharing is spatial diversity, with FSS earth station antennas oriented to the south and above the horizon, air-ground mobile broadband base stations oriented to the north, and air-ground mobile broadband aircraft stations oriented below the horizon. Air-ground mobile broadband would be required
    to protect primary FSS in the band from harmful interference, and would be required to accommodate other Federal and non-Federal users in the band. We ground our proposals in this proceeding in part on the service proposed by Qualcomm, Inc. (Qualcomm) in a Petition for Rulemaking filed on July 7, 2011.3 We believe our proposal would significantly increase the amount of spectrum available for the provision of wireless broadband to airborne aircraft, helping to meet rising demand for such services.

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    * Executive Order -- Making Open and Machine Readable the New Default for Government Information

    "To promote continued job growth, Government efficiency, and the social good that can be gained from opening Government data to the public, the default state of new and modernized Government information resources shall be open and machine readable. Government information shall be managed as an asset throughout its life cycle to promote interoperability and openness, and, wherever possible and legally permissible, to ensure that data are released to the public in ways that make the data easy to find, accessible, and usable. In making this the new default state, executive departments and agencies (agencies) shall ensure that they safeguard individual privacy, confidentiality, and national security."

    Permanent Link
    * New GAO Reports; BPD, Federal Reserve Banks, Federal Retirement Processing, Missile Defense, FAA
    • Bureau of the Public Debt - Areas for Improvement in Information Systems Controls, GAO-13-416R, May 9, 2013
    • Federal Reserve Banks - Areas for Improvement in Information Systems Controls, GAO-13-419R, May 9, 2013
    • Federal Retirement Processing - OPM Is Pursuing Incremental Information Technology Improvements after Canceling a Modernization Plagued by Management Weaknesses, GAO-13-580T, May 9, 2013
    • Missile Defense - Opportunity to Refocus on Strengthening Acquisition Management, GAO-13-604T, May 9, 2013
    • Transportation - Preliminary Results of Work on FAA Facility Conditions and Workplace Safety, GAO-13-509R, May 9, 2013
    • Transportation Worker Identification Credential - Card Reader Pilot Results Are Unreliable; Security Benefits Should Be Reassessed, GAO-13-610T, May 9, 2013
    Permanent Link
    * OTC derivatives market activity in the second half of 2012

    "The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released today OTC derivatives statistics at end-December 2012. Developments in the latest data are highlighted in the Statistical release. Detailed breakdowns and time series data are available on the BIS website. Data at end-June 2013 will be released no later than 15 November 2013, in conjunction with the global results for the amounts outstanding part of the 2013 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity. Notional amounts for credit default swaps continued to decline during the second half of 2012, from $26.9 trillion at end-June 2012 to $25.1 trillion at end-December 2012. This brought the cumulative reduction since end-June 2011 to $7.3 trillion, partly due to the ongoing compression of contracts among dealers. In the second half of 2012, the reduction was concentrated among reporting dealers and in maturities over five years. Contracts with foreign counterparties dropped to $19.0 trillion at end-December 2012, whereas those with counterparties headquartered in reporting dealers' home country increased from $5.4 trillion at end-June 2012 to $6.1 trillion at end-December 2012."

  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Staying Ahead Of the Curve 2013: AARP Multicultural Work and Career Study

    "Staying Ahead of the Curve is AARP’s Multicultural Work and Career Study. These studies - performed in 2002, 2007, and 2013 - provide an in-depth look at workers ages 45-74: their reasons for working, perceived job security, differential treatment received because of age, their ideal work scenario, the challenges they face, their plans for retirement, and more. The entire set of 2013 results will be released in late April-early May 2013."

    Permanent Link
    * Student Loan Affordability Analysis of Public Input on Impact and Solutions

    CFPB: Student Loan Affordability Analysis of Public Input on Impact and Solutions, May 8, 2013

  • "The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act established a student loan ombudsman within the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to focus on student loans. Pursuant to the Act, the ombudsman shall conduct analysis on input from borrowers, prepare an annual report, and make appropriate recommendations to policymakers, including the Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the Secretary of Education. This report analyzes and discusses public comments submitted in response to a Request for Information Regarding an Initiative to Promote Student Loan Affordability published in the Federal Register in February 2013 (Docket ID: CFPB-2013-004)."
  • See also New AICPA Survey Reveals Effects, Regrets of Student Loan Debt and Sallie Mae Profit Boosts College Endowments And Pension Funds As Students Pay More

    • Permanent Link
    * Vitamin D and Calcium Supplementation to Prevent Fractures in Adults

    Vitamin D and Calcium Supplementation to Prevent Fractures in Adults: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

  • "Vitamin D and calcium are known to be important for strong, healthy bones. Both come from certain foods, and vitamin D is also produced in the body after exposure to sunlight. However, many Americans have lower intake or levels of these substances than recommended. This is concerning because low vitamin D and calcium levels put people at risk for osteoporosis and bone fractures. Fractures, especially hip fractures, are associated with pain, disability, loss of independence, and death. For that reason, many people take vitamin D and calcium supplements with the hope of preventing fractures. However, although vitamin D and calcium supplements are helpful for adults known to have osteoporosis, whether they are helpful in adults who do not have osteoporosis is not clear. It is important to note that the risk for osteoporosis and fractures is higher in women after menopause than in premenopausal women. This means that the same recommendations might not apply to both groups of women."

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    May 08, 2013
    * CRS - The U.S. Science and Engineering Workforce

    The U.S. Science and Engineering Workforce: Recent, Current, and Projected Employment, Wages, and Unemployment. John F. Sargent Jr., Specialist in Science and Technology Policy, May 6, 2013

  • "The adequacy of the U.S. science and engineering workforce has been an ongoing concern of Congress for more than 60 years. Scientists and engineers are widely believed to be essential to U.S. technological leadership, innovation, manufacturing, and services, and thus vital to U.S. economic strength, national defense, and other societal needs. Congress has enacted many programs to support the education and development of scientists and engineers. Congress has also undertaken broad efforts to improve science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) skills to prepare a greater number of students to pursue science and engineering (S&E) degrees. Some policymakers have sought to increase the number of foreign scientists and engineers working in the United States through changes in visa and immigration policies."

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    * Trading Activity and Price Transparency in the Inflation Swap Market

    "In a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, authors Michael J. Fleming and John R. Sporn use transaction data from derivatives dealers to shed light on the rapidly growing market for over-the-counter inflation swaps. Specifically, they analyze zero-coupon inflation swap trades involving major derivatives dealers for a three-month period in 2010. Their research reveals that the market was fairly inactive and exhibited concentrations of activity in certain tenors and trade sizes and among certain market participants. Nevertheless, the authors find that the market appears relatively liquid and transparent, with trade prices typically near publicly available midquotes and bid-ask spreads reasonably narrow. “This likely reflects the fact that the market is part of a larger market for transferring inflation risk that includes TIPS and nominal Treasury securities,” note the authors."

  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Census - Diversifying Electorate - Voting Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2012

    News release: "About two in three eligible blacks (66.2 percent) voted in the 2012 presidential election, higher than the 64.1 percent of non-Hispanic whites who did so, according to a U.S. Census Bureau report released today. This marks the first time that blacks have voted at a higher rate than whites since the Census Bureau started publishing statistics on voting by the eligible citizen population in 1996. These findings come from The Diversifying Electorate -- Voting Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2012 (and Other Recent Elections), which provides analysis of the likelihood of voting by demographic factors, such as race, Hispanic origin, sex, age and geography (specifically, census divisions). The report draws upon data from the November 2012 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement and looks at presidential elections back to 1996. Using the race definitions from 1968 and the total voting-age population, whites voted at higher rates than blacks in every presidential election between 1968, when the Census Bureau began publishing voting data by race, and 1992."

    Permanent Link
    * New GAO Reports - DOE, Homeland Security, IRS, SSA,
    • Department of Energy - Observations on Project and Program Cost Estimating in NNSA and the Office of Environmental Management, GAO-13-510T, May 8, 2013
    • Homeland Security - DHS and TSA Continue to Face Challenges Developing and Acquiring Screening Technologies, GAO-13-469T, May 8, 2013
    • Internal Revenue Service - Preliminary Observations on the Fiscal Year 2014 Budget Request, GAO-13-599R, May 3, 2013
    • Social Security Administration - Preliminary Observations on the Death Master File, GAO-13-574T, May 8, 2013
    • Transportation Worker Identification Credential Card Reader Pilot Results Are Unreliable; Security Benefits Need to Be Reassessed, GAO-13-198, May 8, 2013
    Permanent Link
    * Japanese American Service Committee Legacy Center Archives

    Japanese American Service Committee Legacy Center Archives: "Founded on August 30, 1946, the Japanese American Service Committee of Chicago originally served the needs of the Issei and Nisei (Japanese immigrants and their American-born children) who left World War II internment camps to resettle in Chicago and start new lives. As the needs of the community have changed over the years, so, too, have the programs and services provided by the JASC."

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    * Instances of Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1798-2013

    Instances of Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1798-2013. Barbara Salazar Torreon, Information Research Specialist, May 3, 2013

  • This report lists hundreds of instances in which the United States has used its Armed Forces abroad in situations of military conflict or potential conflict or for other than normal peacetime purposes. It was compiled in part from various older lists and is intended primarily to provide a rough survey of past U.S. military ventures abroad, without reference to the magnitude of the given instance noted. The listing often contains references, especially from 1980 forward, to continuing military deployments, especially U.S. military participation in multinational operations associated with NATO or the United Nations. Most of these post-1980 instances are summaries based on presidential reports to Congress related to the War Powers Resolution. A comprehensive commentary regarding any of the instances listed is not undertaken here."

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    May 07, 2013
    * DOD Releases Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Strategy

    News release: "Today, the Department of Defense released the fiscal 2012 Annual Report on Sexual Assault in the Military and announcing a series of actions to prevent and respond to sexual assault in the armed forces. Annually, as required by the Ike Skelton National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2011, the department released Fiscal Year 2012 Annual Report on Sexual Assault in the Military. To date, this is the ninth report DoD has issued. In fiscal year 2012, there were a total of 3,374 reports of sexual assault involving service members as victims or subjects, an increase from the 3,192 reports received in fiscal 2011. These reports involved offenses ranging from abusive sexual contact to rape."

    Permanent Link
    * New GAO Reports - Capital Purchase Program,
    • Capital Purchase Program - Status of the Program and Financial Health of Remaining Participants, GAO-13-458, May 7, 2013
    • Pakistan - Reporting on Visa Delays That Disrupt U.S. Assistance Could Be Improved, GAO-13-427, May 7, 2013
    • VA Construction - Additional Actions Needed to Decrease Delays and Lower Costs of Major Medical Facility Projects, GAO-13-556T, May 7, 2013
    Permanent Link
    * BJS - Firearm Violence, 1993-2011

    Michael Planty, Ph.D., Jennifer L. Truman, Ph.D. May 7, 2013. NCJ 241730. "Presents trends on the number and rate of fatal and nonfatal firearm violence from 1993 to 2011. The report examines incident and victim demographic characteristics of firearm violence, including the type of firearm used; victim's race, age, and sex; and incident location. The report also examines changes over time in the percentages of nonfatal firearm crimes by injury, reporting to the police, and the use of firearms in self-defense. Information on homicide was obtained primarily from the Centers for Disease Control's (CDC) National Vital Statistics System. Nonfatal firearm violence data are from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which collects information on nonfatal crimes reported and not reported to the police against persons age 12 or older from a nationally representative sample of U.S. households.Highlights:

    • Firearm-related homicides declined 39%, from 18,253 in 1993 to 11,101 in 2011.
    • Nonfatal firearm crimes declined 69%, from 1.5 million victimizations in 1993 to 467,300 victimizations in 2011.
    • Firearm violence accounted for about 70% of all homicides and less than 10% of all nonfatal violent crime from 1993 to 2011.
    • From 1993 to 2011, about 70% to 80% of firearm homicides and 90% of nonfatal firearm victimizations were committed with a handgun.

    Permanent Link
    * Copyright in the Digital Era: Building Evidence for Policy

    "Over the course of several decades, copyright protection has been expanded and extended through legislative changes occasioned by national and international developments. The content and technology industries affected by copyright and its exceptions, and in some cases balancing the two, have become increasingly important as sources of economic growth, relatively high-paying jobs, and exports. Since the expansion of digital technology in the mid-1990s, they have undergone a technological revolution that has disrupted long-established modes of creating, distributing, and using works ranging from literature and news to film and music to scientific publications and computer software. In the United States and internationally, these disruptive changes have given rise to a strident debate over copyright's proper scope and terms and means of its enforcement--a debate between those who believe the digital revolution is progressively undermining the copyright protection essential to encourage the funding, creation, and distribution of new works and those who believe that enhancements to copyright are inhibiting technological innovation and free expression. Copyright in the Digital Era: Building Evidence for Policy examines a range of questions regarding copyright policy by using a variety of methods, such as case studies, international and sectoral comparisons, and experiments and surveys. This report is especially critical in light of digital age developments that may, for example, change the incentive calculus for various actors in the copyright system, impact the costs of voluntary copyright transactions, pose new enforcement challenges, and change the optimal balance between copyright protection and exceptions."

    Permanent Link
    * Assessing Risks to Endangered and Threatened Species from Pesticides

    "The US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) are responsible for protecting species that are listed as endangered or threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and for protecting habitats that are critical for their survival. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for registering or reregistering pesticides under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and must ensure that pesticide use does not cause any unreasonable adverse effects on the environment, which is interpreted to include listed species and their critical habitats. The agencies have developed their own approaches to evaluating environmental risk, and their approaches differ because their legal mandates, responsibilities, institutional cultures, and expertise differ. Over the years, the agencies have tried to resolve their differences but have been unsuccessful in reaching a consensus regarding their assessment approaches.
    As a result, FWS, NMFS, EPA, and the US Department of Agriculture asked the National Research Council (NRC) to examine scientific and technical issues related to determining risks posed to listed species by pesticides. Specifically, the NRC was asked to evaluate methods for identifying the best scientific data available; to evaluate approaches for developing modeling assumptions; to identify authoritative geospatial information that might be used in risk assessments; to review approaches for characterizing sublethal, indirect, and cumulative effects; to assess the scientific information available for estimating effects of mixtures and inert ingredients; and to consider the use of uncertainty factors to account for gaps in data. Assessing Risks to Endangered and Threatened Species from Pesticides, which was prepared by the NRC Committee on Ecological Risk Assessment under FIFRA and ESA, is the response to that request."

    Permanent Link
    May 06, 2013
    * Revolutionary Secrets: Cryptology in the American Revolution

    Revolutionary Secrets: Cryptology in the American Revolution, Jennifer Wilcox, Center for Cryptologic History, National Security Agency, 2012.

    Permanent Link
    * Uncertainty, Liquidity Hoarding, and Financial Crises

    Tanju Yorulmazer: "One of the most interesting phenomena marking the recent financial crisis was the disruptions in the interbank market, where banks borrow and lend reserves to each other. This post draws upon my paper with Douglas Gale, Liquidity Hoarding, to discuss this practice by banks during times of increased uncertainty about future liquidity needs and its consequences for the efficient transfer of liquidity in the interbank market."

    Permanent Link
    * New GAO Reports - Federal Employees' Compensation Act,
    • Federal Employees' Compensation Act - Case Examples Illustrate Vulnerabilities That Could Result in Improper Payments or Overlapping Benefits, GAO-13-386, Apr 3, 2013
    • VA Construction - Additional Actions Needed to Decrease Delays and Lower Costs of Major Medical-Facility Projects, GAO-13-302, Apr 4, 2013
    Permanent Link
    * Social Security Report Calls for Increased Attention to the Death Master File

    "Today, Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Carper (D-Del.), Ranking Member Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), Financial and Contracting Oversight Subcommittee Chairwoman Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Ranking Member Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) highlighted a report detailing troublesome yet preventable errors in the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) master database of deceased individuals. The SSA Office of the Inspector General (OIG) report, Title XVI Deceased Recipients Who Do Not Have Death Information on the Numident, found that over 180,000 deceased individuals had not been added to the Death Master File, the comprehensive database of individuals maintained by SSA, even though these same individuals had been reported as deceased to the SSA Supplemental Security Records. Errors of this type put at risk to waste and fraud billions of dollars in federal and state beneficiary expenditures each year. As part of its oversight on federal financial management, the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs committee will hold a hearing on improper payments, including those made to deceased individuals, this Wednesday, May 8 at 10 AM."

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    * Brookings - Should the United States Have 2.2 Million More Jobs?

    Michael Greenstone and Adam Looney, The Hamilton Project | May 3, 2013 - Should the United States Have 2.2 Million More Jobs?

  • "In this month’s employment analysis, The Hamilton Project examines the trajectory of public-sector employment since the onset of the Great Recession and contrasts this decline to periods of economic recovery after previous recessions. We find that the last several years’ policy choices are starkly different from those following previous recessions. Specifically, there are 2.2 million fewer jobs today, relative to what would have occurred with the policy response typical of the five preceding recessions. We also continue to explore the “jobs gap” and find that the country needs to add about 10.0 million jobs to return to pre-recession employment levels."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 2012

    DOD - Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 2012. A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012.

  • "Section 1236 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012, Public Law 112-81, provides that the Secretary of Defense shall submit a report "in both classified and unclassified form, on the current and future military power of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea" (DPRK). The report shall address an assessment of the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, the goals and factors shaping North Korean security strategy and military strategy, trends in North Korean security, an assessment of North Korea's regional security objectives, including an assessment of the North Korean military's capabilities, developments in North Korean military doctrine and training, an assessment of North Korea's proliferation activities, and other military security developments." [Greta E. Marlatt]
  • News release - DOD Report: North Korea Still Critical U.S. Security Threat, by Cheryl Pellerin, American Forces Press Service

    • Permanent Link
    * The April 2013 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

    "The April 2013 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices addressed changes in the supply of, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months. This summary is based on responses from 68 domestic banks and 21 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. In the April survey, domestic banks, on balance, reported having eased their lending standards and having experienced stronger demand in several loan categories over the past three months. The survey results generally indicated that banks’ policies regarding lending to businesses eased over the past three months and demand increased, on balance. In particular, a relatively large fraction of domestic respondents reported having eased standards on C&I loans, and moderate to large net fractions of such respondents reportedly eased many terms on C&I loans to firms of all sizes. Banks that eased their C&I lending policies generally cited increased competition for such loans as an important reason for having done so."

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    May 05, 2013
    * Public Service Recognition Week: May 5–11, 2013

    "Honoring Our Public Servants. Connecting Citizens with Their Government. May 5–11, 2013. Celebrated the first week of May since 1985, Public Service Recognition Week (PSRW) is time set aside to honor the men and women who serve our nation as federal, state, county and local government employees and ensure that our government is the best in the world. Throughout the country, mayors, governors, agency leaders, communities and public service organizations participate in PSRW by issuing proclamations; hosting award ceremonies and special tribute events; and delivering messages about the value of public service. PSRW is organized annually by the Public Employees Roundtable (PER) and its member organizations."

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    * Article - Signs of JIBAR Manipulation?

    De Jager, Phillip and Parsons, Shaun, Signs of JIBAR Manipulation? (February 26, 2013). Available at SSRN

  • "The JSE [Johannesburg Stock Exchange] has recently come under pressure in the financial media to defend the integrity of the Johannesburg Interbank Agreed Rate (JIBAR) in the midst of the revelations of the long-term and systematic manipulation of the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) in the United Kingdom. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent to which there may be anomalies in the historical JIBAR that merit further investigation. The paper finds that there is insufficient publicly available data from the JSE to test for profit-seeking manipulation by individual banks. In considering the available data, discrepancies were identified in the historic JIBAR obtained from different sources, and inconsistencies were noted in the types of data used to calculate the JSE zero coupon yield curves. Based on the available data, no evidence was found of “day of the month” type manipulation of JIBAR. In seeking indications of possible “lowballing” activity, the 3 month JIBAR behaved very similarly to the 3 month British pound LIBOR. In contrast, over the height of the financial crisis, the 1 month JIBAR behaved in ways that cannot be readily explained. The anomalies in this rate support the need for further investigation."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Sunlight Foundation: Municipal Lobbying Data Guidebook

    Sunlight Foundation - Municipal Lobbying Data Guidebook

  • "Why do we need access to lobbying data? Information that is critical to understanding access to power and how that access is being used should be made available to the public with as few restrictions as possible. That means making information available in searchable, sortable and machine-readable format, but also taking into consideration the kinds of information that should be disclosed (the difference between lobbying registration, say, and lobbying activity). For lobbying disclosure to live up to its full potential, the transparency it creates needs to be proportional to the influence that it seeks to influence, with real-time reporting and substantive disclosure empowering public scrutiny of political power at work. The goal of disclosing this data isn't to make life more difficult for the lobbyists, but to ensure that citizens have the ability to track influence -- to glean the context critical to understanding political decision-making and legislation. Meaningful, complete, open lobbying data is vital to creating accountable government. As the state of municipal lobbying data collection and disclosure varies enormously from one city or county to the next, the Sunlight Foundation has created this guide to help local policymakers and advocates create stronger lobbying disclosure."

    • Permanent Link
    May 04, 2013
    * Consumer Reports - Arsenic in your food

    Arsenic in your food - Our findings show a real need for federal standards for this toxin, Consumer Reports magazine: November 2012

  • "Organic rice baby cereal, rice breakfast cereals, brown rice, white rice—new tests by Consumer Reports have found that those and other types of rice products on grocery shelves contain arsenic, many at worrisome levels... Though rice isn’t the only dietary source of arsenic—some vegetables, fruits, and even water can harbor it—the Environmental Protection Agency assumes there is actually no “safe” level of exposure to inorganic arsenic. No federal limit exists for arsenic in most foods, but the standard for drinking water is 10 parts per billion (ppb). Keep in mind: That level is twice the 5 ppb that the EPA originally proposed and that New Jersey actually established. Using the 5-ppb standard in our study, we found that a single serving of some rices could give an average adult almost one and a half times the inorganic arsenic he or she would get from a whole day’s consumption of water, about 1 liter."

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    • May 03, 2013
    * Recent government statistics reflect employment rate still below 2008 level

    Mark Gongloff, Huffingtonpost.com: "The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday said that employers added 165,000 jobs to non-farm payrolls in April, following healthy gains of 470,000 in February and March. Employers have added about 6.1 million jobs since the job market bottomed in February 2010. But we are still about 2.7 million jobs shy of peak employment, set back in January 2008, making this the slowest job-market recovery since World War II. And we are about 4 million jobs shy of where we should be, given the historical relationship between unemployment benefits and the number of unemployed people -- as you can see in the chart. The blue line is the level of jobless claims. The red line is the number of people unemployed. The red line is much higher than it should be."

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    * Speech by Speech by Governor Tarullo on evaluating progress in regulatory reforms to promote financial stability

    Governor Daniel K. Tarullo At the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., May 3, 2013. Evaluating Progress in Regulatory Reforms to Promote Financial Stability

  • "Despite this considerable progress, we have not yet adequately addressed all the vulnerabilities that developed in our financial system in the decades preceding the crisis. Most importantly, relatively little has been done to change the structure of wholesale funding markets so as to make them less susceptible to damaging runs. It is true that some of the clearly risky forms of wholesale funding that existed before the crisis, such as the infamous SIVs, have disappeared or substantially contracted. But significant continuing vulnerability remains, particularly in those funding channels that can be grouped under the heading of securities financing transactions (SFTs). Repo, reverse repo, securities lending and borrowing, and securities margin lending are part of the healthy functioning of the securities market. But, in the absence of sensible regulation, they are also potentially associated with the dynamic I described earlier of exogenous shocks to asset values leading to an adverse feedback loop of mark-to-market losses, margin calls, and fire sales. Indeed, some have argued that this dynamic is exacerbated by a "maturity rat race," in which each creditor acts to shorten the maturity of its lending so as to facilitate quick and easy flight, and in which creditors pay relatively little attention to the recovery value of the underlying assets. With respect to the too-big-to-fail problem, as I noted earlier, actual capital levels are substantially higher than before the crisis, and requirements to extend and maintain higher levels of capital are on the way. The regularization and refinement of rigorous stress testing may be the single most important supervisory improvement to strengthen the resilience of large institutions. The creation of orderly liquidation authority and the process of resolution planning advance prospects for increasing market discipline. But questions remain as to whether all this is enough to contain the problem. The enduring potential fragility of a financial system substantially dependent on short-term wholesale funding is especially relevant in considering the impact of severe stress or failure at the very large institutions with very large amounts of such funding."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * CRS - U.S. Household Savings for Retirement in 2010

    U.S. Household Savings for Retirement in 2010, John J. Topoleski, Analyst in Income Security, April 30, 2013

  • "Whether households have sufficient savings from which to ensure adequate income throughout retirement is a concern of households and, therefore, policymakers. The retirement income landscape has been changing over the past few decades. Although most households are eligible to receive Social Security benefits in retirement, over the past 30 years, the types of non-Social Security sources of retirement income have been changing. About half of the U.S. workforce is covered by an employer-sponsored pension plan. An increasing number of employers offer defined contributions (DC) pension plans (i.e., tax-advantaged accounts in which employee, and sometimes employer, contributions accrue investment returns) in lieu of traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plans (i.e., monthly payments to a retiree by a former employer). This shift in the nature of employer-sponsored pensions places more responsibility on workers to financially prepare for their own retirement. Households also save for retirement using Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), into which contributions, up to a specified limit, are tax-deductible for individuals without an employer-sponsored pension or who have an employer-sponsored pension and who earn less than specified limits."

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    * CRS - Counting Regulations: An Overview of Rulemaking

    Counting Regulations: An Overview of Rulemaking, Types of Federal Regulations, and Pages in the Federal Register. Maeve P. Carey, Analyst in Government Organization and Management. May 1, 2013

  • Federal rulemaking is an important mechanism through which the federal government implements policy. Federal agencies issue regulations pursuant to statutory authority granted by Congress. Therefore, Congress may have an interest in performing oversight of those regulations. Measuring federal regulatory activity can be a useful way for Congress to conduct that oversight. The number of federal rules issued annually and the total number of pages in the Federal Register are often referred to as measures of the total federal regulatory burden. Certain methods of quantifying regulatory activity, however, may provide an imperfect portrayal of the total federal rulemaking burden. For example, the number of final rules published each year is generally in the range of 2,500-4,500, according to the Government Accountability Office (GAO). Some of those rules have a large effect on the economy, and others have a significant legal and/or policy effect, even if the costs and benefits are minimal. On the other hand, many federal rules are routine in nature and impose minimal regulatory burden, if any."

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    May 02, 2013
    * Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary, March 2013

    News release: "Unemployment rates were lower in March than a year earlier in 306 of the 372 metropolitan areas, higher in 44 areas, and unchanged in 22 areas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Seven areas had jobless rates of at least 15.0 percent, and 33 areas had rates of less than 5.0 percent. Two hundred eighty-seven metropolitan areas had over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment, 80 had decreases, and 5 had no change. The national unemployment rate in March was 7.6 percent, not seasonally adjusted, down from 8.4 percent a year earlier. In March, 44 metropolitan areas had jobless rates of at least 10.0 percent, down from 63 areas a year earlier, while 157 areas had rates below 7.0 percent, up from 113 areas in March 2012."

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    * Suicide Among Adults Aged 35–64 Years — United States, 1999–2010

    Suicide Among Adults Aged 35–64 Years — United States, 1999–2010. Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report. May 3, 2013 /Vol. 62/ No. 17

  • "Traditionally, suicide prevention efforts have been focused mostly on youths and older adults, but recent evidence suggests that there have been substantial increases in suicide rates among middle-aged adults in the United States. To investigate trends in suicide rates among adults aged 35–64 years, CDC analyzed National Vital Statistics System mortality data from 1999–2010. This report summarizes the results of that analysis."

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    * Climate Central Report - Sewage Overflows From Hurricane Sandy

    Sewage Overflows From Hurricane Sandy. Alyson Kenward, PhD, Daniel Yawitz, Urooj Raja.

  • "Six months after Sandy, data from the eight hardest hit states shows that 11 billion gallons of untreated and partially treated sewage flowed into rivers, bays, canals, and in some cases, city streets, largely as a result of record storm-surge flooding that swamped the region’s major sewage treatment facilities. To put that in perspective, 11 billion gallons is equal to New York’s Central Park stacked 41 feet high with sewage, or more than 50 times the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The vast majority of that sewage flowed into the waters of New York City and northern New Jersey in the days and weeks during and after the storm."

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    • * CIO Insights: Leading Innovation in a Time of Change

    "Each year TechAmerica and Grant Thornton LLP survey federal Chief Information Officers (CIO) on issues most affecting the community. CIOs had a lot to say about budget, policy and governance, acquisition, human capital, mobility, and cybersecurity...The budget is the top concern of CIOs. While budget cuts drive CIOs to improve efficiency and spark innovation, they also hinder investments in modern technologies needed to support the mission. Today, more than 76% of IT spending goes to operations and maintenance (O&M) and infrastructure."

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    * Annual Report to Congress on the Status of U.S. Fisheries

    "The 2012 Annual Report on the Status of U.S. Fisheries highlights the progress that collectively, NOAA Fisheries, the regional fishery management councils, and our stakeholders have made to end overfishing and rebuild stocks. The report documents additional progress towards long-term economic sustainability of our nation’s fisheries. Recent economic data illustrates that the overall seafood industry and recreational fishing continue to generate significant sales impacts and income impacts while also supporting jobs."

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    * Report - Sticky Ages: Why Is Age 65 Still a Retirement Peak?

    Sticky Ages: Why Is Age 65 Still a Retirement Peak? by Norma B. Coe, Mashfiqur Khanand, Matthew S. Rutledge, WP#2013-2. January 2013. Boston College, Center for Retirement Research

  • "When Social Security’s Full Retirement Age (FRA) increased to age 66 for recent retirees, the peak retirement age increased with it. However, a large share of people continue to claim their Social Security benefits at age 65. This paper explores two potential explanations for the “stickiness” of age 65 as a claiming age: Medicare eligibility and workers’ lack of knowledge about their future Social Security benefits. First, we analyze the impact of Medicare eligibility by comparing two groups – one has an FRA of exactly 65; the other, between age 65 and 2 months and age 66. We find that the group with later FRAs who do not have access to retiree health benefits through their employer are more likely to claim Social Security at age 65. We interpret this finding as evidence that Medicare eligibility persuades more people to retire, because they can begin receiving federal health coverage. Individuals without access to retiree health insurance at work are 7.5 percentage points more likely to retire soon after their 65th birthdays and are 5.8 percentage points less likely to delay retirement until the FRA than those with that insurance. This result fits into extensive research showing that access to health insurance is an important component of the retirement decision. On the question of whether misinformation about Social Security benefits may drive individuals to claim at age 65, we find that some individuals are unable to accurately forecast their retirement benefits. However, our analysis suggests that there is no relationship between this confusion and the age 65 peak for claiming Social Security."

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    • * Census - About 6 in 10 Recent Moms in Their Early 20s are Unmarried

    News release: "As of 2011, 62 percent of women age 20 to 24 who gave birth in the previous 12 months were unmarried, according to a report released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. This compares with 17 percent among women age 35 to 39. The information comes from Social and Economic Characteristics of Currently Unmarried Women with a Recent Birth: 2011, an American Community Survey report. The analysis is based on separate survey questions on whether women have given birth to any children in the past 12 months and what their marital status is. The statistics in the report are presented at the national and state levels, with a separate table and map containing metropolitan area data."

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    * Alleged Improprieties Regarding the Canine Program at the Dept. of Energy's Y-12 Site

    "The Department of Energy's (Department) Canine Program is an essential component of its efforts to identify and deter potential threats to infrastructure and personnel. At the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) and other nuclear material hosting sites in the Department, canines are used to detect explosives, narcotics, concealed humans and also track human presence at facilities that store, handle and maintain special nuclear material. As outlined in Department directives and adopted as best practices by law enforcement and security professionals, the performance of canine teams depends on continual reinforcement of skills through realistic performance testing, proficiency training and annual certifications. As required by their contract with the Department, canine services contractors are required to develop and implement a canine training and certification program that embodies these principles. Canine services at Y-12 were obtained through a 5-year contract that is valued at almost $15 million. Subsequently, in 2012, we received allegations that the Department's Y-12 site: (1) possibly "rigged" testing for canine teams, and (2) worked canines beyond their physical capability to perform effectively. Because of conflicting testimony and a lack of supporting documentation, we could not conclusively determine whether there were instances of "rigged" testing. However, our inspection identified a number of issues that led us to question the efficacy of the processes used to test, train and certify canines at Y-12. For instance, performance testing, training and annual certifications of canine teams were not properly conducted and/or documented. We did substantiate the allegation that handlers had worked canines beyond their physical capability to perform assigned duties. Deficiencies associated with the management of a multi-layered contract structure for furnishing canine services at the Y-12 site contributed to the problems we observed. Finally, Federal officials and various contractor officials acknowledged that they had not reviewed the training and certification records for the canine teams because the Canine Program was not identified as a high-risk security area based on the Department's graded approach for risk determination."

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    May 01, 2013
    * GPO’S Federal Digital System Reaches 500 Million Retrievals

    Gary Somerset: "The U.S. Government Printing Office’s (GPO) Federal Digital System (FDsys) has achieved the milestone of 500 million document retrievals. FDsys is a one-stop site for authentic, published information on the three branches of the Federal Government. Retrievals are measured by the number of times content is viewed or downloaded from FDsys. GPO launched FDsys in January 2009 and since that time it has expanded to include 800 thousand searchable titles. Examples of content found on FDsys include: the post-President Kennedy’s assassination tape recordings, President Nixon’s Watergate grand jury testimony, the Budget of the U.S. Government, the Congressional Record, Federal Register, Code of Federal Regulations, and congressional bills, hearings, and reports. GPO is continually adding content and working with agencies on new collection opportunities."

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    * World Report on Child Labour

    World Report on Child Labour: Economic vulnerability, social protection and the fight against child labour - How can we reduce child labour in the less favourable circumstances of a global economic slowdown? [30 April 2013]

  • "This new report is the first in a series to be published annually by the ILO’s International Programme on the Elimination of Child Labour. It brings together research on child labour and social protection, identifying policies that are designed to achieve multiple social goals. It discusses the role of poverty and economic shocks in rendering households vulnerable to child labour and considers the impact on child labour of cash transfers, public employment programmes, social insurance and other social protection initiatives as they have been implemented around the world. The report distils a broad range of research in economic and social policy and should be of interest to those looking for ways to combat poverty in the present and reduce its burden on the next generation."

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    * Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues

    Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues, Amy F. Woolf, Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy. April 26, 2013

  • Prompt global strike (PGS) would allow the United States to strike targets anywhere on Earth with conventional weapons in as little as an hour. This capability may bolster U.S. efforts to deter and defeat adversaries by allowing the United States to attack high-value targets or “fleeting targets” at the start of or during a conflict. Congress has generally supported the PGS mission, but it has restricted funding and suggested some changes in funding for specific programs. Many analysts believe that the United States should use long-range ballistic missiles with conventional warheads for the PGS mission. These would not substitute for nuclear weapons in the U.S. war plan but would provide a “niche” capability, with a small number of weapons directed against select, critical targets. Some analysts, however, have raised concerns about the possibility that U.S. adversaries might misinterpret the launch of a missile with conventional warheads and conclude that the missiles carry nuclear weapons. DOD is considering a number of systems that might provide the United States with long-range strike capabilities."

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    * New GAO Reports - Capitol Preservation Fund, CMS, Medicaid
    • Capitol Preservation Fund - Audit of Fiscal Years 2011 and 2012 Transactions, GAO-13-489R, May 1, 2013
    • CMS - Activities, Staffing, and Funding for the Center for Strategic Planning, GAO-13-377R, Apr 1, 2013
    • Medicaid - Enhancements Needed for Improper Payments Reporting and Related Corrective Action Monitoring, GAO-13-229, Mar 29, 2013
    • Senate Preservation Fund, Audit of Fiscal Years 2011 and 2012, Transactions, GAO-13-490R, May 1, 2013
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    * Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

    News release: "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown some improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable."

  • WSJ - Parsing the Fed: How the Statement Changed
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Mountaintop Mining: Background on Current Controversies

    Mountaintop Mining: Background on Current Controversies, Claudia Copeland. Specialist in Resources and Environmental Policy, April 29, 2013

  • "Mountaintop removal mining involves removing the top of a mountain in order to recover the coal seams contained there. This practice occurs in six Appalachian states (Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, and Ohio). It creates an immense quantity of excess spoil (dirt and rock that previously composed the mountaintop), which is typically placed in valley fills on the sides of the former mountains, burying streams that flow through the valleys. Mountaintop mining is regulated under several laws, including the Clean Water Act (CWA) and the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA). Critics say that, as a result of valley fills from mountaintop mining, stream water quality and the aquatic and wildlife habitat that streams support are destroyed by tons of rocks and dirt. The mining industry argues that mountaintop mining is essential to conducting surface coal mining in the Appalachian region and that it would not be economically feasible there if operators were barred from using valleys for the disposal of mining overburden. Critics have used litigation to challenge the practice. In a number of cases, environmental groups have been successful at the federal district court level in challenging permits for mountaintop mining projects, only to be later overturned on appeal. Nonetheless, the criticisms also have prompted some regulatory changes."

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    * CRS - Iraq: Politics, Governance, and Human Rights

    Iraq: Politics, Governance, and Human Rights. Kenneth Katzman, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, April 26, 2013

  • "Ten years after the March 19, 2003 U.S. military intervention to oust Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, increasingly violent sectarian divisions are undermining the fragile stability left in place after the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will collapse. Sunni Arab Muslims, who resent Shiite political domination, are in increasingly open revolt against the government of Prime Minister Nuri alMaliki. The revolt represents an escalation of the Sunni demonstrations that began in December 2012. Iraq’s Kurds are increasingly aligned with the Sunnis, based on their own disputes with Maliki over territorial, political, and economic issues. The Shiite faction of Moqtada Al Sadr has been leaning to the Sunnis and Kurds, and could hold the key to Maliki’s political survival. Adding to the schisms is the physical incapacity of President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd who has served as a key mediator, who suffered a stroke in mid-December 2012 and remains outside Iraq. The rifts have impinged on provincial elections on April 20, 2013, and will likely affect national elections for a new parliament and government in 2014. Maliki is expected to seek to retain his post in that vote."

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    * Pew - A Demographic Portrait of Mexican-Origin Hispanics in the United States

    A Demographic Portrait of Mexican-Origin Hispanics in the United States, by Ana Gonzalez-Barrera and Mark Hugo Lopez, May 1, 2013

  • "A record 33.7 million Hispanics of Mexican origin resided in the United States in 2012, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data by Pew Research Center. This estimate includes 11.4 million immigrants born in Mexico and 22.3 million born in the U.S. who self-identified as Hispanics of Mexican origin. Mexicans are by far the largest Hispanic origin population in the U.S., accounting for nearly two-thirds (64%) of the U.S. Hispanic population in 2012. Hispanics of Mexican origin are also a significant portion of the U.S. population, accounting for 11% overall."

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    * Google Transparency Report

    "Transparency is a core value at Google. As a company we feel it is our responsibility to ensure that we maximize transparency around the flow of information related to our tools and services. We believe that more information means more choice, more freedom and ultimately more power for the individual. In this report, we disclose:

    • Real-time and historical traffic to Google services around the world;
    • Numbers of removal requests we receive from copyright owners or governments;
    • Numbers of user data requests we receive from government agencies and courts.
    • To learn more about the laws governing our disclosure of user data and reforms to those laws that we think are important, visit http://digitaldueprocess.org/. We hope this report will shine some light on the appropriate scope and authority of government requests to obtain user data around the globe."

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    April 30, 2013
    * New GAO Reports - National Preparedness, Security Force Assistance
    • National Preparedness - Efforts to Address the Medical Needs of Children in a Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear Incident, GAO-13-438, Apr 30, 2013: "HHS faces a variety of economic, regulatory, scientific, and ethical challenges in developing and acquiring pediatric CBRN medical countermeasures. High costs and the high risk of failure associated with testing and research of pharmaceutical products on children, difficulties in meeting regulatory requirements for approving CBRN countermeasures, and scientific and ethical obstacles to safely evaluating countermeasures for children all pose challenges to developing pediatric countermeasures."
    • Security Force Assistance - More Detailed Planning and Improved Access to Information Needed to Guide Efforts of Advisor Teams in Afghanistan, GAO-13-381, Apr 30, 2013: "Officials from several teams stated that the guidance they received lacked specificity regarding desired end states for the development of their ANSF counterpart units. Without a more structured approach with clear linkages between end states, objectives, and milestones that are in support of broad goals for ANSF units, theater commanders cannot be assured that the advisor team activities are making progress toward these goals."
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    * Central bank finances (BIS Paper)

    Central bank finances, by David Archer and Paul Moser-Boehm. BIS Papers No 71, April 2013

  • This paper looks at the relevance of a central bank's own finances for its policy work. Some central banks are exposed to significant financial risks, partly due to the environment in which they operate, and partly due to the nature of policy actions. While financial exposures and losses do not hamper central banks' operational capabilities, they may weaken the effectiveness of central bank policy transmission. Against this backdrop, the paper analyses the determinants of a central bank's financial position and the possible implications of insufficient financial resources for policymaking. It also provides a conceptual framework for considering the question of whether central banks have sufficient financial resources."

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    * Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) Reform

    CRS - Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) Reform: An Overview of Proposals to Reduce the Growth in SSDI Rolls, William R. Morton, Research Associate. April 29, 2013

  • "Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program provides benefits to insured workers with disabilities under the full retirement age and their dependents based on an individual worker’s earnings and work history in covered employment. Recently, some Members of Congress and the public have expressed concern over the financial sustainability of the SSDI program. Between 1980 and 2011, the number of disabled-worker beneficiaries grew 196.6%, whereas the number of workers insured for disability increased 50.9%. This increase in the ratio of disabled-worker beneficiaries to insured workers, or prevalence rate, has placed pressure on the Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund, which the Social Security Board of Trustees projects will be exhausted in 2016."

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    * Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Examining the Evidence to Define Benefit Adequacy

    "For many Americans who live at or below the poverty threshold, access to healthy foods at a reasonable price is a challenge that often places a strain on already limited resources and may compel them to make food choices that are contrary to current nutritional guidance. To help alleviate this problem, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) administers a number of nutrition assistance programs designed to improve access to healthy foods for low-income individuals and households. The largest of these programs is the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly called the Food Stamp Program, which today serves more than 46 million Americans with a program cost in excess of $75 billion annually. The goals of SNAP include raising the level of nutrition among low-income households and maintaining adequate levels of nutrition by increasing the food purchasing power of low-income families. In response to questions about whether there are different ways to define the adequacy of SNAP allotments consistent with the program goals of improving food security and access to a healthy diet, USDA's Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) asked the Institute of Medicine (IOM) to conduct a study to examine the feasibility of defining the adequacy of SNAP allotments, specifically: the feasibility of establishing an objective, evidence-based, science-driven definition of the adequacy of SNAP allotments consistent with the program goals of improving food security and access to a healthy diet, as well as other relevant dimensions of adequacy; and data and analyses needed to support an evidence-based assessment of the adequacy of SNAP allotments. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Examining the Evidence to Define Benefit Adequacy reviews the current evidence, including the peer-reviewed published literature and peer-reviewed government reports. Although not given equal weight with peer-reviewed publications, some non-peer-reviewed publications from nongovernmental organizations and stakeholder groups also were considered because they provided additional insight into the behavioral aspects of participation in nutrition assistance programs. In addition to its evidence review, the committee held a data gathering workshop that tapped a range of expertise relevant to its task."

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    * Fourth Season of Dredging Begins in Upper Hudson - emove sediment contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)

    News release: "U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regional Administrator Judith A. Enck was joined by New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Deputy Commissioner Eugene Leff today to kick off the start of the fourth season of dredging in the Upper Hudson River. Portions of the Upper Hudson are being dredged to remove sediment contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), which are potentially cancer-causing chemicals that build up in the food chain and can cause neurological damage, especially in children. In 2013, dredging will begin south of the village of Fort Edward, New York around Griffin Island and will continue south in the main stem of the river to the Thompson Island Dam. Additional dredging is planned between Champlain Canal Lock 5 and 6 near the towns of Northumberland and Schuylerville...The historic dredging project targets approximately 2.65 million cubic yards of PCB-contaminated sediment from a 40-mile stretch of the upper Hudson River between Fort Edward and Troy, New York. At the end of the 2012 dredging season, the project was nearly half-way to its target with more than 1.3 million cubic yards removed since the project began in 2009. The dredging goal for 2013 is 350,000 cubic yards. The rest of the cleanup is expected to take three to five more years to complete."

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    * Lost Generations? Wealth Building among Young Americans

    Lost Generations? Wealth Building among Young Americans. C. Eugene Steuerle, Signe-Mary McKernan, Caroline Ratcliffe, Sisi Zhang. Urban Institute, March 15, 2013

  • "Despite the Great Recession and slow recovery, the American dream of working hard, saving more, and becoming wealthier than one's parents holds true for many. Unless you're under 40. Stagnant wages, diminishing job opportunities, and lost home values may be painting a vastly different future for Gen X and Gen Y. Today's political discussions often focus on preserving the wealth and benefits of older Americans and the baby boomers. Often lost in this debate is attention to younger generations whose wealth losses, or lack of long-term gains, have been even greater.

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    * Paper - Maintaining Adequate Bank Capital

    Maintaining Adequate Bank Capital, Mark J. Flannery. University of Florida - Department of Finance, Insurance and Real Estate. April 1, 2013. Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

  • "The Basel framework has produced complex definitions of “adequate” capital, expressed in terms of book (accounting) ratios. However, solvency actually depends not on accounting ratios but on private investors’ valuation of the firm’s assets’ and liabilities’ market values. At large banking firms, short-term liability-holders key off the firm’s economic solvency when deciding whether to renew their claims. Runs can cause a large bank’s failure regardless of its book capital ratio. Yet supervisors have been largely unable to maintain minimum risk-bearing capacity at large institutions. Actual default probabilities have often exceeded the 0.1% annual rate to which Basel II was calibrated. Over the past 25 years, the median probability of failure (PD) was 0.55%, with some large banks substantially higher. The value of conjectural guarantees has averaged 11.41% of the largest 25 U.S. BHCs’ equity value. I conclude by discussing the extent to which orderly resolution or contingent capital bonds might improve supervisory oversight."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Less Than Equal: Racial Disparities in Wealth Accumulation

    Less Than Equal: Racial Disparities in Wealth Accumulation, Signe-Mary McKernan, Caroline Ratcliffe, C. Eugene Steuerle, Sisi Zhang. Urban Institute, April 26, 2013.

  • Income inequality understates the size of the economic gap between whites and minorities in the United States. In 2010, whites on average had two times the income of blacks and Hispanics, but six times the wealth. Analyses of wealth accumulation over the life cycle show that the racial wealth gap grows sharply with age. Wealth isn't just money in the bank, it's insurance against tough times, tuition to get a better education and a better job, savings to retire on, and a springboard into the middle class."

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    April 29, 2013
    * New GAO Reports: State and Local Governments' Fiscal Outlook, Toxic Substances
    • State and Local Governments' Fiscal Outlook - April 2013 Update, GAO-13-546SP, Apr 29, 2013: "The state and local government sector continues to face near-term and long-term fiscal challenges which add to the nation's overall fiscal challenges. The state and local sector faces a gap between revenue and spending and long-term fiscal challenges that grow over time. The fiscal position of the sector will steadily decline through 2060 absent any policy changes."
    • Toxic Substances - EPA Has Increased Efforts to Assess and Control Chemicals but Could Strengthen Its Approach, GAO-13-249, Mar 22, 2013: "It is unclear whether EPA's new approach to managing chemicals within its existing TSCA authorities will position the agency to achieve its goal of ensuring the safety of chemicals. EPA officials said that the agency's new approach, summarized in its 2012 Existing Chemicals Program Strategy, is intended to guide EPA's efforts to assess and control chemicals in the coming years. However, EPA's strategy, which largely focuses on describing activities EPA has already begun, does not include leading federal strategic planning practices that could help guide its effort."
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    * East Carolina LibGuide - Annoucing the Cold War & Internal Security Collection

    David Durant, East Carolina University: "J.Y. Joyner Library, East Carolina University, is pleased to announce the creation of the Cold War and Internal Security (CWIS) Collection. The CWIS Collection is a print archive containing over 1,000 congressional hearings, reports and committee prints, published between 1934-1976, dealing with congressional investigations of organizations deemed "subversive" or "un-American". For more about the CWIS Collection, please visit our LibGuide. We have also created a CWIS Blog, in order to highlight interesting and important documents from the collection, as well as key topics and the broader historical context for these materials. The first post features baseball star Jackie Robinson's July 1949 testimony before the House Un-American Activities Committee. The CWIS Collection is part of the Association of Southeastern Research Libraries' Collaborative Federal Depository Program."

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    * BBC News: Bee Deaths - EU to ban neonicotinoid pesticides

    BBC News: "An EU vote last month was inconclusive, so the Commission proposal went to an appeals committee on Monday - and again the countries were split on the issue. Some restrictions are already in place for neonicotinoids in France, Germany, Italy and Slovenia. The three neonicotinoids are clothianidin, imidacloprid and thiametoxam. A report published by the European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) in January concluded that the pesticides posed a "high acute risk" to pollinators, including honeybees. However, it added that in some cases it was "unable to finalise the assessments due to shortcomings in the available data"."

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    * TRAC: ICE's FOIA Requests Piling Up

    Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse: "At Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) there has been a rapid rise in the backlog of FOIA requests received that have been waiting unanswered for long periods of time. According to its annual FOIA report, ICE had only 50 pending requests at the end of FY 2011; this number jumped to 2,903 at the end of FY 2012 after the agency was assigned the responsibility of processing some of the backlog of FOIA requests received by the Citizenship and Immigration Service (CIS). And according to the latest available agency records analyzed by TRAC, ICE's backlog is projected to grow to over 13,125 by the end of September 2013 when the fiscal year ends, three and a half times higher than it was at the end of FY 2012. For the latest FOIA Project report, with more details on the ICE FOIA request backlog, go here."

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    * McKinsey - Whither the US equity markets?

    The underlying drivers of performance suggest that over the long term, a dramatic decline in equity returns is unlikely. April 2013 | byBing Cao, Bin Jiang, and Tim Koller

  • "US equity markets stretched once again into record territory in March, setting new highs on both the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes. That’s good news for investors—it wasn’t that long ago when the market was headed in the other direction. The question on everyone’s mind, though, is where the market is headed next. In the short term, of course, there’s no telling what will happen—and speculation is risky. Investors and companies alike are notoriously weak at timing their investments to the market. But those are short-term questions; what really matters from a corporate-strategy perspective is the long term, and what really counts in the long term is the market’s relationship to the real economy. In fact, much of the equity market’s performance in the United States, as we’ve seen over at least the past 50 years, is clearly linked to the performance of the real economy, including GDP growth, corporate profits, interest rates, and inflation—in spite of short-term volatility. And in the absence of some disruption of that link, the market should continue to thrive. In a nutshell, if GDP were to grow at rates comparable to the 2 to 3 percent annual real growth of the past 50 years and inflation is kept in check, investors should be able to expect annual stock-market returns of 5 to 7 percent in real dollars over the next 10 to 20 years."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Inflation-Indexing Elements in Federal Entitlement Programs

    CRS - Inflation-Indexing Elements in Federal Entitlement Programs, Dawn Nuschler, Coordinator, Specialist in Income Security, April 24, 2013

  • "In recent years, various proposals have been discussed in the context of ways to reduce federal budget deficits. One of the proposals, for example, is the use of a different measure of consumer price change to index various provisions of federal programs, including cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs). For example, under current law, the Social Security COLA is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Under the proposal, the Social Security COLA would be based instead on the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (Chained CPI-U or C-CPI-U). Because the goal of the Chained CPI-U is to better reflect how consumers change their buying habits in response to changes in prices, supporters of the proposal argue that it is a more accurate measure for computing COLAs and making other automatic program adjustments. Opponents, however, view the proposal as a backdoor way of reducing benefits because the Chained CPI-U typically has risen more slowly than either the CPI-W or the traditional CPI-U. Some observers point out that the Chained CPI-U is published as a preliminary value that is subject to revision over a period of up to two years, and that it may not accurately reflect the cost of living for certain groups, such as the elderly population."

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    * New Bipartisan Legislation Targets "Too Big to Fail"

    News release: "U.S. Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and David Vitter (R-LA) announced a new plan that would prevent any one financial institution from becoming so large and over leveraged that it could put our economy on the brink of collapse or trigger the need for a federal bailout...Despite receiving assistance from taxpayers in 2008, today, the nation’s four largest banks—JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo—are nearly $2 trillion larger today than they were before the crisis. Their growth has been aided by an implicit guarantee—funded by taxpayers and awarded by virtue of their size—as the market knows that these institutions have been deemed “too big to fail.” This allows the nation’s largest megabanks to borrow at a lower rate than regional banks, community banks, and credit unions. This funding advantage, which has been confirmed by three independent studies in the last year, is estimated to be as high as $83 billion per year.Despite receiving assistance from taxpayers in 2008, today, the nation’s four largest banks—JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo—are nearly $2 trillion larger today than they were before the crisis. Their growth has been aided by an implicit guarantee—funded by taxpayers and awarded by virtue of their size—as the market knows that these institutions have been deemed “too big to fail.” This allows the nation’s largest megabanks to borrow at a lower rate than regional banks, community banks, and credit unions. This funding advantage, which has been confirmed by three independent studies in the last year, is estimated to be as high as $83 billion per year. Together, Brown and Vitter have successfully pressed the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to conduct a study of the economic benefits that the “too-big-to-fail” megabanks receive as a result of actual or perceived taxpayer funded support."

  • Full Bill; Bill Summary; Section-by-Section Guidance; Statements of Brown-Vitter

    • Permanent Link
    * CBO - Presentation on Innovation Policy

    CBO Director Doug Elmendorf: "I spoke this afternoon at a conference on "Innovation Policy and the Economy organized by the National Bureau of Economic Research. My presentation explored a wide array of possible changes in federal policy that might bolster innovation, including more spending on research and development, increased support for education, lower taxes on private investment, greater immigration of skilled workers, patent reform, and adjustments to regulatory policies. CBO’s role is to present to the Congress the advantages and disadvantages of different policies, so, as always, I made no recommendations. Instead, I concluded that, in the context of the current tight budget constraints, those approaches to enhancing innovation would require a redirection of federal money from other purposes or compromises on other national goals, which would require that spurring innovation be viewed by lawmakers as an important national priority."

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    * A Tour of the Federal Budget and Possible Changes in Budget Policy

    CBO: A Tour of the Federal Budget and Possible Changes in Budget Policy, Presentation to Economics 10 at Harvard University, Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director, April 26, 2013

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    April 28, 2013
    * 2012 Global Food Policy Report

    2012 Global Food Policy Report: "IFPRI’s flagship report examines the major food policy issues, developments, and decisions of 2012. By putting into perspective the year’s food policy successes and disappointments, it suggests how to move forward those policies that improve the food situation for the poor" - by Shenggen Fan, 2013, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

    Permanent Link
    * New GAO Reports: DHS, Missile Defense, Offshore Tax Evasion, Social Security
    • Department of Homeland Security - Opportunities Exist to Strengthen Efficiency and Effectiveness, Achieve Cost Savings, and Improve Management Functions, GAO-13-547T, Apr 26, 2013
    • Missile Defense - Opportunity to Refocus on Strengthening Acquisition Management, GAO-13-432, Apr 26, 2013
    • Offshore Tax Evasion - IRS Has Collected Billions of Dollars, but May be Missing Continued Evasion, GAO-13-318, Mar 27, 2013
    • Social Security Administration - Preliminary Observations on Key Management Challenges, GAO-13-545T, Apr 26, 2013
    • VA and IHS - Further Action Needed to Collaborate on Providing Health Care to Native American Veterans, GAO-13-354, Apr 26, 2013
    Permanent Link
    * Total NICS Background Checks: 1998-2013

    "The National Instant Criminal Background Check System, or NICS, is all about saving lives and protecting people from harm—by not letting guns and explosives fall into the wrong hands. It also ensures the timely transfer of firearms to eligible gun buyers. Mandated by the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act of 1993 and launched by the FBI on November 30, 1998, NICS is used by Federal Firearms Licensees (FFLs) to instantly determine whether a prospective buyer is eligible to buy firearms or explosives. Before ringing up the sale, cashiers call in a check to the FBI or to other designated agencies to ensure that each customer does not have a criminal record or isn’t otherwise ineligible to make a purchase. More than 100 million such checks have been made in the last decade, leading to more than 700,000 denials.

  • Total NICS Background Checks - November 30, 1998 - March 31, 2013: "These statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold. Based on varying state laws and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale."

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    * Report - Most Canadians have BPA in urine, lead traces in blood

    The Canadian Press: "A Health Canada study suggests most Canadians have the chemical bisphenol A in their urine and all have traces of lead in their blood. The 2009-2011 report on environmental chemicals shows the plastics ingredient bisphenol A, or BPA, was detected in the urine of 95 per cent of Canadians aged three to 79. Children aged three to five and six to 11 had the highest average concentration of BPA, while adults 60 to 79 had the lowest average level. Current BPA levels do not differ from those found in similar testing in 2007 to 2009, and the health effects of such exposure are unknown."

    "The Second Report on Human Biomonitoring of Environmental Chemicals in Canada, released in April 2013, presents new and updated biomonitoring data on the Canadian population's exposure to environmental chemicals, collected as part of cycles 1 and 2 of the CHMS. About 55% of the environmental chemicals measured in cycle 2 were not included in cycle 1. Additionally, a 3-5 year old age group was introduced in cycle 2 expanding the total sample population to 3-79 years. Cycle 2 also included an indoor air sampling component for environmental chemicals.

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    April 26, 2013
    * BIS: Financial sector ups and downs and the real sector in the open economy

    Financial sector ups and downs and the real sector in the open economy: Up by the stairs, down by the parachute by Joshua Aizenman, Brian Pinto and Vladyslav Sushko. Working Papers No 411, April 2013

  • "We examine how financial expansion and contraction cycles affect the broader economy through their impact on real economic sectors in a panel of countries over 1960-2005. Periods of accelerated growth of the financial sector are more likely to be followed by abrupt financial contractions than are periods of slower financial sector growth. Sharp fluctuations in the financial sector have strongly asymmetric effects, with the majority of real sectors adversely affected by contractions, but not helped by expansions. The adverse effects of financial contractions are transmitted almost exclusively through the financial openness channel, with precautionary foreign exchange reserve holdings serving as a key buffer."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * BLS - New Occupational Safety and Health Statistics

    BLS - "New Occupational Safety and Health Statistics - New data series available on fatal injuries among contractors and nonfatal injuries resulting in job transfer or restriction."

  • Data releases from the Injuries, Illnesses, and Fatalities (IIF) program

    • Permanent Link
    * BLS - Occupational Outlook Handbook

    2012-2013 Occupational Outlook Handbook: "Welcome to the Nation′s premier source for career information! The profiles featured here cover hundreds of occupations and describe What They Do, Work Environment, How to Become One, Pay, and more. Each profile also includes BLS employment projections for the 2010–20 decade."

    Permanent Link
    * VA60 Data Spotlight March 13, 2013 Cigarette Smoking Decreases among All Adults Except Those Aged 26 to 34

    Cigarette Smoking Decreases among All Adults Except Those Aged 26 to 34 - Substance Abuse & Mental Health Services Administration. March 13, 2013

  • "Smoking is a serious public health concern that continues to be the primary cause of preventable illness and death in the
    United States. Policy efforts such as increased cigarette taxes and graphic warning labels have helped reduce smoking. According to the 2011 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 54.9 million adults smoked cigarettes in the past month. Smoking rates decreased between 2002 and 2011 for adults in all age groups except those aged 26 to 34. Past month smoking among adults aged 26 to 34 showed no significant change between 2002 and 2011 (32.7 vs. 31.6 percent). Although the number of adults smoking
    has declined, this report suggests a need for immediate targeting
    of cessation efforts toward smokers currently in their late 20s and early 30s."

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    April 25, 2013
    * New GAO Reports: Air Force Electronic Systems Center, Explosive Ordnance Disposal, Federal Real Property, Federal Real Property
    • Air Force Electronic Systems Center - Reorganization Resulted in Workforce Reassignments at Hanscom Air Force Base, but Other Possible Effects Are Not Yet Known, GAO-13-366, Apr 25, 2013
    • Explosive Ordnance Disposal - DOD Needs Better Resource Planning and Joint Guidance to Manage the Capability, GAO-13-385, Apr 25, 2013
    • Federal Real Property - Excess and Underutilized Property Is an Ongoing Challenge, GAO-13-573T, Apr 25, 2013
    • Internal Revenue Service - 2013 Tax Filing Season Performance to Date and Budget Data, GAO-13-541R, Apr 15, 2013
    • Office of National Drug Control Policy - Office Could Better Identify Opportunities to Increase Program Coordination, GAO-13-333, Mar 26, 2013
    Permanent Link
    * Survey of Federal Whistleblower and Anti-Retaliation Laws

    Survey of Federal Whistleblower and Anti-Retaliation Laws, Jon O. Shimabukuro, Legislative Attorney; L. Paige Whitaker, Legislative Attorney; Emily E. Roberts, Law Librarian. April 22, 2013

  • "This report provides an overview of federal whistleblower and anti-retaliation laws. In general, these laws protect employees who report misconduct by their employers or who engage in various protected activities, such as participating in an investigation or filing a complaint. In recent years, Congress has expanded employee protections for a variety of private-sector workers. Eleven of the forty laws reviewed in this report were enacted after 1999. Among these laws are the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, the FDA Food Safety Modernization Act, and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act."

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    * Preliminary international banking statistics at end-December 2012

    "Statistics at end-December 2012 are preliminary and subject to change. Developments in the latest data are highlighted in the Statistical release. Data are available on the BIS website, via the BIS WebStats query tool, or in a single PDF in detailed annex tables. Final statistics and an analysis of recent trends will be released in conjunction with the forthcoming BIS Quarterly Review, to be published on 3 June 2013. Data at end-March 2013 will be released no later than 24 July 2013. International banking activity in the fourth quarter of 2012 continued to be marked by divergent sectoral trends, as credit to bank and non-bank counterparties moved in opposite directions. Cross-border claims on banks and related offices contracted by $405 billion between end-September and end-December 2012, whereas those on non-bank borrowers, including governments and non-bank financial intermediaries, increased by $132 billion. Owing to this divergence, the share of outstanding international claims on a consolidated basis accounted for by interbank claims declined to a historical low of 38% at end-December 2012. This is down from 40% at end-2011 and 46% at end-2007."

  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Working Paper - Structural bank regulation initiatives

    Structural bank regulation initiatives: approaches and implications,
    by Leonardo Gambacorta and Adrian Van Rixtel. Working Papers No 412, April 2013

  • The paper examines the basic rationale and features of the proposals adopted to separate specific investment and commercial banking activities (Volcker rule, Vickers and Liikanen proposals). In particular, it focuses on the likely implications of such initiatives for: (i) financial stability and systemic risk; (ii) banks' business models; and (iii) the international activities of global banks.
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * As CO2 Approaches Symbolic Milestone, Scripps Launches Daily Keeling Curve Update

    Scripps Institution of Oceanography / University of California, San Diego: "For the first time in human history, concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) could rise above 400 parts per million (ppm) for sustained lengths of time throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere as soon as May 2013. To provide a resource for understanding the implications of rising CO2 levels, Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego is providing daily updates of the "Keeling Curve," the record of atmospheric CO2 measured at Hawaii's Mauna Loa. These iconic measurements, begun by Charles David (Dave) Keeling, a world-leading authority on atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation and Scripps climate science pioneer, comprise the longest continuous record of CO2 in the world, starting from 316 ppm in March 1958 and approaching 400 ppm today with a familiar saw-tooth pattern. For the past 800,000 years, CO2 levels never exceeded 300 parts per million. "I wish it weren't true, but it looks like the world is going to blow through the 400-ppm level without losing a beat," said Scripps geochemist Ralph Keeling, who has taken over the Keeling Curve measurement from his late father. "At this pace we'll hit 450 ppm within a few decades." The website keelingcurve.ucsd.edu offers background information about how CO2 is measured, the history of the Keeling Curve, and resources from other organizations on the current state of climate."

    Permanent Link
    * Occupational Exposure to Carbon Nanotubes and Nanofibers

    Current Intelligence Bulletin 65: Occupational Exposure to Carbon Nanotubes and Nanofibers: "NIOSH issues Current Intelligence Bulletins (CIBs) to disseminate new scientific information about occupational hazards. A CIB may draw attention to a formerly unrecognized hazard, report new data on a known hazard, or disseminate information about hazard control. CIBs are distributed to representatives of academia, industry, organized labor, public health agencies, and public interest groups, as well as to federal agencies responsible for ensuring the safety and health of workers. NIOSH is the leading federal agency conducting research and providing guidance on the occupational safety and health implications and applications of nanotechnology. As nanotechnology continues to expand into every industrial sector, workers will be at an increased risk of exposure to new nanomaterials. Today, nanomaterials are found in hundreds of products, ranging from cosmetics, to clothing, to industrial and biomedical applications. These nanoscale-based products are typically called “first generation” products of nanotechnology. Many of these nanoscale-based products are composed of engineered nanoparticles, such as metal oxides, nanotubes, nanowires, quantum dots, and carbon fullerenes (buckyballs), among others. Early scientific studies have indicated that some of these nanoscale particles may pose a greater health risk than the larger bulk form of these materials."

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    April 24, 2013
    * Persons With A Disability: Barriers to Employment, Types of Assistance, and other Labor-Related Issues Summary

    News release: "In May 2012, half of all persons with a disability who were not working reported some type of barrier to employment, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Lack of education or training, lack of transportation, the need for special features at the job, and a person's own disability were among the barriers reported. Among persons with a disability who were employed, over half had some difficulty completing their work duties because of their disability. These findings were obtained from a supplement to the May 2012 Current Population Survey (CPS). The supplement was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Labor's Office of Disability Employment Policy. The CPS is a monthly survey of about 60,000 households that obtains information on national employment and unemployment for the civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and over, including information on persons with a disability. The May 2012 supplement collected information about barriers to employment, prior work experience, career and financial assistance, requested changes to the workplace, and related topics for persons with a disability."

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    * Federal Reserve announces issue date of redesigned $100 note

    News release: "The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced that the redesigned $100 note will begin circulating on October 8, 2013. This note, which incorporates new security features such as a blue, 3-D security ribbon, will be easier for the public to authenticate but more difficult for counterfeiters to replicate.
    The new design for the $100 note was unveiled in 2010, but its introduction was postponed following an unexpected production delay. To ensure a smooth transition to the redesigned note when it begins circulating in October, the U.S. Currency Education Program is reaching out to businesses and consumers around the world to raise awareness about the new design and inform them about how to use its security features. More information about the new design $100 note, as well as training and educational materials, can be found at www.newmoney.gov."

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    * EPIC FOIA Request Reveals Details About Government Cybersecurity Program

    EPIC: "New documents obtained by EPIC in a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit reveal that the Department of Defense advised private industry on how to best circumvent federal wiretap law. The documents concern a collaboration between the Defense Department, the Department of Homeland Security, and private companies to allow government monitoring of private Internet networks. Though the program initially only applied to defense contractors, an Executive Order issued by the Obama administration earlier this year expanded it to include other "critical infrastructure" industries. The documents obtained by EPIC also cited NSPD 54 as one source of authority for the program. NSPD 54 is a presidential directive issued under President Bush that EPIC is pursuing in separate FOIA litigation. For more information, see EPIC: EPIC v. DHS (Defense Contractor Monitoring), and EPIC: EPIC v. NSA - Cybersecurity Authority."

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    * New GAO Reports: Space Acquisitions, Spectrum Management, FEMA Reservists, Managing For Results
    • Space Acquisitions - DOD Is Overcoming Long-Standing Problems, but Faces Challenges to Ensuring Its Investments Are Optimized, GAO-13-508T, Apr 24, 2013
    • Spectrum Management - Preliminary Findings on Federal Relocation Costs and Auction Revenues, GAO-13-563T, Apr 24, 2013
    • Voters with Disabilities - Challenges to Voting Accessibility, GAO-13-538SP, Apr 23, 2013
    • FEMA Reservists - Training Could Benefit from Examination of Practices at Other Agencies, GAO-13-250R, Mar 22, 2013
    • Managing For Results - Agencies Should More Fully Develop Priority Goals under the GPRA Modernization Act, GAO-13-174, Apr 19, 2013
    Permanent Link
    * The Nation’s Report Card: Economics 2012

    The Nation’s Report Card: Economics 2012 - April 2013 - National Center for Education Statistics

  • "This report presents results of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) 2012 economics assessment. National results for a representative sample of students at grade 12 are reported as average scale scores and as percentages of students performing at or above three achievement levels: Basic, Proficient, and Advanced. Scores are also reported at selected percentiles, showing changes in the performances of lower, middle, and higher performing students. The report includes results for student groups defined by various demographic characteristics (e.g., race/ethnicity, gender, and level of parental education), as well as sample assessment questions with examples of student responses. Results from the 2012 assessment are compared to those from 2006. The Technical Notes provide information on NAEP samples and school and student participation rates."

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    April 23, 2013
    * CRS - U.S.-EU Cooperation Against Terrorism

    U.S.-EU Cooperation Against Terrorism, Kristin Archick, Specialist in European Affairs. April 22, 2013

  • "The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States and the subsequent revelation of Al Qaeda cells in Europe gave new momentum to European Union (EU) initiatives to combat terrorism and improve police, judicial, and intelligence cooperation among its member states. Other deadly incidents in Europe, such as the Madrid and London bombings in 2004 and 2005 respectively, injected further urgency into strengthening EU counterterrorism capabilities and reducing barriers among national law enforcement authorities so that information could be meaningfully shared and suspects apprehended expeditiously. Among other steps, the EU has established a common definition of terrorism and a common list of terrorist groups, an EU arrest warrant, enhanced tools to stem terrorist financing, and new measures to strengthen external EU border controls and improve aviation security."

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    * Investigative Journalists Report - Secret Files Expose Offshore’s Global Impact

    "Dozens of journalists sifted through millions of leaked records and thousands of names to produce ICIJ’s investigation into offshore secrecy. "A cache of 2.5 million files has cracked open the secrets of more than 120,000 offshore companies and trusts, exposing hidden dealings of politicians, con men and the mega-rich the world over. The secret records obtained by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists lay bare the names behind covert companies and private trusts in the British Virgin Islands, the Cook Islands and other offshore hideaways. They include American doctors and dentists and middle-class Greek villagers as well as families and associates of long-time despots, Wall Street swindlers, Eastern European and Indonesian billionaires, Russian corporate executives, international arms dealers and a sham-director-fronted company that the European Union has labeled as a cog in Iran’s nuclear-development program. The leaked files provide facts and figures — cash transfers, incorporation dates, links between companies and individuals — that illustrate how offshore financial secrecy has spread aggressively around the globe, allowing the wealthy and the well-connected to dodge taxes and fueling corruption and economic woes in rich and poor nations alike. The records detail the offshore holdings of people and companies in more than 170 countries and territories."

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    * CRS - Drought in the United States: Causes and Issues for Congress

    Drought in the United States: Causes and Issues for Congress, April 22, 2013

  • "Drought is a natural hazard with often significant societal, economic, and environmental consequences. Public policy issues related to drought range from how to identify and measure drought to how best to prepare for, mitigate, and respond to drought impacts, and who should bear associated costs. Severe drought in 2011 and 2012 fueled congressional interest in near-term issues, such as current (and recently expired) federal programs and their funding, and long-term issues, such as drought forecasting and various federal drought relief and mitigation actions. Continuing drought conditions throughout the country contribute to ongoing interest in federal drought policies and responses. As of April 2013, drought has persisted across approximately two-thirds of the United States and is threatening agricultural production and other sectors. More than 1,180 counties so far have been designated as disaster areas for the 2013 crop season, including 286 counties contiguous to primary drought counties."

    • Permanent Link
    * Reducing Tobacco-Related Cancer Incidence and Mortality: Workshop Summary

    Reducing Tobacco-Related Cancer Incidence and Mortality: "Tobacco use is the leading cause of preventable death in United States, causing more than 440,000 deaths annually and resulting in $193 billion in health-related economic losses each year--$96 billion in direct medical costs and $97 billion in lost productivity. Since the first U.S. Surgeon General's report on smoking in 1964, more than 29 Surgeon General's reports, drawing on data from thousands of studies, have documented the overwhelming and conclusive biologic, epidemiologic, behavioral, and pharmacologic evidence that tobacco use is deadly. This evidence base links tobacco use to the development of multiple types of cancer and other life-threatening conditions, including cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Smoking accounts for at least 30 percent of all cancer deaths, and 80 percent of lung cancer deaths. Despite the widespread agreement on the dangers of tobacco use and considerable success in reducing tobacco use prevalence from over 40 percent at the time of the 1964 Surgeon General's report to less than 20 percent today, recent progress in reducing tobacco use has slowed. An estimated 18.9 percent of U.S. adults smoke cigarettes, nearly one in four high school seniors smoke, and 13 percent of high school males use smokeless tobacco products."

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    * Bipartisan Policy Center Proposes New Modernized, Integrated Medicare System

    A Bipartisan Rx for Patient-Centered Care and System-Wide Cost Containment, Bipartisan Policy Center, April 2013

  • "In the United States, nearly a fifth of all spending is currently devoted to health care. High and rising health care costs consume a large and rapidly growing portion of the federal budget, crowding out investments in other crucial priorities such as education, defense and infrastructure and putting pressure on other priorities of households, businesses and governments. This trend will only accelerate with the aging of the population and its increased dependence on federal and state financing of health care. Yet despite our high national spending, health care in the United States is uneven in quality and often wasteful, uncoordinated and inefficient. Leaders on both sides of the political aisle, and in the health and economic policy communities, recognize the urgency of improving the quality and effectiveness of care, while slowing the growth of spending. However, far too often, attempts to address our nation’s health and budget issues have been fragmented and unproductive, frequently due to partisan disagreements over how to approach these highly sensitive issues."

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    * Paying Down Debt, Reducing New Borrowing, and Stricter Lending Standards Drive Household Deleveraging

    "Since the financial crisis, households have reduced their outstanding debt by about $1.3 trillion. While part of this reduction stemmed from a historic increase in consumer defaults and lender charge-offs—particularly on mortgage debt—other factors were also at play, according to a recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In their study, The Financial Crisis at the Kitchen Table: Trends in Household Debt and Credit, Meta Brown, Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw reveal that households actively reduced their obligations during this period by paying down outstanding debts and reducing new borrowing. These choices, along with banks’ stricter lending standards, helped drive this deleveraging process. However, while this process has helped improve household balance sheets, it has also likely contributed to slow consumption growth since the beginning of the recession. As households actively pay down debts, they may be forced to reduce their previous consumption levels. Thus, the trajectory for consumer indebtedness has important implications for consumption and economic growth going forward."

    Permanent Link
    April 22, 2013
    * CRS - Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy

    Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy, Craig K. Elwell, Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy. April 18, 2013

  • The 2007-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. Economic recovery began in mid-2009. Real gross domestic product (GDP) has been on a positive track since then, although the pace has been uneven and slowed significantly in 2011. The stock market has recovered from its lows, and employment has increased moderately. On the other hand, significant economic weakness remains evident, particularly in the balance sheet of households, the labor market, and the housing sector."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2012

    Department of State’s Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2012

  • "We report on the world's newest country, South Sudan, and its efforts to ensure a peaceful future for its people. We cover the horrifying violence in Syria, historic elections in Egypt, Georgia, and Libya, and the promising democratic opening in Burma. The reports also reveal the courage of individuals, including netizens, activists, workers, and journalists who advocate for universal human rights. The reports make clear that many of our most pressing foreign policy challenges are, at their core, about the universal and undeniable human quest for freedom and dignity. Our world is complex and increasingly influenced by non-state actors – brave civil society activists and advocates, but also violent extremists, transnational criminals, and other malevolent actors. In those places where human rights and fundamental freedoms are denied, it is far easier for these negative destabilizing influences to take hold, threatening international stability and our own national security."

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    * CRS - Small Business: Access to Capital and Job Creation

    Small Business: Access to Capital and Job Creation, Robert Jay Dilger, Senior Specialist in American National Government. April 18, 2013

  • "The SBA administers several programs to support small businesses, including loan guaranty and venture capital programs to enhance small business access to capital; contracting programs to increase small business opportunities in federal contracting; direct loan programs for businesses, homeowners, and renters to assist their recovery from natural disasters; and small business management and technical assistance training programs to assist business formation and expansion. Congressional interest in these programs has increased in recent years, primarily because assisting small business is viewed as a means to enhance economic growth."

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    * Brookings - Black Carbon and Kerosene Lighting: An Opportunity for Rapid Action on Climate Change

    Black Carbon and Kerosene Lighting: An Opportunity for Rapid Action on Climate Change and Clean Energy for Development, By: Arne Jacobson, Nicholas L. Lam, Tami C. Bond and Nathan Hultman. April 2013.

  • "Replacing inefficient kerosene lighting with electric lighting or other clean alternatives can rapidly achieve development and energy access goals, save money and reduce climate warming. Many of the 250 million households that lack reliable access to electricity rely on inefficient and dangerous simple wick lamps and other kerosene-fueled light sources, using 4 to 25 billion liters of kerosene annually to meet basic lighting needs. Kerosene costs can be a significant household expense and subsidies are expensive. New information on kerosene lamp emissions reveals that their climate impacts are substantial. Eliminating current annual black carbon emissions would provide a climate benefit equivalent to 5 gigatons of carbon dioxide reductions over the next 20 years. Robust and low-cost technologies for supplanting simple wick and other kerosene-fueled lamps exist and are easily distributed and scalable. Improving household lighting offers a low-cost opportunity to improve development, cool the climate and reduce costs."

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    * The Next Generation Science Standards are now available

    "Next Generation Science Standards identifies the science all K-12 students should know. These new standards are based on the National Research Council’s A Framework for K-12 Science Education. The National Research Council, the National Science Teachers Association, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and Achieve have partnered to create standards through a collaborative state-led process. The standards are rich in content and practice and arranged in a coherent manner across disciplines and grades to provide all students an internationally benchmarked science education."

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    April 21, 2013
    * The CEO Poverty Measure, 2005 - 2011

    The CEO Poverty Measure, 2005 - 2011. An Annual Report by the NYC Center for Economic Opportunity, April 2013

  • "This year’s Center for Economic Opportunity (CEO) report on poverty in New York City reflects a turning point. Our two prior annual reports documented the growing importance of the social safety net at a time when the job market was contracting and earned income was in decline. For many low-income families, the distance between their earnings and the poverty line widened. At the same time the safety net expanded, filling some, but not all, of the gap. As a consequence, from 2008 to 2010, the City poverty rate rose."

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    * Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community

    Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community. James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, April 18, 2013

  • "This year, in both content and organization, this statement illustrates how quickly and radically the world—and our threat environment—are changing. This environment is demanding reevaluations of the way we do business, expanding our analytic envelope, and altering the vocabulary of intelligence. Threats are more diverse, interconnected, and viral than at any time in history. Attacks, which might involve cyber and financial weapons, can be deniable and unattributable. Destruction can be invisible, latent, and progressive. We now monitor shifts in human geography, climate, disease, and competition for natural resources because they fuel tensions and conflicts. Local events that might seem irrelevant are more likely to affect US national security in accelerated time frames. In this threat environment, the importance and urgency of intelligence integration cannot be overstated. Our progress cannot stop. The Intelligence Community must continue to promote collaboration among experts in every field, from the political and social sciences to natural sciences,
    medicine, military issues, and space. Collectors and analysts need vision across disciplines to understand how and why developments—and both state and unaffiliated actors—can spark sudden changes with international implications."

    • Permanent Link
    * Federal Agency Data Mining Report 2012

    Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2012 Data Mining Report For the Period January 1, 2012 through December 31, 2012: "The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) provides this report pursuant to Section 804 of the Implementing the Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007, entitled The Federal Agency Data Mining Reporting Act of 2007 (Act)."

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    * The National Intelligence Council's Global Trends Report

    "The National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends Report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance...Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries—from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups—to solicit reviews of the report."

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    * FTC Survey for 2011 Shows an Estimated 25.6 Million Americans Fell Victim to Fraud

    News release: "The Federal Trade Commission today released a statistical survey of fraud in the United States during 2011, which showed that an estimated 25.6 million adults – 10.8 percent of the adult population – were fraud victims...While fast-growing online commerce has benefited consumers with greater choice and convenience, the survey indicates that, as of 2011, the Internet was also the place where consumers most often learned about fraudulent offers. The Internet category, which included email, social media, auction sites and classified ads, was followed by print advertising, and TV and radio. Most consumers bought fraudulent items via the Internet; telephone purchases ranked second."

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    April 20, 2013
    * Kaiser - A Report on Women and HIV/AIDS In the U.S.

    "This report maps the trajectory of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among women in the United States (U.S.), including the following: key historical epidemiological trends and the important role played by women in the response over time; the current impact of HIV among women in the U.S., including a profile of those most affected by race/ethnicity, age, transmission risk, geography, and other demographics; major sources of prevention, care, and treatment for women with and at risk for HIV; attitudes toward and knowledge about HIV among women; and ongoing challenges and opportunities. While HIV has impacted women worldwide--globally, women comprise half of all those living with HIV--this report focuses on the impact of HIV on women in the U.S."

    Permanent Link
    * Levy Economics Institute - The State of the US and World Economie

    "This program's central focus is the use of Levy Institute macroeconomic models in generating strategic analyses of the US and world economies. The outcomes of alternative scenarios are projected and analyzed, with the results—published as Strategic Analysis reports—serving to help policymakers understand the implications of various policy options. The Levy Institute macroeconomic models, created by Distinguished Scholar Wynne Godley, are accounting based. The US model employs a complete and consistent system (in that all sectors “sum up,” with no unaccounted leakages) of stocks and flows (such as income, production, and wealth). The world model is a “closed” system, in which 11 trading blocs—of which the United States, China, Japan, and Western Europe are four—are represented. This model is based on a matrix in which each bloc’s imports are described in terms of exports from the other 10 blocs. From this information, and using alternative assumptions (e.g., growth rates, trade shares, and energy demands and supplies), trends are identified and patterns of trade and production analyzed.

    The projections derived from the models are not presented as short-term forecasts. The aim is to display, based on analysis of the recent past, what it seems reasonable to expect if current trends, policies, and relationships continue. To inform policy, it is not necessary to establish that a particular projection will come to pass, but only that it is something that must be given serious consideration as a possibility. The usefulness of such analyses is strategic: they can serve to warn policymakers of potential dangers and serve as a guide to policy instruments that are available, or should be made available, to deal with those dangers, should they arise."

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    * Building a Financial Structure for a More Stable and Equitable Economy

    Press release: "It’s time to put global finance back in its proper place as a tool to achieving sustainable development. This means substantial downsizing, careful re-regulation, universal social protections, and an active, permanent employment-creation program. Therefore, the 2013 Minsky Conference will address both financial reform and poverty in the context of Minsky’s work on financial instability and his proposal for a public job guarantee. Panels will focus on the design of a new, more robust, and stable financial architecture; fiscal austerity and the sustainability of the US economic recovery; central bank independence and financial reform; the larger implications of the eurozone debt crisis for the global economic system; improving governance of the social safety net; the institutional shape of the future financial system; strategies for promoting poverty eradication and an inclusive economy; sustainable development and market transformation; time poverty and the gender pay gap; and policy and regulatory challenges for emerging-market economies.">Building a Financial Structure for a More Stable and Equitable Economy - A conference organized by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College with support from the Ford Foundation. April 17–19, 2013

  • "In 2008–09, the world experienced its worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression. Global employment and output collapsed, and an estimated 84 million people fell into extreme poverty. Given the fragility and uneven progress of the economic recovery, social conditions are expected to improve only slowly. Meanwhile, austerity measures in response to high government debt in some of the advanced economies are making the recovery even more uncertain. It’s time to put global finance back in its proper place as a tool to achieving sustainable development. This means substantial downsizing, careful re-regulation, universal social protections, and an active, permanent employment-creation program. Therefore, the 2013 Minsky Conference will address both financial reform and poverty in the context of Minsky’s work on financial instability and his proposal for a public job guarantee. Panels will focus on the design of a new, more robust, and stable financial architecture; fiscal austerity and the sustainability of the US economic recovery; central bank independence and financial reform; the larger implications of the eurozone debt crisis for the global economic system; improving governance of the social safety net; the institutional shape of the future financial system; strategies for promoting poverty eradication and an inclusive economy; sustainable development and market transformation; time poverty and the gender pay gap; and policy and regulatory challenges for emerging-market economies."
  • Working Paper No. 743 Investment, Financial Markets, and Uncertainty, Author(s): Philip Arestis, Ana Rosa González, Óscar Dejuán, December 2012
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    April 19, 2013
    * Proportion of underemployed part - time workers up to 21.4% in the EU27 in 2012

    News release: "Among the 43 million part-time workers in the EU27 in 2012, 9.2 million wished to work more hours, were available to do so and can therefore be considered to be underemployed. Since the start of the economic crisis the proportion of part - time workers wishing to work more hours and available to do so has grown steadily, from 18.5% in 2008 to 20.5% in 2011 and 21.4% in 2012. In 2012, the largest proportions of people wishing to work more hours and available to do so among part - time workers were found in Member States where the share of employed persons working part-time is relatively low: Greece(66%), Spain (55%), Latvia (53%) and Cyprus(50%). On the other hand, the smallest proportion was found in the Netherlands (3%), where part - time working is the most common, followed by Estonia (8%) and the Czech Republic (10%). This information is published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, based on the 2012 results of the European Labour Force Survey. The three indicators presented in this News Release provide an enhanced and richer picture of the labour market, by supplementing the existing information which classifies people as employed, unemployed or economically inactive."

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    * Motor Vehicle Traffic-Related Pedestrian Deaths — United States, 2001–2010

    Motor Vehicle Traffic-Related Pedestrian Deaths — United States, 2001–2010. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). April 19, 2013 / Vol. 62 / No. 15

  • "Motor vehicle traffic crashes are the leading cause of unintentional injury-related death in the United States, resulting in 33,687 deaths in 2010 (1). Pedestrian travel makes up 10.5% of all trips (i.e., any travel from one address to another) taken in the United States, and pedestrians represent 13% of all motor vehicle traffic-related deaths. To determine traffic-related pedestrian death rates by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, and urbanization level, CDC analyzed 2001–2010 data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). The results of that analysis indicated that the overall, annualized, age-adjusted traffic-related pedestrian death rate was 1.58 deaths per 100,000 population. Persons aged ≥75 years and those categorized as American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) had the highest death rates, and age group differences varied by race/ethnicity. The results suggest that the overall pedestrian death rate could increase with the aging and growing racial/ethnic diversity of the U.S. population. The U.S. Census Bureau projects that the number of persons aged ≥75 years will more than double, from approximately 18 million in 2011 (6% of the U.S. population) to 44 million in 2040 (12% of the population); minority racial/ethnic populations are projected to increase from 116 million in 2010 (37% of the population) to 186 million in 2040 (49% of the population).* Strategies to prevent pedestrian deaths should include consideration of the needs of older adults and cultural differences among racial/ethnic populations."

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    * Americans' Optimism About Home Prices Surges This Year

    Gallup: "Fifty-one percent of Americans expect average home prices in their local area to increase over the next year, a sharp increase from last year and the first time it has been above 50% since 2007. These data are from Gallup's annual Economy and Personal Finance survey, conducted April 4-14, polling more than 2,000 Americans and 1,400 homeowners on the topic of housing. This is the first of several stories on housing and homeownership Gallup will run this week, as part of Gallup's ongoing series, "The New American Consumer." Americans' views of the housing market became understandably more pessimistic during the housing crisis and its aftermath. But with the housing market picking up again, so has Americans' optimism about home prices. Gallup first asked about expectations for local home values in an Experian/Gallup Personal Credit Index survey in 2005, and at that point -- near the peak of the housing market -- 70% expected local home prices to rise."

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    * Global Financial Stability Report Old Risks, New Challenges - April 2013

    "The April 2013: The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. The April 2013 report analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets and unwind public and private debt overhangs. Chapter 1 also examines short- and medium-term stability risks in the euro area and the vulnerability of emerging market economies to persistent capital inflows. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 reports on unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve."

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    April 18, 2013
    * Brief - Young Student Loan Borrowers Retreat from Housing and Auto Markets

    Young Student Loan Borrowers Retreat from Housing and Auto Markets, Meta Brown and Sydnee Caldwell

  • "Student loans have soared in popularity over the past decade, with the aggregate student loan balance, as measured in the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, reaching $966 billion at the end of 2012. Student debt now exceeds aggregate auto loan, credit card, and home-equity debt balances—making student loans the second largest debt of U.S. households, following mortgages. Student loans provide critical access to schooling, given the challenge presented by increasing costs of higher education and rising returns to a degree. Nevertheless, some have questioned how taking on extensive debt early in life has affected young workers’ post-schooling economic activity."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * CRS - Cybersecurity: Selected Legal Issues

    Cybersecurity: Selected Legal Issues, April 17, 2013.

  • "The federal government’s role in protecting U.S. citizens and critical infrastructure from cyber attacks has been the subject of recent congressional interest. Critical infrastructure commonly refers to those entities that are so vital that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating impact on national security, economic security, or the public health and safety. This report discusses selected legal issues that frequently arise in the context of recent legislation to address vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure to cyber threats, efforts to protect government networks from cyber threats, and proposals to facilitate and encourage sharing of cyber threat information among private sector and government entities. This report also discusses the degree to which federal law may preempt state law. It has been argued that, in order to ensure the continuity of critical infrastructure and the larger economy, a regulatory framework for selected critical infrastructure should be created to require a minimum level of security from cyber threats. On the other hand, others have argued that such regulatory schemes would not improve cybersecurity while increasing the costs to businesses, expose businesses to additional liability if they fail to meet the imposed cybersecurity standards, and increase the risk that proprietary or confidential business information may be inappropriately
    disclosed."

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    * 2013 edition of World Development Indicators

    "The 2013 edition of World Development Indicators (WDI), released today, includes the latest available data on global development, poverty, the quality of people's lives, the environment, the economy, the functioning of states and markets, and global links of finance, trade, and migration...This year’s edition has been substantially improved, with expanded highlights based on trends in key indicators, including those used to monitor progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. Key indicators are shown in new selected tables, with the full set of tables now available on-line. Enhanced multilingual data access applications for the web, tablets, and mobile devices make the data easier to access. Also released today is the 2013 edition of the Little Data Book with key indicators for each economy in a pocket-sized reference."

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    * Foreign Investment and National Security: Economic Considerations

    CRS - Foreign Investment and National Security: Economic Considerations. James K. Jackson, Specialist in International Trade and Finance, April 4, 2013

  • "The United States is the largest foreign direct investor in the world and also the largest recipient of foreign direct investment. This dual role means that globalization, or the spread of economic activity by firms across national borders, has become a prominent feature of the U.S. economy and that through direct investment the U.S. economy has become highly enmeshed with the broader global economy. This also means that the United States has important economic, political, and social interests at stake in the development of international policies regarding direct investment. With some exceptions for national security, the United States has established domestic policies that treat foreign investors no less favorably than U.S. firms."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * CRS - Changes to the Residential Mortgage Market

    Changes to the Residential Mortgage Market: Legislation, Demographics, and Other Drivers. N. Eric Weiss, Specialist in Financial Economics, April 16, 2013

  • "Congressional interest in residential mortgage markets has increased following the collapse of the housing bubble, government financial support to the mortgage market, and housing’s perceived importance to the broader economic recovery. Since 2008, the residential mortgage market has experienced some of the highest default and foreclosure rates since the Great Depression. The future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two congressionally chartered government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that have long been central pillars of the mortgage market, is also the subject of congressional debate. Both GSEs are currently in conservatorship and have received financial support from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. There is also concern over the financial conditions of the Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA’s) mortgage guarantee program."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Acquisition: Issues for Congress

    CRS - Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Acquisition:Issues for Congress. Marshall Curtis Erwin, Analyst in Intelligence and National Security, April 16, 2013

  • "Increasing calls for intelligence support and continuing innovations in intelligence technologies combine to create significant challenges for both the executive and legislative branches. Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems are integral components of both national policymaking and military operations, including counterterrorism operations, but they are costly and complicated and they must be linked in order to provide users with a comprehensive understanding of issues based on information from all sources. Relationships among organizations responsible for designing, acquiring, and operating these systems are also complicated, as are oversight arrangements in Congress. These complications have meant that even though many effective systems have been fielded, there have also been lengthy delays and massive cost overruns. Uncertainties about the long-term acquisition plans for ISR systems persist even as pressures continue for increasing the availability of ISR systems in current and future military operations and for national policymaking."

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    * Recent Declines in Infant Mortality in the United States, 2005–2011

    CDC - Recent Declines in Infant Mortality in the United States, 2005–2011. Marian F. MacDorman, Ph.D.; Donna L. Hoyert, Ph.D.; and T.J. Mathews, M.S. April 2013 Key findings:

    • Following a plateau from 2000 through 2005, the U.S. infant mortality rate declined 12% from 2005 through 2011. Declines for neonatal and postneonatal mortality were similar.
    • From 2005 through 2011, infant mortality declined 16% for non-Hispanic black women and 12% for non-Hispanic white women.
    • Infant mortality declined for four of the five leading causes of death during the 2005–2011 period.
    • Infant mortality rates declined most rapidly among some, but not all, Southern states from 2005 through 2010. Despite these declines, states in the South still had among the highest rates in 2010. Rates were also high in 2010 in some states in the Midwest.

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    * Human Rights and Democracy: The 2012 Foreign & Commonwealth Office Report

    Human Rights and Democracy: The 2012 Foreign & Commonwealth Office Report

  • "We have made a number of changes to this year’s report, including two new chapters. The first is on Promoting and Protecting Human Rights through the UN, and describes our work on human rights through the UN – the forum in which the UK seeks to promote a coordinated response to human rights violations from the international community. The second is on our Human Rights and Democracy Programme, an important source of funding that allows us to support hundreds of human-rights-related projects around the world."

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    * BIS- Implementation of PFMIs monitored by CPSS and IOSCO

    "The Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) have started the process of monitoring implementation of the Principles for financial market infrastructures (PFMIs). The PFMIs are international standards for payment, clearing and settlement systems, including central counterparties (CCPs) and trade repositories (TRs). They are designed to ensure that the infrastructure supporting global financial markets is robust and well placed to withstand financial shocks. The PFMIs were issued by CPSS-IOSCO in April 2012, and jurisdictions around the world are currently in the process of implementing them into their regulatory frameworks to foster the safety, efficiency and resilience of their financial market infrastructures (FMIs). Full, timely and consistent implementation of the PFMIs is fundamental to ensuring the safety, soundness and efficiency of key FMIs and for supporting the resilience of the global financial system. In addition, the PFMIs play an important part in the G20's mandate that all standardised over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives should be centrally cleared. Global central clearing requirements reinforce the importance of strong safeguards and consistent oversight of derivatives CCPs in particular. CPSS and IOSCO members are committed to adopt the principles and responsibilities contained in the PFMIs in line with G20 and Financial Stability Board (FSB) expectations."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Trends in Foodborne Illness in the United States, 2012

    CDC: "Each year, FoodNet reports on the changes in the number of people sickened with foodborne infections that have been confirmed by laboratory tests.
    "Foodborne diseases monitored through FoodNet include infections caused by the bacteria Campylobacter, Listeria, Salmonella, Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) O157 and non-O157, Shigella, Vibrio, and Yersinia, and the parasites Cryptosporidium and Cyclospora. The data collected by FoodNet also lets CDC, its partners, and policy makers know how much progress has been made in reaching national goalsExternal Web Site Icon for reducing foodborne illness. Data from FoodNet, which monitors 15% of the US population, provide the best measure of trends in foodborne disease in the United States. Overall, the 2012 FoodNet data showed a lack of recent progress in reducing foodborne infections and highlight the need for improved prevention."

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    April 17, 2013
    * Codes of Conduct for Multinational Corporations: An Overview

    CRS - Codes of Conduct for Multinational Corporations: An Overview, James K. Jackson, Specialist in International Trade and Finance, April 16, 2013

  • "The U.S. economy has grown increasingly interconnected with other economies around the world, a phenomenon often referred to as globalization. As U.S. businesses expand globally, however, various groups across the social and economic spectrum have expressed their concerns over the economic, social, and political impact of this activity. Over the past 20 years, multinational corporations and nations have adopted voluntary, legally enforceable, and industry specific codes of conduct, often referred to broadly as corporate social responsibility (CSR), to address many of these concerns. Recent events, primarily the 2008-2009 financial crisis and related work by major international organizations, spurred Congress and governments in Europe to increase their regulation of financial firms. Indeed, the growing presence and influence of multinational corporations in the production of goods and services and in international trade through value chains has prodded governments to adopt measures that enhance the benefits of such activities through codes of conduct. Congress will continue playing a pivotal role in addressing the various issues regarding internationally applied corporate codes of conduct."

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    * Federal Reserve Board - Beige Book - April 17, 2013

    Beige Book - April 17, 2013 - "Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District, Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas based on information collected on or before April 5, 2013..Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest overall economic activity expanded at a moderate pace during the reporting period from late February to early April. Activity in the Cleveland, Richmond, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts was characterized as growing at a moderate pace, while the Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, and San Francisco Districts noted modest growth. The New York and Dallas Districts indicated that the pace of expansion accelerated slightly since the previous Beige Book. Most Districts noted increases in manufacturing activity since the previous report. Particular strength was seen in industries tied to residential construction and automobiles, while several Districts reported uncertainty or weakness in defense-related sectors. Consumer spending grew modestly, and firms in some Districts cited higher gasoline prices, expiration of the payroll tax cut, and winter weather as factors restraining sales growth. Retailers in several Districts expect continued sales growth in the near term. Overall vehicle sales remained strong or increased, but sales of used automobiles declined in some Districts. Travel and tourism expanded across most reporting Districts, boosted by both business and leisure travel."

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    * NOAA - Underwater: Land loss in coastal Louisiana since 1932

    "Every year, 25-35 square miles of land off the coast of Louisiana—an area larger than Manhattan–disappears into the water due to a combination of subsidence (soil settling) and global sea level rise. The maps above show how much land has been lost to the Gulf of Mexico in the past 80 years...In Southeast Louisiana, relative sea level is rising at a rate of three feet every one hundred years, according to sixty years of tidal gauge records. Relative sea level refers to the change in sea level compared to the elevation of the land, which can be due to a combination of global sea level rise and subsidence—the settling and sinking of soil over time."

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    * New GAO Reports - Federal Courthouses, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, Foreclosure Review, NASA, USPS, Veterans Health Care
    • Federal Courthouses - Most Recommended New Construction Projects Do Not Qualify Under Improved Capital-Planning Process, GAO-13-523T, Apr 17, 2013
    • Federal Courthouses - Recommended Construction Projects Should Be Evaluated under New Capital- Planning Process, GAO-13-263, Apr 11, 2013
    • F-35 Joint Strike Fighter - Program Has Improved in Some Areas, but Affordability Challenges and Other Risks Remain, GAO-13-500T, Apr 17, 2013
    • Foreclosure Review - Lessons Learned Could Enhance Continuing Reviews and Activities under Amended Consent Orders, GAO-13-550T, Apr 17, 2013
    • Information Technology - Consistently Applying Best Practices Could Help IRS Improve the Reliability of Reported Cost and Schedule Information, GAO-13-401, Apr 17, 2013
    • NASA - Assessments of Selected Large-Scale Projects, GAO-13-276SP, Apr 17, 2013
    • U.S. Postal Service, Urgent Action Needed to Achieve Financial Sustainability, GAO-13-562T, Apr 17, 2012
    • Veterans Health Care, VHA Has Taken Steps to Address Deficiencies in Its Logistics Program, but Significant Concerns Remain, GAO-13-336, Apr 17, 2013
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    April 16, 2013
    * Direct Overt U.S. Aid Appropriations for and Military Reimbursements to Pakistan, FY2002-FY2014

    CRS - Direct Overt U.S. Aid Appropriations for and Military Reimbursements to Pakistan, FY2002-FY2014, April 11, 2013.

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    * New GAO Reports: Acquisition Workforce, Aviation Safety, Renewable and Advanced Energy Technologies, Grants Management, IRS Website, Managing For Results
    • Acquisition Workforce - Federal Agencies Obtain Training to Meet Requirements, but Have Limited Insight into Costs and Benefits of Training Investment, GAO-13-231, Mar 28, 2013
    • Aviation Safety - FAA Efforts Have Improved Safety, but Challenges Remain in Key Areas, GAO-13-442T, Apr 16, 2013
    • Energy - Federal Support for Renewable and Advanced Energy Technologies, GAO-13-514T, Apr 16, 2013
    • Grants Management - Oversight of Selected States' Disbursement of Federal Funds Addresses Timeliness and Administrative Allowances, GAO-13-392, Apr 16, 2013
    • IRS Website - Long-Term Strategy Needed to Improve Interactive Services, GAO-13-435, Apr 16, 2013
    • Managing For Results - Agencies Have Elevated Performance Management Leadership Roles, but Additional Training Is Needed, GAO-13-356, Apr 16, 2013
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    * Covert Action: Legislative Background and Possible Policy Questions

    CRS - Covert Action: Legislative Background and Possible Policy Questions, Marshall Curtis Erwin, Analyst in Intelligence and National Security, April 10, 2013

  • "Senior U.S. intelligence community officials have conceded that the line separating Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
    and DOD intelligence activities has blurred, making it more difficult to distinguish between the traditional secret intelligence missions carried out by each. They also have acknowledged that the U.S. intelligence community confronts a major challenge in clarifying the roles and responsibilities of various intelligence agencies with regard to clandestine activities. Some Pentagon officials have appeared to indicate that DOD’s activities should be limited to clandestine or passive activities, pointing out that if such operations are discovered or are inadvertently revealed, the U.S. government would be able to preserve the option of acknowledging such activity, thus assuring the military personnel who are involved some safeguards that are afforded under the Geneva Conventions. Covert actions, by contrast, constitute activities in which the role of the U.S. government is not intended to be apparent or to be acknowledged publicly. Those who participate in such activities could jeopardize any rights they may have under the Geneva Conventions, according to these officials."

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    * Federal Advisory Committee Draft Climate Assessment Report Released for Public Review

    News release: "A 60-person Federal Advisory Committee (The "National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee" or NCADAC) has overseen the development of this draft climate report. The NCADAC, whose members are available here (and in the report), was established under the Department of Commerce in December 2010 and is supported through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).It is a federal advisory committee established as per the Federal Advisory Committee Act of 1972. The Committee serves to oversee the activities of the National Climate Assessment. Its members are diverse in background, expertise, geography and sector of employment. A formal record of the committee can be found at the NOAA NCADAC website."

  • Download Chapters of the NCADAC Draft or the complete Climate Assessment Report

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    * Get Grandpas FBI File.com Website Now Makes Getting FBI Files Easy

    News release: "The process for obtaining FBI files about family members who may have been the subject of a federal investigation has just become much simpler with the help of a step-by-step consumer website: GetGrandpasFBIfile.com established by Virginia-based Meme Transmission Enterprises...The Federal Bureau of Investigation maintains billions of pages of records and millions of files -– all compiled using taxpayer dollars. But the clock is ticking. Recently, the FBI has begun destroying the bulk of its historic files to save space. Only a very tiny fraction of its voluminous files will be preserved at the National Archives So time is of the essence in asking for files before they are gone forever. Get Grandpas FBI File makes it easy to get these files by guiding the public through the process of completing a request letter. The website does not ask for any payment, and most requests for FBI files are processed by the FBI without any fees whatsoever."

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    * Report - Financial Implications and Strategic Responses to a Changing Retail Electric Business

    Disruptive Challenges: Financial Implications and Strategic Responses to a Changing Retail Electric Business. Prepared by:
    Peter Kind Energy Infrastructure Advocates for Edison Electric Institute, January 2013

  • "Recent technological and economic changes are expected to challenge and transform the electric utility industry. These changes (or “disruptive challenges”) arise due to a convergence of factors, including: falling costs of distributed generation and other distributed energy resources (DER); an enhanced focus on development of new DER technologies; increasing customer, regulatory, and political interest in demand - side management technologies (DSM); government programs to incentivize selected technologies; the declining price of natural gas; slowing economic growth trends; and rising electricity prices in certain areas
    of the country. Taken together, these factors are potential “game changers” to the U.S. electric utility industry, and are likely to dramatically impact customers, employees, investors, and the availability of capital to fund future investment. The timing of such transformative changes is unclear, but with the potential for technological innovation (e.g., solar photovoltaic or PV) becoming economically viable due to this confluence of forces, the industry and its stakeholders must proactively assess the impacts and alternatives available to address disruptive challenges in a timely manner. This paper considers the financial risks and investor implications related to disruptive challenges, the potential strategic responses to these challenges, and the likely investor expectations to utility plans going forward. There are valuable lessons to be learned from other industries, as well as prior utility sector paradigm shifts, that can assist us in exploring risks and potential strategic responses."

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    April 15, 2013
    * Agencies Provide Additional Instructions for Submission of Some Resolution Plans

    News release: "The Federal Reserve Board (Board) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) on Monday announced the release of additional guidance, clarification and direction for the first group of institutions filing their resolutions plans pursuant to the Dodd-Frank Act. These 11 institutions filed their initial resolution plans with the Federal Reserve Board and the FDIC in 2012. Plans were required generally from U.S. bank holding companies with $250 billion or more in total nonbank assets and foreign-based bank holding companies with $250 billion or more in total U.S. nonbank assets. Following review of the initial resolution plans, the agencies have developed instructions for the firms to detail what information should be included in their 2013 resolution plan submissions."

  • Guidance for 2013§165(d) Annual Resolution Plan Submissions by Domestic Covered Companies that Submitted Initial Resolution Plans in 2012
  • Guidance for 2013§165(d) Annual Resolution Plan Submissions by Foreign-Based Covered Companies that Submitted Initial Resolution Plans in 2012
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * New GAO Reports - Corporate Tax Expenditures, President's Emergency Plan For Aids Relief
    • Corporate Tax Expenditures - Information on Estimated Revenue Losses and Related Federal Spending Programs, GAO-13-339, Mar 18, 2013
    • President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief - Per-Patient Costs Have Declined Substantially, but Better Cost Data Would Help Efforts to Expand Treatment, GAO-13-345, Mar 15, 2013
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    * EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2013

    "The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2012) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2013 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies."

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    * Next Stop, Innovation: What’s Ahead for Urban Mobility?

    Next Stop, Innovation: What’s Ahead for Urban Mobility?

  • "Transportation in the 21st century is entering a robust phase that mirrors the early years of the automobile, when gasoline, steam and electric technology vied for market share. Although electric cars led for a while, the internal-combustion engine reached dominance by 1920, with profound effects on American city-based public transportation — which atrophied as car ownership grew. Today, urban transit is making a comeback, as is the electric car. Congested highways still face emission concerns, but consumers now often have the choice of light and heavy rail. Car sharing, which began as a European phenomenon, has prospered in U.S. urban centers, along with bicycle sharing, vanpooling and other options. Government plays a major role in shaping efficient urban transportation systems. So far, regulations have proven an effective driver in the early development of new technology. But for ultimate success, environmentally friendly options also must satisfy consumers’ needs and meet economic goals. This special report, produced in coordination with Wharton’s Initiative for Global Environmental Leadership (IGEL), explores how cities are expanding their options for cleaner transportation, and how new technologies, innovations and incentives are revitalizing the sector."

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    * April 2013 Update to TIGER: Tracking Indices for the Global Economic Recovery

    Eswar Prasad and Karim Foda: "The global economic recovery remains stuck below takeoff speed, unable to achieve liftoff and facing the risk of stalling. Half-hearted fiscal austerity measures are proving to be a drag on growth, and monetary policy continues to shoulder the burden of limiting downside risks. The Brookings-FT TIGER index shows that growth momentum remains weak in nearly all major advanced and emerging market economies. Click a country name below the global Overall Growth Index to view charts for the main TIGER indexes by country and charts for the indicators that make up the indexes, which are broken down by real activity, financial and confidence indicators."

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    * Reauthorizing the Secure Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Act of 2000

    CRS - Reauthorizing the Secure Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Act of 2000, Katie Hoover, Analyst in Natural Resources Policy. February 26, 2013

  • "Many counties are compensated for the tax-exempt status of federal lands. Counties with national forest lands and with certain Bureau of Land Management lands have historically received a percentage of agency revenues, primarily from timber sales. However, timber sales have declined substantially—by more than 90% in some areas. Thus, Congress enacted the Secure Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Act of 2000 (SRS; P.L. 106-393) as a temporary, optional program of payments based on historic, rather than current, revenues. Authorization for SRS payments originally expired at the end of FY2006, but through several reauthorizations the program was extended through FY2012. Congressional debates over reauthorization considered the basis and level of compensation (historical, tax equivalency, etc.); the source of funds (receipts, a new tax or revenue source, etc.); the authorized and required uses of the payments; interaction with other compensation programs (notably Payments in Lieu of Taxes); and the duration of any changes (temporary or permanent). In addition, legislation with mandatory spending, such as SRS reauthorization, raises policy questions about increasing the deficit; current budget rules to restrain deficit spending typically impose a procedural barrier to such legislation, generally requiring offsets by additional receipts or reductions in other mandatory spending.

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    * Revisit Zero Inflation Policy: Feasible or Mirage?

    Tian, Ruilin, Revisit Zero Inflation Policy: Feasible or Mirage? (April 4, 2013). Journal of Macroeconomic Dynamics Research, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN

  • "This paper revisits the zero inflation policy in the post Great Recession period to bring the most updated facts about the effectiveness of the policy in the United States. We analyze the major benefits and costs of zero inflation. We point out that the benefits of the policy are not as significant as people thought, while the costs can easily exceed the benefits. In addition, we discuss the feasibility of the policy. The money wage rigidity, people’s suspicious attitude toward the disinflation policy, and the presence of zero lower bounds (ZLB) of interest rates place dramatic barriers to the implementation of the zero inflation policy, making it almost infeasible. Therefore, the Federal Reserve should achieve a balance between the costs and benefits of preventing inflation rather than target at zero inflation."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    April 14, 2013
    * World military spending falls, but China, Russia’s spending rises, says SIPRI

    News release: "World military expenditure totalled $1.75 trillion in 2012, a fall of 0.5 per cent in real terms since 2011, according to figures released today by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The comprehensive annual update of the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database is accessible here. The fall—the first since 1998—was driven by major spending cuts in the USA and Western and Central Europe, as well as in Australia, Canada and Japan. The reductions were, however, substantially offset by increased spending in Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America. China, the second largest spender in 2012, increased its expenditure by 7.8 per cent ($11.5 billion). Russia, the third largest spender, increased its expenditure by 16 per cent ($12.3 billion). Despite the drop, the global total was still higher in real terms than the peak near the end of the cold war. ‘We are seeing what may be the beginning of a shift in the balance of world military spending from the rich Western countries to emerging regions, as austerity policies and the drawdown in Afghanistan reduce spending in the former, while economic growth funds continuing increases elsewhere,’ said Dr Sam Perlo-Freeman, Director of SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme. ‘However, the USA and its allies are still responsible for the great majority of world military spending. The NATO members together spent a trillion dollars...In 2012 the USA’s share of world military spending went below 40 per cent for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. A declining trend that began in 2011 accelerated in 2012, with a drop in US military spending of 6 per cent in real terms to $682 billion."

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    * Wharton - CDOs Are Back: Will They Lead to Another Financial Crisis?

    Knowledge@Wharton: "Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), the bad boys of the financial crisis of 2008, are coming back. CDOs are securities that hold different types of debt, such as mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds, which are then sliced into varying levels of risk and sold to investors. With the Federal Reserve committed to keeping interest rates low, investors -- such as pension funds seeking higher returns -- are driving demand once again for these structured securities, which are riskier but provide more bang for the buck than safer bets such as Treasuries and investment-grade corporate bonds. This year, Deutsche Bank launched an $8.7 billion CDO in two tranches with payments ranging from 8% to 14.6%, garnering strong interest from investors, according to a January 24 story in Bloomberg News. In the U.S., firms such as Redwood Trust have started selling CDOs backed by commercial real estate for the first time since the credit crunch, Bloomberg reported in a January 14 article...In the last two quarters of 2012, global outstanding collateralized loan obligations, a type of CDO, surged to $384 billion after showing sequential declines since the fourth quarter of 2010, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. "Now we're going to see a surge in CDO issuance," Reynolds said. "These are the same instruments that were used in the last credit boom. "It was a boom, however, that preceded the financial crisis."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Careers in the growing field of information technology services

    Careers in the growing field of information technology services, by Lauren Csorny. April 2013

  • "Computers and information technology (IT) touch nearly every aspect of modern life. Information technology can help with such diverse tasks as driving motor vehicles and diagnosing diseases. IT enables seamless integration and communication between businesses anywhere in the world. To keep IT systems running, a large workforce is needed to maintain networks, create new software, and ensure information security. In addition, the proliferation of smart phones has given rise to a new “app economy,” in which new employment opportunities are available for workers who create the programs that run on mobile devices. Unlike many other sectors of the economy, employment in the computer systems design and related services industry (commonly known as IT services) was not significantly affected by the recession of 2007–2009. The industry lost about 1 percent of its employment in 2009 but regained momentum in 2010, when it surpassed the employment numbers from 2008. The high demand for the services provided by this industry has created a large number of fast-growing and high-paying IT jobs."

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    * BLS - A Profile of the Working Poor, 2011

    A Profile of the Working Poor, 2011 [April 2013]

  • "In 2011, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 46.2 million people, or 15.0 percent of the nation’s population, lived below the official poverty level. Although the poor were primarily children and adults who had not participated in the labor force during the year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 10.4 million individuals were among the “working poor” in 2011; this measure was little changed from 2010. The working poor are persons who spent at least 27 weeks in the labor force (that is, working or looking for work) but whose incomes still fell below the official poverty level. In 2011, the working-poor rate—the ratio of the working poor to all individuals in the labor force for at least 27 weeks—was 7.0 percent, slightly below the previous year’s figure (7.2 percent). Full-time workers were less likely to be among the working poor than were part-time workers. Among persons in the labor force for 27 weeks or more, 4.2 percent of those usually employed full time were classified as working poor, compared with 14.4 percent of part-time workers. Women were more likely than men to be among the working poor. Also, Blacks and Hispanics were more likely than Asians and Whites to be among the working poor."

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    * CDC - Percentage of Adults Who Often Felt Very Tired or Exhausted in the Past 3 Months

    QuickStats: Percentage of Adults Who Often Felt Very Tired or Exhausted in the Past 3 Months, by Sex and Age Group - National Health Interview Survey, United States, 2010-2011. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), April 12, 2013.

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    * What Can We Learn by Disaggregating the Unemployment - Vacancy Relationship?

    What Can We Learn by Disaggregating the Unemployment-Vacancy Relationship?, Public Policy Brief No. 12-3, by Rand Ghayad and William Dickens, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, October 2012.

  • "The Beveridge curve—the empirical relationship between unemployment and job vacancies—is thought to be an indicator of the efficiency of the functioning of the labor market. Normally, when job vacancies rise, unemployment falls, following a curved path that typically remains stable over long periods of time. When vacancies rise and unemployment does not fall (or falls too slowly) this may be an indication of problems of structural mismatch in the labor market leading to an increase in the lowest unemployment rate that can be maintained without increasing inflation (the NAIRU or nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment). Such a change in the vacancy-unemployment relationship occurred once in the 1970s and persisted through the late 1980s, and we have recently observed a similar change. This policy brief explores the nature of the recent change in the vacancy-unemployment relationship by disaggregating the data by industry, age, education, and duration of unemployment, and by examining blue- and white-collar groups separately."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Moral Science: Protecting Participants in Human Subjects Research

    "The Presidential Commission for the Study of Bioethical Issues today issued its report concerning federally-sponsored research involving human volunteers, concluding that current rules and regulations provide adequate safeguards to mitigate risk. In its report, Moral Science: Protecting Participants in Human Subjects Research, the Commission also recommended 14 changes to current practices to better protect research subjects, and called on the federal government to improve its tracking of research programs supported with taxpayer dollars. President Obama requested that the Commission undertake an assessment of research standards following the October 2010 revelation that the U.S. Public Health Service supported unethical research in Guatemala from 1946 to 1948 that involved intentionally exposing thousands of Guatemalans to sexually transmitted diseases without their consent. The President gave the Bioethics Commission two assignments: to oversee a thorough fact-finding investigation into the specifics of the studies (released September 13, 2011); and to assure that current rules for research participants protect people from harm or unethical treatment, domestically as well as internationally."

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    April 13, 2013
    * Draft Paper - The Political Foundations of Scarce and Unstable Credit

    Preliminary Conference Draft - The Political Foundations of Scarce and Unstable Credit, by Charles W. Calomiris and Stephen Haber, March 2013 - presented April 9, 2013

  • With respect to banking crises, economists have constructed models capable of explaining such events – despite their undesirable consequences – but those models cannot explain why the influences they identify express themselves in some countries much more than in others. Theories of banking crises posit three aspects of banking, some combination of which are presumed to explain the origins of crises: bank structure, interbank connections, and human nature. Bank structure refers to the maturity and liquidity mismatch between banks’ relatively illiquid and long-lived loans and their relatively liquid and short-lived liabilities. Structural theories regard banki ng crises as the result of the inherent exposure of banks to “liquidity risk” arising from this mismatch. Interbank connections can exacerbate crisis risk through the problem of risk “externalities.” Individual banks will choose their holdings of liquid assets and their leverage (debt relative to equity capital) based on their individual interests, and will not take into account the social costs that arise from the spill over effects (externalities) created by interbank connections. According to this class of crisis theories, the primary role of regulation is to “internalize” externalities by forcing banks to hold more cash assets and to maintain lower leverage ratios than they would choose voluntarily. The absence of sufficient regulation to internalize externalities, therefore, is the cause of banking crises. Other theories see banking crises as symptoms of human nature’s myopia, which drives destructive cycles of greed and fear."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Book review - The Invisible Playground: Phone Phreaking and the Criminalization of Curiosity

    LA Times Book Review by Jason Brown of Exploding the Phone: The Untold Story of the Teenagers and Outlaws Who Hacked Ma Bell by Phil Lapsley

  • "Lapsley’s book is the definitive history of the Golden Age of “phone phreaking” in the 1960s and 70s, when these quirks in the system were the basic tools used by dedicated network explorers to keep in touch and share knowledge. It documents a strange time when the most complex single machine on the planet could be controlled with bird whistles."
  • See also From “phreaks” to Apple: Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak’s “eureka!” moment - In the days before Apple, an article on "phone phreaking" turned the young pioneers into tech entrepreneurs, by Phil Lapsley

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    * Commentary - As housing market heals, it’s time to hasten the foreclosure process

    As housing market heals, it’s time to hasten the foreclosure process, by Mark Zandi. March 22, 2013

  • "It’s time to pull the band age off America’s foreclosure problem. The economy is ready to emerge from its recent dark period, but to make it happen soon we need to speed the resolution of millions of troubled home loans. Six years have passed since the crisis began, yet instead of accelerating, foreclosures have slowed. Until now this has been fortuitous. Time was needed to make sure strugglinghomeowners were treated properly, and to let the financial system digest its losses and the housing market absorb the flood of repossessions and short sales. But these objectives have been met, more or less. It is time to move on. House prices won’t rise and the economy won’t fully engage until more distresses properties are resolved and put back into ordinary use."
  • Related graphic - "Housing still in distress - Although the number of loans in delinquency or foreclosure in the United States has declined from the 2009 peak, there are still 3.6 million loans in trouble in the first quarter of 2012."
  • Related Permanent Link
    • April 12, 2013
    * Report to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors on monitoring implementation of Basel III regulatory reform

    "Full, timely and consistent implementation of Basel III remains fundamental to building a resilient financial system, maintaining public confidence in regulatory ratios and providing a level playing field for internationally active banks. This report updates G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors on progress in adoption of the Basel III regulatory reforms since the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision issued its October 2012 report. The scope of this update is broader than previous progress reports to the G20. In addition to reporting on the steps taken by Basel Committee member jurisdictions towards implementing the Basel III capital standards, which was the focus of the last report, this update also covers developments in other Basel III regulatory standards, and banks' progress in bolstering their capital bases. The report also highlights specific implementation-related shortcomings that are surfacing, which require continued policy and operational attention."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Authorities' access to trade repository data - consultative report

    Bank for International Settlements: "The consultative report Authorities' access to trade repository data was published for public comment on 11 April 2013. Trade repositories (TRs) are entities that maintain a centralised electronic record of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives transaction data. TRs will play a key role in increasing transparency in the OTC derivatives markets by improving the availability of data to authorities and the public in a manner that supports the proper handling and use of the data. For a broad range of authorities and official international financial institutions, it is essential to be able to access the data needed to fulfil; their respective mandates while maintaining the confidentiality of the data pursuant to the laws of relevant jurisdictions. The purpose of the report is to provide guidance to TRs and authorities on the principles that should guide authorities' access to data held in TRs for typical and non-typical data requests. The report also sets out possible approaches to addressing confidentiality concerns and access constraints. Accompanying the report is a cover note that lists the specific related issues for comment."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    April 11, 2013
    * Census Bureau Reports State Government Tax Collections Reach High of Nearly $800 Billion in FY 2012

    News release: "Overall state government tax collections increased $34.3 billion from fiscal year 2011 to a record $794.6 billion in 2012, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. The previous high for overall state tax collections was $779.7 billion in 2008. State tax revenue is up 13.0 percent from $703.4 billion in 2010, which was the lowest collected total since 2005. (State tax figures are represented as current whole dollars and are not adjusted for inflation.). Overall state tax revenue on individual income was at $280.4 billion for 2012, up 8.1 percent from 2011, while general sales tax revenue was at $242.7 billion for 2012, up 2.9 percent from 2011. License tax revenue increased to $54.0 billion for 2012, up 4.7 percent from 2011. Individual income tax revenue, general sales tax revenue and license tax revenue comprised 72.6 percent of all state government tax collections nationally...These new statistics come from the 2012 Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections, which contains annual statistics on the fiscal year tax collections of all 50 state governments, including receipts from compulsory fees. This survey provides an annual summary of taxes collected by states which fall broadly into categories such as property taxes, sales and gross receipts taxes, license taxes and income taxes. Statistics are further broken down into 25 subcategories which cover collection on items such as motor fuel taxes, severance taxes and hunting license taxes. Tax revenues also include related penalty and interest receipts of the governments."

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    * Foreign Ownership of U.S. Financial Assets: Implications of a Withdrawal

    CRS - Foreign Ownership of U.S. Financial Assets: Implications of a Withdrawal. James K. Jackson, Specialist in International Trade and Finance. April 8, 2013

  • This report provides an overview of the role foreign investment plays in the U.S. economy and an assessment of possible actions a foreign investor or a group of foreign investors might choose to take to liquidate their investments in the United States. Concerns over the potential impact of disinvestment have grown as national governments have become more active investors in the U.S. economy and as innovation in creating financial instruments has increased volatility in financial markets. Such concerns seem out of step with the experience of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, during which the dollar became the preferred safe haven investment for foreign investors. If some foreign investors were to liquidate their holdings, these actions could affect the U.S. economy in a number of ways due to the role foreign investment plays in the United States and due to the current mix of economic policies the United States has chosen. The impact of any such action on the economy would also depend on the overall condition and performance of the economy and the financial markets. If the economy were experiencing a strong rate of economic growth, the impact of a foreign withdrawal likely would be minimal, especially given the dynamic nature of credit markets. If a withdrawal occurred when the economy was not experiencing a robust rate of growth or if credit financial markets were under duress, the withdrawal could have a stronger effect on economic activity."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Economic Characteristics of Households in the United States: Third Quarter 2011

    "This set of tables examines the role of government-sponsored benefit programs and the labor market among the nation's people and households within the economic climate of the third quarter of 2011. Specifically, it presents statistics on average monthly income, participation in government-sponsored social welfare or social insurance programs, and labor force activity during the period.

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    * New GAO Reports: ATM Consumer Fees, Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel, Indian Health Service, Government's Long-Term Fiscal Outlook
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    * EU - General Secretariat of the Council Central Library: Think Tank Review

    "Welcome to issue 1 of the Review of Think Tank publications on EU affairs, compiled by the Central Library of the General Secretariat of the Council. The review provides abstracts and links to papers published in the previous month by think tanks in Brussels and elsewhere. It will be issued monthly and will be available on paper at the Central Library and online on our Intranet and Internet. It can be disseminated freely - the usual disclaimers apply. Think tank publications in the first section deal with EU institutions and politics, with a focus on the crisis and its impact on European societies, and with perspectives from Brussels, Barcelona, Kiel, London, Davos, Prague and Rome. The UK relationship with the EU also attracted a lot of attention from the think tank community in January. Some see a connection between the UK-EU relationship and the role of Ireland, which recently took over the 6-month Presidency of the EU Council." [Via Helene LeBlanc and kudos to the Central Library!]

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    * Report - Federal Student Loan Debt Burden of Noncompleters

    "Federal Student Loan Debt Burden of Noncompleters, a Statistics in Brief focuses on the median federal student debt burden accrued by students who do not complete a postsecondary credential within 6 years of enrolling. It is based on data from the two most recent longitudinal studies of beginning postsecondary students conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics: students who first enrolled in 1995-96 (as of 2001) and those who first enrolled in 2003-04 (as of 2009). Highlights include:

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    April 10, 2013
    * New GAO Reports - DHS Cybersecurity, DOJ Program Efficiency, NRC and Radiological Incidents, STEM Strategy
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    * The President's Budget for Fiscal Year 2014

    "The President’s Fiscal Year 2014 Budget demonstrates that we can make critical investments to strengthen the middle class, create jobs, and grow the economy while continuing to cut the deficit in a balanced way. The President believes we must invest in the true engine of America’s economic growth – a rising and thriving middle class. He is focused on addressing three fundamental questions: How do we attract more jobs to our shores? How do we equip our people with the skills needed to do the jobs of the 21st Century? How do we make sure hard work leads to a decent living? The Budget presents the President’s plan to address each of these questions. To make America once again a magnet for jobs, the Budget invests in high-tech manufacturing and innovation, clean energy, and infrastructure, while cutting red tape to help businesses grow. To give workers the skills they need to compete in the global economy, it invests in education from pre-school to job training. To ensure hard work is rewarded, it raises the minimum wage to $9 an hour so a hard day’s work pays more."

  • "Issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Budget of the United States Government is a collection of documents that contains the budget message of the President, information about the President's budget proposals for a given fiscal year, and other budgetary publications that have been issued throughout the fiscal year. Other related and supporting budget publications are included, which may vary from year to year. GPO has signed and certified the PDF files to assure users that the online documents are official and authentic."

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    * FTC Submits Fiscal Year 2014 Budget Request and Performance Plans to Congress

    "The Federal Trade Commission has submitted its Fiscal Year 2014 budget request to Congress, including the FY 2014 Budget Overview Statement, and FY 2013 and FY 2014 Performance Plans required under the Government Performance and Results and Modernization Act of 2010. The FTC’s formal budget request was submitted to Congress on April 10, 2013, in support of the President’s FY 2014 budget for the federal government."

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    * NYT & EU - Tracking Europe's Debt Crisis

    NYT Graphic: "The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low 0.75 percent, as expected. The head of the E.C.B., Mario Draghi, said following the rate decision that the recent bailout of Cyprus showed the bank’s determination to shore up the euro. The Bank of England also kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged amid concern that the British economy fell back into recession at the beginning of the year."

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    * U.S.-China Military Contacts: Issues for Congress

    CRS: U.S.-China Military Contacts: Issues for Congress. Shirley A. Kan, Specialist in Asian Security Affairs, March 19, 2013

  • "This CRS report, updated as warranted, discusses policy issues regarding military-to-military (mil-to-mil) contacts with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and provides a record of major contacts and crises since 1993. The United States suspended military contacts with China and imposed sanctions on arms sales in response to the Tiananmen Crackdown in 1989. In 1993, the Clinton Administration re-engaged with the top PRC leadership, including China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Renewed military exchanges with the PLA have not regained the closeness reached in the 1980s, when U.S.-PRC strategic cooperation against the Soviet Union included U.S. arms sales to China. Improvements and deteriorations in overall bilateral relations have affected military contacts, which were close in 1997-1998 and 2000, but marred by the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, mistaken NATO bombing of a PRC embassy in 1999, the EP- 3 aircraft collision crisis in 2001, and aggressive maritime confrontations (including in 2009)."

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    * Report - Banks that Used the Small Business Lending Fund to Exit TARP

    Banks that Used the Small Business Lending Fund to Exit TARP, Office of the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program. April 9, 2013

  • "On September 27, 2010, Congress created the Small Business Lending Fund (“SBLF”) as part of the Small Business Jobs Act of 2010, which permitted Treasury to invest up to $30 billion in eligible small banks to increase “the availability of credit for small businesses.” Unlike the Troubled Asset Relief Program (“TARP”), SBLF incentivized lending by rewarding increases in lending with lower rates that a bank would pay the Government for the use of the money (known as the dividend rate). The scope and scale of SBLF were not as expected, with most of the money going to banks already in TARP. Treasury invested only $4 billion of the $30 billion available – two - thirds of which ($2.7 billion) went to 137 TARP banks that used $2.1 billion in SBLF funds to exit TARP in 2011. As part of the Office of the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program’s (“SIGTARP”) continuing oversight of TARP, SIGTARP conducted this review to determine whether Treasury and regulators consistently evaluated applications submitted by TARP banks to refinance into SBLF."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    April 09, 2013
    * New GAO Reports - Reduce Multiple Programs, Government Efficiency And Effectiveness,
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    * Federal Reserve Board - Payments to 4.2 million borrowers covered by foreclosure agreement to begin April 12

    News release: "Payments to 4.2 million borrowers are scheduled to begin on April 12 following an agreement reached by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve Board with 13 mortgage servicers. The agreement, which was reached earlier this year, provides $3.6 billion in cash payments to borrowers whose homes were in any stage of the foreclosure process in 2009 or 2010 and whose mortgages were serviced by one of the following companies, their affiliates, or subsidiaries: Aurora, Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, MetLife Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Sovereign, SunTrust, U.S. Bank, and Wells Fargo. The payments will range from $300 to $125,000. For borrowers whose mortgages were serviced by 11 of the 13 servicers--all servicers but Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley--checks will be sent in several waves beginning with 1.4 million checks on April 12. The final wave is expected in mid-July 2013. More than 90 percent of the total payments to borrowers at those 11 servicers are expected to have been sent by the end of April. Information about payments to borrowers whose mortgages were serviced by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will be announced in the near future...regulators have published the payment amounts and number of people in each category on their web sites (OCC) and (Federal Reserve)."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Insurance and financial stability: a Basel view

    Insurance and financial stability: a Basel view. "Prepared remarks by Jaime Caruana, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements, before the International Association of Insurance Supervisors, Bottmingen, Switzerland, 20 March 2013. BIS General Manager Jaime Caruana speaks about the importance of the work that the International Association of Insurance Supervisors and the supervisory community are undertaking. He highlights three major challenges:

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    * Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China

    Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China, by Carsten A Holz and Aaron Mehrotra. Working Papers No 409, April 2013

  • "This study finds that the growth in labour costs in China is not passed through fully to final prices in China, neither in the tradable goods sector nor in the economy as a whole. This probably reflects the strong pressure on profit margins from a highly competitive environment, especially in manufactured goods. The potential implications of labour cost increases in China for global inflation pressures are also discussed."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * EPIC Sues FBI to Obtain Details of Massive Biometric ID Database

    "EPIC has filed a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against the FBI to obtain documents about "Next Generation Identification", a massive database with biometric identifiers on millions of Americans. The EPIC lawsuit follows the FBI's failure to respond to EPIC's earlier FOIA requests for technical specifications and contracts. According to EPIC's complaint, "When completed, the NGI system will be the largest biometric database in the world." NGI aggregates fingerprints, DNA profiles, iris scans, palm prints, voice identification profiles, photographs, and other identifying information. The FBI will use facial recognition to match images in the database against facial images obtained from CCTV and elsewhere. For more information, see EPIC v. FBI - Next Generation Identification, EPIC: Biometric Identifiers and EPIC: Face Recognition."

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    * Until Debt Do Us Part: Subnational Debt, Insolvency, and Markets

    Canuto, Otaviano; Liu, Lili. 2013. Until Debt Do Us Part: Subnational Debt, Insolvency, and Markets.© Washington, DC: World Bank. Date: 2013-02-13

  • "With decentralization and urbanization, the debts of state and local governments and of quasi-public agencies have grown in importance. Rapid urbanization in developing countries requires large-scale infrastructure financing to help absorb influxes of rural populations. Borrowing enables state and local governments to capture the benefits of major capital investments immediately and to finance infrastructure more equitably across multiple generations of service users. With debt comes the risk of insolvency. Subnational debt crises have reoccurred in both developed and developing countries. Restructuring debt and ensuring its sustainability confront moral hazard and fiscal incentives in a multilevel government system; individual subnational governments might free-ride common resources, and public officials at all levels might shift the cost of excessive borrowing to future generations. This book brings together the reform experiences of emerging economies and developed countries. Written by leading practitioners and experts in public finance in the context of multilevel government systems, the book examines the interaction of markets, regulators, subnational borrowers, creditors, national governments, taxpayers, ex-ante rules, and ex-post insolvency systems in the quest for subnational fiscal discipline. Such a quest is intertwined with a country’s historical, political, and economic context. The formal legal framework interacts with political reality to influence the dynamics of and incentives for reform. Often, the resolution of a subnational debt crisis unfolds in the context of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms. The book includes reforms that have not been covered by previous literature, such as those of China, Colombia, France, Hungary, Mexico, and South Africa. The book also presents a comprehensive review of how the United States developed its debt market for state and local local governments through a series of reforms that are path dependent, including the reforms and lessons learned following state defaults in the 1840s and the debates that shaped the enactment of Chapter 9 of the Bankruptcy Code in 1937. Looking forward, pressures on subnational finance are likely to continue—from the fragility of global recovery, the potentially higher cost of capital, refinancing risks, and sovereign risks. This book is essential reading for anyone wanting to know the challenges and reform options in debt restructuring, insolvency frameworks, and public debt market development."

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    April 08, 2013
    * Reduce, reuse, recycle: green technologies and practices at work

    BLS - Reduce, reuse, recycle: green technologies and practices at work, by Audrey Watson: "Fifty-seven percent of businesses in the United States used green technologies or practices to improve energy efficiency within their establishments in August 2011, and over half used green technologies and practices to reduce or eliminate the creation of waste materials as a result of operations. These are some of the results from the first BLS Green Technologies and Practices (GTP) survey, published in June 2012. However, the previously published GTP data offer only a partial look at the extent to which businesses used green technologies and practices. For example, the data do not reveal whether establishments typically used a single green technology or practice, or were more likely to adopt combinations of GTPs. To address these topics, this issue of Beyond the Numbers uses a special tabulation of GTP establishment reports to supplement the published survey data with additional information on businesses’ use of multiple GTPs."

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    * New GAO Reports - NextGen Air Transportation System, Private Pensions
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    * The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) Block Grant

    CRS - The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) Block Grant: A Primer on TANF Financing and Federal Requirements. Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy - April 2, 2013

  • "The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) block grant provides federal grants to the 50 states, the District of Columbia, American Indian tribes, and the territories for a wide range of benefits, services, and activities. It is best known for helping states pay for cash welfare for needy families with children, but it funds a wide array of additional activities. TANF was created in the 1996 welfare reform law (P.L. 104-193). Current law funds TANF through September 30, 2013."

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    * New - Central Library of the General Secretariat of the Council of the European Union and of the European Council

    Carlo Marzocchi - Head of Sector, Library & Information Service: "The Council of the European Union is the European Union institution where the Member States' ministers responsible for specific areas (e.g. finance, health, education) meet to discuss issues of common concern within their countries. The European Council consists of the Heads of State, or Government, of the Member States, together with the President of the Council and the President of the Commission. The European Council provides the Union with the necessary impetus for its development and defines its general political directions and priorities. It does not exercise legislative functions. The administrative support to both institutions is ensured by the General Secretariat of the Council or GSC. The Central Library identifies and makes available to GSC staff a variety of information resources relevant to GSC core activities, in all 23 working languages of the European Union. Besides paper-based collections available in the reading room or through loans, the Central Library, together with the GSC's Legal Library and Language Library, selects and delivers a variety of online resources that can be accessed by all GSC staff, generally from within GSC premises. The Central Library holds over 100,000 monographs and EU publications. Newspapers and periodicals from EU Member States are available in the reading room. The Official Journal of the European Communities is available on paper, on microfiche (until 1997), on CD-ROM (from 1998 on) and via internet." [via Helene LeBlanc]

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    * CRS - Drones in Domestic Surveillance Operations

    Drones in Domestic Surveillance Operations: Fourth Amendment Implications and Legislative Responses. Richard M. Thompson II, Legislative Attorney. April 3, 2013

  • "The prospect of drone use inside the United States raises far-reaching issues concerning the extent of government surveillance authority, the value of privacy in the digital age, and the role of Congress in reconciling these issues. Drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), are aircraft that can fly without an onboard human operator. An unmanned aircraft system (UAS) is the entire system, including the aircraft, digital network, and personnel on the ground. Drones can fly either by remote control or on a predetermined flight path; can be as small as an insect and as large as a traditional jet; can be produced more cheaply than traditional aircraft; and can keep operators out of harm’s way. These unmanned aircraft are most commonly known for their operations overseas in tracking down and killing suspected members of Al Qaeda and related organizations. In addition to these missions abroad, drones are being considered for use in domestic surveillance operations to protect the homeland, assist in crime fighting, disaster relief, immigration control, and environmental monitoring. Although relatively few drones are currently flown over U.S. soil, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) predicts that 30,000 drones will fill the nation’s skies in less than 20 years."

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    * CRS - North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues

    North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues. Mary Beth Nikitin Specialist in Nonproliferation, April 3, 2013

  • "This report summarizes what is known from open sources about the North Korean nuclear weapons program—including weapons-usable fissile material and warhead estimates—and assesses current developments in achieving denuclearization. Little detailed open-source information is available about the DPRK’s nuclear weapons production capabilities, warhead sophistication, the scope and success of its uranium enrichment program, or extent of its proliferation activities. In total, it is estimated that North Korea has between 30 and 50 kilograms of separated plutonium, enough for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons. North Korea’s plutonium production reactor at Yongbyon has been shuttered since its cooling tower was destroyed under international agreement in June 2008. However, on April 1, 2013, North Korea said it would resume operation of its plutonium production reactor. Experts estimate it will take approximately six months to restart. This would provide North Korea with approximately one bomb’s worth of plutonium per year."

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    * Speech by Chairman Bernanke on stress testing banks

    Chairman Ben S. Bernanke At the "Maintaining Financial Stability: Holding a Tiger by the Tail" financial markets conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Stone Mountain, Georgia
    April 8, 2013

  • "...we currently have two distinct but related supervisory programs that rely on stress testing. The first is the stress testing required by the Dodd-Frank Act, which we have shortened to the acronym DFAST--the Dodd-Frank Act stress tests. The purpose of DFAST is to quantitatively assess how bank capital levels would fare in stressful economic and financial scenarios. The second program, called the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, or CCAR, combines the quantitative results from the stress tests with more-qualitative assessments of the capital planning processes used by banks. For example, under CCAR, supervisors evaluate the ability of banks to model losses for various categories of loans and securities and to estimate earnings and capital requirements in alternative scenarios. We recently completed the first set of DFAST stress tests and disclosed the results, followed a week later by the disclosure of our CCAR findings, which included our qualitative assessments of firms' capital planning."
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    * Report - The U.S. Continues to Be One of the Least Taxed of the Developed Countries

    "The U.S. was the third least taxed country in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2010, the most recent year for which OECD has complete data. Of all the OECD countries, which are essentially the countries the U.S. trades with and competes with, only Chile and Mexico collect less taxes as a percentage of their overall economy (as a percentage of gross domestic product, or GDP). This sharply contradicts the widely held view among many members of Congress that taxes are already high enough in the U.S. and that any efforts to reduce the federal deficit should therefore take the form of cuts in government spending. As the graph to the right illustrates, in 2010, the total (federal, state and local) tax revenue collected in the U.S. was equal to 24.8 percent of the U.S.’s GDP. The total taxes collected by other OECD countries that year was equal to 33.4 percent of combined GDP of those countries."

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    * WikiLeaks Launches Public Library of US Diplomacy

    News release: "The Kissinger Cables are part of today's launch of the WikiLeaks Public Library of US Diplomacy (PlusD), which holds the world's largest searchable collection of United States confidential, or formerly confidential, diplomatic communications. As of its launch on April 8, 2013 it holds 2 million records comprising approximately 1 billion words. WikiLeaks' publisher Julian Assange stated: "The collection covers US involvements in, and diplomatic or intelligence reporting on, every country on Earth. It is the single most significant body of geopolitical material ever published."

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    April 07, 2013
    * Recovering from the Global Financial Crisis: Achieving Financial Stability in Times of Uncertainty

    Ojo, Marianne, Recovering from the Global Financial Crisis: Achieving Financial Stability in Times of Uncertainty (April 4, 2013). Business Expert Press, June 2013. Available at SSRN

  • "Why are some global financial crises more difficult to recover from and overcome than others? What steps are necessary in ensuring that financial stability and recovery is facilitated? What kind of environment has the previous financial environment evolved to and what kind of financial products have also contributed to greater vulnerability in the triggering of systemic risks? These are amongst some of the questions which this book attempts to address. In highlighting the role and importance of various actors in post crises reforms and the huge impacts certain factors and products have contributed in exacerbating the magnitude and speed of transmission of financial contagion, it also provides an insight into why global financial crises have become more complicated to address than was previously the case. As well as considering and highlighting why matters related to pro cyclicality and capital measures should not constitute the sole focus of attention of the G20's initiatives, the book is aimed at identifying other important issues such as liquidity risks and requirements which have constituted, to a large extent, the focus of international standard setters and regulators. It also aims to direct regulators, central bank officials and supervisors, academics, business and legal professionals and other relevant interested parties in the field to current and previously ignored issues such as the "cartelisation" of capital markets. The need and concern for increased regulation of bond, equity markets, as well as other complex financial instruments which can be traded in OTC (Over-the-Counter) derivatives markets is evidenced by Basel III's focus. "Cartelisation" and organised activities relating to rate rigging in global capital markets have been evidenced recently by sophisticated EURIBOR and LIBOR rate rigging practices and occurences."

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    • * "Leaning Against the Wind" and the Timing of Monetary Policy

    "Leaning Against the Wind" and the Timing of Monetary Policy, by Itai Agur, Maria Demertzis. April 03, 2013

  • "If monetary policy is to aim also at financial stability, how would it change? To analyze this question, this paper develops a general-form framework. Financial stability objectives are shown to make monetary policy more aggressive: in reaction to negative shocks, cuts are deeper but shorter-lived than otherwise. By keeping cuts brief, monetary policy tightens as soon as bank risk appetite heats up. Within this shorter time span, cuts must then be deeper than otherwise to also achieve standard objectives. Finally, we analyze how robust this result is to the presence of a bank regulatory tool, and provide a parameterized example."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * IMF - Jobs and Growth - Analytical and Operational Considerations for the Fund

    IMF Report: "Job creation and growth with inclusion are imperatives that resonate today in every country. While some advanced countries face the challenge of supporting aggregate demand with limited fiscal space in the aftermath of the Great Recession, many countries have to address ways to generate growth and create jobs in the face of the strong ongoing global megatrends of technological change, globalization, and significant shifts in demographic trends. The latter includes rapid population aging in some parts of the world, and the entry of a large number of new workers into the labor force in others. Low female labor force participation represents a significant missed opportunity to strengthen economic development and growth in many countries."

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    * Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions declined in 2012

    EIA: "Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2012 were the lowest in the United States since 1994, at 5.3 billion metric tons of CO2 (see figure above). With the exception of 2010, emissions have declined every year since 2007. The largest drop in emissions in 2012 came from coal, which is used almost exclusively for electricity generation. During 2012, particularly in the spring and early summer, low natural gas prices led to competition between natural gas- and coal-fired electric power generators. Lower natural gas prices resulted in reduced levels of coal generation, and increased natural gas generation—a less carbon-intensive fuel for power generation, which shifted power generation from the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel (coal) to the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel (natural gas)."

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    * Does Auditor 'Commentary' in Unqualified Audit Reports Reflect Financial Misstatement Risk?

    Czerney, Keith, Schmidt, Jaime J. and Thompson, Anne, Does Auditor 'Commentary' in Unqualified Audit Reports Reflect Financial Misstatement Risk? (April 1, 2013). Available at SSRN

  • "According to auditing standards, explanatory language added at the auditor’s discretion to unqualified audit reports should not indicate increased financial misstatement risk. However, in practice, an auditor is unlikely to add language that would strain the auditor-client relationship absent concerns about the client’s financial statements. Using a sample of 30,825 financial statements issued with unqualified audit opinions during 2000-2009, we find that audit reports containing non-going-concern explanatory language are 17-56% more likely to be subsequently restated than financial statements without such language. This association is limited to “emphasis of a matter” language, references to the application of accounting principles, and discussion of previous restatements. In addition, the financial statement accounts noted in explanatory language typically correspond to the accounts subsequently restated. In sum, our results suggest that some auditor commentary is associated with financial misstatement risk."

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    * IRS Releases the Dirty Dozen Tax Scams for 2013

    News release: "The Internal Revenue Service...issued its annual “Dirty Dozen” list of tax scams, reminding taxpayers to use caution during tax season to protect themselves against a wide range of schemes ranging from identity theft to return preparer fraud. The Dirty Dozen listing, compiled by the IRS each year, lists a variety of common scams taxpayers can encounter at any point during the year. But many of these schemes peak during filing season as people prepare their tax returns. "This tax season, the IRS has stepped up its efforts to protect taxpayers from a wide range of schemes, including moving aggressively to combat identity theft and refund fraud," said IRS Acting Commissioner Steven T. Miller. "The Dirty Dozen list shows that scams come in many forms during filing season. Don't let a scam artist steal from you or talk you into doing something you will regret later." Illegal scams can lead to significant penalties and interest and possible criminal prosecution. IRS Criminal Investigation works closely with the Department of Justice (DOJ) to shutdown scams and prosecute the criminals behind them."

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    * Working Paper - Italian Sovereign Spreads

    Italian Sovereign Spreads: Their Determinants and Pass-through to Bank Funding Costs and Lending Conditions, by Edda Zoli, April 03, 2013

  • "Volatility in Italian sovereign spreads has increased since mid-2011. This paper finds that news on the euro area debt crisis and country specific events were important drivers of sovereign spreads. Movements in sovereign spreads affect CDS spreads and bond yields of Italian banks, and are transmitted rapidly to firm lending rates. Banks with lower capital ratios and higher nonperforming loans were found to be more sensitive to swings in sovereign spreads. Credit supply constraints due to bank funding shortages from the sovereign debt crisis were a major factor behind the lending slowdown in late 2011, while in 2012 weak demand appears to have been driving changes in credit more than supply."
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    April 05, 2013
    * New GAO Reports: Border Security, Critical Infrastructure Protection, SEC's Internal Controls
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    * BLS - Employment Situation Summary, March 2013

    News release: "Nonfarm payroll employment edged up in March (+88,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in professional and business services and in health care but declined in retail trade. Household Survey Data - Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.7 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.6 percent, were little changed in March. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.9 percent), adult women (7.0 percent), teenagers (24.2 percent), whites (6.7 percent), blacks (13.3 percent), and Hispanics (9.2 percent) showed little or no change in March. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.0 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from
    a year earlier. In March, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.6 million. These individuals accounted for 39.6 percent of the unemployed. The civilian labor force declined by 496,000 over the month, and the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 63.3 percent. The employment-
    population ratio, at 58.5 percent, changed little...Among the marginally attached, there were 803,000 discouraged workers in March, little
    changed from a year earlier."

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    * NOAA - New technology will enable scientists to forecast patterns of whale traffic in the Pacific

    News release: "The waters off the coast of California are heavily trafficked, not only by ships, but also by those other seagoing behemoths, the great whales. Blue, fin, humpback and gray whales all migrate up and down the West Coast. When whales and ships come into contact, however, the results can be fatal. Ship strikes are a significant cause of mortality for these species, all of which, other than the gray whale, are currently listed as endangered. If ships knew when whales were in the area then they could steer clear or temporarily slow down. But whales spend most of their time hidden beneath the waves. By the time a ship’s captain spots a whale, it’s often already too late. But a team of scientists from NOAA, Oregon State University, and the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are working on a solution. It’s called WhaleWatch, and it’s the result of decades of work. Bruce Mate of OSU has been tracking whales using satellite tags for more than twenty years. All the while, ocean observing satellites have been recording physical conditions on the ocean. By overlaying the tracking data atop maps showing ocean conditions, the researchers are deciphering the combination of conditions most likely to attract whales. Hopefully, they will soon be able to issue whale advisories based on data as it streams in from the satellites."

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    April 04, 2013
    * New GAO Reports - Foreclosure Review, Inter-Agency Info Sharing, Political Intelligence
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    * CDC Vital Signs - Preventing Repeat Teen Births

    April 2013 - Preventing Repeat Teen Births: "Although teen birth rates have been falling for the last two decades, more than 365,000 teens, ages 15–19, gave birth in 2010. Teen pregnancy and childbearing can carry high health, emotional, social, and financial costs for both teen mothers and their children. Teen mothers want to do their best for their own health and that of their child, but some can become overwhelmed by life as a parent. Having more than one child as a teen can limit the teen mother's ability to finish her education or get a job. Infants born from a repeat teen birth are often born too small or too soon, which can lead to more health problems for the baby."

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    April 03, 2013
    * EPIC: EU Takes Action Against Google for Privacy Policy Meltdown

    EPIC: "Data protection agencies in six European countries have announced enforcement actions against Google. The agencies acted after Google ignored recommendations to comply with European data protection law. "It is now up to each national data protection authority to carry out further investigations according to the provisions of its national law transposing European legislation," the French data protection authority said. The enforcement action follows from Google's March 2012 decision to combine user data across 60 Internet services to create detailed profiles on Internet users. Last year, EPIC sued the Federal Trade Commission to force the FTC to enforce the terms of a settlement with Google that would have prohibited Google's changes in business practices. Google's revised privacy policies also prompted objections from state attorneys general, members of Congress, and IT managers in the government and private sectors. For more information, see EPIC: Google Buzz and EPIC: Enforcement of Google Consent Order."

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    * NOAA, partners: Thin, low Arctic clouds played an important role in the massive 2012 Greenland ice melt

    News release: "Clouds over the central Greenland Ice Sheet last July were “just right” for driving surface temperatures there above the melting point, according to a new study by scientists at NOAA and the Universities of Wisconsin, Idaho and Colorado. The study, published today in Nature, found that thin, low-lying clouds allowed the sun’s energy to pass through and warm the surface of the ice, while at the same time trapping heat near the surface of the ice cap. This combination played a significant role in last summer's record-breaking melt. “Thicker cloud conditions would not have led to the same amount of surface warming,” said Matthew Shupe, research meteorologist with NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado and the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. “To understand the region’s future, you’ll need to understand its clouds. Our finding has implications for the fate of ice throughout the Arctic.”

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    * Federal Reserve Board approves final rule establishing requirements for determining when a company is "predominantly engaged in financial activities"

    News release: "The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced approval of a final rule that establishes the requirements for determining when a company is "predominantly engaged in financial activities." The requirements will be used by the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) when it considers the potential designation of a nonbank financial company for consolidated supervision by the Federal Reserve. Under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a nonbank financial company can be designated by the FSOC for supervision by the Federal Reserve only if it is "predominantly engaged in financial activities." A company is considered to be predominantly engaged in financial activities if 85 percent or more of the company's revenues or assets are related to activities that are defined as financial in nature under the Bank Holding Company Act. Additionally, the FSOC may issue recommendations for primary financial regulatory agencies to apply new or heightened standards to a financial activity or practice conducted by companies that are predominantly engaged in financial activities."

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    * FTC Warns Data Brokers That Provide Tenant Rental Histories They May Be Subject to Fair Credit Reporting Act

    News release: "The Federal Trade Commission has warned the operators of six websites that share information about consumers’ rental histories with landlords that they may be subject to the requirements of the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA). The letters inform the recipients that if they meet certain criteria, namely collecting information on tenants and their rental history and providing that information to landlords so they can make judgments about renting to those tenants, they are considered credit reporting agencies and are subject to certain legal requirements."

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    * Returning Home from Iraq and Afghanistan: Needs of Veterans, Service Members, and Their Families

    "As of December 2012, Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) in Iraq have resulted in the deployment of about 2.2 million troops; there have been 2,222 US fatalities in OEF and Operation New Dawn (OND)1 and 4,422 in OIF. The numbers of wounded US troops exceed 16,000 in Afghanistan and 32,000 in Iraq. In addition to deaths and morbidity, the operations have unforeseen consequences that are yet to be fully understood. In contrast with previous conflicts, the all-volunteer military has experienced numerous deployments of individual service members; has seen increased deployments of women, parents of young children, and reserve and National Guard troops; and in some cases has been subject to longer deployments and shorter times at home between deployments. Numerous reports in the popular press have made the public aware of issues that have pointed to the difficulty of military personnel in readjusting after returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. Many of those who have served in OEF and OIF readjust with few difficulties, but others have problems in readjusting to home, reconnecting with family members, finding employment, and returning to school...The study consisted of two phases. The Phase 1 task was to conduct a preliminary assessment. The Phase 2 task was to provide a comprehensive assessment of the physical, psychologic, social, and economic effects of deployment on and identification of gaps in care for members and former members, their families, and their communities. The Phase 1 report was completed in March 2010 and delivered to the Department of Defense (DOD), the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), and the relevant committees of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The secretaries of DOD and VA responded to the Phase 1 report in September 2010. Returning Home from Iraq and Afghanistan: Assessment of Readjustment Needs of Veterans, Service Members, and Their Families fulfills the requirement for Phase 2."

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    * UK government has published its annual report on work to protect the UK from terrorism

    Protecting the public from terrorism: "Responding to the threat from terrorism remains a top priority, the Home Secretary said today. Publishing the annual report for CONTEST, the government’s strategy for countering terrorism, the Home Secretary set out what has been done to keep the country safe and prevent terror attacks, including during the Olympics."

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    April 02, 2013
    * Petition - Require free online permanent public access to ALL federal government information and publications

    James R. Jacobs - Government Information Librarian - Stanford University: "...[we have created] a petition on the White House's "We the People" petition site. If you believe in free permanent public access to authentic government information, we hope you'll sign the petition. And if every one of the @2500 govdoc-l subscribers signs, posts to their Facebook accounts and sends to 10 friends who sign, we'll reach our goal of 100,000 signatures by April 11, 2013! If we get enough signatures, the White House will respond and the FDLP community will move forward by leaps and bounds." See the Petition and the Context.
    WE PETITION THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION TO:
    Require free online permanent public access to ALL federal government information and publications.
    1. Assure that GPO has the funds to continue to maintain and develop the Federal Digital System (FDsys).
    2. Raise ALL Congressional, Executive & Judicial branch information, publications & data to the level of federally funded scientific information & publish ALL government information as "Open Access."
    3. Mandate the free permanent public access to other Federal information currently maintained in fee-based databases - including the Public Access to Court Electronic Records (PACER), the National Technical Reports Library (NTRL), & USA Trade Online.
    4. Establish an interagency, govt-wide strategy to manage the entire lifecycle of digital government information w/ FDLP Libraries - publication, access, usability, bulk download, long-term preservation, standards & metadata.

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    * BIS - Constructing a real estate price index: the Moroccan experience

    Constructing a real estate price index: the Moroccan experience - IFC Working Papers No 9, April 2013.

  • "The real estate sector became a centre of attention over the last few years, given the extent of its effects on financial and real spheres and its implications for monetary policy decisions and financial stability. In the absence of reliable indicators for the Moroccan properties prices, The Central Bank of Morocco and the Land Registry Office began in 2010 a long process of constructing a quarterly real estate price index (REPI) based on the Office's Databases, which contain detailed information on all property transactions registered at the national level. This first experience at the national level represents one of the pioneering attempts for the African continent. It aims to improve the transparency and well functioning of the property market, to refine the analysis of inflationary risks and to monitor real estate risk in the banking system."
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    * SEC Says Social Media OK for Company Announcements if Investors Are Alerted

    "The Securities and Exchange Commission today issued a report that makes clear that companies can use social media outlets like Facebook and Twitter to announce key information in compliance with Regulation Fair Disclosure (Regulation FD) so long as investors have been alerted about which social media will be used to disseminate such information. The SEC’s report of investigation confirms that Regulation FD applies to social media and other emerging means of communication used by public companies the same way it applies to company websites. The SEC issued guidance in 2008 clarifying that websites can serve as an effective means for disseminating information to investors if they’ve been made aware that’s where to look for it. Today’s report clarifies that company communications made through social media channels could constitute selective disclosures and, therefore, require careful Regulation FD analysis."

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    * Euro area unemployment rate at 12.0%

    News release, April 3, 2013: "The euro area (EA17) seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate was 12.0% in February 2013, stable compared with January 4. The EU27 unemployment rate was 10.9%, up from 10.8% in the previous month. In both zones, rates have risen markedly compared with February 2012, when they were 10.9% and 10.2 % respectively. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union." [The euro area (EA17) consists of
    Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland. The EU27 includes Belgium (BE), Bulgaria (BG), the Czech Republic (CZ), Denmark (DK), Germany (DE), Estonia (EE), Ireland (IE), Greece (EL), Spain (ES), France (FR), Italy (IT), Cyprus (CY), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Luxembourg (LU), Hungary (HU), Malta (MT), the Netherlands (NL), Austria (AT), Poland (PL), Portugal (PT), Romania (RO), Slovenia (SI), Slovakia (SK), Finland (FI), Sweden (SE) and the United Kingdom (UK)]

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    * CRS - Argentina’s Post-Crisis Economic Reform: Challenges for U.S. Policy

    Argentina’s Post-Crisis Economic Reform: Challenges for U.S. Policy. J.F. Hornbeck, Specialist in International Trade and Finance,March 26, 2013

  • "U.S.-Argentine economic relations have long been mutually beneficial. In recent years, however, they have been strained at times, in part because of Argentina’s struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability, and also because of specific policy choices that have made the business environment difficult to navigate since the country’s 2001 financial crisis. Following a steep currency devaluation and the largest sovereign default in history, Argentina entered a deep recession with high unemployment and social upheaval. It brought to power a new government, and with it a shift in economic policy away from market-oriented policies toward greater government management of the economy in pursuit of the stated Argentine goal of “social equity.” The initial policy responses intended to restore order and address the most pressing social problems evolved into permanent social programs. Government policies introduced many distortions into the economy, including high inflation, which have required regular adjustments in the international accounts to maintain economic stability. These include managed trade, capital controls, and limited currency conversion, among other policies that have earned the ire of international stakeholders."

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    * Trends in international arms transfers, 2012

    Trends in international arms transfers, 2012. Paul Holtom, Mark Bromley, Pieter D. Wezeman and Siemon T. Wezeman, SIPRI Fact Sheet

  • "The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database now contains information on all international transfers of major conventional weapons from 1950 to the end of 2012. It is the only publicly available resource providing consistent data on international arms transfers for this length of time. This Fact Sheet describes the trends in international arms transfers that are revealed by the new data. It lists the main suppliers and recipients for the period 2008–12 and describes the changes in regional trends."

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    * Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms

    Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms, 8 November 2010 (As Amended Through 15 March 2013)
    1. "Scope - The Joint Publication 1-02, Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms sets forth standard US military and associated terminology to encompass the joint activity of the Armed Forces of the United States. These military and associated terms, together with their definitions, constitute approved Department of Defense (DOD) terminology for general use by all DOD components.
    2. Purpose = This publication supplements standard English-language dictionaries and standardizes military and associated terminology to improve communication and mutualunderstanding within DOD, with other federal agencies, and among the United States and its allies..."

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    * IG Report - Approval of Contractor Executive Salaries by Department of Energy Personnel

    Department of Energy, Office of Inspector General Office of Audits and Inspections, Inspection Report: Approval of Contractor Executive Salaries by Department of Energy Personnel, DOE/IG-0882 March 2013.

  • "In April 2011, the Department of Energy awarded a n early $2.2 billion contract to URS|CH2M Oak Ridge, LLC, (UCOR) for the environmental cleanup at the East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. As a support provider for the Office of Environmental Management (EM), the Oak Ridge Office (ORO) is responsible for oversight of the UCOR contract, including analyzing and performing market analyses to assess the reasonableness of the proposed contractor executive salaries. The Department is the largest civilian contracting agency within the Federal government consisting of a contractor workforce of about 100,000, with some receiving executive salary."

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    * Executive Order -- Establishment of the Presidential Commission of Election Administration

    The Commission of Federal Election's mission: "The Commission shall identify best practices and otherwise make recommendations to promote the efficient administration of elections in order to ensure that all eligible voters have the opportunity to cast their ballots without undue delay, and to improve the experience of voters facing other obstacles in casting their ballots, such as members of the military, overseas voters, voters with disabilities, and voters with limited English proficiency."

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    April 01, 2013
    * New GAO Reports - Mi-17 Helicopters, Lobbyists' Compliance with Disclosure Requirements
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    * New York Fed Study Examines Appropriate Level of Foreign Currency Balances

    "Large foreign currency reserve balances may not be needed to maintain an effective exchange rate policy over the medium and long term, according to a recent study by staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In their study Do Industrialized Countries Hold the Right Foreign Exchange Reserves? New York Fed economists Linda Goldberg, Cindy Hull, and Sarah Stein note that the need for foreign currency reserves has been an important tenet of the post Bretton-Woods international financial order. Recent growth in the reserve balances of industrialized countries, however, raises questions about what level and composition of reserves are “right” for these countries. According to the authors, countries hold reserves as a tool for intervening in foreign exchange markets to potentially stabilize the value of their currency and as insurance against disruptions to capital market access. The authors note, however, that the evidence is mixed on whether foreign exchange interventions can influence exchange rate levels for more than a short period of time. In addition, authoritative metrics are lacking on the level of reserves needed for such interventions. If interventions achieve their effects on exchange rates by signaling the intentions of policymakers, the authors argue, then the purchase or sale of a small amount of reserves might suffice to send the appropriate message. Moreover, while reserves may provide insurance against a loss of access to the capital markets, countries may have other ways to alleviate funding pressures."

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    * Nearly Half in U.S. Say Gov't Environmental Efforts Lacking

    Gallup: "Americans tilt toward the view that the government is doing too little to protect the environment -- at 47% -- while 16% say it is doing too much. Another 35% say the government's efforts on the environment are about right. These views have not changed much since 2010, although Americans in most years between 1992 and 2006 were more likely than they are today to say the government was doing too little to protect the environment. The new data are from Gallup's annual Environment poll, conducted March 7-10. The Obama administration on Friday announced a new rule aimed at reducing air pollution by requiring the oil and gas industry to lower sulfur levels in gasoline. These findings suggest that about half of Americans -- those who say the government is doing too little to protect the environment -- may welcome the new rules in principle. And, some of those who say the government's efforts are currently about right may also favor the new actions, under the assumption that they represent a continuation of positively perceived ongoing efforts."

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    * EPA Proposes Achievable Cleaner Fuels and Cars Standard

    News release: "Based on extensive input from auto manufacturers, refiners, and states, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed sensible standards for cars and gasoline that will significantly reduce harmful pollution, prevent thousands of premature deaths and illnesses, while also enabling efficiency improvements in the cars and trucks we drive. These cleaner fuels and cars standards are an important component of the administration’s national program for clean cars and trucks, which also include historic fuel efficiency standards that are saving new vehicle owners at the gas pump today. Once fully in place, the standards will help avoid up to 2,400 premature deaths per year and 23,000 cases of respiratory ailments in children."

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    * Analysis of the Sandy Recovery Improvement Act of 2013

    CRS - Analysis of the Sandy Recovery Improvement Act of 2013, March 11, 2013

  • "Hurricane Sandy caused extensive human suffering and damage to public and private property. In response to this catastrophic event, Congress considered legislation to provide supplemental
    appropriations to federal disaster assistance programs. In addition, Congress considered revisions to the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (the Stafford Act, P.L. 93-288 as amended), which is the primary source of authorities for disaster assistance programs for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). As a result, Congress passed the Sandy Recovery Improvement Act of 2013, which was included as Division B of the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act, 2013 (P.L. 113-2). Division A of P.L. 113-2 provided a $50.7 billion package of disaster assistance largely focused on responding to Hurricane Sandy. Additionally, Congress increased the National Flood Insurance Program’s borrowing authority by $9.7 billion (from $20.725 billion to $30.425 billion) (P.L. 113-1). Both of these supplemental relief law are discussed separately in CRS Report R42869, FY2013 Supplemental Funding for Disaster Relief."

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    March 31, 2013
    * Commentary - We Need a Better, Simpler Narrative of US Privacy Laws

    Peter Fleischer, Global Privacy Counsel for Google: "On the global stage, Europe is convincing many countries around the world to implement privacy laws that follow the European model. The facts speak for themselves: in the last year alone, a dozen countries in Latin America and Asia have adopted euro-style privacy laws. Not a single country, anywhere, has followed the US-model. Indeed, what is the US model? People in the privacy profession know that the US has a dense "patchwork" model of privacy laws: every individual US State has numerous privacy laws, the Federal government has numerous sectoral laws, and numerous other "non-privacy" laws, like consumer protection laws, are regularly invoked in privacy matters. Regulators in many corners of government, ranging from State attorneys general, to the Federal Trade Commission, and armies of class action lawyers inspect every privacy issue for possible actions..."

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    * Report - Why are Recent College Graduates Underemployed?

    Why are Recent College Graduates Underemployed? University Enrollments and Labor Market Realities, By Richard Vedder, Christopher Denhart, and Jonathan Robe | January 2013. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (CCAP)

  • "Political leaders, prominent foundations, and college presidents have argued that the nation must increase the proportion of adults with college degrees in order for America to remain competitive in the global economy. Supporting those positions, some have issued studies demonstrating that there is a significant earnings premium associated with the possession of a college degree. That is, college graduates tend to earn more in the labor market compared with those with only a high-school education, a differential that is large enough to justify the expenditure of increasingly large sums of money necessary to finance a college degree. A less optimistic story points out that, while there are undoubtedly many who benefit —even quite substantially economically, from higher education, a not inconsequential number of Americans who obtain higher education do not achieve the economic gains traditionally accompanying the acquisition of college-level credentials. This study uses empirical evidence relating to labor markets to argue that a growing disconnect has evolved between employer needs and the volume and nature of college training of students, and that the growth of supply of college-educated labor is exceeding the growth in the demand for such labor in the labor market."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * EIA - Iran holds the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves and the world's second-largest natural gas reserves

    Iran Country Report: "Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), ranks among the world's top four holders of both proven oil and natural gas reserves. In 2012, Iran saw unprecedented drops in its oil exports as sanctions by the United States (U.S.) and European Union (EU) were tightened, targeting Iranian oil export revenues. Preliminary data show that Iran ranked fifth in terms of crude oil and condensate exports, which was in contrast to its third position only two years ago. Given the sanctions and resulting drop in production, export volumes likely will continue to be hampered. Iran has the world's second largest natural gas reserves, but the sector is underdeveloped and used mostly to meet domestic demand. In contrast to the decreasing oil production, natural gas development has been slowly expanding. Nonetheless, natural gas production has been lower than expected as a result of a lack of foreign investment and technology. Natural gas accounted for about 59 percent of Iran's total domestic energy consumption in 2010, with oil consumption at 39 percent of total energy use. Iran had marginal contributions from coal and hydropower."

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    * Report - 100 Years of Broken-Record Opposition to the Minimum Wage

    Consider the Source - 100 Years of Broken-Record Opposition to the Minimum Wage. National Employment Law Project / Cry Wolf Project March 2013

  • "In her Congressional testimony from 1959, Eleanor Roosevelt noted the repetitive quality of objections raised by minimum wage opponents over the previous five decades. More than 50 years later, it appears that nothing has changed. This report documents the rhetorical onslaught launched by minimum wage opponents over the past 100 years. Rather than approaching these claims at face value, we step back and review how minimum wage opponents have
    presented their case through roughly a century’s worth of public statements, congressional testimonies, editorials, media interviews, and other public records, devoting a critical eye to the trajectory of these criticisms over time."

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    * Urban Institute: Unemployment from a Child's Perspective

    Unemployment from a Child's Perspective, Julia Isaacs, March 25, 2013

  • "This issue brief examines unemployment from a child's perspective, reporting that 6.2 million children lived in families with unemployed parents in 2012. Many of these children live with parents who have been out of work six month or longer. Unemployment insurance covers only 36 percent of children with unemployed parents; unemployed parents are more likely to receive SNAP benefits than UI benefits. The brief provides estimates of children affected by unemployment by state and metropolitan area, considers the effects of parental job loss on child development, and reviews policies affecting the safety net for children of the unemployed."

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    * Report of Select Committee on Intelligence to US Senate covering the period January 5, 2011 - January 3, 2013

    Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence to United States Senate covering the period January 5, 2011 - January 3, 2013, 113th Congress, 1st Session, Senate Report 113-7.

  • "A major focus of the Committee's oversight agenda is the review of existing intelligence programs and proposed legislation to ensure that U.S. person privacy rights and civil liberties are not compromised during the collection of intelligence information. However, most of the Committee's oversight activities and efforts are, of necessity, done in secret in order to protect sources and methods vital to our nation's security. During the course of the 112th Congress, the Committee held numerous hearings, briefings, and meetings on a broad range of activities and programs performed by the seventeen elements of the Intelligence Community. Examples of these oversight activities include: the examination of intelligence support to U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq; the continued study of the threats posed by Iran; a review of the successful raid against Usama bin Ladin in Abbottabad, Pakistan; consideration of legislative proposals designed to counter the unauthorized disclosure of classified information to the media; and sustained concern about the cybersecurity threat."

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    March 30, 2013
    * Paying for college: Strategies to afford higher education today

    Paying for college: Strategies to afford higher education today - by Dennis Vilorio, an economist in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, BLS

  • "This article is a guide to affording higher education. The first section describes ways to plan for college expenses before enrolling. The second section explains how to finance higher education. The third section offers tips for money management before, during, and after college. Resources for more information are listed at the end of the article."

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    * Paying for college: Strategies to afford higher education today

    Paying for college: Strategies to afford higher education today - by Dennis Vilorio, an economist in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, BLS

  • "This article is a guide to affording higher education. The first section describes ways to plan for college expenses before enrolling. The second section explains how to finance higher education. The third section offers tips for money management before, during, and after college. Resources for more information are listed at the end of the article."

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    * Brookings - Do School Districts Matter?

    Do School Districts Matter?, by: Grover J. "Russ" Whitehurst, Matthew M. Chingos and Michael R. Gallaher

  • "School districts occupy center stage in education reform in the U.S. They manage nearly all public funding and are frequently the locus of federal and state reform initiatives, e.g., instituting meaningful teacher evaluation systems. The most charismatic leaders over the last decade, people such as Michelle Rhee and Joel Klein, have received considerable national media attention. Financial compensation for district leaders is high, with many being paid more than the chief state school officers who oversee the entire systems in which they serve. Some private philanthropies pour money into initiatives to improve district performance. Others invest in ways that suggest that they too think districts are important but as impediments to rather than instruments of reform...There are also districts that have displayed exceptional patterns of performance in terms of student achievement over the last decade, including districts that beat their demographic odds every year, districts that consistently underperformed, districts that had nose-dive declines, and districts that experienced transformative growth. These findings provide an empirical justification for efforts to improve student achievement through district-level reforms and should be a tantalizing fruit for those who want to better understand why some districts are better than others and translate that knowledge into action."

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    March 29, 2013
    * GAO Reports - CA High-Speed Passenger Rail, Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute
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    * Computer network support specialists is the largest newly defined occupation at 167,980

    "Computer network support specialists, with employment of 167,980 in May 2012, and nurse practitioners, with employment of 105,780, were 2 of the largest new occupations in the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These are 2 of 24 newly defined detailed occupations shown in table A. National employment and wage information for all occupations in the 2010 SOC is shown in table 1. The data in this news release are from the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program, which provides employment and wage estimates by area and by industry for wage and salary workers in 22 major occupational groups and 821 detailed occupations. In addition, national employment and wage estimates for 94 minor occupational groups and 458 broad occupations are available for the first time."

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    * BLS - Reduce, reuse, recycle: green technologies and practices at work

    Audrey Watson: "Fifty-seven percent of businesses in the United States used green technologies or practices to improve energy efficiency within their establishments in August 2011, and over half used green technologies and practices to reduce or eliminate the creation of waste materials as a result of operations. These are some of the results from the first BLS Green Technologies and Practices (GTP) survey, published in June 2012. However, the previously published GTP data offer only a partial look at the extent to which businesses used green technologies and practices. For example, the data do not reveal whether establishments typically used a single green technology or practice, or were more likely to adopt combinations of GTPs. To address these topics, this issue of Beyond the Numbers uses a special tabulation of GTP establishment reports to supplement the published survey data with additional information on businesses’ use of multiple GTPs."

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    March 28, 2013
    * Census - Information and Communication Technology

    "These statistics estimate capitalized and noncapitalized spending in 2011 for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) equipment and computer software at the sector level, as well as at the North American Industry Classification System three-digit and selected four-digit industry level. The estimates provide policymakers and the private sector with a relevant, timely and more accurate measure of U.S. companies' total investment in ICT equipment. These statistics are important for federal agencies to assess future productivity and economic growth prospects, and reconcile important differences between reported production and consumption of technology. Rapid changes in ICT equipment result in these assets having shorter useful lives and being replaced at a much faster rate than other types of equipment. As a result, rather than capitalizing the value of such assets and expensing the cost over two or three years, companies often expense the full cost of such assets during the current annual period. Statistics based only as capitalized expenditures may substantially underreport ICT spending."

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    * Census - Quarterly Survey of Public Pensions: 4th Quarter 2012

    "This quarterly survey (formerly known as the Finances of Selected State and Local Government Employee Retirement Systems Survey) provides national summary statistics on the revenues, expenditures and composition of assets of the 100 largest state and local public employee retirement systems in the United States. These 100 systems comprise 89.4 percent of financial activity among such entities, based on the 2007 Census of Governments. This survey presents the most current statistics about investment decisions by state and local public employee retirement systems, which are among the largest types of institutional investors in the U.S. financial markets. These statistical tables are published three months after each calendar quarter and show national financial transactions and trends for the past five years. For more information, please visit http://www.census.gov/govs/qpr/. Historical data from the Quarterly Survey of Public Pensions is available in the Census Bureau's Economic Indicator Database ."

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    * New GAO Reports - Selected Weapon Programs, Defense Contracting, Energy Efficiency, Export-Import Bank, Manufactured Homes, National Airspace System, Wind Energy
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    * Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement: Proposal Adequacy Checklist

    Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement: Proposal Adequacy Checklist (DFARS Case 2011-D042) - A Rule by the Defense Acquisition Regulations System on 03/28/2013

  • "DoD is issuing a final rule amending the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement (DFARS) to incorporate a proposal adequacy checklist for proposals in response to solicitations that require submission of certified cost or pricing data."

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    * Allegations Concerning Contracting for Services of Former Employees at Sandia National Laboratories

    Department of Energy IG Report - Allegations Concerning Contracting for Services of Former Employees at Sandia National Laboratories, INS-L-13-04

  • "Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) subcontracts with various suppliers for services not available at the Laboratories. The Office of Inspector General received an anonymous complaint alleging that: (1) Sandia hired former employees as consultants at salaries exceeding what they were paid prior to retirement; and (2) one former employee was brought back through an independent consulting company for over a decade. It was also alleged that Sandia officials responsible for approving certain hiring actions were adept at circumventing rules and regulations. We substantiated the allegations. Specifically, in eight cases we reviewed, Sandia acquired the services of former employees and paid them a higher hourly rate than the employees received prior to retiring. In addition, one former employee worked as a consultant over a period of 10 years under two separate 5-year subcontracts. While neither of these conditions violated any Federal guidelines, we did find that the practices we observed violated internal Sandia policies regarding the employment of former employees. It should be noted that Sandia has been concerned about the use of former employees as contractors and has explored ways of limiting the employment of former employees as consultants, service contractors or staff augmentation employees. As a result, Sandia revised its policy to limit, among other things, work hours and the overall period of performance. However, as demonstrated in our report, it is clear that under current policy the period of performance of former employees hired as consultants can be extended for significant periods, potentially muting Sandia's intent to limit the use of former employees. Because no violations of Federal or Departmental policy were found, no formal recommendations were made."

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    * What should economists and policymakers learn from the financial crisis?

    What should economists and policymakers learn from the financial crisis? Dr. Ben S Bernanke, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, London School of Economics and Political Science, March 25, 2013

  • "For me, perhaps the central insight is that the recent crisis, despite its many exotic features, was in fact a classic financial panic--a systemwide run of "hot money" away from as sets whose values suddenly became uncertain. In that respect, the crisis was akin to many other financial crises faced by governments and central banks--including that most venerable of central banks, the Bank of England--over the centuries. The response to the crisis likewise followed the classic prescriptions of liquidity provision, liability guarantees, asset evaluation and disposition, and recapitalization where necessary. Although the crisis had classic features, to a significant extent it took place in a novel institutional context, making diagnosis and response more challenging: For example, in the United States, collateralized wholesale funding rather than conventional bank deposits constituted the hot money, and run pressure was experienced not only by banks but by diverse other institutions, such as structured investment vehicles. In addition, the scale and complexity of globalized financial institutions and markets made
    it difficult to predict how the crisis might spread or to coordinate the response. One of the few positive aspects of this episode was the extraordinary degree of international cooperation achieved among policymakers, including the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, in responding to the crisis."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Financial Development: New Book Shows that Low-Income People Are “Bankable”

    World Bank: "More than 800 million “unbankable” low-income people already are actively using banking and other financial services, suggesting that expanding financial access can not only benefit the poor but create millions of new customers for the financial industry, according to a new book. The book, Banking the World: Empirical Foundations of Financial Inclusion, shows that the population living on less than $5 a day, adjusted by purchasing price parity, makes up more than two-thirds of those using formal financial services in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. That contradicts the theory that income and urbanization drive the demand for services by banks and other financial institutions. Even in cross-country comparisons, income isn’t the only deciding factor for financial access.For example, the percentage of people using formal banking is higher in India and Thailand than in countries with similar gross domestic product or urbanization. That means financial access can be expanded with the right kind of regulation and policy, along with industry participation, even when a country’s socioeconomic and demographic context remains the same."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    March 27, 2013
    * Federal Reserve survey provides information on mobile financial services

    News release: "The use of mobile phones to access a bank account, credit card, or other financial account became more prevalent in the Unites States last year, according to the Federal Reserve Board's latest report on the use of mobile financial services. As of November 2012, 28 percent of all mobile phone users and 48 percent of smartphone users had used mobile banking in the past 12 months. This is a significant increase from 21 percent in December 2011 for mobile phone users and 42 percent for smartphone users. While relatively less common, the use of mobile phones to make payments at the point-of-sale increased threefold over the same period, with 6 percent of smartphone owners having used their phone to make a purchase. The Federal Reserve Board completed its first Survey of Consumers' Use of Mobile Financial Services in December 2011, and released a summary report in March 2012. The Board conducted a second survey in late November 2012 to monitor trends in the use of mobile financial services, and to understand how the rapidly expanding use of this technology affects consumer decision making and the overall economy."

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    * Is Job Polarization Holding Back the Labor Market?

    Is Job Polarization Holding Back the Labor Market? by Stefania Albanesi, Victoria Gregory, Christina Patterson, and Ayşegül Şahin - New York Fed

  • "More than three years after the end of the Great Recession, the labor market still remains weak, with the unemployment rate at 7.7 percent and payroll employment 3 million less than its pre-recession level. One possibility is that this weakness is a reflection of ongoing trends in the labor market that were exacerbated during the recession. Since the 1980s, employment has become increasingly concentrated among the highest- and lowest-skilled jobs in the occupational distribution, due to the disappearance of jobs focused on routine tasks. This phenomenon is called job polarization."
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    * GAO Report - Efforts to Share Terrorism-Related Suspicious Activity Reports, International Religious Freedom Act
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    * Presidential Commission Report - Moral Science: Protecting Participants in Human Subjects Research

    "The Presidential Commission for the Study of Bioethical Issues today issued its report concerning federally-sponsored research involving human volunteers, concluding that current rules and regulations provide adequate safeguards to mitigate risk. In its report, Moral Science: Protecting Participants in Human Subjects Research, the Commission also recommended 14 changes to current practices to better protect research subjects, and called on the federal government to improve its tracking of research programs supported with taxpayer dollars."

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    * EPA Survey Finds More Than Half of the Nation’s River and Stream Miles in Poor Condition

    News release: "...the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency released the results of the first comprehensive survey looking at the health of thousands of stream and river miles across the country, finding that more than half – 55 percent – are in poor condition for aquatic life. The 2008-2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment reflects the most recent data available, and is part of EPA’s expanded effort to monitor waterways in the U.S. and gather scientific data on the condition of the Nation’s water resources. EPA partners, including states and tribes, collected data from approximately 2,000 sites across the country. EPA, state and university scientists analyzed the data to determine the extent to which rivers and streams support aquatic life, how major stressors may be affecting them and how conditions are changing over time."

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    * Milliman 2013 Pension Funding Study

    De-risking efforts by plan sponsors reduce pension obligations, but continued discount rate declines produce record-high pension plan deficits in 2012: "Pension de-risking activities were pursued by several of the top 100 U.S. pension plans during 2012. Data collected for fiscal years ending in the year indicates that at least 15 companies engaged in significant risk-reduction efforts, each resulting in a settlement of more than $100 million of plan liability. However, the de-risking measures were accompanied by increased pension cost. Generally, there were larger plan asset reductions than there were corresponding plan liability reductions. Settlement and curtailment accounting entries resulted in a fiscal year 2012 charge to earnings of $7.1 billion. The net balance sheet effect for many plans was a decline in pension funded status from 2011. We expect that this funding erosion, along with implications stemming from the 2012 enactment of the interest rate stabilization law (the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century, [MAP-21]), will result in higher plan sponsor contributions during the 2013 fiscal year."

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    March 26, 2013
    * TRAC - Drop in Employment Civil Rights Lawsuits

    "The latest available data from the federal courts show that during February 2013 the government reported 950 new lawsuits filed under the category of Employment Civil Rights, according to the case-by-case information analyzed by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC). This number is down 7.9 percent from the previous month and is 13.2 percent lower than the same period one year ago. Such lawsuits are mainly filed for employment-related civil rights discrimination on the basis of race, gender, national origin, disability, age and religion. Read the full report, including a list of those districts in which lawsuits of this kind were filed with the greatest rates relative to population."

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    * Kaiser - Visualizing Health Policy: Medicaid Expansion under the Affordable Care Act

    "This month’s Visualizing Health Policy infographic considers who will be covered under the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion provisions, which states have opted to implement or not implement the ACA Medicaid expansion, the proportion of nonelderly uninsured individuals who will likely remain uninsured, how Medicaid will streamline the enrollment process, and how the cost of the Medicaid will be funded by the federal and state governments."

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    * Proposed new EU General Data Protection Regulation

    Proposed new EU General Data Protection Regulation: Article-by-article analysis paper, V1.0
    12 February 2013. UK Information Commission Office (ICO).

  • "We originally produced this document for two main audiences –
    the ICO’s own staff and the Ministry of Justice, to help to inform the UK’s negotiations in Europe. However, it has become clear that the information contained in this paper could be of use more widely, as a resource for all those with an interest in the data protection reform process and the ICO’s views . Therefore we have decided to publish it."

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    * Urban Institute - Unemployment from a Child's Perspective

    Unemployment from a Child's Perspective, by Julia Isaacs. Released online: March 25, 2013

  • "This issue brief examines unemployment from a child's perspective, reporting that 6.2 million children lived in families with unemployed parents in 2012. Many of these children live with parents who have been out of work six month or longer. Unemployment insurance covers only 36 percent of children with unemployed parents; unemployed parents are more likely to receive SNAP benefits than UI benefits. The brief provides estimates of children affected by unemployment by state and metropolitan area, considers the effects of parental job loss on child development, and reviews policies affecting the safety net for children of the unemployed."
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    * How Would Reforming the Mortgage Interest Deduction Affect the Housing Market?

    How Would Reforming the Mortgage Interest Deduction Affect the Housing Market? by Margery Austin Turner, Eric Toder, Rolf Pendall, Claudia Ayanna Sharygin, Released online: March 26, 2013, Urban Institute

  • "Opponents of MID reform warn that reducing the deduction would undermine the value of owner-occupied homes and impede the recovery of the depressed housing market. The best available evidence predicts far less dire effects and suggests that some reforms could actually bolster the housing market recovery. However, the results are far from definitive. As debate continues, the Urban Institute plans to further explore behavioral and market changes, strengthening the evidence upon which policymakers can rely."
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    * Speech - The Economic Outlook and the Role of Monetary Policy

    William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federqal Reserve Bank of New York, March 25, 2013: "While the U.S. must put its public finances on a sustainable footing, this should be done in a manner that best achieves both our near-term and long-term objectives. In my opinion, a U.S. fiscal policy well-suited for the current set of circumstances would start with a very mild degree of restraint in the near-term that would credibly build to substantial consolidation over the next several decades. Of course, it is for Congress to judge what combination of tax increases and spending cuts should be undertaken to achieve this. Nevertheless, the aging of our population and simple math suggest that entitlement reform would need to be part of such a plan. Also, in an ideal world, fiscal policy would have broad-based bipartisan support. That would reduce uncertainty and reassure households and businesses that the U.S. was on a sustainable long-term path."

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    * U.S. Customs and Border Protection: Trade Facilitation, Enforcement, and Security

    U.S. Customs and Border Protection: Trade Facilitation, Enforcement, and Security. Vivian C. Jones, Specialist in International Trade and Finance; Marc R. Rosenblum, Specialist in Immigration Policy, March 22, 2013

  • "International trade is a critical component of the U.S. economy, with U.S. merchandise imports and exports amounting to $2.2 trillion and $1.5 trillion in 2011, respectively. The efficient flow of legally traded goods in and out of the United States is thus a vital element of the country’s economic security.
    U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), is the primary agency charged with ensuring the smooth flow of trade through U.S. ports of entry (POEs). CBP’s policies with regard to U.S. imports are designed to (1) facilitate the smooth flow of imported cargo through U.S. ports of entry; (2) enforce trade and customs laws designed to protect U.S. consumers and business and to collect customs revenue; and (3) enforce import security laws designed to prevent weapons of mass destruction, illegal drugs, and other contraband from entering the United States—a complex and difficult mission. Congress has a direct role in organizing, authorizing, and defining CBP’s international trade functions, as well as appropriating funding for and conducting oversight of its programs. The 113th Congress may consider legislation to reauthorize CBP’s trade functions."

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    * Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels

    "For a century, almost all light-duty vehicles (LDVs) have been powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs) operating on petroleum fuels. Energy security concerns over petroleum imports and the effect of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions on global climate are driving interest in alternatives. This report assesses the potential for reducing petroleum consumption and GHG emissions by 80% across the U.S. LDV fleet by 2050, relative to 2005. It examines the current capability and estimated future performance and costs for each vehicle type and non-petroleum-based fuel technology as options that could significantly contribute to these goals. By analyzing scenarios that combine various fuel and vehicle pathways, the report also identifies barriers to implementation of these technologies and suggests policies to achieve the desired reductions. Several scenarios are promising, but strong, effective, and sustained but adaptive policies such as research and development (R&D), subsidies, energy taxes, or regulations will be necessary to overcome barriers such as cost and consumer choice."

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    March 25, 2013
    * BIS - Supervisory framework for measuirng and controlling large exposures

    "The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has today published a proposed supervisory framework for measuring and controlling large exposures. One of the key lessons from the financial crisis is that banks did not always consistently measure, aggregate and control exposures to single counterparties across their books and operations. And throughout history there have been instances of banks failing due to concentrated exposures to individual counterparties (eg Johnson Matthey Bankers in the UK in 1984, the Korean banking crisis in the late 1990s). Large exposures regulation has arisen as a tool for containing the maximum loss a bank could face in the event of a sudden counterparty failure to a level that does not endanger the bank's solvency."

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    * New GAO Reports - 2020 Census, Critical Infrastructure Protection, High-Containment Laboratories, Federal Foster Care
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    * CRS - International Monetary Fund: Background and Issues for Congress

    International Monetary Fund: Background and Issues for Congress, Martin A. Weiss, Specialist in International Trade and Finance. March 21, 2013: "The IMF has evolved significantly as an institution since it was created. Floating exchange rates and more open capital markets in the 1990s created a new role for the IMF—the resolution of frequent and volatile international financial crises. The Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 and subsequent crises in Russia and Latin America revealed many weaknesses of the world monetary system, which have only become more apparent in the wake of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and the more recent sovereign debt crises in Europe. This report evaluates the purpose, membership, financing, and focus of the IMF’s activities. It also discusses the role of Congress in shaping U.S. policy at the IMF and concludes by addressing key issues, both legislative and oversight related, that Congress may wish to consider, including

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    * Speech by Chairman Bernanke on monetary policy and the global economy

    Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at the Department of Economics and STICERD (Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines) Public Discussion, UK, March 25, 2013: "...The lessons for the present are clear. Today most advanced industrial economies remain, to varying extents, in the grip of slow recoveries from the Great Recession. With inflation generally contained, central banks in these countries are providing accommodative monetary policies to support growth. Do these policies constitute competitive devaluations? To the contrary, because monetary policy is accommodative in the great majority of advanced industrial economies, one would not expect large and persistent changes in the configuration of exchange rates among these countries. The benefits of monetary accommodation in the advanced economies are not created in any significant way by changes in exchange rates; they come instead from the support for domestic aggregate demand in each country or region. Moreover, because stronger growth in each economy confers beneficial spillovers to trading partners, these policies are not "beggar-thy-neighbor" but rather are positive-sum, "enrich-thy-neighbor" actions..."

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    * Increases in coastal population growth by 2020 likely, putting more people at risk of extreme weather

    News release: "If current population trends continue, the already crowded U.S. coast will see population grow from 123 million people to nearly 134 million people by 2020, putting more of the population at increased risk from extreme coastal storms like Sandy and Isaac, which severely damaged infrastructure and property last year. The projection comes from a new report released today from NOAA with input from the U.S. Census Bureau. According to the report, which analyzed data from the 2010 census, 39 percent of the U.S. population is concentrated in counties directly on the shoreline -- less than 10 percent of the total U.S. land area excluding Alaska, and that 52 percent of the total population lives in counties that drain to coastal watersheds, less than 20 percent of U.S. land area, excluding Alaska. A coastal watershed is an area in which water, sediments, and dissolved material drain to a common coastal outlet, like a bay or the ocean."

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    * Census - Fewer U.S. Households Have Debt, But Those Who Do Have More

    "The percentage of U.S. households holding some form of debt declined from 74 percent to 69 percent between 2000 and 2011, according to new statistics released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. At the same time, the median amount of household debt increased over this period from $50,971 to $70,000 (in 2011 constant dollars). These statistics are part of a larger package released today that contains statistics on household wealth, asset ownership and debt. These statistics come from Household Debt in the U.S.: 2000 to 2011 and accompanying detailed tables that examine the median value of debt and percent holding debt for households, by various characteristics of the householder, such as race and Hispanic origin, age, education and income quintile. Between 2000 and 2011, the largest increases in median debt were experienced in households with householders age 35 to 44 (to $108,000), 45 to 54 (to $86,500) and 55 to 64 (to $70,000). However, the largest percentage increases in debt belonged to householders 55 to 64 years old (64 percent) and 65 and older (more than doubling to $26,000). Furthermore, people 65 and older were the only age group whose likelihood of holding debt rose over the period (from 41 percent to 44 percent). The opposite pattern was observed for those under 65."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    March 24, 2013
    * BIS - Central bank collateral frameworks and practices

    "The rules governing the eligibility of collateral and its terms of use are an integral part of how central banks provide liquidity to the financial system. Central banks' collateral frameworks and practices evolve over time with changing operational needs and financial market developments. But the experience gained from the various episodes of market stress that have occurred since mid-2007 provides additional motivation for central banks to review and update their collateral policies. This report examines how collateral frameworks compared across central banks as of mid-2012 and the key changes they had undergone since mid-2007. It also documents how the amount and composition of collateral pledged by counterparties to central banks evolved over the same five-year period. This report was prepared by a study group chaired by Guy Debelle, Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia."

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    * 2012 Report of the U.S. Government for Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights Initiative

    News release: "Over the last 13 years, governments, major multinational corporations, and non-governmental organizations have worked together in the Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights Initiative, in an effort to make sure that when companies extract resources in some of the most difficult places on earth, they take tangible steps to minimize the risk of human rights abuses in the surrounding communities. On March 13-14, 2013 the Government of the Netherlands hosted the Annual Plenary Meeting of the Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights Initiative in The Hague. At the outset of the meeting, the U.S. Government released our first-ever public report on U.S. efforts to implement the Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights, in line with our commitment to help make the Voluntary Principles Initiative as transparent as possible."

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    * OECD releases first comprehensive guidelines on measuring subjective well-being

    "Newly released Guidelines on Measuring Subjective Well-being establish the first comprehensive framework for internationally comparable and intellectually robust data on this topic. These Guidelines provide advice on the collection and use of measures of subjective well-being, and will allow statisticians and researchers to better measure how individuals evaluate and experience their lives. The Guidelines, developed under the OECD’s Better Life Initiative, stem from the growing interest in looking beyond traditional ways of measuring economic performance to provide a broader picture of social progress. The need for national statistics agencies to collect and publish measures of subjective well-being was a key recommendation of the 2009 Report of the Stiglitz – Sen – Fitoussi Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, established by the French Government."

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    * Brookings Report - What Americans Want From Immigration Reform

    Citizens, Values and Cultural Concerns: What Americans Want from Immigration Reform, "authored by PRRI CEO Robert P. Jones, PRRI Research Director Daniel Cox, and PRRI Research Associate Juhem Navarro-Rivera, along with Brookings Senior Fellows E.J. Dionne, Jr. and William Galston, explores general sentiment toward immigrant communities, opinions on the impact that immigrants have on American culture and public support for specific policy approaches to immigration reform. The report also explores support for immigration policy among religious groups and the political implications of the issue for and within both the Democratic and Republican parties."

    Permanent Link
    * The Wealth Report 2013: Examining High Net Worth Individuals from around the world

    World’s wealthy set to grow by 50% in the next decade: "London and New York remain the top destinations for the world’s ultra-high net worth individuals to live and invest in but Asian cities are fast catching up, says Knight Frank’s seventh annual Wealth Report. Key Findings:

    Permanent Link
    * UK - Her Majesty's Treasury - Budget 2013 documents

    "Budget 2013 - The Government’s objective is to equip the UK to succeed in the global race, build a stronger economy and a fairer society and to support aspiration. This Budget will help those who aspire to work hard and get on, care for their families, buy a home, start or grow a business and save for retirement. The UK economy is recovering from the biggest financial crisis in generations, one of the deepest recessions of any major economy and a decade of growth built on unsustainable levels of debt. The Government’s plan for the economy, first set out in June Budget 2010, is based on: fiscal responsibility to deal with our debts with a credible deficit reduction plan; monetary activism to support demand and keep interest rates low; and supply-side reform to help businesses create jobs and deliver lasting prosperity."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    March 23, 2013
    * OECD Economic Survey of China 2013

    "China’s economy expanded rapidly in recent years despite a dire international context, though it slowed in 2011-12. Rebalancing has made headway: externally, the current account surplus has fallen sharply, from over 10% of GDP in 2007 to under 3%; domestically, growth has lately been pulled more by consumption than by investment. With the slowdown, inflation has been brought under control. More recently, activity has regained momentum, helped by policy easing and a pick-up in infrastructure spending, but the global economic context remains fragile. If needed, there is room for further cautious monetary and fiscal stimulus. In a longer-run perspective, China has now overtaken the euro area and is on course to become the world’s largest economy around 2016, after allowing for price differences. Living standards will continue to improve fast provided reforms are implemented."

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    * The Kansas City Fed offers free economic and personal finance resources for educators, bankers and consumers

    "We offer free, age-specific tools for parents, educators and bankers to help children better understand economics and personal finance. Concepts range from saving money in a bank to smart shopping to the Fed's role in the economy.

    Permanent Link
    * Adults worldwide eat almost double daily AHA recommended amount of sodium

    News release: "Seventy-five percent of the world’s population consumes nearly twice the daily recommended amount of sodium (salt), according to research presented at the American Heart Association’s Nutrition, Physical Activity and Metabolism and Cardiovascular Disease Epidemiology and Prevention 2013 Scientific Sessions. Global sodium intake from commercially prepared food, table salt, salt and soy sauce added during cooking averaged nearly 4,000 mg a day in 2010. The World Health Organization recommends limiting sodium to less than 2,000 mg a day and the American Heart Association recommends limiting sodium to less than 1,500 mg a day."

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    March 22, 2013
    * Speech - Focusing on Low- and Moderate-Income Working Americans

    Speech by Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin At the National Community Reinvestment Coalition Annual Conference, Washington, D.C. March 22, 2013

  • "In my remarks, I will start by discussing the types of jobs being generated in the current recovery. Certainly, the pace of recovery in employment has improved, but it's important to look at the types of jobs that are being created because those jobs will directly affect the fortunes and challenges of households and neighborhoods as well as the course of the recovery. I will then suggest that we think about how the absence of a substantial number of new high-paying jobs, when combined with changes in the landscape for financial services, affects access generally to affordable, sustainable credit. Finally, I will explore some of the monetary, supervisory, and regulatory touchpoints in which the situation and prospects of low- and moderate-income working Americans can be addressed."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * NPR Report - The startling rise of disability in America

    Unfit for Work - The startling rise of disability in America, by Chana Joffe-Walt: "In the past three decades, the number of Americans who are on disability has skyrocketed. The rise has come even as medical advances have allowed many more people to remain on the job, and new laws have banned workplace discrimination against the disabled. Every month, 14 million people now get a disability check from the government."

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    * Learning from Iraq: Final Report from Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction

    Learning from Iraq: Final Report from Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, March 2013

  • "The foregoing litany of data, interviews, analyses, and history provides a substantial and sound basis from which to derive lessons about the Iraq reconstruction program. The Iraqis, the recipients of the United States' extraordinary reconstruction largesse, largely lament the lost potential that the massive amounts of U.S. aid promised. U.S. senior leaders firmly grasp the shortfalls faced in Iraq, absorbing them as lessons learned and recognizing the need for improving the U.S. approach to stabilization and reconstruction operations. Congressional members acknowledged missed opportunities for more oversight but expressed approval of varying innovations elicited during the effort and anticipate reifying reform proposals that could strengthen future operations."

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    March 21, 2013
    * New GAO Reports - Community Development Block Grants, Progress made by DHS
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    * Economist Intelligence Unit - Democracy Index 2012

    Democracy Index 2012 [requires free registration to download]: "In 2012 global democracy was at a standstill in the sense that there was neither significant progress nor regression in democracy in that year. Average regional scores in 2012 were very similar to scores in 2011. Free and fair elections and civil liberties are necessary conditions for democracy, but they are unlikely to be sufficient for a full and consolidated democracy if unaccompanied by transparent and at least minimally efficient government, sufficient political participation and a supportive democratic political culture. It is not easy to build a sturdy democracy. Even in long-established ones, democracy can corrode if not nurtured and protected."

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    * Publishing Scientific Papers with Potential Security Risks: Issues for Congress

    CRS - Publishing Scientific Papers with Potential Security Risks: Issues for Congress, Frank Gottron. March 18, 2013

  • "The federal government generally supports the publication of federally funded research results because wide dissemination may drive innovation, job creation, technology development, and the advance of science. However, some research results could also be used for malicious purposes. Congress, the Administration, and other stakeholders are considering whether current policies concerning publishing such research results sufficiently balances the potential benefits with the potential harms. The current issues under debate cut across traditional policy areas, involving simultaneous consideration of security, science, health, export, and international policy. Because of the complexity of these issues, analysis according to one set of policy priorities may adversely affect other policy priorities. For example, maximizing security may lead to detriments in public health and scientific advancement, while maximizing scientific advancement may lead to security risks. Accounting for such trade-offs may allow policymakers to establish regulatory frameworks that more effectively maximize the benefits from such “dual-use,” i.e., potentially beneficial and also potentially harmful, research while mitigating its potential risks."

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    * Human Rights in China and U.S. Policy: Issues for the 113th Congress

    CRS - Congress Human Rights in China and U.S. Policy: Issues for the 113th Congress, Thomas Lum, Specialist in Foreign Affairs. March 15, 2013

  • "This report examines human rights issues in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), including ongoing rights abuses, legal reforms, and the development of civil society. Major events of the past year include the PRC leadership transition, the Wukan protests over land expropriation, the negotiations that allowed legal advocate Chen Guangcheng to leave China, and the Tibetan self-immolations. Ongoing human rights problems include excessive use of force by public security forces, unlawful detention, torture of detainees, arbitrary use of state security laws against political dissidents and ethnic groups, coercive family planning practices, persecution of unsanctioned religious activity, state control of information, and mistreatment of North Korean refugees. Tibetans, Uighur Muslims, and Falun Gong adherents continue to receive especially harsh treatment."

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    * CRS - Financial Condition of Depository Banks

    Financial Condition of Depository Banks, Darryl E. Getter, Specialist in Financial Economics. March 18, 2013

  • "A bank is an institution that obtains either a federal or state charter that allows it to accept federally insured deposits and pay interest to depositors. In addition, the charter allows banks to make residential and commercial mortgage loans; provide check cashing and clearing services; underwrite securities that include U.S. Treasuries, municipal bonds, commercial paper, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac issuances; and other activities as defined by statute. Congressional interest in the financial conditions of depository banks or the commercial banking
    industry has increased in the wake of the financial crisis that unfolded in 2007-2009, which resulted in a large increase in the number of distressed institutions. A financially strained banking system would have difficulty making credit available to facilitate macroeconomic recovery."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * CRS - Electronic Employment Eligibility Verification

    Electronic Employment Eligibility Verification, Andorra Bruno, Specialist in Immigration Policy. March 19, 2013

  • The 113th Congress is expected to take up comprehensive immigration reform. Some of the most difficult immigration policy questions on the table concern unauthorized immigration and unauthorized employment. Today’s discussions about these issues build on the work of prior Congresses. In 1986, following many years of debate about unauthorized immigration to the United States, Congress enacted the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA). This law sought to address unauthorized immigration, in part, by requiring all employers to examine documents presented by new hires to verify identity and work authorization and to complete and retain employment eligibility verification (I-9) forms. Ten years later, in the face of a growing illegal alien population, Congress attempted to strengthen the employment verification process by establishing pilot programs for electronic verification, as part of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 (IIRIRA)."

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    * Supporting Criminal Justice System Reform in Mexico: The U.S. Role

    CRS - Supporting Criminal Justice System Reform in Mexico: The U.S. Role, Clare Ribando Seelke, Specialist in Latin American Affairs. March 18, 2013

  • "Fostering security, stability, and democracy in neighboring Mexico is seen by analysts to be in the U.S. national security and economic interest. Reforming Mexico’s often corrupt and inefficient criminal justice system is widely regarded as crucial for combating criminality, strengthening the rule of law, and better protecting citizen security and human rights in the country. Congress has provided significant support to help Mexico reform its justice system in order to make current anticrime efforts more effective and to strengthen the system over the long term. U.S. and Mexican officials assert that fully implementing judicial reforms enacted through constitutional changes in June 2008 is a key goal. Under the reforms, Mexico has until 2016 to replace its trial procedures at the federal and state level, moving from a closed-door process based on written arguments presented to a judge to an adversarial public trial system with oral arguments and the presumption of innocence until proven guilty. These changes are expected to help make the system less prone to corruption and more transparent and impartial. In addition to oral trials, judicial systems are expected to adopt means of alternative dispute resolution, which should help them be more flexible and efficient, thereby ensuring that cases that go to trial involve serious crimes."

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    * Basel Committee publishes for consultation supervisory guidance on external audits of banks

    Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Consultative Document, External audits of banks, March 2013

  • "The recent financial crisis not only revealed weaknesses in risk management, control and governance processes at banks, but also highlighted the need to improve the quality of external audits of banks. Given the central role banks play in contributing to financial stability, and therefore the need for market confidence in the quality of external audits of banks' financial statements, the Basel Committee is issuing for consultation this guidance on external audits of banks. This document describes, through sixteen principles and explanatory guidance, supervisory expectations regarding audit quality and how that relates to the external auditor's work in a bank. Implementation of the principles and the explanatory guidance is expected to improve the quality of bank audits and enhance the effectiveness of prudential supervision which is an important element of financial stability."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    March 20, 2013
    * 2010 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) data

    News release: "Total energy consumption in the manufacturing sector decreased by 17 percent from 2002 to 2010, according to data released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Manufacturing gross output decreased by only 3 percent over the same period. Taken together, these data indicate a significant decline in the amount of energy used per unit of gross manufacturing output. The significant decline in energy intensity reflects both improvements in energy efficiency and changes in the manufacturing output mix. Consumption of every fuel used for manufacturing declined over this period."

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    * New GAO Reports - DOE, Entrepreneurial Assistance, Financial Institutions, Puerto Rico, U.S. Assistance to Yemen
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    * Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from March 2013 FOMC meeting

    "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year. Labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement in recent months but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy has become somewhat more restrictive. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable...To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative."

  • See also Projections (PDF) | Accessible Materials
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community

    Statement for the Record - Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, March 12, 2013

  • "This year, in both content and organization, this statement illustrates how quickly and radically the world—and our threat environment—are changing. This environment is demanding reevaluations of the way we do business, expanding our analytic envelope, and altering the vocabulary of intelligence. Threats are more diverse, interconnected, and viral than at any time in history. Attacks, which might involve cyber and financial weapons, can be deniable and unattributable. Destruction can be invisible, latent, and progressive. We now monitor shifts in human geography, climate, disease, and competition for natural resources because they fuel tensions and conflicts. Local events that might seem irrelevant are more likely to affect US national security in accelerated time frames. In this threat environment, the importance and urgency of intelligence integration cannot be overstated. Our progress cannot stop. The Intelligence Community must continue to promote collaboration among experts in every field, from the political and social sciences to natural sciences, medicine, military issues, and space. Collectors and analysts need vision across disciplines to understand how and why developments—and both state and unaffiliated actors—can spark sudden changes with international implications."

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    * Annual Report of the U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO)

    GPO 2012 Annual Report: "The Government Printing Office (GPO) is transforming itself from a traditional ink- on-paper operation to a digital information platform. While producing the official printed products of the Government remains an important part of our business, we are using technology to move away from a print-centric business model and toward a content-centric focus, which today serves as the foundation for an increasing variety of digital and secure products and services...GPO’s federal Digital System (), our one-stop, no-fee Web site providing public access to the official information products of all three branches of the Government, continues to grow. Today we have more than 800,000 individual titles accessible via FDsys, and we are seeing more than 37 million documents retrieved each month. By the end of the year FDsys surpassed its 400 millionth document retrieval.

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    * Paper - Endogenous Banks' Networks, Cascades and Systemic Risk

    Bluhm, Marcel, Faia, Ester and Krahnen, Jan Pieter, Endogenous Banks' Networks, Cascades and Systemic Risk (March 1, 2013). SAFE Working Paper No. 12. Available at SSRN.

  • "We develop a dynamic network model whose links are governed by banks' optmizing decisions and by an endogenous tâtonnement market adjustment. Banks in our model can default and engage in firesales: risk is transmitted through direct and cascading counterparty defaults as well as through indirect pecuniary externalities triggered by firesales. We use the model to assess the evolution of the network configuration under various prudential policy regimes, to measure banks' contribution to systemic risk (through Shapley values) in response to shocks and to analyze the effects of systemic risk charges. We complement the analysis by introducing the possibility of central bank liquidity provision."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Application of FinCEN's Regulations to Persons Administering, Exchanging, or Using Virtual Currencies

    "The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network ("FinCEN") is issuing this interpretive guidance to clarify the applicability of the regulations implementing the Bank Secrecy Act ("BSA") to persons creating, obtaining, distributing, exchanging, accepting, or transmitting virtual currencies. Such persons are referred to in this guidance as "users," "administrators," and "exchangers," all as defined below. A user of virtual currency is not an MSB under FinCEN's regulations and therefore is not subject to MSB registration, reporting, and recordkeeping regulations. However, an administrator or exchanger is an MSB under FinCEN's regulations, specifically, a money transmitter, unless a limitation to or exemption from the definition applies to the person. An administrator or exchanger is not a provider or seller of prepaid access, or a dealer in foreign exchange, under FinCEN's regulations."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    March 19, 2013
    * National Security Archive Publishes "Essential" Primary Sources on Operation Iraqi Freedom

    "A decade after the U.S. invasion of Iraq (March 19, 2003), the debate continues over whether the United States truly believed that Iraq's supposed WMD capabilities posed an imminent danger, and whether the results of the engagement have been worth the high costs to both countries. To mark the 10th anniversary of the start of hostilities, the National Security Archive has posted a selection of essential historical documents framing the key elements of one of America's most significant foreign policy choices of recent times. The records elucidate the decision to go to war, to administer a post-invasion Iraq, and to sell the idea to Congress, the media, and the public at large."

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    * New GAO Reports - DHS Needs to Enhance IT Management, National Preparedness, Payments to Counties, Aid to Lebanon's Security Forces, Veteran-Owned Small Businesses
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    * India is the fourth largest energy consumer in the world after the United States, China, and Russia

    EIA: "In 2011, India was the fourth largest energy consumer in the world after the United States, China, and Russia. India's economy grew at an annual rate of approximately 7 percent since 2000 and proved relatively resilient to the 2008 global financial crisis. India was the 10th largest economy in the world in 2011, as measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP). In the International Energy Outlook 2011, EIA projects India and China to account for the biggest share of Asian energy demand growth through 2035. Risks to economic growth in India include high debt levels, infrastructure deficiencies, and political polarization between the country's two largest political parties."

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    * New EPA Report: Initial Data Shows Significant Gains in Fuel Economy for 2012

    "EPA released its annual report that tracks the fuel economy of vehicles sold in the United States, underscoring the major increases made in the efficiency of the vehicles Americans drive, reducing oil consumption and cutting carbon emissions. According to the report, EPA estimates that between 2007 and 2012 fuel economy values increased by 16 percent while carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have decreased by 13 percent, and in 2012 alone the report indicates a significant one year increase of 1.4 miles per gallon (mpg) for cars and trucks."

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    * Basel Committee concludes assessment of Basel III capital regulations in Singapore

    "The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has today published a report assessing the regulations that implement the Basel capital framework in Singapore. Through its Regulatory Consistency Assessment Programme (RCAP), the Committee monitors the timely adoption of regulations by its members, assesses their consistency with the Basel framework and analyses the quality of intended regulatory outcomes. The RCAP also helps member jurisdictions to identify deviations from the Basel framework and assesses their materiality."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * BIS - Results of the Basel III monitoring exercise as of 30 June 2012

    "This report presents the results of the Basel Committee's Basel III monitoring exercise. The study is based on rigorous reporting processes set up by the Committee to periodically review the implications of the Basel III standards for financial markets. The results of previous exercises in this series were published in April 2012 and September 2012. A total of 210 banks participated in the current study, comprising 101 Group 1 banks (ie those that have Tier 1 capital in excess of €3 billion and are internationally active) and 109 Group 2 banks (ie all other banks). While the Basel III framework sets out transitional arrangements to implement the new standards, the monitoring exercise results assume full implementation of the final Basel III package based on data as of 30 June 2012 (ie they do not take account of the transitional arrangements such as the phase in of deductions). No assumptions were made about bank profitability or behavioural responses, such as changes in bank capital or balance sheet composition. For that reason the results of the study are not comparable to industry estimates."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Industry Labor Productivity Trends from 2000 to 2010

    Spotlight on Statistics, by Michael R. Brill and Samuel T. Rowe: "Labor productivity rose for most industries during the first decade of the millennium. The expansion of information technology (IT) that fueled rapid productivity growth during the 1990s continued after 2000, and improvements in IT hardware and software, mobile telecommunications, data communications, and the growth of the internet contributed further to productivity growth. This productivity growth benefited not only producers and sellers of IT products, but also firms that used IT to improve efficiency in production and distribution...In contrast to the strong output growth that contributed to productivity gains in the late 1990s, the two economic downturns during the 2000–2010 period resulted in declines or slower growth in output for many industries. As output fell, many industries reduced the number and hours of workers they employed. In some industries, hours fell more than output. The resulting job losses and continued declines or weak growth in labor hours accompanied the 2000-2010 productivity increases in many of the sectors and industries studied in this Spotlight on Statistics."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    March 18, 2013
    * EOP - Improving the Collection and Use of Information about Contractor Performance and Integrity

    Office of Federal Procurement Policy, March 6, 2013

  • "Over the past several years, the Office of Federal Procurement Policy (OFPP) has worked with agency Chief Acquisition Officers (CAOs) and Senior Procurement Executives (SPEs) to improve the value of contractor performance assessments and increase the transparency of data about contractor integrity. Through these efforts, our past performance systems and regulations now support a single repository of this important information, contractor integrity information is now publicly available, and new data management tools have been developed to help agencies improve their reporting. These and other efforts have set a strong foundation for providing contracting officers (COs) important information about contractors when making source selection and award decisions. However, agencies must increase their use of these tools, as under reporting performance information leaves the government vulnerable to poor acquisition outcomes in the future."

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    * NOAA proposes plan to address environmental injuries from 2005 Gulf oil spill

    "NOAA today released a draft damage assessment and restoration plan addressing environmental injuries from the 2005 Tank Barge DBL 152 oil spill in federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico. The draft plan describes the steps NOAA has taken to see if natural resources, such as marine habitats, were injured by the nearly two million gallon spill, as well as the extent of those injuries. The spill began on November 11, 2005 when the Tank Barge DBL 152 struck submerged remains of a pipeline service platform that collapsed during Hurricane Rita approximately 50 miles southeast of Sabine Pass, Texas."

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    * New GAO Report - Dietary Supplements

    Dietary Supplements - FDA May Have Opportunities to Expand Its Use of Reported Health Problems to Oversee Products, GAO-13-244, Mar 18, 2013

  • "From 2008 through 2011, the Department of Health and Human Services' Food and Drug Administration (FDA) received 6,307 reports of health problems--adverse event reports (AER)--for dietary supplements; 71 percent came from industry as serious adverse events as required by law, and most of these AERs were linked with supplements containing a combination of ingredients, such as vitamins and minerals or were otherwise not classified within FDA's product categories. However, FDA may not be receiving information on all adverse events because consumers and others may not be voluntarily reporting these events to FDA, although they may be contacting poison centers about some of these events. From 2008 to 2010, these centers received over 1,000 more reports of adverse events linked to dietary supplements than did FDA for the same period. FDA officials said that they are interested in determining whether the poison center data could be useful for their analysis and have held discussions with American Association of Poison Control Centers representatives, but cost is a factor."

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    * CRS - Guns, Excise Taxes, and Wildlife Restoration

    Guns, Excise Taxes, and Wildlife Restoration, M. Lynne Corn, Specialist in Natural Resources Policy; Jane G. Gravelle, Senior Specialist in Economic Policy. March 12, 2013

  • "As a result of the recent debate over guns, gun rights, and gun-related violence, there has been a marked increase in sales of many weapons as well as ammunition. Through an excise tax on firearms and ammunition, such sales have a marked beneficial effect on funding for state wildlife programs through the Wildlife Restoration Program (also known as Pittman-Robertson or P-R). This report examines these taxes, their allocation, and their use. It also examines the effects of sequestration of this account, pursuant to the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA, P.L. 112-25)."

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    * CRS - An Overview of the Housing Finance System in the United States

    An Overview of the Housing Finance System in the United States, Sean M. Hoskins, Analyst in Financial Economics; Katie Jones, Analyst in Housing Policy; N. Eric Weiss, Specialist in Financial Economics. March 13, 2013

  • "The characteristics of the borrower and of the mortgage determine the classification of the loan. What happens to a mortgage in the secondary market is partially determined by whether the mortgage is government-insured, conforming, or nonconforming. Depending on the type of MBS or mortgage purchased, investors will face different types of risks. Congress is interested in the condition of the housing finance system for multiple reasons. The mortgage market is very large and can impact the wider U.S. economy. The federal government supports homeownership both directly (through the Federal Housing Administration [FHA], Department of Veterans’ Affairs [VA], and U. S. Department of Agriculture [USDA]) and indirectly (through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). This support by the federal government means that the government is potentially liable for financial losses. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA currently are in financial difficulty, and Congress has shown an interest in exercising oversight and considering legislation to potentially address these difficulties. This report provides an overview of how the housing finance system works and provides context for housing finance-related policy issues that Congress might choose to consider."

    • Permanent Link
    March 17, 2013
    * The BIS Quarterly Review for March 2013 says markets grow confident on continued support

    March 2013 Quarterly Review: Markets grow confident on continued support - March 18, 2013

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    * Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress

    CRS - Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress, by Ronald O'Rourke, Specialist in Naval Affairs. March 14, 2013

  • "The Aegis ballistic missile defense (BMD) program, which is carried out by the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and the Navy, gives Navy Aegis cruisers and destroyers a capability for conducting BMD operations. Under MDA and Navy plans, the number of BMD-capable Navy Aegis ships is scheduled to grow from 24 at the end of FY2011 to 36 at the end of FY2018. Under the Administration’s European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) for European BMD operations, BMD-capable Aegis ships are operating in European waters to defend Europe from potential ballistic missile attacks from countries such as Iran. On October 5, 2011, the United States, Spain, and NATO jointly announced that, as part of the EPAA, four BMD-capable Aegis ships are to be forward homeported (i.e., based) at Rota, Spain, in FY2014 and FY2015. BMD- capable Aegis ships also operate in the Western Pacific and the Persian Gulf to provide regional defense against potential ballistic missile attacks from countries such as North Korea and Iran."

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    * Urban Institute Papers on the Changing Wealth of American

    "The Great Recession hit family finances from many directions. Housing and stock prices fell sharply, and along with them, family wealth. As economic output dropped and unemployment rose sharply, those who lost their jobs or were underemployed saw their wealth erode. The Great Recession had an especially severe impact on the wealth building of Generations X and Y, people of color, and families in low-income neighborhoods. In some cases, the impact only added to longer-term trends prevalent before the recession. These findings call into question the efficacy of wealth-building tax subsidies that exclude lower-income families; housing policies that adopt a “buy high, sell low” homeownership strategy for those with low and moderate incomes; rental and other subsidies that discourage homeownership; and a pension system that leaves most workers with little or no savings by the time they retire."

  • Lost Generations? Wealth Building among Young Americans, by Eugene Steuerle, Signe-Mary McKernan, Caroline Ratcliffe, and Sisi Zhang - "Despite the Great Recession and slow recovery, the American dream of working hard, saving more, and becoming wealthier than one’s parents holds true for many. Unless you’re under 40. Stagnant wages, diminishing job opportunities, and lost home values may be painting a vastly different future for Gen X and Gen Y."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * EFF - National Security Letters Are Unconstitutional, Federal Judge Rules

    "A federal district court judge in San Francisco has ruled that National Security Letter (NSL) provisions in federal law violate the Constitution. The decision came in a lawsuit challenging a NSL on behalf of an unnamed telecommunications company represented by the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF). In the ruling publicly released [March 15, 2013], Judge Susan Illston ordered that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) stop issuing NSLs and cease enforcing the gag provision in this or any other case. The landmark ruling is stayed for 90 days to allow the government to appeal."

  • Links to the full order and more on this case - both via EFF.

    • Permanent Link
    * Paper - The Implausibility of Secrecy

    The Implausibility of Secrecy, by Mark Fenster. University of Florida - Fredric G. Levin College of Law. February 18, 2013

  • "Government secrecy frequently fails. Despite the executive branch’s obsessive hoarding of certain kinds of documents and its constitutional authority to do so, recent high-profile events — among them the WikiLeaks episode, the Obama administration’s celebrated leak prosecutions, and the widespread disclosure by high-level officials of flattering confidential information to sympathetic reporters — undercut the image of a state that can classify and control its information. The effort to control government information requires human, bureaucratic, technological, and textual mechanisms that regularly founder or collapse in an administrative state, sometimes immediately and sometimes after an interval. Leaks, mistakes, open sources — each of these constitutes a path out of the government’s informational clutches. As a result, permanent, long-lasting secrecy of any sort and to any degree is costly and difficult to accomplish. This article argues that information control is an implausible goal. It critiques some of the foundational assumptions of constitutional and statutory laws that seek to regulate information flows, in the process countering and complicating the extensive literature on secrecy, transparency, and leaks that rest on those assumptions. By focusing on the functional issues relating to government information and broadening its study beyond the much-examined phenomenon of leaks, the article catalogs and then illustrates in a series of case studies the formal and informal means by which information flows out of the state."

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    * POGO - Shining a Light on FOIA Practices

    "In celebration of Sunshine Week, a number of organizations released Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) reviews. These reviews, conducted by National Security Archives, the Center for Effective Government, Cause of Action, Associated Press, and OpenTheGovernment.org, indicate how agencies measure up when it comes to providing the public with information. Although the studies indicate that agencies on the whole increased their responses to FOIA requests in 2012, disparities remain between agencies on things like response time, compliance with the 2007 Open Government Act and 2009 Guidance from the White House, cost of responding, fee waivers, and backlog reductions. A majority of responses to FOIA requests in 2012 were only partial responses, and use of exemptions to withhold or redact information increased. The following snapshots contain some of the highlights of each review."

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    * CRS - Guns, Excise Taxes, and Wildlife Restoration

    Guns, Excise Taxes, and Wildlife Restoration. M. Lynne Corn, Specialist in Natural Resources Policy; Jane G. Gravelle, Senior Specialist in Economic Policy. March 12, 2013

  • "As a result of the recent debate over guns, gun rights, and gun-related violence, there has been a marked increase in sales of many weapons as well as ammunition. Through an excise tax on firearms and ammunition, such sales have a marked beneficial effect on funding for state wildlife programs through the Wildlife Restoration Program (also known as Pittman-Robertson or P-R). This report examines these taxes, their allocation, and their use. It also examines the effects of sequestration of this account, pursuant to the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA, P.L. 112-25)".

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    March 16, 2013
    * Economic Report of the President 2013

    Economic Report of the President transmitted to the Congress March 2013 together with the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers, March 15, 2013

  • "This year's Economic Report of the President describes the progress we have made recovering from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. After years of grueling recession, our businesses have created over six million new jobs. As a nation, we now buy more American cars than we have in 5 years, and less foreign oil than we have in 20 years. Our housing market is healing, and homeowners and consumers enjoy stronger protections than ever before. But there are still millions of Americans whose hard work and dedication have not yet been rewarded. Our economy is adding jobs, but too many of our fellow citizens still can't find full time employment. Corporate profits have reached all-time highs, but for more than a decade, wages and incomes for working Americans have barely budged. As President Obama has said, "A growing economy that creates good, middle-class jobs–that must be the North Star that guides our efforts."

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    March 15, 2013
    * New GAO Reports - Housing and Urban Developmen, IRS Information Security, Medicaid
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    * Federal Reserve System publishes annual financial statements

    News release: "The Federal Reserve System on Friday released the 2012 combined annual financial statements for the Federal Reserve Banks, as well as for the 12 individual Federal Reserve Banks, the consolidated variable interest entities (VIEs) that were created to respond to strains in financial markets, and the Board of Governors. These financial statements are audited annually by an independent auditing firm. The Federal Reserve Banks' 2012 net income before providing for remittances to the U.S. Treasury was $90.6 billion. The Reserve Banks provided for remittances to the U.S. Treasury of $88.4 billion."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * NOAA - Sharks and Manta Rays Receive Protection Under CITES

    News release: "This week is marked by a historic conservation milestone for sharks and rays globally. At this year’s Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) Conference of the Parties meeting in Bangkok, countries agreed to increase protection for five commercially-exploited species of sharks and manta rays. CITES member nations, referred to as “Parties”, voted in support of listing the oceanic whitetip shark, three species of hammerhead sharks (scalloped, smooth, and great), the porbeagle shark and manta rays in CITES Appendix II – an action that means increased protection, but still allows legal and sustainable trade."

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    March 14, 2013
    * Federal Reserve announces results of Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review

    News release: "The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced it has approved the capital plans of 14 financial institutions in the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). Two other institutions received conditional approval, while the Federal Reserve objected to the plans of two firms. Strong capital levels help ensure that banking organizations have the ability to lend to households and businesses and to continue to meet their financial obligations, even in times of economic difficulty. The Federal Reserve in CCAR evaluates the capital planning processes and capital adequacy of the largest bank holding companies, including the firms' proposed capital actions such as dividend payments and share buybacks and issuances."

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    * Census - Workers with a Disability Less Likely to be Employed

    "Individuals with disabilities were less likely to be employed than individuals without disabilities, and those who were employed typically held jobs with lower earnings and also earned less than their colleagues with no disability, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey. Based on the new Disability Employment Tabulation, the statistics show that between 2008 and 2010, individuals without disabilities were about three times more likely to be employed than individuals with disabilities. Overall, individuals with disabilities accounted for 9.4 million, or 6.0 percent, of the 155.9 million civilian labor force. More than half of all workers with a disability were concentrated in four general occupation groups: service workers (except protective services) with 18.2 percent, followed by administrative support (15.1 percent), sales workers (10.4 percent) and management, business and finance (8.9 percent)."

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    * Mobile device use while driving more common in the US than in several European countries

    Mobile Device Use While Driving — United States and Seven European Countries, 2011. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), March 15, 2013 / 62(10);177-182.

  • "Most U.S. drivers reported talking on their cell phone and about one in three read or sent text or email messages when driving, according to a new study released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The study examined two specific types of self-reported distracted driving behaviors: cell phone use while driving and reading or sending text or e-mail messages while driving, among drivers aged 18-64 years in the United States and in seven European countries (Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom). CDC researchers analyzed data from the 2011 EuroPNStyles and HealthStyles surveys and found that 69 percent of U.S. drivers talked on their cell phone while driving within the 30 days before they were surveyed compared to 21 percent of drivers from the United Kingdom. The study also found that 31 percent of drivers in the United States reported that they had read or sent text messages or emails while driving, compared to 15 percent of drivers in Spain."

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    * Fewer Children are in Private Schools, More in Charters: Working Paper Explores Possible Links

    Census:"Data from several surveys, including the Current Population Survey and American Community Survey, show a decline in private school enrollment over the last decade. The working paper compares trends across datasets and subgroups and explores possible underlying causes of the decline in enrollment, which occurred particularly at larger, religiously affiliated schools in cities and suburbs. Possible causes explored by the paper include the growth in charter schools, home schooling and the recession. View related Research Matters Forum post."

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    * CFPB - Defining Larger Participants of the Student Loan Servicing Market

    "The Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection (Bureau or CFPB) proposes to amend the regulation defining larger participants of certain consumer financial product and service markets by adding a new section to define larger participants of a market for student loan servicing. The Bureau proposes this rule pursuant to its authority, under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, to supervise certain nonbank covered persons for compliance with Federal consumer financial law and for other purposes. The Bureau has the authority to supervise nonbank covered persons of all sizes in the residential mortgage, private education lending, and payday lending markets. In addition, the Bureau has the authority to supervise nonbank “larger participant[s]” of markets for other consumer financial products or services, as the Bureau defines by rule. The proposal (Proposed Rule) would identify a market for student loan servicing and define “larger participants” of this market that would be subject to the Bureau’s supervisory authority."

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    * Effects of Human and Wildlife Exposure to Hormone-Disrupting Chemicals Examined in Landmark UN Report

    News release: "Many synthetic chemicals, untested for their disrupting effects on the hormone system, could have significant health implications according to the State of the Science of Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals, a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Health Organization (WHO). The joint study calls for more research to understand fully the associations between endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs)-found in many household and industrial products-and specific diseases and disorders. The report notes that with more comprehensive assessments and better testing methods, potential disease risks could be reduced, with substantial savings to public health. Human health depends on a well-functioning endocrine system to regulate the release of certain hormones that are essential for functions such as metabolism, growth and development, sleep and mood. Some substances known as endocrine disruptors can change the function(s) of this hormonal system increasing the risk of adverse health effects. Some EDCs occur naturally, while synthetic varieties can be found in pesticides, electronics, personal care products and cosmetics. They can also be found as additives or contaminants in food."

  • State of the Science of Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals - 2012. An assessment of the state of the science of endocrine disruptors prepared by a group of experts for the United Nations Environment Programme and World Health Organization, 2013

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    * G20 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product, fourth quarter 2012, OECD

    "Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the G20 area grew by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared with 0.6% in the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates. The aggregate G20 GDP growth rate however continues to mask diverging patterns across the world’s largest economies. Among the Major Seven countries, all European countries (Italy, Germany, France and the United Kingdom) experienced a GDP contraction in the last quarter of 2012 (from minus 0.9% in Italy and minus 0.6% in Germany to minus 0.3% in France and the United Kingdom). By contrast, the non-European Major Seven countries recorded broadly stable or positive growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2012 (slightly above 0.0% in Japan and the United States, and 0.2% in Canada). Among remaining G20 economies, India, Mexico, Korea, Brazil and South Africa recorded a higher growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 than in the previous quarter, while in Australia, Indonesia and China GDP growth remained broadly stable. Compared with the same quarter of 2011, GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2012 in the G20 area, with China recording the highest growth rate (7.9%) and Italy the largest contraction (minus 2.8%). For 2012 as a whole, GDP expanded by 2.8% in the G20 area, compared with 3.8% in 2011."

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    * Evaluation of Biomonitoring Data from the CDC National Exposure Report in a Risk Assessment Context

    Evaluation of Biomonitoring Data from the CDC National Exposure Report in a Risk Assessment Context: Perspectives across Chemicals - March 1, 2013

  • "Biomonitoring data reported in the National Report on Human Exposure to Environmental Chemicals [NER; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2012)] provide information on the presence and concentrations of > 400 chemicals in human blood and urine. Biomonitoring Equivalents (BEs) and other risk assessment–based values now allow interpretation of these biomonitoring data in a public health risk context...This analysis provides for the first time a means for examining population biomonitoring data for multiple environmental chemicals in the context of the risk assessments for those chemicals. The results of these comparisons can be used to focus more detailed chemical-specific examination of the data and inform priorities for chemical risk management and research."

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    March 13, 2013
    * Cenus - Estimates of Income and Earnings by Selected Demographic Characteristics

    "Using data collected by the Survey of Income and Program Participation, this table package presents income and earnings estimates at the individual, family and household level for the third quarter (July, August and September) of 2011. The tables also include quarterly estimates by selected demographic characteristics, such as gender, race/ethnicity, age, marital status and highest level of educational attainment. Monthly income and earnings estimates for individuals, families, and households are also provided for the third quarter of 2011.

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    * New GAO Reports - Budget Issues, Information Sharing, Modernizing the Nuclear Security Enterprise, Renewable Energy, Water Infrastructure
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    * POGO - Federal Government’s Largest Contractors Have Paid Billions in Fines, Penalties

    "The federal government’s largest suppliers of goods and services have accumulated more than $59 billon in fines, penalties, and settlements since 1995 according to the Project On Government Oversight’s (POGO) Federal Contractor Misconduct Database. POGO has added 12 new entities to the database, including telecom giant Verizon Communications and health insurer Highmark. Verizon has 24 instances of misconduct for which it incurred $477.5 million in penalties. Highmark has 7 instances and $59.3 million in penalties. The database now contains the civil, criminal, and administrative misconduct track records of a total of 172 contractors. The database’s new top 100 federal contractors—ranked according to fiscal year 2011 contract spending data reported on the Federal Procurement Data System—received 55 percent of the $537 billion in federal contracts awarded that year. As of today, these 100 contractors have accumulated 932 misconduct instances and $41 billion in monetary penalties since 1995."

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    * The Leaky Leviathan: Why the Government Condemns and Condones Unlawful Disclosures of Information

    The Leaky Leviathan: Why the Government Condemns and Condones Unlawful Disclosures of Information, David Pozen, Columbia Law School. March 2013, Harvard Law Review, Forthcoming

  • "The United States government leaks like a sieve. Presidents denounce the constant flow of classified information to the media from unauthorized, anonymous sources. National security professionals decry the consequences. And yet the laws against leaking are almost never enforced. Throughout U.S. history, fewer than a dozen criminal cases have been brought against suspected leakers. There is a dramatic disconnect between the way our laws and our leaders condemn leaking in the abstract and the way they condone it in practice. This article challenges the standard account of this disconnect, which emphasizes the difficulties of apprehending and prosecuting offenders, and advances an alternative theory of leaking. The executive branch's "leakiness" is often taken to be a sign of institutional failure. The article argues it is better understood as an adaptive response to external liabilities (such as the mistrust generated by presidential secret-keeping and media manipulation) and internal pathologies (such as overclassification and bureaucratic fragmentation) of the modern administrative state. The leak laws are so rarely enforced not only because it is hard to punish violators, but also because key institutional actors share overlapping interests in maintaining a permissive culture of classified information disclosures. Permissiveness does not entail anarchy, however, as a nuanced system of informal social controls has come to supplement, and all but supplant, the formal disciplinary scheme. In detailing these claims, the article maps the rich sociology of governmental leak regulation and explores a range of implications for executive power, national security, democracy, and the rule of law."

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    March 12, 2013
    * Working Paper - Do economies stall? The international evidence

    Do economies stall? The international evidence by Wai-Yip Alex Ho and James Yetman. Working Papers No 407, March 2013

  • A "stalling" economy has been defined as one that experiences a discrete deterioration in economic performance following a decline in its growth rate to below some threshold level. Previous efforts to identify stalls have focused primarily on the US economy, with the threshold level being chosen endogenously, and have suggested that the concept of a stall may be useful for macroeconomic forecasting. We examine the international evidence for stalling in a panel of 51 economies using two different definitions of a stall threshold (time-invariant and related to lagged average growth rates) and two complementary empirical approaches (insample statistical significance and out-of-sample forecast performance). We find that the evidence for stalling based on time-invariant thresholds is limited: only 12 of the 51 economies in our sample experience statistically significant stalls, and including a stall threshold generally results in only modest improvements to out-ofsample forecast performance. When we instead model the stall threshold as varying with average growth rates, the number of economies with statistically-significant stalls actually declines (to nine), but in 71% of the cases we examine, including a stall threshold results in an improvement in out-of-sample forecast performance."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * EPA Announces Cities with the Most Energy Star Buildings in the US

    News release: "The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a list of U.S. metropolitan areas with the most Energy Star certified buildings in 2012, highlighting how owners and managers of commercial buildings across the country are taking action on climate change while delivering real financial savings to the bottom line...In 2012, more than 20,000 Energy Star certified buildings across America helped save more than $2.7 billion in annual utility bills while preventing greenhouse gas emissions equal to emissions from the annual electricity use of more than two million homes. Energy use in commercial buildings accounts for 17 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions at a cost of more than $100 billion per year. EPA continues to see an increase in buildings applying for and earning Energy Star certification each year. The cumulative number of Energy Star certified buildings has increased by more than 24 percent compared to last year, representing more than 3 billion square feet of floorspace nationwide. In 2012 alone, more than 8,200 buildings earned EPA’s Energy Star certification. For the fifth year in a row, Los Angeles continues to hold on to first place, with 528 buildings. Washington, D.C., with 462 buildings, is a competitive front-runner. In third place, with 353 buildings, Chicago has risen through the rankings each year, starting in sixth place in 2008 and increasing the number of buildings certified by an average of 32 percent each year. New York, which recently required its commercial buildings to publicly disclose their energy use, secured fourth place."

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    * 2013 Reporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index

    News release: "After the “Arab springs” and other protest movements that prompted many rises and falls in last year’s index, the 2013 Reporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index marks a return to a more usual configuration. The ranking of most countries is no longer attributable to dramatic political developments. This year’s index is a better reflection of the attitudes and intentions of governments towards media freedom in the medium or long term. The same three European countries that headed the index last year hold the top three positions again this year. For the third year running, Finland has distinguished itself as the country that most respects media freedom. It is followed by the Netherlands and Norway. Although many criteria are considered, ranging from legislation to violence against journalists, democratic countries occupy the top of the index while dictatorial countries occupy the last three positions. Again it is the same three as last year – Turkmenistan, North Korea and Eritrea."

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    * Report - Ground-level ozone falling faster than model predicted

    "There is good news and better news about ground-level ozone in American cities. While dangerous ozone levels have fallen in places that clamp down on emissions from vehicles and industry, a new study from Rice University suggests that a model widely used to predict the impact of remediation efforts has been too conservative. Particularly in Northeastern cities, ozone levels dropped even beyond what was anticipated by cutting emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from 2002 to 2006. The study published online by the journal Atmospheric Environment suggests the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model misjudged the reduction in ozone by 20 to 60 percent. “The models have been underpredicting how much benefit we get from controlling NOx emissions in some instances,” said Daniel Cohan, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering and an author of the study with Rice graduate student Wei Zhou and Sergey Napelenok, a scientist in the Environmental Protection Agency’s Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division. “Following major controls of NOx, ozone has come down more quickly than anticipated,” Cohan said. “This is good news. But it also poses a challenge because states rely upon models to predict whether they’ll attain ozone standards in the future. If the models have key uncertainties that affect their responsiveness, that can affect the states’ control strategies.”

  • Reconciling NOx emissions reductions and ozone trends in the U.S., 2002–2006

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    * CRS - U.S. Immigration Policy: Chart Book of Key Trends

    U.S. Immigration Policy: Chart Book of Key Trends, Ruth Ellen Wasem, Specialist in Immigration Policy, March 7, 2013

  • "This report is a chart book of selected immigration trends that touch on the main elements of comprehensive immigration reform (CIR). Most policymakers agree that the main issues in CIR include increased border security and immigration enforcement, improved employment eligibility verification, revision of legal immigration, and options to address the millions of unauthorized aliens residing in the country. The report offers snapshots of time series data, using the most complete and consistent time series currently available for each statistic. The key findings and elements germane to the data depicted are summarized with the figures. The summary offers the highlights of key immigration trends."

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    * Federal Employees’ Retirement System: The Role of the Thrift Savings Plan

    CRS - Federal Employees’ Retirement System: The Role of the Thrift Savings Plan, Katelin P. Isaacs, Analyst in Income Security. March 8, 2013

  • "Federal employees participate in one of two retirement systems. The Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) was established in 1920 and covers only employees hired before 1984. Participants in the CSRS do not pay Social Security payroll taxes and they do not earn Social Security benefits. For a worker retiring after 30 years of federal service, a CSRS annuity will be equal to 56.25% of the average of his or her highest three consecutive years of basic pay."

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    • March 11, 2013
    * Temporary Assistance for Needy Families: Welfare Waivers

    CRS - Temporary Assistance for Needy Families: Welfare Waivers. Gene Falk, Specialist in Social Policy. March 7, 2013

  • The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced that it is willing to waive certain federal work participation standards under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) block grant to permit states to experiment with “alternative and innovative strategies, policies, and procedures that are designed to improve employment outcomes for needy families.” HHS announced this initiative on July 12, 2012. The major provision that HHS would waive is the numerical performance standards that states must meet or risk being penalized through a reduction in their TANF block grant. TANF statute provides that 50% of all families and 90% of two-parent families included in a participation rate are required to be engaged in work, though few states have ever faced the full standard because this percentage is reduced for certain credits."

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    • * Pogo Blog - 5 Great Online Tools for Mining Public Records

    Lili Shirley: "Thanks to our open records laws, you can find a treasure trove of information on the web—everything from details about publically traded companies to where stimulus funds are going. You can even submit Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests online. Take some time this week to educate yourself about the information and data available from government websites. Below are five great online tools that you can use to help hold government accountable."

  • See also Sunshine Week, March 10-16, 2013 - Open government is good government

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    * New GAO Reports - SaferProducts.gov, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, Federal Courthouses Construction, TARP, WIC Program
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    * Census Report - Out-of-State and Long Commutes: 2011

    Out-of-State and Long Commutes: 2011, By Brian McKenzie. February 2013

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    March 10, 2013
    * Federal Reserve Board - Beige Book - March 6, 2013

    Beige Book - March 6, 2013: "Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District. Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and based on information collected on or before February 22, 2013. This document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials. Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity generally expanded at a modest to moderate pace since the previous Beige Book. Five Districts reported that economic growth was moderate in January and early February, and five Districts reported that activity expanded at a modest pace. The Boston District said the economy continued to expand slowly, and the Chicago District reported that economic activity grew at a slow pace."

  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Report - Alternatives for Managing the Nation's Complex Contaminated Groundwater Sites

    "Across the United States, thousands of hazardous waste sites are contaminated with chemicals that prevent the underlying groundwater from meeting drinking water standards. These include Superfund sites and other facilities that handle and dispose of hazardous waste, active and inactive dry cleaners, and leaking underground storage tanks; many are at federal facilities such as military installations. While many sites have been closed over the past 30 years through cleanup programs run by the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. EPA, and other state and federal agencies, the remaining caseload is much more difficult to address because the nature of the contamination and subsurface conditions make it difficult to achieve drinking water standards in the affected groundwater. Alternatives for Managing the Nation's Complex Contaminated Groundwater Sites estimates that at least 126,000 sites across the U.S. still have contaminated groundwater, and their closure is expected to cost at least $110 billion to $127 billion. About 10 percent of these sites are considered "complex," meaning restoration is unlikely to be achieved in the next 50 to 100 years due to technological limitations. At sites where contaminant concentrations have plateaued at levels above cleanup goals despite active efforts, the report recommends evaluating whether the sites should transition to long-term management, where risks would be monitored and harmful exposures prevented, but at reduced costs."

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    * Report - Countering the Problem of Falsified and Substandard Drugs

    Countering the Problem of Falsified and Substandard Drugs, February 13, 2013

  • "Falsified and substandard medicines provide little protection from disease and, worse, can expose consumers to major harm. Bad drugs pose potential threats around the world, but the nature of the risk varies by country, with higher risk in countries with minimal or non-existent regulatory oversight. While developed countries are not immune, – negligent production at a Massachusetts compounding pharmacy killed 44 people from September 2012 to January 2013 – the vast majority of problems occur in developing countries where underpowered and unsafe medicines affect millions. It is difficult to measure the public health burden of falsified and substandard drugs, the number of deaths they cause, or the amount of time and money wasted using them. The FDA asked the IOM [Institute of Medicine] to assess the global public health implications of falsified, substandard, and counterfeit pharmaceuticals to help jumpstart international discourse about this problem. At the international level, productive discussion relies on cooperation and mutual trust. This report lays out a plan to invest in quality to improve public health."

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    March 09, 2013
    * Unofficial Problem Bank List

    Via Calculated Risk: Unofficial Problem Bank List Mar 8, 2013

  • See also related postings on financial system

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    * Coalition for the Homeless - Basic Facts About Homelessness

    "Coalition for the Homeless provides up-to-date information on New York City's homeless population. In recent years, homelessness in New York City has reached the highest levels since the Great Depression. You can find detailed information about homelessness -- including comprehensive statistics and historical data -- at the following pages:

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    * SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing and military services companies in the world excluding China, 2011

    Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: "The SIPRI Top 100 lists the world’s 100 largest arms-producing and military services companies (excluding Chinese companies)[a], ranked by their arms sales in 2011. The list is based on the comprehensive SIPRI Arms Industry Database, which contains financial and employment data on the world’s major arms-producing and military services companies."

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    March 08, 2013
    * American Banker Commentaries on new Dodd-Frank Stress Test Results

    Follow up to Federal Reserve releases summary results of bank stress tests, via American Banker (free to non subscribers): Fed Unveils Dodd-Frank Stress Test Results and Cheat Sheet: What the Dodd-Frank Stress Tests Really Mean.

  • See also related postings on financial system

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    * VA Review of Alleged Transmission of Sensitive VA Data Over Internet Connections

    VA Office of Inspector General, Office of Audits and Evaluations - Review of Alleged Transmission of Sensitive VA Data Over Internet Connections, March 6, 2013

  • "We substantiated the allegation that VA was transmitting sensitive data, including PII and internal network routing information, over an unencrypted telecommunications carrier network. Office of Information and Technology (OIT) personnel disclosed that VA typically transferred unencrypted sensitive data, such as electronic health records and internal Internet protocol addresses, among certain VA medical centers and Community Based Outpatient Clinics (CBOCs) using an unencrypted telecommunications carrier network."

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    * Health Insurance Market Reforms: Portability

    "Most Americans have access to health insurance through an employer-sponsored health plan, a fact that has made changing or losing a job a complex issue for the purposes of maintaining health insurance. Moving to a new job can be hard if the employer does not offer health insurance, or if the new employer’s health plan is not as generous as the previous employer’s plan. And with limited protections for people with pre-existing conditions, many people stay in jobs to keep their insurance rather than risk losing coverage. Portability, in the context of health insurance, describes the ability of an employee to maintain access to health insurance coverage and comprehensive benefits after leaving a job. It also applies to the ability of those purchasing insurance on their own to drop one insurance policy and buy another. This fact sheet explains how portability is regulated under current law and how the Affordable Care Act will affect portability in 2014."

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    * Working Paper - Information Flows in Dark Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades

    Information Flows in Dark Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades, by Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Maik Schmeling and Andreas Schrimpf. Working Papers No 405, March 2013. Bank for International Settlements

  • "We study the information in order flows of different customer segments in the world's largest over-the-counter market, the foreign exchange market. The analysis draws on a unique dataset covering a broad cross-section of currency pairs and distinguishing trades by key types of foreign exchange end-users. We find that order flows are highly informative about future exchange rates and provide significant economic value for the few large dealers who have access to these flows. Moreover, customer groups systematically engage in risk sharing with each other and differ markedly in their predictive ability, trading styles, and risk exposure."
  • See also related postings on financial system

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    * Financial crises and bank funding: recent experience in the euro area

    Financial crises and bank funding: recent experience in the euro area, by Adrian Van Rixtel and Gabriele Gasperini. Working Papers No 406, March 2013. Bank for International Settlements.

  • "This paper provides an overview of bank funding trends in the euro area following the 2007-09 global financial crisis and the euro area crisis. It shows that funding has become segmented along national borders and that secured instruments are much more prevalent than previously. Rising debt retention by euro area banks has accompanied greater dependence on liquidity provided by the ECB."
  • See also related postings on financial system

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    * CRS Reports remain out of public domain - new legislation seeks wider access

    Sunlight Foundation Blog, by Matthew Rumsey: March 7, 2013, "Representatives Leonard Lance (R-NJ) and Mike Quigley (D-IL) reintroduced legislation that will make it easier for the public, the media, and government employees to better understand the important policy matters facing Congress. The bipartisan "Public Access to Congressional Research Service Reports Resolution of 2013" would ensure that these reports, which are often cited by courts and the media and sold by third parties for $20 per copy, are freely available to the public on a website maintained by the House Clerk. When Representatives Lance and Quigley introduced this resolution in the 112th Congress we praised the bill, noting that "reliable access to CRS Reports would ensure that everyone has timely and comprehensive access to the collective wisdom of hundreds of analysts and experts on political issues when they're at their most salient." This is perhaps even more important today with controversial issues like the sequester and gun control tying our legislature in knots. A few non-profit organizations manage to make some of these reports freely available, but only the CRS can do this in a truly comprehensive manner."

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    March 07, 2013
    * BLS - February payroll employment rises (+236,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)

    New release: "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, construction, and health care. Household Survey Data: The unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent in February but has shown little movement, on net, since September 2012. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.0 million, also edged lower in February. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for whites (6.8 percent) declined in February while the rates for adult men (7.1 percent), adult women
    (7.0 percent), teenagers (25.1 percent), blacks (13.8 percent), and Hispanics (9.6 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.1 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. In February, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks
    or more) was about unchanged at 4.8 million. These individuals accounted for 40.2 percent of the unemployed."

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    * New GAO Reports - Cybersecurity, Defense Technology Development, National Defense, Food Assistance
    Permanent Link
    * Federal Reserve releases summary results of bank stress tests

    "The Dodd-Frank Act Stress Tests are a set of forward-looking exercises conducted both by the Federal Reserve and by financial companies regulated by the Federal Reserve. The stress tests were mandated by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and are intended to ensure institutions have sufficient capital to absorb losses and support operations during adverse economic conditions so that they do not pose risks to their communities, other institutions, or the broad economy. Bank holding companies with total consolidated assets of $50 billion or more and nonbank financial companies that the Financial Stability Oversight Council has designated for supervision by the Federal Reserve will undergo an annual supervisory stress test and semi-annual company-run stress tests. These firms will begin stress testing under DFA stress test rules in 2012. The firms will make summaries of the results of the company-run stress tests available to the public starting in March 2013. Bank holding companies with total consolidated assets between $10 billion and $50 billion and savings and loan holding companies and state member banks with total consolidated assets of more than $10 billion will undergo annual company-run stress tests. Stress tests for these firms generally begin in 2013."

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    * CRS - Party Leaders in the United States Congress, 1789-2013

    Party Leaders in the United States Congress, 1789-2013. Valerie Heitshusen - Analyst on Congress and the Legislative Process. March 4, 2013

  • "This report briefly describes current responsibilities and selection mechanisms for 15 House and Senate party leadership posts and provides tables with historical data, including service dates, party affiliation, and other information for each. Tables have been updated as of the report’s issuance date to reflect leadership changes. Although party divisions appeared almost from the First Congress, the formally structured party leadership organizations now taken for granted are a relatively modern development. Constitutionally specified leaders, namely the Speaker of the House and the President pro tempore of the Senate, can be identified since the first Congress. Other leadership posts, however, were not formally recognized until about the middle of the 19th century, and some are 20th century creations.

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    * CRS - Oil Sands and the Keystone XL Pipeline

    Follow up to previous posting on Keystone XL Pipeline Application, this new CRS report - Oil Sands and the Keystone XL Pipeline: Background and Selected Environmental Issues, February 21, 2013.

  • "If constructed, the Keystone XL pipeline would transport crude oil (e.g., synthetic crude oil or diluted bitumen) derived from oil sands in Alberta, Canada to destinations in the United States. Because the pipeline crosses an international border, it requires a Presidential Permit that is issued by the Department of State (DOS). The permit decision rests on a “national interest” determination, a term not defined in the authorizing Executive Orders. DOS states that it has “significant discretion” in the factors it examines in this determination."

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    * NOAA Report - Fisheries Economics of the United States 2011

    New release: "U.S. commercial and recreational saltwater fishing generated more than $199 billion in sales and supported 1.7 million jobs in the nation’s economy in 2011, according to a new economic report released by NOAA’s Fisheries Service. The report, Fisheries Economics of the United States 2011, is published annually on a two-year lag to allow data collection, analysis, and peer review. It provides economic statistics on U.S. commercial and recreational fisheries and marine-related businesses for each coastal state and the nation. Key to the report are the economic effects--jobs, sales, income, and value added to Gross National Product--of the commercial and recreational fishing industries. “Economic impact” measures how sales in each sector ripple throughout the state and national economy as each dollar spent generates additional sales by other firms and consumers."

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    * Identifying Term Interbank Loans from Fedwire Payments Data

    NY Fed Reserve: Identifying Term Interbank Loans from Fedwire Payments Data. Dennis Kuo, David Skeie, James Vickery, and Thomas Youle. March 2013 - Number 603.

  • "Interbank markets for term maturities experienced great stress during the 2007-09 financial crisis, as illustrated by the behavior of one- and three-month Libor. Despite widespread interest in these markets, little data are available on dollar interbank lending for maturities beyond overnight. We develop a methodology to infer individual term dollar interbank loans (for maturities between two days and one year) by applying a set of filters to payments settled on the Fedwire Funds Service, the large-value bank payment system operated by the Federal Reserve Banks. Our approach introduces several innovations and refinements relative to previous research by Furfine (1999) and others that measures overnight interbank lending. Diagnostic tests to date suggest our approach provides a novel and useful source of information about the term interbank market, allowing for a number of research applications. Limitations of the algorithm and caveats on its use are discussed in detail. We also present stylized facts based on the algorithm's results, focusing on the 2007-09 period. At the crisis peak following the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, we observe a sharp increase in the dispersion of inferred term interbank interest rates, a shortening of loan maturities, and a decline in term lending volume."
  • See also related postings on financial system

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    * Women, Minorities, and Persons with Disabilities in Science and Engineering

    "The National Science Foundation (NSF) last week released its biennial report, Women, Minorities, and Persons with Disabilities in Science and Engineering, which provides a snapshot (as of 2010) of the participation of those groups which are underrepresented in science and engineering education and employment in the United States. The report, which takes its data primarily from surveys conducted by the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics and is mandated by the 1980 Science and Engineering Equal Opportunities Act, reports no startling jumps or dips in participation in science and engineering by underrepresented minority (URM) groups, but it does show that URMs are slowly—in some cases very slowly—catching up with their white peers, except for in a couple of fields...The report reveals a depressing trend for [underrepresented minorities] rising to full professorships: Their share of these positions hasn't improved much in nearly 20 years."

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    * Partnership for a Healthier America Releases First Report on Private Sector Progress in Childhood Obesity Efforts

    "The Partnership for a Healthier America (PHA), which works with Honorary Chair First Lady Michelle Obama and the private sector to end childhood obesity in a generation, today released its first report on the progress of private sector commitments to address the epidemic. The report comes as PHA kicks off its second Building a Healthier Future Summit in Washington D.C., where leaders from across the public and private sectors are coming together to identify solutions to the childhood obesity crisis in the United States. PHA requires its partners do more than just issue a press release—instead partners must agree to measureable outcomes that are verified by third parties and reported publicly by PHA. The 2012 Annual Progress Report is a glimpse at where each partner stands. While the vast majority of PHA’s partners are just beginning a multi-year journey, others are in full swing—and a few have completed their commitments."

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    March 06, 2013
    * Firearm Legislation and Firearm-Related Fatalities in the United States

    Firearm Legislation and Firearm-Related Fatalities in the United States. Eric W. Fleegler, MD, MPH; Lois K. Lee, MD, MPH; Michael C. Monuteaux, ScD; David Hemenway, PhD; Rebekah Mannix, MD, MPH

    Permanent Link
    * House Report - IG Recommendations Could Save Taxpayers $67 Billion

    Open and Unimplemented - IG Recommendations Could Save Taxpayers $67 Billion, Staff Report Prepared for Chairman Darrell Issa, House of Representatives, 113th Congress, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. March 5, 2013

  • "The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform has jurisdiction over the IG community. This staff report is a compilation of four years’ worth of data provided to the Committee by the IGs. The IGs responded to annual requests from the Committee for the volume and value of their open and unimplemented recommendations beginning in 2009. Based on data provided annually by the IGs, the Committee’s Republican staff found that agency management has not implemented thousands of recommendations that would save taxpayers more than $67 billion. The backlog for implementing IG recommendations has reached an all - time high, and the volume of recommendations that remain unimplemented continues to increase every year. In 2008, then - Chairman
    Henry Waxman found that the Bush Administration did not fully
    implement more than 13,800 IG recommendations made since 2001. Since then - Ranking Member Darrell Issa began surveying the IGs, the total number of open and unimplemented recommendations has increased dramatically, from 10,894 in 2009 to 16,906 in 2012."

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    March 05, 2013
    * The 2013 Cybersecurity Executive Order: Overview and Considerations for Congress

    CRS - The 2013 Cybersecurity Executive Order: Overview and Considerations for Congress, March 1, 2013

  • "The federal role in cybersecurity has been a topic of discussion and debate for over a decade. Despite significant legislative efforts in the 112th Congress, no major legislation on this topic has been enacted since the Federal Information Security Management Act (FISMA) in 2002, which addressed the security of federal information systems. In February 2013, the White House issued an executive order designed to improve the cybersecurity of U.S. critical infrastructure (CI). Citing repeated cyber-intrusions into critical infrastructure and growing cyberthreats, Executive Order 13636, Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity, attempts to enhance security and resiliency of CI through voluntary, collaborative efforts involving federal agencies and owners and operators of privately owned CI, as well as use of existing federal regulatory authorities."

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    * Inflation and the Real Minimum Wage: A Fact Sheet

    CRS - Inflation and the Real Minimum Wage: A Fact Sheet. Craig K. Elwell, Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy; Linda Levine, Specialist in Labor Economics. February 26, 2013

  • "The minimum wage is not indexed to the price level. It has been legislatively increased from time to time to make up for the loss in its real value caused by inflation. In nominal (current dollar) terms, the minimum wage has risen steadily from 25 cents to $7.25 an hour, where it has remained since its effective date of July 2009. As the legislated adjustments to the minimum wage standard have occurred at irregular intervals—sometimes increasing annually, other times not for several years—while prices have generally risen each year, the purchasing power (real or constant dollar value) of the minimum wage has varied considerably since its enactment."

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    * GAO Report - Multiemployer Plans and PBGC Face Urgent Challenges

    Private Pensions - Multiemployer Plans and PBGC Face Urgent Challenges, GAO-13-428T, March 5, 2013

  • "The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation's (PBGC) financial assistance to multiemployer plans continues to increase, and plan insolvencies threaten PBGC's multiemployer insurance fund. As a result of current and anticipated financial assistance, the present value of PBGC's liability for plans that are insolvent or expected to become insolvent within 10 years increased from $1.8 to $7.0 billion between fiscal years 2008 and 2012. Yet PBGC's multiemployer insurance fund only had $1.8 billion in total assets in 2012. PBGC officials said that financial assistance to these plans would likely exhaust the fund in or about 2023. If the fund is exhausted, many retirees will see their pension benefits reduced to a small fraction of their original value because only a reduced stream of insurance premium payments will be available to pay benefits."

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    * CRS - Public Access to Data from Federally Funded Research

    Public Access to Data from Federally Funded Research: Provisions in OMB Circular A-110. Eric A. Fischer, Senior Specialist in Science and Technology. March 1, 2013

  • "The results of scientific studies are often used in making government policy decisions. While the studies are often published, traditional federal research funding policies did not require the data on which they are based to be made available publicly. Such policies did, however, generally require researchers to share data and physical samples with other scientists after publication of the research. A rider, often called the Shelby Amendment or Data Access Act, that was attached to the Omnibus Appropriations Act for FY1999, P.L. 105-277, mandated the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to amend Circular A-110 to require federal agencies to ensure that “all data produced under a [federally funded] award will be made available to the public through the procedures established under the Freedom of Information Act [FOIA].” The amendment
    authorizes user fees. OMB was required to make changes and release a revised circular; subsequently, agencies that chose to do so issued their own conforming rules. The final revision was published in the Federal Register on October 8, 1999, and has not been changed in subsequent updates to the circular."

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    * CRS - Federal Financial Reporting: An Overview

    Federal Financial Reporting: An Overview, Meredith A. Levine, Analyst in Government Organization and Management. February 27, 2013

  • "Federal financial reporting—defined here as the process of recording retrospective executive department-level financial and performance information—can provide both a snapshot of the government’s financial health at a given moment in time, as well as an accounting of its financial performance over a particular time frame. Federal financial reports may help the federal government demonstrate accountability, provide in formation for policy formulation and planning, and be used to evaluate governmental performance. Multiple reports are required by law, and all are intended to permit users—Congress, the President, agency heads, program managers, and citizens—to see how the government raises, handles, and expends public money. Congress, in particular, may find the information in federal financial reports useful for oversight."
  • See also related postings on financial system

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    * Census - Megacommuters: 600,000 in U.S. Travel 90 Minutes and 50 Miles to Work

    "About 8.1 percent of U.S. workers have commutes of 60 minutes or longer, 4.3 percent work from home, and nearly 600,000 full-time workers had "megacommutes" of at least 90 minutes and 50 miles. [See the report - Mega Commuting in the U.S.] The average one-way daily commute for workers across the country is 25.5 minutes, and one in four commuters leave their county to work. These figures come from the U.S. Census Bureau's annual American Community Survey, which provides local statistics on a variety of topics for even the smallest communities. According to Out-of-State and Long Commutes: 2011, 23.0 percent of workers with long commutes (60 minutes or more) use public transit, compared with 5.3 percent for all workers. Only 61.1 percent of workers with long commutes drove to work alone, compared with 79.9 percent for all workers who worked outside the home."

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    * Report - Ensuring the Health Care Needs of Women: A Checklist for Health Exchanges

    Ensuring the Health Care Needs of Women: A Checklist for Health Exchanges, February 2013

  • "To inform the development of the state health insurance Exchanges under the Affordable Care Act, this checklist identifies key coverage, affordability and access issues that are important for women. Based on lessons learned from women’s health research and the Massachusetts experience, the checklist considers essential health benefits, implementation of no-cost preventive services including contraception, provider networks and affordability, outreach and enrollment efforts, and the importance of including gender and other demographic characteristics in data collection and reporting standards. It was jointly authored by policy experts at the Kaiser Family Foundation, The Connors Center for Women’s Health and Gender Biology at the Brigham and Women’s Hospital and the Jacobs Institute of Women’s Health at The George Washington University."

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    * SIGR - Projects Financed with Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Funds

    Office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) Audit, Government Agencies Cannot Fully Identify Projects Financed with Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Funds (SIGIR 13-006), March 6, 2013

  • "Following the 2003 intervention in Iraq and the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, the United States initiated a major relief and reconstruction program to stabilize the country, rehabilitate the economy, provide a secure and safe environment by recruiting and training Iraq
    police and military forces, and provide for humanitarian and emergency relief, among other objectives. Over the last nine years, the United States provided billions of dollars for thousands of projects funded and managed by multiple federal agencies. These projects ranged from small-scale efforts such as providing cash to individual Iraqis for humanitarian relief, to large-scale construction projects to revitalize Iraq’s infrastructure. Altogether, $60.6 billion in U.S. appropriated funds were allocated to this effort."

    Permanent Link
    • * European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) – what you need to know

    "The European Union regulation on derivatives, central counterparties (CCPs) and trade repositories introduces new requirements to improve transparency and reduce the risks associated with the derivatives market. EMIR also establishes common organisational, conduct of business and prudential standards for CCPs and trade repositories. EMIR imposes requirements on all types and sizes of entities that enter into any form of derivative contract, including those not involved in financial services. It applies indirectly to non-EU firms trading with EU firm."

  • See also ISDA Webinar - Non Financial Corporates’ requirements under EMIR, 27 February 2013

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    March 04, 2013
    * EPIC Prevails in Social Media Monitoring FOIA Suit

    "EPIC has obtained a court order and an opinion in a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against the Department of Homeland Security, requiring the agency to turn over more documents about the monitoring of social media and Internet media organizations. EPIC had previously obtained several hundred pages of documents, revealing that the agency monitors the internet for reports that “reflect adversely” on the agency or the federal government. EPIC also obtained a list of very broad search terms used by the agency to monitor social media. As a result of EPIC’s findings, Congress held a hearing on "DHS Monitoring of Social Networking and Media: Enhancing Intelligence Gathering and Ensuring Privacy." For more information see: EPIC: EPIC v. Department of Homeland Security: Media Monitoring."

    Permanent Link
    * New GAO Reports - Medicare Advantage, Select Agent Program
    Permanent Link
    * Fed Vice Chair Speech - Challenges Confronting Monetary Policy

    Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen At the 2013 National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.
    March 4, 2013 - Challenges Confronting Monetary Policy

  • "...the Federal Reserve initiated a new asset purchase program last September, extending it in December, under which the Federal Reserve is currently buying agency-guaranteed MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. As with the guidance for the federal funds rate, the Committee tied the new program to labor market conditions, stating that purchases would continue until there is a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability.21 The FOMC's earlier large-scale asset purchase programs, in contrast, were fixed in size and carried out on a specified schedule. The Committee has also noted that, in determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, it would take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. The purpose of the new asset purchase program is to foster a stronger economic recovery, or, put differently, to help the economy attain "escape velocity."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Fed Governor Speech on Ending "Too Big to Fail"

    Governor Jerome H. Powell At the Institute of International Bankers 2013 Washington Conference, Washington, D.C., March 4, 2013

  • Ending "Too Big to Fail" - "Today I will discuss "too big to fail" and the ongoing work since the financial crisis to end it. More than three years into this effort, there have been sweeping reforms to the regulation of large financial organizations in the United States and around the world. Substantial proportions of the new rules are designed to end the practice of bailing out such firms with taxpayer money. The too-big-to-fail reform project is massive in scope. In my view, it holds real promise. But the project will take years to complete. Success is not assured. In the meantime, some urge the adoption of more intrusive reforms, such as a return to Glass-Steagall-style activity limits, more stringent limits on size or systemic footprint, or a requirement that the largest institutions break up into much smaller pieces. I believe that public discussion and evaluation of these ideas is important. At a minimum, we need to thoroughly understand these alternatives in case the existing reform project falters."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Recent college graduates in the U.S. labor force: data from the Current Population Survey

    Monthly Labor Review Online, Thomas Luke Spreen, February 2013, Vol. 136, No. 2: "Data collected each October in the School Enrollment Supplement to the Current Population Survey provide an annual snapshot of the demographic characteristics, labor force activity, and school enrollment status of each year's cohort of recent college graduates Every year, thousands of recent graduates of colleges and universities across the United States enter the labor force with newly minted degrees and high hopes about their employment prospects.1 In October 2011, 74.5 percent of the 1.3 million 2011 recent college graduates were employed, according to data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). The unemployment rate for the 2011 cohort of recent college graduates was 12.6 percent. CPS data also show variation in the labor force status of bachelor's and advanced degree recipients."

  • See also BLS news release: Thirty percent of women and 22 percent of men earned a bachelor's degree by age 25

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    * Average Food Prices: a snapshot of how much has changed over a century

    Jonathan Church and Ken Stewart: "In January 1913, when the U.S. Department of Labor was formed, the buffalo nickel would soon replace the Liberty Head nickel, women were protesting for the right to vote, and a family could buy a pound of potatoes for less than two cents. Fast forward 100 years to January 2013, when the U.S. Department of Labor is a century old, credit cards and online purchases are the more common forms of payment than the cash purchases of 1913, a record number of women are elected to Congress, and a pound of potatoes now costs 62 cents. These historic comparisons show how much has changed in the United States, and food prices have changed as well. To examine prices over time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has Consumer Price Index (CPI) data going back to January 1913 and a few average prices going back to at least that far. This article summarizes some average food prices over the last century."

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    March 03, 2013
    * Report - Strengthening America's Commitment to Passenger Rail

    A New Alignment: Strengthening America's Commitment to Passenger Rail, by Robert Puentes, Adie Tomer and Joseph Kane

  • "American passenger rail is in the midst of a renaissance. Ridership on Amtrak — the primary U.S. carrier — is now at record levels and growing fast. This research shows that the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas are primarily behind this trend, especially ten major metros responsible for nearly two-thirds of total ridership."

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    * Health Status, Health Insurance and Medical Services Utilization: 2001-2011

    "A table package that highlights the relationship between the use of medical services (such as visits to doctors and nights spent in the hospital), health status, health insurance coverage and other demographic and economic characteristics. The statistics come from the Survey of Income and Program Participation."

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    * Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries Other Than Iran

    News release and Full Report with data: "The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global liquid fuels1 consumption outpaced production in January and February 2013, resulting in a 1.3-million-barrel-per-day (bbl/d) average draw in global oil stocks. Crude oil prices moved higher during this period, rising above the trading range they had been in for much of fourth quarter 2012. The front month Brent futures contract averaged $114.08 per barrel for the five-day period ending February 26, about $5 per barrel higher than the five-day period ending December 21. On February 8, Brent crude oil prices settled at their highest level since early May 2012."

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    * Report - More than One in Six Americans Report Inability to Afford Enough Food

    News release: "Millions of Americans continued in 2012 to struggle to afford enough food, according to new, up-to-date food hardship data from the Food Research and Action Center (FRAC). More than one in six Americans (18.2 percent) said in 2012 that there had been times over the past 12 months that they didn’t have enough money to buy food that they or their families needed. FRAC’s food hardship report – Food Hardship in America 2012 – analyzes data that were collected by Gallup and provided to FRAC. The data were gathered as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index project, which has been interviewing almost 1,000 households daily since January 2008. FRAC has analyzed responses to the question: “Have there been times in the past twelve months when you did not have enough money to buy food that you or your family needed?” The report contains data throughout 2012 for every state, region, congressional district, and 100 of the country’s largest metropolitan areas (MSA)."

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    * New York Federal Reserve - Financial Stability Monitoring

    Financial Stability Monitoring, February 2013, Number 601. Authors: Tobias Adrian, Daniel Covitz, and Nellie J. Liang

  • "While the Dodd-Frank Act (DFA) broadens the regulatory reach to reduce systemic risks to the U.S. financial system, it does not address some important risks that could migrate to or emanate from entities outside the federal safety net. At the same time, it limits the types of interventions by financial authorities to address systemic events when they occur. As a result, a broad and forward-looking monitoring program, which seeks to identify financial vulnerabilities and guide the development of preemptive policies to help mitigate them, is essential. Systemic vulnerabilities arise from market failures that can lead to excessive leverage, maturity transformation, interconnectedness, and complexity. These vulnerabilities, when hit by adverse shocks, can lead to fire-sale dynamics, negative feedback loops, and inefficient contractions in the supply of credit. We present a framework that centers on the vulnerabilities that propagate adverse shocks, rather than shocks themselves, which are difficult to predict. Vulnerabilities can emerge in four areas: 1) systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs), 2) shadow banking, 3) asset markets, and 4) the nonfinancial sector. This framework also highlights how policies that reduce the likelihood of systemic crises may do so only by raising the cost of financial intermediation in noncrisis periods."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * State Department Report on New Keystone XL Pipeline Application

    On March 1, 2013, the Department of State posted a copy of the Environmental Resources Management (ERM) contract and organizational conflicts of interest disclosures.

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    * Report - Money Matters - Stresses Need for Student Financial Literacy Education

    News release: "A new report detailing the findings from a survey of 40,000 first-year college students from across the U.S. demonstrates to colleges and universities how student financial problems not only impact individual student outcomes but also the institutional mission. Money Matters on Campus: How Early Attitudes and Behaviors Affect the Financial Decisions of First-Year College Students identified first-year college students’ attitudes towards debt as well as related financial behaviors to determine what role each plays in student financial outcomes."

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    March 02, 2013
    * United States Holocaust Memorial Museum have concluded that over 40,000 Nazi camps and ghettos existed during Hitler's reign of terror between 1933 to 1945

    Huffington Post: "Researchers from the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum have concluded that over 40,000 Nazi camps and ghettos existed during Hitler's reign of terror between 1933 to 1945. The total is far higher than most historians had previously estimated, according to The New York Times. Geoffrey Megargee and Martin Dean, the lead editors of the project, have compiled the thousands of sites in a multivolume encyclopedia that is being published by the Holocaust Museum. Each volume catalogs thousands of sites, providing a comprehensive history of the "living and working conditions, activities of the Jewish councils, Jewish responses to persecution, demographic changes, and details of the liquidation of the ghettos." The Holocaust Museum team also created maps of the sites, which were scattered across Europe, and which imprisoned or killed between 15 and 20 million people. Essentially, this study shows the Holocaust was far more extensive than even historians comprehended. Hartmut Berghoff, director of the German Historical Institute, said the research is simply astounding, reports The Times. "We knew before how horrible life in the camps and ghettos was," he said, "but the numbers are unbelievable." The researchers' work may also help Holocaust survivors attempting to sue insurance companies or recover stolen property. "How many claims have been rejected because the victims were in a camp that we didn't even know about?" said Sam Dubbin, a lawyer who represents survivors. Over the years, many scholars have worked to uncover the lost or unknown victims of the Holocaust, and some have insisted the death toll is higher than what the textbooks say. The number of Jews killed is often listed at around six million. Father Patrick Desbois told the London Times in 2009 that after years of investigating mass graves in Ukraine, he feels the death toll should be revised upward. This latest research is yet another piece of evidence that can be used to refute the fringe movement that continues to deny the Holocaust took place, or that its terrible legacy has been exaggerated for political gain."

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    * Recent updates regarding the Independent Foreclosure Review Payment Agreement

    Link: "In January 2013, thirteen mortgage servicing companies subject to enforcement actions for deficient practices in mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure processing reached an agreement in principle with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to provide more than $9.3 billion in cash payments and other assistance to help borrowers. The sum includes $3.6 billion in direct cash payments to borrowers covered by the agreement and $5.7 billion in other foreclosure prevention assistance, such as loan modifications and forgiveness of deficiency judgments. For the participating servicers, fulfillment of the agreement satisfies the foreclosure review requirements of enforcement actions issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Office of Thrift Supervision in April and September 2011 and April 2012."

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    * Chairman Ben S. Bernanke on Long-Term Interest Rates

    Chairman Ben S. Bernanke At the Annual Monetary/Macroeconomics Conference: The Past and Future of Monetary Policy, sponsored by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California
    March 1, 2013 - Long-Term Interest Rates

  • "In my comments, I will delve more deeply into the reasons why these long-term interest rates have fallen so low. This examination may be useful both for understanding the current stance of policy and also for thinking about how rates may evolve. In short, we expect that as the economy recovers, long-term rates will rise over time to more normal levels. A return to more normal conditions in financial markets would, of course, be most welcome. Many commentators have noted, however, that both an extended period of low rates and the transition back toward normal levels may pose risks to financial stability. In the final portion of my remarks, I will discuss some aspects of how the Federal Reserve is approaching these risks."

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    * NY Fed - The Implementation of Current Asset Purchases

    The Implementation of Current Asset Purchases. March 1, 2013. Simon Potter, Executive Vice President. Remarks at the Annual Meeting with Primary Dealers, New York City

  • "The Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs were designed to remove risk from the portfolios of private investors. For example, Treasury and agency MBS purchases remove duration risk, thereby lowering longer-term interest rates and reducing private sector borrowing costs. Furthermore, agency MBS purchases also remove prepayment risk in the market. Since homeowners can prepay their mortgage at any time, MBS investors do not know when they will receive their cash flows. Investors generally demand an extra return to bear this risk, which is incorporated into MBS yields and in part passed along to borrowers. The removal of a considerable amount of this risk by the Fed’s purchases would be expected to lower MBS rates by lowering this extra return, thereby reducing primary mortgage rates, stimulating demand for housing and prompting increased refinancing activity."

    • Permanent Link
    March 01, 2013
    * National Pipeline Mapping System

    The NPMS Public Map Viewer enables the user to view National Pipeline Mapping System (NPMS) data one county at a time. NPMS data consists of gas transmission pipelines and hazardous liquid trunklines. It does not contain gathering or distribution pipelines, such as lines which deliver gas to a customer's home. Therefore, not all pipelines in an area will be visible in the Public Map Viewer. NPMS data is for reference purposes only. It should never be used as a substitute for contacting a one-call center prior to excavation activities. Please call 811 before any digging occurs."

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    * New GAO Reports - Presidential Appointments, End-Stage Renal Disease, Export Promotion
    Permanent Link
    * The U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and the Demand for Oil

    De Schryder, Selien and Peersman, Gert, The U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and the Demand for Oil (February 27, 2013). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4126. Available at SSRN.

  • "Using recent advances in panel data estimation techniques, we find that an appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate leads to a significant decline in oil demand for a sample of 65 oil-importing countries. The estimated effect turns out to be much larger than the impact of a shift in the global crude oil price expressed in US dollar. Furthermore, the effect of the US dollar on oil demand tends to be declining over time and, for a subsample of OECD countries, stronger for an appreciation compared to a depreciation of the US dollar."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * New Data Shows 29 States Hit Record Export Levels In 2012

    New release: "U.S. Deputy Secretary of Commerce Rebecca Blank today announced new state export data that shows 29 states set new records for export sales in 2012. In total, 35 states achieved merchandise export growth in 2012, and 20 of those states experienced growth of at least five percent or more. Total merchandise exports from all 50 states helped contribute to the record-setting value of goods and services exports in 2012, which reached $2.2 trillion. Nationally, jobs supported by exports increased to 9.8 million in 2012, up 1.3 million since 2009. This puts us ahead of schedule to meet the President’s goal of adding two million export-supported jobs by the end of 2014...More information about individual state contributions to national exports is available through the International Trade Administration’s Office of Trade and Industry Information web page, which includes individual fact sheets for all 50 states."

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    February 28, 2013
    * Amendments to Consent Orders Memorialize $9.3 Billion Foreclosure Agreement

    News release: "The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Reserve Board today released amendments to their enforcement actions against 13 mortgage servicers for deficient practices in mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure processing. The amendments require the servicers to provide $9.3 billion in payments and other assistance to borrowers. The amendments memorialize agreements in principle announced in January with Aurora, Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, MetLife Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Sovereign, SunTrust, U.S. Bank, and Wells Fargo. The amount includes $3.6 billion in cash payments and $5.7 billion in other assistance to borrowers such as loan modifications and forgiveness of deficiency judgments. Borrowers covered by the amendments include 4.2 million people whose homes were in any stage of the foreclosure process in 2009 or 2010 and whose mortgages were serviced by one of the companies listed above. These borrowers are expected to be contacted by the Paying Agent--Rust Consulting, Inc.--by the end of March 2013 with payment details. The Paying Agent will send payments and correspondence."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * New Documents Reveal U.S. Marshals’ Drones Experiment

    "The use of surveillance drones is growing rapidly in the United States, but we know little about how the federal government employs this new technology. Now, new information obtained by the ACLU shows for the first time that the U.S. Marshals Service has experimented with using drones for domestic surveillance. We learned this through documents we released today, received in response to a Freedom of Information Act request. The documents are available here. (We also released a short log of drone accidents from the Federal Aviation Administration as well as accident reports and other documents from the U.S. Air Force.) This revelation comes a week after a bipartisan bill to protect Americans’ privacy from domestic drones was introduced in the House."

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    * New Report Documents Evolving Tax-Time Financial Products Market

    "As tax season shifts in to full swing, the National Consumer Law Center (NCLC) and Consumer Federation of America (CFA) have issued their eleventh annual report on the tax-time financial products industry: Something Old, Something New in Tax-Time Financial Products: Refund Anticipation Checks and the Next Wave of Quickie Tax Loans. The good news? For the first time in decades, millions of taxpayers will avoid having their refunds drained by refund anticipation loans (RALs), which are no longer available from banks on a large scale, nationwide basis. The bad news? Taxpayers are still at risk of needless fees from tax-time refund products, such as:

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    * U.S. crude oil production tops 7 million barrels per day, highest since December 1992

    EIA: "U.S. crude oil production exceeded an average 7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in November and December 2012, the highest volume since December 1992. The end-of-year data were reported on February 27 in EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly. Increasing oil production in North Dakota and onshore Texas drove the increase in U.S. crude oil production over the last several months (although crude oil production in North Dakota took a dip in November, before increasing again in December). Much of the increase in crude oil production is coming from shale and other tight (very low permeability) formations."

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    * New GAO Reports - Broadcast and Cable Television, Defense Logistics, Prescription Drugs, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
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    * Total Consumer Debt Up Slightly as Deleveraging Process Decelerates

    "In its latest Household Debt and Credit Report, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that in the fourth quarter of 2012 outstanding consumer debt increased slightly ($31 billion), breaking the downward trend observed since the fourth quarter of 2008. The increase was primarily due to a rise in non-housing debt and the stabilization of mortgage debt. Total consumer indebtedness was $11.34 trillion, 0.3 percent higher than the previous quarter but considerably lower than its peak of $12.68 trillion in the third quarter of 2008. While outstanding mortgage debt remained roughly flat, originations of new mortgages rose to $553 billion, a fifth consecutive quarterly increase. Non-housing debt balances increased for the third straight quarter and now stand at $2.75 trillion, up 1.31 percent in the fourth quarter. All non-housing components increased; auto loans up $15 billion, student loans up $10 billion and credit cards up $5 billion."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * The Distribution of Cited U.S. Congressional Committee Documents in the Academic Journal Literature

    The Distribution of Cited U.S. Congressional Committee Documents in the Academic Journal Literature: An Historical Survey, by John Spencer Walters, Regional Depository Librarian at Utah State University

  • "This paper is the culmination of a six-year effort to reveal the citation patterns of U.S. congressional committee level publications in the professional journal literature. Using the Web of Science database (from the beginning of its coverage through 2005) the author culled 16,395 records that cited congressional hearings, prints, and reports and documents. Gathering and recording this data required a sustained effort over several years. Particular attention was paid to committee prints and hearings published over the period, 1960–2000. Some findings were counter intuitive; some were less surprising; some findings may inform government documents specialists in the collecting, retaining, and digitizing of U.S. congressional committee level government documents."

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    • * Rethinking potential output: Embedding information about the financial cycle

    Rethinking potential output: Embedding information about the financial cycle by Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat and Mikael Juselius, Working Papers No 404, February 2013

  • "This paper argues that incorporating information about the financial cycle is important to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. Conceptually, identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive. Potential output is seen as sustainable; yet experience indicates that output may be on an unsustainable path even if inflation is low and stable whenever financial imbalances are building up. More generally, as long as potential output is identified with the non-cyclical component of output fluctuations and financial factors play a key role in explaining the cyclical part, ignoring these factors leaves out valuable information. Within a simple and transparent framework, we show that including information about the financial cycle can yield measures of potential output and output gaps that are not only estimated more precisely, but also much more robust in real time. In the context of policy applications, such "finance-neutral" output gaps are shown to yield more reliable estimates of cyclically adjusted budget balances and to serve as complementary guides for monetary policy."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Pew - Most Say Spending Cuts Would Have Major Impact on Economy, Military

    "While many Americans may be resigned to seeing automatic spending cuts in the budget sequester go into effect, the public is concerned about the potential impact of the reductions. A new national survey by the Pew Research Center and The Washington Post, conducted Feb. 21-24 among 1,000 adults, finds that most say the budget sequester would have a major effect on the economy as well as on the U.S. military. And by more than three-to-one (62%-18%), the public sees the impact on the economy as mostly negative rather than mostly positive. But signs of public fatigue after a series of fiscal crises remain apparent. Just days before automatic federal spending cuts are set to take place, only a quarter are following the issue very closely. By comparison, four-in-ten were closely tracking the fiscal cliff debate in December a full month before the deadline."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Report - A Matter of Degrees: The Effect of Educational Attainment on Regional Economic Prosperity

    A Matter of Degrees: The Effect of Educational Attainment on Regional Economic Prosperity, Ross DeVol, I-Ling Shen, Armen Bedroussian and Nan Zhang. February 27, 2013

  • "When it comes to education, a rising tide really does lift all boats. That's one of the conclusions of this sweeping research report. Ross DeVol, chief research officer and one of the report authors, explains: "Our research makes a compelling case that for America's communities, the returns to investment from higher education have never been greater. We pinpoint the value regional economies gain by adding better-educated workers and show that, as those around you obtain more education, their wages rise – and yours do, too." While it's intuitive that an educated population, good jobs, and prosperity go hand-in-hand, this study proves the strong relationship between education and a region's economic performance. Institute economists created a unique data set linking educational attainment and occupational trends over time and by region. The report and the accompanying data site not only provide a blueprint for policy makers and leaders to boost education: they can help career seekers figure out where they can get the most bang from their educational buck."

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    February 27, 2013
    * CRS - Arms Control and Nonproliferation: A Catalog of Treaties and Agreements

    CRS - Arms Control and Nonproliferation: A Catalog of Treaties and Agreements, February 20, 2013.

  • Arms control and nonproliferation efforts are two of the tools that have occasionally been used to implement U.S. national security strategy. Although some believe these tools do little to restrain the behavior of U.S. adversaries, while doing too much to restrain U.S. military forces and operations, many other analysts see them as an effective means to promote transparency, ease military planning, limit forces, and protect against uncertainty and surprise. Arms control and nonproliferation efforts have produced formal treaties and agreements, informal arrangements, and cooperative threat reduction and monitoring mechanisms. The pace of implementation for many of these agreements slowed during the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration usually preferred unilateral or ad hoc measures to formal treaties and agreements to address U.S. security concerns. But the Obama Administration resumed bilateral negotiations with Russia and pledged its support for a number of multilateral arms control and
    nonproliferation efforts."

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    * Visualizing Health Policy: The Public's Health Care Agenda for 2013

    "This month’s JAMA/Kaiser Family Foundation infographic in the Visualizing Health Policy series takes a look at the U.S. public’s priorities for health care in 2013, including actions by state governments (such as creating a health insurance exchange or marketplace), Medicaid expansion, Medicare spending, and spending for specific types of public health activities."

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    * CRS - Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations

    Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations, Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs. February 26, 2013

  • "This report provides a brief overview of the key issues for Congress related to Egypt and information on U.S. foreign aid to Egypt. The United States has provided significant military and economic assistance to Egypt since the late 1970s. U.S. policy makers have routinely justified aid to Egypt as an investment in regional stability, built primarily on long-running military cooperation and on sustaining the March 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. Successive U.S. Administrations have viewed Egypt’s government as generally influencing developments in the Middle East in line with U.S. interests. U.S. policy makers are now grappling with complex questions about the future of U.S.-Egypt relations, and these debates and events in Egypt are shaping consideration of appropriations and authorization legislation in the 113th Congress."

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    * New GAO Reports - Combating Autism Act, E-Health Records, Federal Real Property, Indian Affairs, Strategic Sourcing
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    * FDIC-Insured Institutions Earned $34.7 Billion in The Fourth Quarter of 2012

    News release: "Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $34.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2012, a $9.3 billion (36.9 percent) improvement from the $25.3 billion in profits the industry reported in the fourth quarter of 2011. This is the 14th quarter in a row that earnings have registered a year-over-year increase. Increased noninterest income and lower provisions for loan losses continued to account for most of the year-over-year improvement in earnings. For the full year, industry earnings totaled $141.3 billion — a 19.3 percent improvement over 2011 and the second-highest ever reported by the industry after the $145.2 billion earned in 2006."

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    * Public.Resource.Org's FedFlix - view government videotapes on the web

    "FedFlix is a joint venture with the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) in cooperation with other government agencies including the National Archives. They send us government videotapes, we upload them to the Internet Archive, YouTube, and our own public domain stock footage video library — then we send the government back their videotapes and a disk drive with their digitized video. To The Movies!

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    * FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile

    Quarterly Banking Profile - February 26, 2013: "The fourth quarter 2012 comprehensive summary of financial results for all FDIC-insured institutions have been released."

  • See also - "QBP Statistics at a Glance provides the latest quarterly and historical data for FDIC-insured institutions, the Deposit Insurance Fund, and the number of FDIC employees beginning with the June 2001 issue."

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    * World Health Organization - Tobacco control country profiles

    Tobacco control country profiles - "The country profiles were generated from data collected for the WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic, 2011: warning about the dangers of tobacco. The country profiles provide information about tobacco prevalence, preventive measures, cessation and tobacco economics."

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    February 26, 2013
    * FTC Releases Top 10 Complaint Categories for 2012

    Identity Theft Tops List for 13th Consecutive Year in Report of National Consumer Complaints

  • "Identity theft is once more the top complaint received by the Federal Trade Commission, which has released its 2012 annual report of complaints. 2012 marks the first year in which the FTC received more than 2 million complaints overall, and 369,132, or 18 percent, were related to identity theft. Of those, more than 43 percent related to tax- or wage-related fraud. The report gives national data, as well as a state-by-state accounting of top complaint categories and a listing of the metropolitan areas that generated the most complaints. This includes the top 50 metropolitan areas for both fraud complaints and identity theft complaints."

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    • * Census Report Shows 30 Percent of Adults Receiving Government Assistance Have a Disability

    News release: "Among the 46.0 million adults who received income-based government assistance in 2011, 30.4 percent of them had a disability, according to a report released today from the U.S. Census Bureau. The report, Disability Characteristics of Income-Based Government Assistance Recipients in the United States: 2011, offers information about the occurrence of disabilities among people 18 and older who received income-based government assistance. The information is based on data from the 2011 American Community Survey... This report also found that 22 states had disability rates above the national estimate of 30.4 percent among those receiving assistance. In comparison, 15 states had rates below the national estimate. States west of the Appalachian Mountains had higher rates of disability among recipients of income-based assistance. In comparison, states in the Southwest and along the Eastern Seaboard had lower rates."

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    * Speech - Simplicity, risk sensitivity and comparability: the regulatory balancing act

    Simplicity, risk sensitivity and comparability: the regulatory balancing act (speech by Wayne Byres Secretary General Basel Committee on Banking Supervision) BCBS-EMEAP-FSI High-Level Meeting 25–26 February 2013, Seoul, Korea: "But as anyone knows who has built, supervised or just tried to understand internal risk models within a bank, they are not simple. They are, of course, a simplification of the real world, but that is not much of a consolation since the real world is extremely complex. The difficulty is that, if models are oversimplified, they do not produce risk measures that reflect reality. But if made too complex, hardly anyone can say whether they produce realistic risk measures or not! And by allowing a degree of flexibility for banks to model risks as they see them, we make it more difficult to achieve comparability. Getting it “just right” therefore requires careful judgement."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * New GAO Reports - Border Patrol, Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, Southwest Border Security, GAO and Sequestration
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    * An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy

    "The potential for using fusion energy to produce commercial electric power was first explored in the 1950s. Harnessing fusion energy offers the prospect of a nearly carbon-free energy source with a virtually unlimited supply of fuel. Unlike nuclear fission plants, appropriately designed fusion power plants would not produce the large amounts of high-level nuclear waste that requires long-term disposal. Due to these prospects, many nations have initiated research and development (R&D) programs aimed at developing fusion as an energy source. Two R&D approaches are being explored: magnetic fusion energy (MFE) and inertial fusion energy (IFE). An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy describes and assesses the current status of IFE research in the United States; compares the various technical approaches to IFE; and identifies the scientific and engineering challenges associated with developing inertial confinement fusion (ICF) in particular as an energy source. It also provides guidance on an R&D roadmap at the conceptual level for a national program focusing on the design and construction of an inertial fusion energy demonstration plant."

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    * International debt flows before and after the financial crisis

    International debt flows before and after the financial crisis by Evis Rucaj, 02-21-23

  • "New debt statistics show that the composition of long term debt inflows in 2011 follows pre-crisis patterns. Debt statistics are central to understanding the impact of the financial crisis; the World Bank's International Debt Statistics provides a detailed picture of debt flows of 128 developing countries. Now that the 2013 edition has been released, and as a member of the team that put it together, I thought I would look back at what the data tell us actually happened to international debt flows to developing countries before and after the recent financial crisis. The financial crisis reaffirmed the volatile life cycle of capital flows. In the early 2000s, as developing economies became more attractive for foreign investment, private capital debt flows surged rapidly into these economies, while official creditors maintained a slower pace. In 2007, private financial flows were dominant and represented 90 percent of long term debt inflows into the developing economies."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * The New Microfinance Handbook: A Financial Market System Perspective

    World Bank: "The New Microfinance Handbook provides a primer on financial services for the poor. It is written for a wide audience, including practitioners, facilitators, policy makers, regulators, investors, and donors working to improve the financial system, but who are relatively new to the sector. It will also be useful for telecommunication companies and other support service providers, students and academics, and consultants and trainers. Although this book is in part an update of the original handbook, the growth of the sector and the complexity of the financial market system have led to a perspective much broader than the previous 'financial and institutional perspective.' As a result, additional chapters have been added to address issues more relevant than when the original handbook was written. To reflect this complexity, the author invited a number of experts to write many of the new chapters. In addition, given that this book does not go into as much detail as the previous book did, a list of key resources at the end of each chapter provides readers additional information on specific topics. Finally, although the title still uses the term microfinance, the book very much addresses the wider financial ecosystem, moving beyond the traditional meaning of microfinance to inclusive financial systems."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * USA.gov - What is Sequestration?

    "Sequestration, sometimes called the sequester, is a process that automatically cuts the federal budget across most departments and agencies. Congress included the threat of sequestration in the Budget Control Act of 2011 as a way to encourage compromise on deficit reduction efforts. Congress couldn’t agree on a budget by the deadline set in the Budget Control Act, so mandatory budget cuts were scheduled to go into effect on January 2, 2013. Congress stopped the cuts from happening by passing the American Taxpayer Relief Act on January 2. This law pushed the budget cuts back until March 1, 2013. If Congress cannot agree on a budget to reduce the deficit by March 1, then sequestration would happen and $85 billion in spending cuts would go into effect. These reports give detailed information about the amount that programs may be cut and which programs are exempt from sequestration:

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    February 25, 2013
    * BIS - Benign neglect of the long-term interest rate

    Benign neglect of the long-term interest rate, by Philip Turner, Working Papers No 403, February 2013

  • "Large-scale central bank purchases of government bonds have made the long-term interest rate key in the monetary policy debate. How central banks react to bond market movements has varied greatly from one episode to another. Driving the term premium in long-term rates negative may stimulate aggregate demand. And a negative term premium encourages borrowers to lengthen the maturity of their debts. Such a reduction in maturity risks makes the financial system more resilient to shocks, and in particular can help emerging economies finance their heavy infrastructure and housing investment needs more safely. But an extended period of very low long rates and high public debt creates financial stability risks. Interest rate risk in the banking system has grown, and some institutional investors face significant exposures. Central banks in the advanced economies now hold a high proportion of bonds issued by their governments, most of which have so far failed to arrest the rise in the ratio of government debt to GDP. Implementing an effective exit strategy will be difficult. Current policy frameworks should be reconsidered, with a view to clarifying the importance of the long-term interest rate for monetary policy, for financial stability and for government debt management."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * NY Fed - The Macroeconomic Effects of Forward Guidance

    The Macroeconomic Effects of Forward Guidance - Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, and Christina Patterson: "In this post, we quantify the macroeconomic effects of central bank announcements about future federal funds rates, or forward guidance. We estimate that a commitment to lowering future rates below market expectations can have fairly strong effects on real economic activity with only small effects on inflation."

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    * New NOAA study estimates future loss of labor capacity as climate warms

    News release: "A new NOAA study projects that heat-stress related labor capacity losses will double globally by 2050 with a warming climate. The impact will be felt the most by those who work outside or in hot environments, such as firefighters, bakery workers, farmers, construction workers, factory workers, and others who will be forced to slow down due to increases in heat and humidity. This will be particularly apparent in mid-latitude and tropical regions, which include South and East Asia, North America, and Australia. The research, published online today in Nature Climate Change, uses existing occupational health and safety thresholds to establish a new metric to quantify a healthy, acclimated individual’s capacity to safely perform sustained labor under environmental heat stress. Heat stress can result in heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heat cramps, and can also increase the risk of injuries. Age, obesity, and medical conditions such as heart disease or high blood pressure can also put workers at greater risk of heat stress."

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    * New GAO Report: Defense Contracting, Iran's Energy and Communications Sectors, Iran, Water Quality
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    * Multilateral Development Banks: U.S. Contributions FY2000-FY2013

    CRS - Multilateral Development Banks: U.S. Contributions FY2000-FY2013, Rebecca M. Nelson. Analyst in International Trade and Finance. February 1, 2013

  • "This report shows in tabular form how much the Administration requested and how much Congress appropriated for U.S. payments to the multilateral development banks (MDBs) since 2000. It also provides a brief description of the MDBs and the ways they fund their operations. It will be updated periodically as annual appropriation figures are known. The title of this report will also change annually, as new yearly appropriation figures are added. For FY2013, the Administration has requested funds for several of the non-concessional lending facilities at the MDBs. Several of the MDBs are in the process of increasing the size of their nonconcessional lending facilities, a process frequently called a “general capital increase” (GCI). GCIs are relatively unusual, particularly for so many institutions at the same time. Contributions to the GCIs are expected to be spread out over a five- to eight-year period, depending on the institution. For most of the institutions, the funds appropriated in FY2012 were the first annual payment. In addition to funds for the GCIs, the Administration has requested for FY2013 funds for several MDB concessional lending facilities and more targeted MDB funds, such as those dedicated to environmental issues. The total Administration’s request for the MDBs is smaller than its requests in FY2011 and FY2012."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * CFPB - Request for Information Regarding an Initiative to Promote Student Loan Affordability

    CFPB - "There are more than 38 million student loan borrowers with over $1.1 trillion in outstanding debt. The majority of the market consists of loans originated under Title IV of the Higher Education Act. The remainder of the market consists of private student loans. In July 2012, the Director of the Bureau and the Secretary of Education submitted a report to Congress detailing the private student loan market. The report found that, as of the end of 2011, there were more than $8 billion in defaulted private student loan balances, with even more in delinquency. Federal student loans frequently provide for income-based repayment options for borrowers with partial financial hardship, as well as rehabilitation options for borrowers in default. In general, private student loans do not offer similar modified repayment options...this request seeks information on options to increase the level of affordable repayment options for both pre-default and post-default borrowers in distress who wish to repay their loans but may be lacking near-term ability to service their obligations."

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    * White House - The state-by-state reports show the impact the sequester will have on jobs and middle class families across the country

    White House fact sheets: State-by-state effects of the sequester on jobs and middle-class families.

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    February 24, 2013
    * BLS - Gold prices during and after the Great Recession

    Brian Hergt, Producer Price Index Program: "Gold, a highly valuable precious metal, has many practical uses that span multiple industries. Historically, one of the primary uses of gold has been to make ornamental objects, such as jewelry. Malleability is one of gold’s special properties, allowing it to be hammered into sheets, drawn into wires, and cast into different shapes. In addition to jewelry, gold is used to manufacture many products that we use in our everyday lives, especially electronics. This is because gold is an efficient conductor of electricity, and electronic components made with gold tend to be very reliable. Televisions, cell phones, calculators, Global Positioning System (GPS) devices, and computers are examples of products produced with small amounts of gold. Gold is widely used in other areas, as well, such as the medical, aerospace, and glassmaking industries."

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    * English Housing Survey Headline Report 2011-12

    English Housing Survey Headline Report 2011-12, February 2013. Department for Communities and Local Government

  • "The report is split into two sections. The first focuses on the profile of households including: trends in tenures; demographic and economic characteristics of households; rents and housing benefit; recent movers; mortgage difficulties; and overcrowding and under-occupation. Section 2 provides an overview of the housing stock in England including: the age, size, and type of home; energy efficiency of the housing stock; decent homes; and homes affected by damp and mould. Additional annex tables provide further detail to that covered in the main body of the report."

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    * Pew - How Borrowers Choose and Repay Payday Loans

    "For someone in need of quick cash, a payday loan can look like a way to avoid asking loved ones for help or getting into long-term debt. But these loans usually prove unaffordable, leaving borrowers in debt for an average of five months. This report — the second in Pew’s Payday Lending in America series — answers questions about why borrowers choose payday loans, how they ultimately repay the loans, and how they feel about their experiences."

  • See also New York Times - Major Banks Aid in Payday Loans Banned by States, and related postings on the financial system

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    * Social Explorer's Andrew Beveridge in the NY Times on Trends in NYC’s Child Population

    Sydney Beveridge: "Things move fast in New York, unless you’re trying to sign your kid up for something. In the New York Times article Born to Wait: For Parents, a Waiting List for Nearly Everything, Soni Sangha explores the increase in over-filled classes and long waiting lists for children’s programs. The story includes data and analysis from Social Explorer’s Andrew Beveridge. If waiting in line in the predawn of a January morning for science camp registration sounds crazy, you do not have a New York City child born after 2004. For those children and their parents, especially in the neighborhoods of brownstone Brooklyn, Lower Manhattan and the Upper West Side, not getting into activities, classes, sports teams — and even local schools — has become a way of life. If every generation must have its own designation, call theirs Generation Waiting List…Sangha goes on to cite Beveridge and include a map highlighting the growth of the youth population in different pockets of the city. At first blush, the waiting lists are a little surprising, given that in the city there were 7 percent fewer children 9 and younger in 2011 than there were in 2000, according to census findings. Indeed, every borough has seen a decrease in children in that age range. But the distribution of children is highly uneven, and some neighborhoods, especially those deemed “family friendly,” have seen population explosions that outpace the general population growth, according to an analysis of census data by Andrew A. Beveridge, a sociologist at Queens College."

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    * Illness-related work absences in January 2013 highest since February 2008

    Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Editor's Desk: "Absences resulting from a worker’s own illness or injury were higher in January 2013 than in any month since February 2008. In January 2013, nearly 2.9 million people who usually work full time worked part time during the survey reference week because of their own illness, injury, or medical appointment. Another 1.2 million employed people did not work at all during the survey reference week because of illness or injury."

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    * Increasing Access to the Results of Federally Funded Scientific Research

    "The Obama Administration is committed to the proposition that citizens deserve easy access to the results of scientific research their tax dollars have paid for. That’s why, in a policy memorandum released today, OSTP Director John Holdren has directed Federal agencies with more than $100M in R&D expenditures to develop plans to make the published results of federally funded research freely available to the public within one year of publication and requiring researchers to better account for and manage the digital data resulting from federally funded scientific research. OSTP has been looking into this issue for some time, soliciting broad public input on multiple occasions and convening an interagency working group to develop a policy. The final policy reflects substantial inputs from scientists and scientific organizations, publishers, members of Congress, and other members of the public—over 65 thousand of whom recently signed a We the People petition asking for expanded public access to the results of taxpayer-funded research." The new policy memorandum is here.

  • ARL Commends Obama Administration for Historic Action Opening up Access to Federally Funded Research

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    February 23, 2013
    * Administration Strategy on Mitigating the Theft of U.S. Trade Secrets

    Administration Strategy on Mitigating the Theft of U.S. Trade Secrets, February 2013: "The Administration will utilize trade policy tools to increase international enforcement against trade secret theft to minimize unfair competition against U.S. companies. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will make additional efforts to promote adequate and effective protection and enforcement of trade secrets. These Administration efforts will include:

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    * GAO's 2013 High Risk List

    High Risk List: "Every two years at the start of a new Congress, GAO calls attention to agencies and program areas that are high risk due to their vulnerabilities to fraud, waste, abuse, and mismanagement, or are most in need of transformation. This site presents GAO's current High Risk List [comprising 30 areas], explains what has changed since the last update, and provides background information and related multimedia.

  • View the 2013 Report: "The federal government is the world’s largest and most complex entity, with about $3.5 trillion in outlays in fiscal year 2012 funding a broad array of programs and operations. GAO maintains a program to focus attention on government operations that it identifies as high risk due to their greater vulnerabilities to fraud, waste, abuse, and mismanagement or the need for transformation to address economy, efficiency, or effectiveness challenges. Since 1990, more than one-third of the areas previously designated as high risk have been removed from the list because sufficient progress was made to address the problems identified. This biennial update describes the status of high-risk areas listed in 2011 and identifies any new high-risk area needing attention by Congress and the executive branch. Solutions to high-risk problems offer the potential to save billions of dollars, improve service to the public, and strengthen the performance and accountability of the U.S. government."

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    * Unauthorized Aliens: Policy Options for Providing Targeted Immigration Relief

    CRS - Unauthorized Aliens: Policy Options for Providing Targeted Immigration Relief, Andorra Bruno, Specialist in Immigration Policy, February 13, 2013

  • "The 113th Congress is expected to consider comprehensive immigration reform legislation. If and when it does, a key challenge will be how to address the unauthorized alien population, estimated to number some 11 million. The unauthorized alien population is often treated as if it were monolithic, but it is, in fact, quite diverse. It includes individuals who entered the United States in different ways, for different reasons, and who have different types of connections to the United States. The circumstances of individuals who compose the unauthorized alien population affect their treatment under immigration law, especially with respect to prospects for obtaining legal status in the United States. Relevant immigration status-related factors include mode of entry into the United States, length of unlawful presence in the country, and the existence of family or employment connections."

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    * Commentary - The Saga of Barrett Brown: Inside Anonymous and the War on Secrecy

    The Saga of Barrett Brown: Inside Anonymous and the War on Secrecy, By Christian Stork, February 21, 2013

  • "Alleged “hacktivist” Barrett Brown, the 31-year old mislabeled “spokesman” for the shadowy hacker collective known as Anonymous, faces federal charges that could put him away for over a hundred years...His crime: making leaked e-mails accessible to the public—documents that shine a light on the shadowy world of intelligence contracting in the post-9/11 era. A critically acclaimed author and provocative journalist, Brown cannot be too easily dismissed as some unruly malcontent typing away in the back of a gritty espresso lounge. He is eccentric. And he was clearly high on something, if only his own hubris, when he made a threatening video that put him in the feds’ crosshairs. But that’s not the real reason for the government’s overreaction. Evidence indicates it has a lot more to do with sending a message to the community he comes from, which the government sees—correctly—as a threat."

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    • February 22, 2013
    * Moody's downgrades UK's government bond rating to Aa1 from Aaa; outlook is now stable

    "London, 22 February 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the domestic - and foreign-currency government bond ratings of the United Kingdom by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa. The outlook on the ratings is now stable. The key interrelated drivers of today's action are:

    1. The continuing weakness in the UK's medium-term growth outlook, with a period of sluggish growth which Moody's now expects will extend into the second half of the decade;
    2. The challenges that subdued medium-term growth prospects pose to the government's fiscal consolidation programme, which will now extend well into the next parliament;
    3. And, as a consequence of the UK's high and rising debt burden, a deterioration in the shock-absorption capacity of the government's balance sheet, which is unlikely to reverse before 2016."

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    * The Center for Legislative Archives

    "The history of the U.S. Congress is documented in the official records of Congress, the private and personal papers of members of Congress, and many other sources. Official records and some personal papers are located in the National Archives at the Center for Legislative Archives, but most personal papers are geographically dispersed in repositories around the country. The best printed sources for locating congressional papers are:

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    * Unemployment Insurance: Legislative Issues in the 113th Congress

    Unemployment Insurance: Legislative Issues in the 113th Congress, January 25, 2013

  • "The 113th Congress may face a number of issues related to currently available unemployment insurance programs: Unemployment Compensation (UC), temporary Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08), and Extended Benefits (EB). With the national unemployment rate decreasing but still high, the weekly demand for regular and extended unemployment benefits continues at high levels. Congress deliberated multiple times on whether to extend the authorization for several key temporary unemployment insurance provisions in the 112th Congress and may do so again in the 113th Congress. The signing of P.L. 112-240 on January 2, 2013, now means that the EUC08 program expires the week ending on or before January 1, 2014. The 100% federal financing of the EB program expires on December 31, 2013. In addition, the option for states to use three-year EB trigger lookbacks (the period of time considered in determining an active EB program within a state) expires the week ending on or before December 31, 2013."

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    * Speech by Governor Tarullo on international cooperation in financial regulation

    Governor Daniel K. Tarullo At the Cornell International Law Journal Symposium: The Changing Politics of Central Banks, New York, New York - February 22, 2013 - International Cooperation in Financial Regulation

  • Next month marks the fifth anniversary of the failure of Bear Stearns--in retrospect, the beginning of the most acute phase of the financial crisis. The cross-border dimensions of the crisis itself and the global effects of the Great Recession that followed provoked a major effort to strengthen international cooperation in financial regulation. While a good deal has already been accomplished, this evening I will suggest the next steps that would be most useful in advancing global financial stability. Of course, the fashioning of an international agenda requires a clear understanding of the overall regulatory aims of participating national authorities. Here is where international regulatory cooperation links to the subject of this conference--if not quite the changing politics of central banks, then at least their changing policy goals in the wake of the financial crisis. Almost by definition, systemic crises reveal failures across the financial system, from breakdowns in risk management at many financial firms to serious deficiencies in government regulation of financial institutions and markets. While the recent crisis was no exception, it has presented particular challenges to the policy foundations of central banks, especially those like the Federal Reserve that carry out regulatory mandates alongside their monetary policy missions."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 29-30, 2013

    "The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on January 29-30, 2013. The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes are based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting. FOMC minutes can be viewed on the Board's website. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 29-30, 2013"

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    February 21, 2013
    * Open States: Legislative Data Across All 50 States

    Amy Ngai, Sunlight Foundation: "Do you ever find yourself looking up state legislative information? Instead of hopping from one legislative website to the next, Open States allows you to search and explore legislative data from all 50 states, D.C. and Puerto Rico -- from a single site. The free tool also lets you identify your state legislator, review their votes, track bills and discover upcoming events at your state house."

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    * HSBC: Future of Retirement - A new reality - Global Report

    The Future of Retirement - A new reality - Global Report: "This report reveals that saving and investing for retirement is a major challenge for most people. The economic downturn is putting added pressure on household incomes, and as a result, many people admit that financially they are not preparing adequately, or at all, for a comfortable retirement...In order to sustain a comfortable standard of living in retirement, people say they would need 78% of current income; this is far higher than is likely to be achieved. For example, the median annual household income required for a comfortable retirement is $34,380 (global median), which would require a US male to have $505,000 in retirement savings, based on a retirement age of 65. Actual savings behaviour falls well short of this. Currently, 48% of respondents across the 15 countries have never saved towards their retirement, with more non-savers in high-income countries such as the UK, France, Canada and Australia. Meanwhile, nearly one-third (32%) of respondents expect to rely on the state for their main source of retirement income. Over half (56%) acknowledge that they are not preparing adequately to achieve a comfortable retirement. Too much life, not enough money People on average expect their retirement to last for 18 years, but their retirement savings to last for only 10 years, running out just over half way through retirement. The second half of retirement often coincides with the point at which health and long-term care costs increase, posing major questions over how people will cope with the additional costs of ‘frail’ retirement. The impact of retirement income shortfalls are not limited purely to one’s finances: for example, 43% of Canadians thought that this shortfall could potentially impact their health, while 62% of Britons thought that they might struggle to pay for food and energy bills..."

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    * New GAO Reports: FDIC Financial Audit, Data Sharing While Protecting Privacy
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    * Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output

    Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from October 2012 Through December 2012, February 21, 2013

  • "In total, CBO estimates that ARRA will increase budget deficits by about $830 billion over the 2009–2019 period. By CBO’s estimate, close to half of that impact occurred in fiscal year 2010, and more than 90 percent of ARRA’s budgetary impact was realized by the end of December 2012. The effects of ARRA on output peaked in the first half of 2010 and have since diminished, CBO estimates. The effects of ARRA on employment are estimated to lag slightly behind the effects on output; CBO estimates that the employment effects began to wane at the end of 2010 and continued to do so through the fourth quarter of 2012."
  • See also How Have CBO’s Projections of Spending for Medicare and Medicaid Changed Since the August 2012 Baseline?

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    * Health care law allows consumers to easily find and compare options starting in 2014

    News release: "Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Kathleen Sebelius today announced a final rule that will make purchasing health coverage easier for consumers. The policies outlined today will give consumers a consistent way to compare and enroll in health coverage in the individual and small group markets, while giving states and insurers more flexibility and freedom to implement the Affordable Care Act. Today’s rule outlines health insurance issuer standards for a core package of benefits, called essential health benefits, that health insurance issuers must cover both inside and outside the Health Insurance Marketplace. Through its standards for essential health benefits, the final rule released today also expands coverage of mental health and substance use disorder services, including behavioral health treatment, for millions of Americans. A new report by HHS, also released today, details how these provisions will expand mental health and substance use disorder benefits and federal parity protections for 62 million more Americans."

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    * First-Term Members of the House of Representatives and Senate, 64th – 113th Congresses

    CRS: First-Term Members of the House of Representatives and Senate, 64th – 113th Congresses, January 25, 2013

  • "This report provides summary data on the number of Senators and Members of the House of Representatives who first entered Congress between the 64th Congress (1915-1917) and the 113th Congress (2013-2014). First-term membership is divided into two broad categories in each chamber: Members chosen prior to the convening of a Congress, and those chosen after a Congress convenes. The resulting data, combining pre-convening and post-convening first-term Members, provide a count of all Members who served a first term in the House or Senate. Since the convening of the 64th Congress, 4,126 individuals have entered the House of Representatives for their first, or “freshman,” terms as Representatives. An additional 26 have begun service as Delegates or Resident Commissioners. During the same period, 825 individuals began their first terms in the Senate."

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    • * CDC - Invasive Cancer Incidence - United States, 2009

    Invasive Cancer Incidence — United States, 2009. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR, February 22, 2013 / 62(07);113-118

  • "Cancer is a leading cause of illness and death in the United States, and many cancers are preventable (1). Surveillance of cancer incidence can help public health officials target areas for cancer control efforts (2) and track progress toward the national cancer objectives set forth in Healthy People 2020 (3). This report summarizes the most recent invasive cancer incidence rates by sex, age, race, ethnicity, primary site, and state of residence using data from U.S. Cancer Statistics (USCS) for 2009. USCS includes incidence data from CDC's National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) and the National Cancer Institute's (NCI's) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System (4). In 2009, a total of 1,476,504 invasive cancers were diagnosed in the United States, an annual incidence rate of 459 cases per 100,000 persons. Cancer incidence rates were higher among men (524) than women (414), highest among blacks (473) and lowest among American Indian/Alaska Natives (273), and ranged by state from 387 to 509. Populations defined by state of residence, race, or ethnicity with high rates of cancer might benefit most from targeted cancer prevention and control efforts."

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    * Report - Declining value of the federal minimum wage is a major factor driving inequality

    Lawrence Mishel | February 21, 2013: "Contrary to some political rhetoric of late, wage stagnation for American workers and rising inequality is not due to lack of effort; the broad middle class has increased its productivity, upgraded its educational attainment, and worked more hours (Mishel 2013). Rather it is due to certain policies that have weakened the bargaining position of low- and middle-wage workers. Among these policies is the refusal to set the minimum wage at a level where it establishes a well-enforced wage floor at 50 percent of the average wage. This paper reviews the history of the minimum wage over the last 50 years and the role of a lowered value of the minimum wage in rising wage inequality."

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    * TIME Magazine Investigative Report - Bitter Pill: Why Medical Bills Are Killing Us

    Bitter Pill: Why Medical Bills Are Killing Us, by Steven Bril, Feb. 20, 2013

  • "We’re likely to spend $2.8 trillion this year on health care. That $2.8 trillion is likely to be $750 billion, or 27%, more than we would spend if we spent the same per capita as other developed countries, even after adjusting for the relatively high per capita income in the U.S. vs. those other countries. Of the total $2.8 trillion that will be spent on health care, about $800 billion will be paid by the federal government through the Medicare insurance program for the disabled and those 65 and older and the Medicaid program, which provides care for the poor. That $800 billion, which keeps rising far faster than inflation and the gross domestic product, is what’s driving the federal deficit. The other $2 trillion will be paid mostly by private health-insurance companies and individuals who have no insurance or who will pay some portion of the bills covered by their insurance. This is what’s increasingly burdening businesses that pay for their employees’ health insurance and forcing individuals to pay so much in out-of-pocket expenses."

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    February 20, 2013
    * Oceana Study Uncovers Widespread Seafood Fraud Nationwide

    33% of Seafood Mislabeled in Grocery Stores, Restaurants & Sushi Venues, February 21, 2013

  • "Oceana, the largest international advocacy group working solely to protect the world’s oceans, uncovered widespread seafood fraud across the United States, according to a new report released today. In one of the largest seafood fraud investigations in the world to date, DNA testing confirmed that one-third, or 33 percent, of the 1,215 fish samples collected by Oceana from 674 retail outlets in 21 states were mislabeled, according to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines...Oceana found seafood fraud everywhere it tested, including mislabeling rates of 52 percent in Southern California, 49 percent in Austin and Houston, 48 percent in Boston (including testing by The Boston Globe), 39 percent in New York City, 38 percent in Northern California and South Florida, 36 percent in Denver, 35 percent in Kansas City (MO/KS), 32 percent in Chicago, 26 percent in Washington, D.C., 21 percent in Portland (OR) and 18 percent in Seattle."

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    • * New GAO Reports: Physical Federal Facility Security, Census Bureau IT
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    * Financial Crisis - A Review of the Economics and Legal Toolbox

    Financial Crisis A Review of the Economics and Legal Toolbox by Yan Liu; Christoph Rosenberg, February 20, 2013

  • "The private non-financial sector in Europe is facing increased challenges in meeting its debt servicing obligation. In response, governments are revisiting legal tools and—in some cases—institutional arrangements to deal with over-indebtedness. For households, where the problem in some countries is large but no established best practice exists, reforms have generally sought to allow debtors a fresh start while minimizing moral hazard and preserving bank solvency and credit discipline. For the corporate sector, efforts have focused on facilitating debt restruturing (including through out of court mechanisms). Direct government intervention has been rare."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Working Paper: Other Vacant Housing Units: 2000, 2005, and 2010

    "This working paper examines the characteristics of vacant units categorized as being vacant for "other" reasons (which means they do not fit into the "for rent," "for sale," "rented or sold but not yet occupied," "occasional use" or "usual residence elsewhere" categories). The statistics were collected in the Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey in 2000, 2005 and 2010 and show how these characteristics have changed in each region and the nation as a whole during that time. Common reasons a housing unit is labeled "other" vacant is that no one lives in the unit and the owner is making repairs or renovations, does not want to rent or sell, is using the unit for storage or is elderly and living in a nursing home or with family members. Characteristics examined include number of rooms and bedrooms, units in structure and year structure built."

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    * Census - 2012 Housing Vacancy Survey Annual Statistics

    "These statistics provide vacancy rates, homeownership rates and characteristics of units available for occupancy for the U.S., regions, states and the 75 largest metropolitan statistical areas. Data for all geographies are available both quarterly and annually. Homeownership rates are also tabulated by age of householder for the U.S. and regions and by race and ethnicity of householder, by family status and by median family income for the U.S. In addition, estimates of the total housing inventory and percent distributions of vacant for-rent and for-sale-only units are available for the U.S. and regions. This information is used by public and private sector organizations to evaluate the need for new housing programs and initiatives. The rental vacancy rate is a component of the index of leading economic indicators and thereby used by the government and economic forecasters to gauge the economic climate."

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    * CRS - Federal Reserve: Unconventional Monetary Policy Options

    Federal Reserve: Unconventional Monetary Policy Options, Marc Labonte
    Coordinator of Division Research and Specialist, February 19, 2013

  • "The “Great Recession” and the ensuing weak recovery have led the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reevaluate its monetary policy strategy. Since December 2008, overnight interest rates have been near zero; at this “zero bound,” they cannot be lowered further to stimulate the economy. As a result, the Fed has taken unprecedented policy steps to try to fulfill its statutory mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Congress has oversight responsibilities for ensuring that the Fed’s actions are consistent with its mandate. The Fed has made large-scale asset purchases, popularly referred to as “quantitative easing” (“QE”), that have increased its balance sheet from $0.9 trillion in 2007 to $2.9 trillion at the end of 2012. Currently, the Fed is purchasing $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and $45 billion of Treasury securities each month; because these purchases follow on two previous rounds of purchases, they have been referred to as “quantitative easing three” or “QEIII.” Unlike the previous rounds, the Fed has not announced when QEIII will end or its ultimate size. The Fed views QE as stimulating the economy primarily through lower long-term interest rates, which stimulate spending on business investment, residential investment, and consumer durables. Since QE began, Treasury yields and mortgage rates have reached their lowest levels in decades; it is less clear how much QE has affected private-borrowing rates and interest-sensitive spending. Critics fear QE’s potentially inflationary effects, via growth in the monetary base. Inflation has remained low to date, but QE is unprecedented in the United States and the Fed’s mooted “exit strategy” for unwinding QE is untested, so the Fed’s ability to successfully maintain stable prices while unwinding QE cannot be guaranteed."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    February 19, 2013
    * New GAO Reports: DHS, Pipeline Permitting, GAO Mission and Operations, Unmanned Aircraft Systems
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    * New Simpson Bowles Plan Would Cut Deficits by $2.4 Trillion

    Via ABA: "Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, former heads of the debt commission, announced a new deficit reduction plan Tuesday. The deal, which would cut the deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next 10-years, is an attempt to find a middle ground between Democrats and Republicans. House Republicans have set a $4 trillion target for deficit reduction, while the White House has set a more modest $1.5 trillion goal...."There is no perfect solution to our fiscal problems. However, we believe strongly and sincerely that an agreement on a comprehensive plan to bring our debt under control is possible if both sides are able to put their sacred cows on the table in the spirit of principled compromise. We understand that there will be disagreements among policymakers and experts about the exact approach and specific policies necessary to achieve deficit reduction, and we welcome their commentary. In our view, a reasonable debt reduction plan should at least do the following..."

  • See also ABA Publishes 2013 Key Banking Issues Guide

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    * Capitalizing on the Evolving Power Sector: Policies for a Modern and Reliable U.S. Electric Grid

    "The U.S. electric power sector faces a significant transition over the next decade, with implications for the cost, reliability, and environmental impacts of the electricity supply. Specifically, economic trends and state and federal energy and environmental policies will continue to increase the share of natural gas and renewable energy in the generation mix. This ongoing shift provides an important opportunity to consider policies and institutional structures that help the electric grid adapt to changes in market conditions, policy, and technology in ways that enhance system reliability and maintain affordability. This report provides findings and recommendations from the Bipartisan Policy Center’s (BPC) Electric Grid Initiative, a year-long effort to develop policy recommendations that enhance the efficiency and reliability of the U.S. electric grid."

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    * Treasury and Federal Reserve Foreign Exchange Operations, October–December 2012

    U.S. Monetary Authorities Did Not Intervene in FX Markets During the Fourth Quarter: "During the fourth quarter, the U.S. dollar’s nominal trade-weighted exchange value increased 1.0 percent as measured by the Federal Reserve Board’s major currencies index. Th e dollar appreciated 11.3 percent against the Japanese yen and depreciated 2.5 percent against the euro, though it remained relatively little changed against most other major currencies over the period. The dollar’s notable appreciation against the yen occurred amid expectations of greater fiscal and monetary accommodation resulting from a change in political leadership in Japan. The U.S. monetary authorities did not intervene in the foreign exchange markets during the quarter."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Margin requirements for non-centrally cleared derivatives - Second consultative document

    Margin requirements for non-centrally cleared derivatives - Second Consultative Document, February 2013

  • "The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) have today published a second consultative paper which represents a near-final proposal on margin requirements for non-centrally-cleared derivatives. Several features of the near-final proposal are intended to manage the liquidity impact of the margin requirements on financial market participants. The proposed requirements would allow for the introduction of a universal initial margin threshold of €50 million. The results of a quantitative impact study (QIS) conducted in 2012 indicate that application of the threshold could reduce the total liquidity costs by 56% relative to a margining framework with a zero initial margin threshold, which was initially proposed in the July 2012 first consultative paper. Today's proposal also envisages a gradual phase-in to provide market participants with sufficient time to adjust to the requirements. The requirement to collect and post initial margin on non-centrally cleared trades is proposed to be phased in over a four year period beginning 2015 and begin with the largest, most active and most systemically risky derivative market participants."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Key drivers for EIA’s short‐term U.S. crude oil production outlook

    "Crude oil production increased by 790,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) between 2011 and 2012, the largest increase in annual output since the beginning of U.S. commercial crude oil production in 1859. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. crude oil production to continue rising over the next two years represented in the Short‐Term Energy Outlook (STEO). U.S. crude oil output is forecast to rise 815,000 bbl/d this year to 7.25 million barrels per day, according to the February 2013 STEO. U.S. daily oil production is expected to rise by another 570,000 bbl/d in 2014 to 7.82 million barrels per day, the highest annual average level since 1988. Most of the U.S. production growth over the next two years will come from drilling in tight rock formations located in North Dakota and Texas. This paper explains the underpinnings of EIA’s short‐term forecast for crude oil production."

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    * Dept. of Energy IG - Management of the Award of a $150 Million Recovery Act Grant to LG Chem Michigan Inc.

    OIG Special Report: "The Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Program was established to develop and deploy efficient and environmentally friendly highway transportation technologies to reduce the Nation's dependence on foreign oil and provide greater energy security. The Vehicle Technologies Program received $2.4 billion under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act) for these purposes. In February 2010, LG Chem Michigan Inc. (LG Chem Michigan), formerly Compact Power, Inc., was awarded more than $150 million in Recovery Act funding to help construct a $304 million battery cell manufacturing plant in Holland, Michigan. On October 24, 2012, a complaint was received that LG Chem Michigan misused Recovry Act funds. The review confirmed the allegations. Specifically, LG Chem Michigan inappropriately claimed and was reimbursed for labor charges incurred by a variety of supervisory and staff employees for activities that did not benefit the project. As a result, up to about $842,000 in reimbursements for labor charges were questioned. Also, work performed under the grant to LG Chem Michigan had not been managed effectively. Based on progress to date and despite the expenditures of $142 million in Recovery Act funds, LG Chem Michigan had not yet achieved the objectives outlined in its Department-approved project plan. For instance, even though the facility had produced a large number of test cells, the plant had yet to manufacture battery cells that could be used in electric vehicles sold to the public. The problems identified occurred, in large part, due to grant monitoring issues with LG Chem Michigan and the Department. In response, the Department concurred with the recommendations and indicated that corrective action had been taken and/or has been initiated to address the issues identified."

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    February 18, 2013
    * UN - Report of the independent international commission of inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic

    UN General Assembly - Report of the independent international commission of inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, 5 February 2013

  • "The depth of the Syrian tragedy is poignantly reflected in the accounts of its victims. Their harrowing experiences of survival detail grave human rights violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity. The destructive dynamics of the civil war not only have an impact on the civilian population but are also tearing apart the country’s complex social fabric, jeopardizing future generations and undermining peace and security in the entire region. The situation of human rights in the Syrian Arab Republic has continued to deteriorate. Since 15 July 2012, there has been an escalation in the armed conflict between Government forces and anti-Government armed groups. The conflict has become increasingly sectarian, with the conduct of the parties becoming significantly more radicalized and militarized...Both Government-affiliated militia and anti-Government armed groups were found
    to have violated the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on the involvement of children in armed conflict, to which the Syrian Arab Republic is a party. Government-affiliated militia used children under the age of 18 in direct hostilities. Children under the age of 15 actively participated in hostilities as part of anti-Government armed groups, conduct that constitutes the war crime of using, conscripting and enlisting children."

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    • * Kaiser Report - Medigap: Spotlight on Enrollment, Premiums and Recent Trends

    "Nearly one in four people with Medicare have private Medicare supplemental insurance plans, known as "Medigap" plans that help with health care expenses not otherwise covered by Medicare. This analysis provides a detailed look at the Medigap market, including national and state trends in enrollment and premiums for the various Medigap plans. Though Medigap policies by law must offer a set of standardized benefits, the analysis finds that monthly premiums for identical plans vary greatly both across the country and within states. Also, more than half of all Medigap enrollees in 2010 were in plans that cover Medicare's entire Part A and B deductibles, according to this analysis. These enrollees could potentially be affected by policy changes to discourage or prohibit "first dollar" Medigap coverage, as proposed in some of the recent debt-reduction recommendations. The report is authored by researchers at the Kaiser Family Foundation and the University of California at Los Angeles."

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    * Moody's: 2013 outlook for entire US Higher Education sector changed to negative

    News release: "The 2013 outlook for the entire US higher education sector is negative, including the market-leading, research-driven colleges and universities, says Moody's Investors Service in its annual industry outlook. Previously Moody's had a stable outlook for these leading institutions and a negative outlook for the rest of the sector since 2009. Moody's perceives mounting fiscal pressure on all key university revenue sources. "The US higher education sector has hit a critical juncture in the evolution of its business model," says Eva Bogaty, the Moody's Assistant Vice President -- Analyst who is the lead author on the report US Higher Education Outlook Negative in 2013. "Even market-leading universities with diversified revenue streams are facing diminished prospects for revenue growth." The rating agency says that most universities will have to lower their cost structures to achieve long-term financial sustainability and fund future initiatives. Universities have been restraining costs in response to the weak economic conditions since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, but they have only recently begun examining the cost structure of their traditional business model."

  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * Medicare, Medicaid, and Other Health Provisions in the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012

    CRS - Medicare, Medicaid, and Other Health Provisions in the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012. January 31, 2013

  • "Several policies that would have reduced spending and increased revenues were poised to take effect at the end of 2012; collectively, these were referred to by some as the “fiscal cliff.” Had these policies taken effect, CBO projected that the ensuing fiscal contraction would have resulted in a recession in 2013. On January 2, 2013, the President signed H.R. 8, the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (ATRA, P.L. 112-240), which prevented most—but not all—of the fiscal cliff policies from going into effect. This Act was passed by the Senate on January 1, 2013 by a vote of 89-8, and by the House later that day, 257-167. Title VI of the Act extends several expiring provisions in the Medicare and Medicaid programs and makes other changes in federally funded health programs."

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    February 17, 2013
    * New American Foundation Report - The Year of the Drone

    The Year of the Drone - An Analysis of U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan, 2004-2013: "The purpose of this database is to provide as much information as possible about the covert U.S. drone program in Pakistan..This data was collected from credible news reports and is presented here with the relevant sources. You can read more about our methodology here." See also related postings on drones.

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    * The Economist - The World in 2013

    Via The Scout Report: "Each year, this publication publishes a guide to the trends and quandaries that will consume the attention of policy-makers, politicians, concerned citizens, and others across the globe. The materials here include political analyses, technology reports, and commentaries on culture. The pieces here are divided into sections that include Leaders, Britain, Europe, Asia, China, and numerous others. Visitors can look through each area for commentaries with titles like "Pakistan and Bangladesh make history," "Manufacturing the future," and "Vermeer via Bowie." The Latest Blog Posts area contains updates on everything from tea in Sierra Leone to the political milieu of the Czech Republic. Additionally, visitors shouldn't miss the Multimedia area for up-to-date reports on these topics."

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    * Milliman analysis: Interest rate improvement powers $106 billion pension funding improvement in January

    News release: "Milliman, Inc., a premier global consulting and actuarial firm, released the results of its latest Pension Funding Index, which consists of 100 of the nation’s largest corporate defined benefit pension plans. In January, these pensions experienced a $106 billion improvement in funded status based on an $83 billion decrease in the pension benefit obligation (PBO) and a $23 billion increase in assets. The $106 billion advancement in January completely reverses a $74 billion deficit increase over the course of 2012 and sets off these 100 plans on a strong start in 2013."

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    * Patterns of homeownership, delinquency, and foreclosure among youngest baby boomers

    Patterns of homeownership, delinquency, and foreclosure among youngest baby boomers, By Alison Aughinbaugh

  • "The recent decline in the housing market was preceded by strong growth for over a decade. From the fourth quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2005, homeownership rates increased from 65.1 percent to 69.0 percent.1 In the 1990s and early 2000s, mortgage originations grew six-fold, from $459 billion in 1990 to $2.9 trillion in 2005. Over this same period, mortgage delinquency rates (around 4.5 percent) and foreclosure rates (around 1.2 percent) remained low between 2000 and 2005. After 2005, these patterns reversed, with homeownership rates falling and delinquency and foreclosure rates rising. Recent data show homeownership rates fell to 66 percent by the fourth quarter of 2011. Delinquency rates rose to 9.4 percent in 2009 and foreclosure rates rose to 4.6 percent in 2010. This analysis considers the patterns of homeownership, delinquency, and foreclosure over this turbulent period in the housing market for a cohort of Americans born in the years 1957 to 1964, the latter years of the "baby boom" that occurred in the United States from 1946 to 1964.

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    * FCC Releases Third "Measuring Broadband America" Report

    News release: "The Federal Communications Commission today released the results of its ongoing, nationwide performance study of residential broadband service in its third Measuring Broadband America report. The report continues the Commission’s efforts towards bringing greater clarity and competition to the home broadband services marketplace. This year’s report reveals that most broadband providers continue to improve service performance by delivering actual speeds that meet - or exceed - advertised speeds during the past year and that consumers are subscribing to faster speed tiers and receiving faster speeds than ever before."

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    * America's Energy Future: Technology and Transformation

    "The electric power delivery system that carries electricity from large central generators to customers could be severely damaged by a small number of well-informed attackers. The system is inherently vulnerable because transmission lines may span hundreds of miles, and many key facilities are unguarded. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the fact that the power grid, most of which was originally designed to meet the needs of individual vertically integrated utilities, is being used to move power between regions to support the needs of competitive markets for power generation. Primarily because of ambiguities introduced as a result of recent restricting the of the industry and cost pressures from consumers and regulators, investment to strengthen and upgrade the grid has lagged, with the result that many parts of the bulk high-voltage system are heavily stressed. Electric systems are not designed to withstand or quickly recover from damage inflicted simultaneously on multiple components. Such an attack could be carried out by knowledgeable attackers with little risk of detection or interdiction. Further well-planned and coordinated attacks by terrorists could leave the electric power system in a large region of the country at least partially disabled for a very long time. Although there are many examples of terrorist and military attacks on power systems elsewhere in the world, at the time of this study international terrorists have shown limited interest in attacking the U.S. power grid. However, that should not be a basis for complacency. Because all parts of the economy, as well as human health and welfare, depend on electricity, the results could be devastating. Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System focuses on measures that could make the power delivery system less vulnerable to attacks, restore power faster after an attack, and make critical services less vulnerable while the delivery of conventional electric power has been disrupted."

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    * EU - Surveying how European workplaces have managed in the economic downturn

    "(Dublin, Ireland) In 2009, more than 60% of employees in Europe were covered by a trade union or a works council at the workplace, according to the European Company Survey. At the same time, four out of five workplaces were found to have a good work climate. This week across 32 countries, Eurofound launches the fieldwork for the new edition of European Company Survey, aimed at providing insights to changes in workplace and human resource management practices, employee participation and social dialogue at the workplace, and performance, since the inset of the economic downturn...European companies play a crucial role in getting out of the crisis and in reaching the goals of the Europe 2020 strategy for sustainable, inclusive and smart growth. The European Company Survey (ECS) gives an overview of workplace practices and how they are negotiated in European establishments. It is based on the views of both managers and employee representatives, and it is designed to provide information on workplace practices to develop and evaluate socioeconomic policy...Information and research data from the Second European Company Survey (2ECS) are available."

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    February 16, 2013
    * Fact Sheet: The President’s Plan to Make America a Magnet for Jobs by Investing in Manufacturing

    Fact Sheet: "President Obama is committed to making America a magnet for jobs and manufacturing so we continue to build things the rest of the world buys. After shedding jobs for more than 10 years, our manufacturers have added about 500,000 over the past three. Manufacturing production has grown since the end of the recession at its fastest pace in over a decade. The President’s plan builds on that momentum by investing in American manufacturing. The President has outlined a concrete agenda to train American workers for high-tech manufacturing jobs, end tax breaks to ship jobs overseas and make the U.S. more competitive, bring jobs back, and level the playing field for our workers by opening new markets for American-made products."

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    * North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues

    North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues, Mary Beth Nikitin, Specialist in Nonproliferation, February 12, 2013

  • "This report summarizes what is known from open sources about the North Korean nuclear weapons program—including weapons-usable fissile material and warhead estimates—and assesses current developments in achieving denuclearization. Little detailed open-source information is available about the DPRK’s nuclear weapons production capabilities, warhead sophistication, the scope and success of its uranium enrichment program, or extent of its proliferation activities. In total, it is estimated that North Korea has between 30 and 50 kilograms of separated plutonium, enough for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons. While North Korea’s weapons program has been plutonium-based from the start, in the past decade, intelligence emerged pointing to a second route to a bomb using highly enriched uranium. North Korea openly acknowledged a uranium enrichment program in 2009, but has said its purpose is the production of fuel for nuclear power. In November 2010, North Korea showed visiting American experts early construction of a 100 MWT light-water reactor and a newly built gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plant, both at the Yongbyon site. The North Koreans claimed the enrichment plant was operational, but this has not been independently confirmed. U.S. officials have said that it is likely other, clandestine enrichment facilities exist. A February 2012 announcement committed North Korea to moratoria on nuclear and long-range missile testing as well as uranium enrichment suspension at Yongbyon under IAEA monitoring. However, an April 2012 satellite launch, which violated UN Security Council resolutions, caused a collapse of the February agreement. A December 2012 satellite launch was met with UN Security Council condemnation. North Korea has also made policy statements asserting its nuclear weapons status: in May 2012, North Korea changed its constitution to say that it was a “nuclear-armed state.” In January 2013, North Korea said that no dialogue on denuclearization “would be possible” and it would only disarm when all the other nuclear weapon states also disarm."

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    * Secrecy News - Army's use of unmanned aerial systems within the United States

    Secrecy News, February 14, 2012: "Legal restrictions on the use of unmanned aircraft systems in domestic operations are numerous," the manual states. The question arises particularly in the context of Defense Support of Civil Authorities (DSCA), refering to military assistance to government agencies in disaster response and other domestic emergencies. "Use of DOD intelligence capabilities for DSCA missions--such as incident awareness and assessment, damage assessment, and search and rescue--requires prior Secretary of Defense approval, together with approval of both the mission and use of the exact DOD intelligence community capabilities. Certain missions require not only approval of the Secretary of Defense, but also coordination, certification, and possibly, prior approval by the Attorney General of the United States...[...from 2003 to 2010, small, unmanned aircraft systems flew approximately 250,000 hours]"

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    * World Bank - What costs the world $260 billion each year?

    News release: "More people today have access to a cell phone than to a clean toilet. At the current rate of progress the world will miss the global sanitation target for 2015 by over half a billion people. And while the drinking water global target was met last year, nearly a billion people still lack access to an improved drinking water source. Most of these statistics are well known by water and sanitation experts, and the wider development community. Perhaps, less known is the economic cost of the water and sanitation crisis. Poor sanitation and water supply result in economic losses estimated at US$260 billion annually in developing countries, or 1.5% of their GDP. The benefits from meeting the water supply and sanitation (WSS) MDG targets combined equal over US$60 billion annually and combined WSS interventions have a US$4.3 return for every dollar invested."

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    * WSJ Infographic - Defining Middle Classe Depends on Location

    WSJ.com: In Measuring the Middle, Location is Everything and the related article.

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    * CRS - U.S. Manufacturing in International Perspective

    U.S. Manufacturing in International Perspective, Marc Levinson, Section Research Manager, February 11, 2013

  • "The health of the U.S. manufacturing sector has long been of great concern to Congress. The decline in manufacturing employment since the start of the 21st century has stimulated particular congressional interest. Members have introduced hundreds of bills intended to support domestic manufacturing activity in various ways. The proponents of such measures frequently contend that the United States is by various measures falling behind other countries in manufacturing, and they argue that this relative decline can be mitigated or reversed by government policy. This report is designed to inform the debate over the health of U.S. manufacturing through a series of charts and tables that depict the position of the United States relative to other countries according to various metrics. Understanding which trends in manufacturing reflect factors that may be unique to the United States and which are related to broader changes in technology or consumer preferences may be helpful in formulating policies intended to aid firms or workers engaged in manufacturing activity. This report does not describe or discuss specific policy options."

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    February 15, 2013
    * Federal Employees Health Benefits Program: Available Health Insurance Options

    CRS - Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHBP): Available Health Insurance Options - Annie L. Mach, Analyst in Health Care Financing, February 13, 2013

  • "FEHBP is generally available to employees, annuitants, and their dependents. Eligible individuals may elect coverage in an approved health benefits plan for either individual or family coverage. For the 2013 plan year, there are about 230 different plan choices, including all regionally available options. As a practical matter, an individual’s choice of plans is often limited to 10 to 15 different plans, depending on where the individual resides. While enrollees have a range of choices, they typically decide which options best match their needs, the amount of their wages they will contribute to health insurance, and how risk-averse they are to potential out-of-pocket costs."

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    * New GAO Reports - DHS Operations, Pipeline Permitting, GAO Mission, Unmanned Aircraft Systems
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    * Striking it Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States

    Striking it Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2011 estimates). Emmanuel Saez, January 23, 2013

  • "During the Great Recession, from 2007 to 2009, average real income per family declined dramatically by 17.4%,1 the largest two year drop since the Great Depression. Average real income for the top percentile fell even faster (36.3 percent decline, Table 1), which lead to a decrease in the top percentile income share from 23.5 to 18.1 percent. Average real income for the bottom 99% also fell sharply by 11.6%, also by far the largest two year decline since the Great Depression. This drop of 11.6% more than erases the 6.8% income gain from 2002 to 2007 for the bottom 99%. The sharp fall in top incomes is explained primarily by the collapse of realized capital gains due to the stock-market crash. Aggregate realized capital gains fell from $895 billion in 2007 to $236 billion in 2009. Indeed, including realized capital gains, the top decile income share dropped from 49.7% in 2007 to 46.5% in 2009 while excluding realized capital gains, the top decile income share remained virtually constant from 45.7% in 2007 to 45.5% in 2009."
  • Related postings on the financial system

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    * CRS - U.S. Manufacturing in International Perspective

    U.S. Manufacturing in International Perspective - Marc Levinson, Section Research Manager, February 11, 2013

  • "The health of the U.S. manufacturing sector has long been of great concern to Congress. The decline in manufacturing employment since the start of the 21st century has stimulated particular congressional interest. Members have introduced hundreds of bills intended to support domestic manufacturing activity in various ways. The proponents of such measures frequently contend that the United States is by various measures falling behind other countries in manufacturing, and they argue that this relative decline can be mitigated or reversed by government policy. This report is designed to inform the debate over the health of U.S. manufacturing through a series of charts and tables that depict the position of the United States relative to other countries according to various metrics. Understanding which trends in manufacturing reflect factors that may be unique to the United States and which are related to broader changes in technology or consumer preferences may be helpful in formulating policies intended to aid firms or workers engaged in manufacturing activity. This report does not describe or discuss specific policy options."

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    * RAND Report - Critical Materials Present Danger to U.S. Manufacturing

    Critical Materials - Present Danger to U.S. Manufacturing by Richard Silberglitt, James T. Bartis, Brian G. Chow, David L. An, Kyle Brady ["The research described in this report was prepared for the National Intelligence Council. The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community."]

  • "The United States economy, and especially its manufacturing sector, is dependent on the supply of raw and semi-finished materials used to make products. While the United States has extensive mineral resources and is a leading global materials producer, a high percentage of many materials critical to U.S. manufacturing are imported, sometimes from a country that has the dominant share of a material's global production and export. This report specifically identifies 14 critical materials for which production is concentrated in countries with weak governance, as indicated by the World Governance Indicators published by the World Bank. China is the controlling producer of 11 of these critical raw materials, nine of which have been identified as having high economic importance and high supply risk. As its market share and domestic consumption of critical materials has grown, China has instituted production controls, export restrictions, mine closings, and company consolidations that have led to two-tier pricing, which creates pressure to move manufacturing to China and contributes to strong price increases for these materials on the world market. To mitigate the impact of these market distortions on the global manufacturing sector, this report suggests the need for actions that (1) increase resiliency to supply disruptions or market distortions and (2) provide early warning of developing problems concerning the concentration of production."

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    February 14, 2013
    * New GAO Reports: Airport Passenger Fees, DOD Security, Cybersecurity, Financial Regulatory Reform, Government Reorganization,
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    * Report - Middle East Water Loss Is Starkly Documented by NASA Satellites

    Yale Environment 360 - Feb 13, 2013: "A pair of gravity-measuring NASA satellites has documented a precipitous drop in freshwater supplies in the arid Middle East over the past decade. NASA said that since 2003 parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran had lost 144 cubic kilometers of total stored freshwater, an amount roughly equivalent to the water in the Dead Sea. NASA researchers attributed 60 percent of the loss to increased pumping of groundwater from underground reservoirs. An additional 20 percent of the loss came from soil drying up and snowpack shrinking, while the remaining 20 percent came from loss of surface water in lakes and reservoirs, according to the NASA study, to be published Friday in the journal measure changes in gravity."

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    * Infographic: Russia's Development Assistance

    The World Bank - Infographic: Russia's Development Assistance. Click the image to download a high-resolution file.

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    * Obama Administration Launches College Scorecard

    Department of Education Blog: "Too often, students and their families don’t have the right tools to help them sort through the information they need to decide which college or university is right for them. The search can be overwhelming, and the information from different colleges can be hard to compare. That’s why, today, our Administration released a “College Scorecard” that empowers families to make smart investments in higher education. As the President said last night, we want to help families get the most bang for their educational buck. The College Scorecard – as part of President Obama’s continued efforts to hold colleges accountable for cost, value and quality – highlights key indicators about the cost and value of institutions across the country to help students choose a school that is well-suited to meet their needs, priced affordably, and is consistent with their educational and career goals."

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    February 13, 2013
    * Executive Order - Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity

    Executive Order - Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity, February 12, 2013.

  • "By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered as follows: Section 1. Policy. Repeated cyber intrusions into critical infrastructure demonstrate the need for improved cybersecurity. The cyber threat to critical infrastructure continues to grow and represents one of the most serious national security challenges we must confront. The national and economic security of the United States depends on the reliable functioning of the Nation's critical infrastructure in the face of such threats. It is the policy of the United States to enhance the security and resilience of the Nation's critical infrastructure and to maintain a cyber environment that encourages efficiency, innovation, and economic prosperity while promoting safety, security, business confidentiality, privacy, and civil liberties. We can achieve these goals through a partnership with the owners and operators of critical infrastructure to improve cybersecurity information sharing and collaboratively develop and implement risk-based standards..."
  • See also: The Presidential Policy Directive (PPD) on Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience advances a national unity of effort to strengthen and maintain secure, functioning, and resilient critical infrastructure, February 12, 2013
  • And via NPR, this three part series - Pentagon Goes On The Offensive Against Cyberattacks

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    * Underwater and Drowning? Some Facts about Mortgages that Could Be Targeted by Eminent Domain

    Andreas Fuster, Caitlin Gorback, and Paul Willen, Federal Reserve, New York: "Since the onset of the subprime crisis, many places across the United States have been affected by high levels of negative equity (meaning that borrowers owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth), an associated flood of foreclosures, and loss of local wealth. In mid-2012, a community advisory firm, Mortgage Resolution Partners (MRP) approached the government of San Bernardino County, California (a region with particularly high levels of negative equity) and pitched the idea of using eminent domain to seize privately securitized mortgage loans in order to restructure or refinance them. The MRP proposal was largely based on a plan by Cornell University law professor Robert Hockett. In late January, this controversial plan was abandoned by San Bernardino County, yet it remains under consideration in other counties. While a lot of the debate surrounding the plan has centered on value judgments and legal issues, in this post we look at available data in order to get an idea of the landscape of loans that could have been affected by such a program in San Bernardino County. There are a few key takeaways from our analysis. First, the share of privately securitized mortgages that are still active five years after the beginning of the subprime crisis is relatively small. Second, while a vast majority of these loans in San Bernardino County is severely underwater, the required payment (at least on the first lien) has decreased significantly for many of them. And though these loans continue to enter serious delinquency at relatively elevated rates, things look much better than they did three to four years ago, in part because house prices have increased quite rapidly over the past year. When evaluating the costs and benefits of policy options such as the use of eminent domain, these facts should be kept in mind."

  • See related postings on financial system

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    * New GAO Reports: Defense Health, Drug Control, Influenza, USPS, VA Health Care
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    * Learn more about the Ability-to-Repay rule

    "When you apply for a mortgage, it can sometimes be hard to understand how much of a monthly payment you can afford. That's why the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau introduced the Ability-to-Repay rule, which requires lenders to ensure that you can pay back the loan (plus interest) over the long term."

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    * New UN ESCAP-World Bank Database Shows Developing Countries Face Higher Trade Costs

    News release: "Although the international economy has integrated considerably in recent decades, a new database developed jointly by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the World Bank reveals that trade costs fall disproportionately on developing countries. Although developing countries are becoming more integrated into the world trading system in an absolute sense, they are starting from a higher baseline and their relative position is deteriorating because the rest of the world is moving more quickly. The new Trade Costs database uses an innovative method to estimate trade costs in agriculture and manufactured goods, opening new analytical possibilities for policymakers and researchers interested in trade integration. According to the research, trade costs are influenced to varying degrees by distance and transport costs, tariff and non-tariff measures, and logistics. The new data, which cover the time period 1995-2010, stress the importance of supply chains and connectivity constraints in explaining the higher costs and lower levels of trade integration observed in developing countries."

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    February 12, 2013
    * All 12 Federal Reserve Bank Presidents Support Money Market Mutual Fund Reform in Joint Letter to Financial Stability Oversight Council

    "The presidents of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks have submitted a joint letter responding to the Financial Stability Oversight Council's proposal on money market mutual fund (MMF) reform. The twelve Reserve Bank presidents support the Council's efforts to address the structural vulnerabilities of MMFs. They also agree with the Council's determination that MMFs' activities and practices could create or increase the risk of liquidity and credit problems spreading through the financial system."

  • See related postings on financial system

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    * Census -Employment History: 2004 and 2008

    "These detailed tables and charts from the Survey of Income and Program Participation examine the relationship between years of work experience, job tenure (years at a particular job), work status (full or part-time), presence of gaps in employment of six months or more, age, sex, educational attainment and earnings. The findings show, for example, that among women with more than 10 years of experience, those who have “gaps” in employment of more than six months have lower earnings compared with women with no gaps since beginning work. However, when comparing these women by levels of job tenure, the differences are smaller. The findings also show that on average, women accumulate experience more slowly starting around age 25. Another key finding: not only does completing a college degree mean greater earnings upon entering the job market than not being a college graduate, it results in earnings increasing at a higher rate with experience than for lower levels of education."

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    * Census - 2011 Annual Capital Expenditures

    "These statistics, based on the 2007 North American Industry Classification System, estimate business spending in 2011 for new and used structures and equipment at the sector level, as well as three-digit and selected four-digit industries. The estimates provide the private sector, especially the business community, with a relevant, timely and accurate measure of current business conditions. These data are an important input for federal agencies constructing composite national economic measures, such as the Bureau of Economic Analysis' estimates of private-fixed investment, a major component of gross domestic product; the Bureau of Labor Statistics' estimates of capital stocks for productivity analysis; and the Federal Reserve Board's Flow of Funds accounts."

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    * GAO Report - Defense Business Transformation

    Defense Business Transformation - Improvements Made but Additional Steps Needed to Strengthen Strategic Planning and Assess Progress, GAO-13-267, Feb 12, 2013

  • "DOD spends billions of dollars each year to maintain key business operations intended to support the warfighter. In 2005, GAO identified DOD's approach to business transformation as high-risk because DOD had not established management responsibility, accountability, and control over business transformationrelated activities and resources, and it lacked a plan with specific goals, measures, and mechanisms to monitor progress. GAO previously reported that DOD has taken steps to develop a management approach. This report addresses DOD's progress in (1) incorporating key strategic planning elements into its transformation plan; and (2) developing and implementing an approach for assessing DOD-wide progress toward business goals. GAO analyzed relevant DOD documents, reviewed prior and ongoing GAO work; and interviewed DOD officials."

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    * Metro Area Near New York City Has Highest Concentration of High-Income Households, Census Bureau Reports

    "The Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn., metropolitan area, near New York City, had the highest percentage of households with high income in the nation at 17.9 percent, according to a report released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. At the other end of the spectrum are two metro areas named Danville -- in Virginia and Illinois -- each with 1.1 percent of households having high income. The report defines high income as being in the top 5 percent of national income distribution, which is an annual household income of at least $191,469. This information comes from The Geographic Concentration of High-Income Households, an American Community Survey brief, which contains findings from the 2007-2011 five-year survey estimates...The report examines where these high-income households are located and which areas have the highest concentrations of such households. Thematic maps are provided showing the number and percentage of high-income households per county, while tables rank the top and bottom metropolitan statistical areas in terms of percentage of households in the top 5 percent of income. A table is also provided showing the percentage of such households in the 50 most populous metro areas."

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    * Slower State Tax Revenue Growth Is the “New Normal”

    News release: "States’ tax collections have been growing for nearly three years now, but the recovery in state tax revenues is much slower after the Great Recession than after previous recessions, according to the latest State Revenue Report from the Rockefeller Institute of Government. State tax revenues were up 2.7 percent for the third quarter of 2012 compared to the same period of 2011, according to the report by Lucy Dadayan and Donald J. Boyd. The Southwest and Rocky Mountain states showed the largest total tax revenue gains in the third quarter of 2012. However, tax revenues in most of the Southwest and Rocky Mountain states are still below the peak levels attained just after the start of the recession. At the end of fiscal 2012, overall tax collections were 1.3 percent above the peak tax collections levels reported in fiscal 2008. However, after adjusting for inflation, state tax revenues in fiscal 2012 were 4.9 percent below the recessionary peak levels reported in fiscal 2008. The recovery has been particularly anemic for personal income tax collections. About two-thirds of all states with personal income taxes reported declines in personal income tax collections in fiscal 2012 compared to their peak levels."

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    * Pricing and Mitigation of Counterparty Credit Exposures

    Pricing and Mitigation of Counterparty Credit Exposures, Agostino Capponi. Purdue University - School of Industrial Engineering. January 31, 2013. Handbook of Systemic Risk, edited by J.-P. Fouque and J.Langsam. Cambridge University Press, 2012

  • "We analyze the market price of counterparty risk and develop an arbitrage-free pricing valuation framework, inclusive of collateral mitigation. We show that the adjustment is given by the sum of option payoff terms, depending on the netted exposure, i.e. the difference between the on-default exposure and the pre-default collateral account. We specialize our analysis to Interest Rates Swaps (IRS) and Credit Default Swaps (CDS) as underlying portfolio, and perform a numerical study to illustrate the impact of default correlation, collateral margining frequency, and collateral re-hypothecation on the resulting adjustment. We also discuss problems of current research interest in the counterparty risk community."

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    * Growth in Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits for Low-Income Households

    CBO - "The federal government devotes roughly one-sixth of its spending to 10 major means-tested programs and tax credits, which provide cash payments or assistance in obtaining health care, food, housing, or education to people with relatively low income or few assets...As shown in this report and an accompanying infographic, in 2012, federal spending on those programs and tax credits totaled $588 billion. (Certain larger federal benefit programs, such as Social Security and Medicare, are not considered means-tested programs because they are not limited to people with specific amounts of income or assets.) Those programs and credits consist of the following:

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    February 11, 2013
    * Mortgage insurance: market structure, underwriting cycle and policy implications - Consultative paper

    Mortgage insurance: market structure, underwriting cycle and policy implications - Consultative paper released by the Joint Forum, February 2013

  • "This consultative report on Mortgage insurance: market structure, underwriting cycle and policy implications examines the interaction of mortgage insurers with mortgage originators and underwriters. The report sets out the following recommendations directed at policymakers and supervisors with the aim of reducing the likelihood of mortgage insurance stress and failure in such tail events.
    • Policymakers should consider requiring that mortgage originators and mortgage insurers align their interests;
    • Supervisors should ensure that mortgage insurers and mortgage originators maintain strong underwriting standards;
    • Supervisors should be alert to - and correct for - deterioration in underwriting standards stemming from behavioural incentives influencing mortgage originators and mortgage insurers;
    • Supervisors should require mortgage insurers to build long-term capital buffers and reserves during the valleys of the underwriting cycle to cover claims during its peaks;
    • Supervisors should be aware of and mitigate cross-sectoral arbitrage which could arise from differences in the accounting between insurers' technical reserves and banks' loan loss provisions, and from differences in the capital requirements for credit risk between banks and insurers; and
    • Supervisors should apply the FSB Principles for Sound Residential Mortgage Underwriting Practices ("FSB Principles") to mortgage insurers noting that proper supervisory implementation necessitates both insurance and banking expertise."
    • See related postings on financial system

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    * POGO- SEC’s Revolving Door Blurs Line Between Regulator and Industry

    "A Project On Government Oversight study of thousands of government records found that former staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) routinely:

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    * The Exchange Rate Disconnect - Federal Reserve Bank of NY

    The Exchange Rate Disconnect - Mary Amiti, Oleg Itskhoki, and Jozef Konings

  • "Why do large movements in exchange rates have small effects on international goods prices? This empirical regularity is a central puzzle in international macroeconomics. In a new study, we show that the key to understanding this exchange rate disconnect is to take into account that the largest exporters are also the largest importers. This is important because when exporters import their intermediate inputs, they face offsetting exchange rate effects on their marginal costs. For example, a depreciation of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar makes exports in U.S. dollars cheaper—but it also makes imports in euros more expensive. Using Belgian firm-level data, we show that exporters that import a large share of their inputs pass on a much smaller share of the exchange rate shock to export prices. Interestingly, import-intensive firms typically have high export market shares and hence set high markups and actively move them in response to changes in marginal cost, thus providing a second channel that limits the effect of exchange rate shocks on export prices. Our results show that a small exporter with no imported inputs has a nearly complete pass-through of more than 90 percent, while a firm at the 95th percentile of both import intensity and market share distributions has a pass-through of 56 percent, with the two mechanisms playing roughly equal roles. These findings have important implications for aggregate macroeconomic variables."
  • See related postings on financial system

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    * GAO Reports - Afghanistan, Depot Maintenance, National Defense
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    * In FTC Study, Five Percent of Consumers Had Errors on Their Credit Reports That Could Result in Less Favorable Terms for Loans

    News release: "A Federal Trade Commission study of the U.S. credit reporting industry found that five percent of consumers had errors on one of their three major credit reports that could lead to them paying more for products such as auto loans and insurance. Overall, the congressionally mandated study on credit report accuracy found that one in five consumers had an error on at least one of their three credit reports."

  • Section 319 of the Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act of 2003: Fifth Interim Federal Trade Commission Report to Congress Concerning the Accuracy of Information in Credit Reports (December 2012)

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    * A Painfully Slow Recovery for America's Workers: Causes, Implications, and the Federal Reserve's Response

    Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen At the "A Trans-Atlantic Agenda for Shared Prosperity" conference sponsored by the AFL-CIO, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, and the IMK Macroeconomic Policy Institute, Washington, D.C. February 11, 2013

  • "At the federal level, policymakers have reduced purchases of goods and services, allowed stimulus-related spending to decline, and have put in place further policy actions to reduce deficits. I was relieved that the Congress and the Administration were able to reach agreement on avoiding the full force of the "fiscal cliff" that was due to take effect on January 1. While a long-term plan is needed to reduce deficits and slow the growth of federal debt, the tax increases and spending cuts that would have occurred last month, absent action by the Congress and the President, likely would have been a headwind strong enough to blow the United States back into recession. Negotiations continue over the extent of spending cuts now due to take effect beginning in March, and I expect that discretionary fiscal policy will continue to be a headwind for the recovery for some time, instead of the tailwind it has been in the past."
  • See elated postings on financial system

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    * UK - Investigation announced in connection with Autonomy Corporation plc

    News release: "The Financial Reporting Council (FRC) has launched an investigation under the Accountancy Scheme into the published financial reporting of Autonomy for the period between 1 January 2009 and 30 June 2011. The FRC’s decision to initiate an investigation was taken following consultation with the ICAEW (Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales). The FRC is responsible for promoting high quality corporate governance and reporting to foster investment. We set the UK Corporate Governance and Stewardship Codes as well as UK standards for accounting, auditing and actuarial work. We represent UK interests in international standard-setting. We also monitor and take action to promote the quality of corporate reporting and auditing. We operate independent disciplinary arrangements for accountants and actuaries; and oversee the regulatory activities of the accountancy and actuarial professional bodies."

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    * EIA - Saudi Arabia Country Analysis Brief

    Report: "Saudi Arabia was the world's largest producer and exporter of total petroleum liquids in 2012, the world's largest holder of crude oil reserves, and the world's second largest crude oil producer behind Russia. Saudi Arabia's economy remains heavily dependent on petroleum. Petroleum exports accounted for almost 90 percent of total Saudi export revenues in 2011, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s Annual Statistical Bulletin 2012. Saudi Arabia has been shifting its focus beyond increasing oil production capacity after state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco reached its target of 12 million barrels per day in 2009. With the near-completion of its largest oil projects, Saudi Arabia is expanding its natural gas, refining, petrochemicals, and electric power industries. Saudi Arabia's oil and natural gas operations are dominated by Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company in terms of proven oil reserves and production. Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and the Supreme Council for Petroleum and Minerals have oversight of the oil and natural gas sector and Saudi Aramco. The Supreme Council, which is composed of members of the royal family, industry leaders and government ministers, is responsible for petroleum and natural gas policy-making, including contract review, as well as Saudi Aramco's strategic planning. The Ministry is responsible for national planning in the area of energy and minerals, including petrochemicals."

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    * CRS - Taxation of Unemployment Benefits

    Taxation of Unemployment Benefits, Julie M. Whittaker, Specialist in Income Security, February 7, 2013

  • "Unemployment compensation (UC) benefits have been fully subject to the federal income tax since the passage of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (P.L. 99-514). Under tax law, unemployment compensation is a broad category that includes regular state UC benefits, extended benefits (EB), trade adjustment assistance benefits, disaster unemployment assistance, and railroad unemployment benefits. The temporary Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08) benefit is also included within this category.
    Individuals who receive UC benefits during a year may elect to have the federal (and in some cases state) income tax withheld from their benefits. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-5 §1007) included a temporary exclusion on the first $2,400 of UC benefits for the purposes of the federal income tax. This exclusion existed only in 2009. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimated this would reduce federal receipts by approximately $4.7 billion. There is no current exclusion on UC benefits for the purposes of federal income tax This report provides an overview of the taxation of UC benefits and legislation related to taxing UC benefits."

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    February 10, 2013
    * New FDA reports provide data on antibiotic use in meat production and public risk

    Antibiotics And Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria In Meat: Not Getting Better, By Maryn McKenna: "A few days ago, the Food and Drug Administration released two important documents related to antibiotic use in livestock raising, and what the results of that antibiotic use are. I’d say that they released them quietly, except, when it comes to this issue, every release seems to be quiet, never accompanied by the press releases or briefings that other divisions of the FDA use to publicize their news. The two documents are the 2011 Retail Meat Report from the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System, or NARMS, and the 2011 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, which is known for short as ADUFA, after the 2008 Animal Drug User Fee Act which mandated the data be collected. These two reports capture almost all the data we receive from the federal government about antibiotic use in livestock production (which is not the same thing as “all the data the federal government possesses” — there is evidence they receive more than they release). So their annual release is an important indicator for whether antibiotic use in meat production, and antibiotic resistance in meat, are trending up or down."

  • See also Pew Charitable Trusts report - Record-High Antibiotic Sales for Meat and Poultry Production

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    * OECD - Economic Survey of the United Kingdom 2013

    Economic Survey of the United Kingdom 2013 - "Recovering from the recession, improving longer-term growth potential and reducing inequality are key challenges for the UK economy. Lingering effects from the global financial crisis, the restrictive impact from necessary fiscal consolidation and headwinds from the euro area sovereign debt crisis risk prolonging and worsening the economic downturn and hurting the long-term growth potential. Monetary policy and the operation of the automatic stabilisers should support the economy in the short term. Structural reforms, including those currently implemented by the government, are crucial to boost growth and equality."

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    * 2012 was warmest and second most extreme year on record for the contiguous U.S.

    NOAA - "In 2012, the contiguous United States (CONUS) average annual temperature of 55.3°F was 3.2°F above the 20th century average, and was the warmest year in the 1895-2012 period of record for the nation. The 2012 annual temperature was 1.0°F warmer than the previous record warm year of 1998. Since 1895, the CONUS has observed a long-term temperature increase of about 0.13°F per decade. Precipitation averaged across the CONUS in 2012 was 26.57 inches, which is 2.57 inches below the 20th century average. Precipitation totals in 2012 ranked as the 15th driest year on record. Over the 118-year period of record, precipitation across the CONUS has increased at a rate of about 0.16 inch per decade."

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    February 09, 2013
    * CRS - Evaluating the "Past Performance" of Federal Contractors: Legal Requirements and Issues

    Evaluating the “Past Performance” of Federal Contractors: Legal Requirements and Issues. Kate M. Manuel, Legislative Attorney, February 4, 2013

  • "Poor performance under a federal contract can have immediate consequences for contractors, who could be denied award or incentive fees, required to pay liquidated damages, or terminated for default. In addition, it could affect their ability to obtain future contracts because various provisions of federal law require agencies to evaluate contractors’ “past performance” and consider past performance information when making source selection decisions in negotiated procurements and when determining whether prospective contractors are “responsible.” “Past performance” refers to contractors’ performance on “active and physically completed contracts.” Currently, federal law requires agencies to evaluate and document contractor performance on all contracts whose value exceeds $150,000. The evaluation must address the contractor’s performance vis-à-vis any required subcontracting plan and may address its conformity to contract requirements, adherence to contract schedules, and related factors. The evaluation and any contractor response comprise the past performance information that is stored in government databases (e.g., Past Performance Information Retrieval System (PPIRS), Federal Awardee Performance and Integrity Information System (FAPIIS)) and may be used in future source selection decisions.

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    * Census Bureau - Infographic on America's Foreign-Born Population

    "During the last 50 years, the foreign-born population of the United States has undergone dramatic changes in size, origins and geographic distribution. How do we know about America's foreign-born? This new infographic provides a statistical snapshot of our foreign-born population from the American Community Survey and the decennial censuses."

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    * CRS - European Union Enlargement

    European Union Enlargement, Kristin Archick, Specialist in European Affairs. February 4, 2013

  • "The European Union (EU) has long viewed the enlargement process as an extraordinary opportunity to promote political stability and economic prosperity in Europe. Since 2004, EU membership has grown from 15 to 27 countries, bringing in most states of Central and Eastern Europe and fulfilling an historic pledge to further the integration of the continent by peaceful means. Analysts contend that the carefully managed process of enlargement is one of the EU’s most powerful policy tools, and that, over the years, it has helped transform many European states into functioning democracies and more affluent countries. The EU maintains that the enlargement door remains open to any European country that fulfills the EU’s political and economic criteria for membership. At the same time, EU enlargement is also very much a political process; most all significant steps on the long path to accession require the unanimous agreement of the existing 27 member states. As such, a prospective EU candidate’s relationship or conflicts with individual member states may also influence a country’s EU accession prospects and timeline."

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    * CRS - U.S. Foreign Aid to the Palestinians

    U.S. Foreign Aid to the Palestinians, Jim Zanotti, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs. January 18, 2013: "Since the establishment of limited Palestinian self-rule in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in the mid-1990s, the U.S. government has committed over $4 billion in bilateral assistance to the Palestinians, who are among the world’s largest per capita recipients of international foreign aid. Successive Administrations have requested aid for the Palestinians to support at least three major U.S. policy priorities of interest to Congress:

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    February 08, 2013
    * Guide to Using American FactFinder 2 - Census Bureau's data access system

    Linda Zellmer, Government Information & Data Services Librarian: "This guide has been developed to give users a basic introduction to Census Data and American FactFinder 2, the U.S. Census Bureau's data access system. American FactFinder has several different search options, a basic keyword search, a Guided Search and an Advanced Search system, as well as several options for mapping data. Each of these systems are described on the pages of this guide. This guide is also available as a PDF document, for those who wish to follow a printed document."

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    * U.S. Military Casualty Statistics: Operation New Dawn, Operation Iraqi Freedom, and Operation Enduring Freedom

    CRS - U.S. Military Casualty Statistics: Operation New Dawn, Operation Iraqi Freedom, and Operation Enduring Freedom. Hannah Fischer, Information Research Specialist, February 5, 2013

  • "This report presents statistics regarding U.S. military casualties in the active Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF, Afghanistan), as well as operations that have ended: Operation New Dawn (OND, Iraq) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF, Iraq). This report includes statistics on post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), traumatic brain injury (TBI), amputations, evacuations, and the demographics of casualties. Some of these statistics are publicly available at the Department of Defense’s (DOD’s) website, whereas others have been obtained through contact with experts at
    DOD."

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    * New GAO Reports - 8(a) Sole-Source Contracts, Warfighter Support
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    * Consumer Fraud Liability Study 2013

    "Payments fraud is an ever-changing beast, with fraudsters and law enforcement officials effectively playing a game of personal finance one-upmanship. Not only do consumers feel the need to worry about the traditional means by which criminals might gain access to their funds – such as shoulder surfing at ATMs, technology that makes it easy to copy one’s physical credit card, and pickpocketing – but we must also consider the likes of computer and database hacking. There have been a number of high-profile cases in the past few years where a company’s firewall has been breached, resulting in the theft and ultimate sale of millions of consumers’ financial information. Even so, cumulative fraud losses only amounted to about $0.09 per $100 in credit card and debit card transactions during 2006, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City."

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    * BLS - Women in the Labor Force

    Women in the Labor Force: A Databook, February 2013

  • "Over the past 4 decades, women have made notable changes in their labor force activities. Labor force participation is significantly higher among women today than it was in the 1970s, particularly among women with children, and a larger share of women are working full time and year round. In addition, women have increasingly attained higher levels of education: among women ages 25 to 64 who are in the labor force, the proportion with a college degree roughly tripled from 1970 to 2011. Women’s earnings as a proportion of men’s earnings also have grown over time. In 1979, women working full time earned 62 percent of what men did; in 2011, women’s earnings were 82 percent of men’s."

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    February 07, 2013
    * International financial markets and bank funding in the euro area: dynamics and participants

    International financial markets and bank funding in the euro area: dynamics and participants, by Jaime Caruana and Adrian Van Rixtel
    February 2013 (originally published in Spanish in the journal "Economistas", in December 2012)

  • "This article investigates the development of bank funding in the euro area in recent years, analysing how euro area funding markets were severely disrupted by adverse feedback effects between the weaknesses of sovereigns and banks. These were reflected, for example, in important adjustments in funding provided by international banks and US money market funds and in a growing recourse to secured instruments such as covered bonds. The article concludes that funding structures that seem stable in normal times can turn highly unstable during episodes of financial market stress. This applies in particular to financing obtained from foreign sources, which may be especially sensitive to shocks in recipient countries. Moreover, the strong link between sovereigns and banks has underscored the importance of fiscal prudence and, in the European case, the need for greater financial integration in the euro area."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Second-Generation Americans A Portrait of the Adult Children of Immigrants

    "Second-generation Americans—the 20 million adult U.S.-born children of immigrants—are substantially better off than immigrants themselves on key measures of socioeconomic attainment, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. They have higher incomes; more are college graduates and homeowners; and fewer live in poverty. In all of these measures, their characteristics resemble those of the full U.S. adult population. Hispanics and Asian Americans make up about seven-in-ten of today’s adult immigrants and about half of today’s adult second generation. Pew Research surveys find that the second generations of both groups are much more likely than the immigrants to speak English; to have friends and spouses outside their ethnic or racial group, to say their group gets along well with others, and to think of themselves as a “typical American.”

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    * New GAO Reports: Cuba Democracy Assistance, Space, Sex Offender Registration, Sub-Saharan Africa,
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    * Rebooting the Government Printing Office: Keeping America Informed in the Digital Age

    The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) independent study of the U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO), Rebooting the Government Printing Office: Keeping America Informed in the Digital Age, January 2013

  • "Over the past two decades, the shift from an industrial age to an information age has affected the way both public and private sector organizations operate. For GPO, the demand for federal print products has declined by half over the past twenty years, but the demand for information that government creates has only increased. While conducting this review, the Panel determined that GPO faces challenges in dealing with the movement to the digital age that are shared across the federal government. Critical issues for the federal government include publishing formats, metadata, authentication, cataloging, dissemination, preservation, public access, and disposition. The Panel believes that the federal government needs to establish a broad government-wide strategy to manage digital information through all stages of its lifecycle. The absence of such a strategy has resulted in a chaotic environment with significant implications for public access to government information—and, therefore, the democratic process—with some observers describing federal digital publishing as the “wild west.” Now that approximately 97 percent of all federal documents are “born digital,” many important documents are not being authenticated or preserved for the future, and the public cannot easily access them. GPO has a critical role to play along with other agencies in developing a government-wide strategy that streamlines processes, clearly defines agency responsibilities, avoids duplication and waste, and effectively provides information to current and future generations."

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    * EPA Releases State Enforcement Performance Information and Comparative Maps

    News release: "The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced the release of state dashboards and comparative maps that provide the public with information about the performance of state and EPA enforcement and compliance programs across the country. Most states and tribes in the United States have the authority to implement and enforce many of the nation’s air, water and waste laws. The dashboards and maps include state level data from the last five years and provide information including the number of completed inspections, types of violations found, enforcement actions taken, and penalties assessed by state. To ensure data quality, EPA made the maps and dashboards available to the states in advance of this public release, in order to provide an opportunity to make any necessary data corrections. Users can customize the dashboards to view state activity, EPA activity, or combined activity. Where available, the site also allows users to view national averages and display state enforcement trends over time. The interactive state performance dashboards are located on EPA’s Enforcement and Compliance History Online (ECHO) website. ECHO is an EPA transparency tool that allows the user to map federal and state inspection, violation, and enforcement information for more than 800,000 regulated facilities. The state dashboards and comparative maps that are available in ECHO are part of EPA’s commitment to increasing transparency and providing data to the public in a format that is easy to understand and use."

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    * CRS - Veterans and Homelessness

    Veterans and Homelessness, Libby Perl. Specialist in Housing Policy, February 4, 2013

  • "The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have brought renewed attention to the needs of veterans, including the needs of homeless veterans. Researchers have found both male and female veterans to be overrepresented in the homeless population, and as the number of veterans increases due to these conflicts, there is concern that the number of homeless veterans could rise commensurately. The 2007-2009 recession and the subsequent slow economic recovery also raised concerns that homelessness could increase among all groups, including veterans."

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    * Social Security Annual Statistical Supplement, 2012

    Social Security Administration Annual Statistical Supplement, 2012 [released February 2013]

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    February 06, 2013
    * Clearspending.org - Keeping Tabs on USASpending.gov

    ClearSpending Background on Federal Spending Reporting Systems: "Clearspending analyzes the quality of data in USASpending.gov. To fully understand our analysis -- and to understand why it's necessary -- it is important to know the history of the systems that have evolved into USASpending.gov. The infrastructure used to track federal spending has been steadily growing over the course of decades, in a process that has all too often involved ad-hoc alterations to outdated systems rather than thoughtful redesign. The story of how this occurred is every bit as complicated and problematic as the systems themselves. We've taken data from other federal reporting systems and compared it with just the grants data found in USASpending.gov across three categories: Consistency, Completeness and Timeliness. How close are the reported dollar amounts to the yearly estimates? How many of the required fields are filled out in each record? And how long did it take the agency to report the money once it was allocated to a project?"

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    * BIS - Understanding Global Liquidity

    Understanding Global Liquidity, by Sandra Eickmeier, Leonardo Gambacorta and Boris Hofmann. Working Papers No 402, February 2013

  • "We explore the concept of global liquidity based on a factor model estimated using a large set of financial and macroeconomic variables from 24 advanced and emerging market economies. We measure global liquidity conditions based on the common global factors in the dynamics of liquidity indicators. By imposing theoretically motivated sign restrictions on factor loadings, we achieve a structural identification of the factors. The results suggest that global liquidity conditions are largely driven by three common factors and can therefore not be summarised by a single indicator. These three factors can be identified as global monetary policy, global credit supply and global credit demand."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * BIS - Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific

    Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, BIS Papers No 70, February 2013

  • "The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) organised a research workshop on globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific on June 18-19 in Hong Kong SAR. The topic was endorsed by the Asian Consultative Council in February 2012 as the new monetary stability research theme for the two-year research programme of the BIS Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific. The conference venue was provided by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The goal of the event was to bring together researchers and policymakers to present the latest developments in the research area of globalisation and inflation...The workshop presentations revolved around five key themes: economic globalisation and inflation dynamics in the region; financial globalisation and its impact on exchange rate passthrough to inflation; the importance of commodity price swings; the difficulties measuring economic slack in small, open economies; and understanding how to interpret inflation expectation data from different sources. Emphasis was put on the changing economic and financial environment and the implications for monetary policymaking. In addition to presentations of research papers, the workshop included two high-level policy panel discussions focused on monetary policy challenges in the Asia-Pacific region."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * New GAO Reports - Charter Schools, FCC Controls over Enhanced Secured Network Project
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    * CRS - The Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC)

    The Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC), Christine Scott, Specialist in Social Policy, February 4, 2013

  • "The Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC) is meant to induce employers to hire members of families receiving benefits under the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program and other groups thought to experience employment problems regardless of general economic conditions (e.g., food stamp recipients and ex-felons). In 1997, Congress passed the Welfare-to-Work (WtW) tax credit to focus specifically on more disadvantaged TANF recipients. The 109th Congress folded the WtW credit into a revised WOTC as part of the Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006."

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    * Survey - Federal Government Shows Two-Year Positive Trend for Satisfaction

    News release: "Americans are more satisfied with services provided by the U.S. federal government for a second consecutive year, according to a report released today by the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI). ACSI results show that citizen satisfaction with federal government is up 2.2% to 68.4 (on a scale of 0 to 100) in 2012 compared to the prior year. The net gain for federal services since 2010, when citizen satisfaction sank to a low of 65.4, is a healthy 4.6%. The two-year positive trend for the federal government helps narrow the public sector-private sector satisfaction gap in 2012. The lowest-scoring economic sector, Information at 71.9, is now 3.5 points ahead of the federal benchmark, down from 7.4 points in 2010."

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    * Report - As Traffic Jams Worsen, Commuters Allowing Extra Time for Urgent Trips

    "As traffic congestion continues to worsen, the time required for a given trip becomes more unpredictable, and researchers now have a way to measure that degree of unreliability, introduced for the first time as part of the annual Urban Mobility Report (UMR), published by the Texas A&M Transportation Institute (TTI). The Planning Time Index (PTI), a measure of travel reliability, illustrates the amount of extra time needed to arrive on time for higher priority events, such as an airline departure, just-in-time shipments, medical appointments or especially important social commitments. If the PTI for a particular trip is 3.00, a traveler would allow 60 minutes for a trip that typically takes 20 minutes when few cars are on the road. Allowing for a PTI of 3.00 would ensure on-time arrival 19 out of 20 times."

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    * Towers Watson - Global Pensions Asset Study - 2013

    "This is a study of the 13 largest pension markets in the world and accounts for more than 85% of global pension assets. The countries included are Australia, Canada, Brazil, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Japan, Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, the UK and the US. The study also analyses seven countries in greater depth by excluding the six smallest markets (Brazil, France, Germany, Ireland, Hong Kong and South Africa). The analysis includes:

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    February 05, 2013
    * The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023

    The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 report, February 5, 2013

  • "Economic growth will remain slow this year, CBO anticipates, as gradual improvement in many of the forces that drive the economy is offset by the effects of budgetary changes that are scheduled to occur under current law. After this year, economic growth will speed up, CBO projects, causing the unemployment rate to decline and inflation and interest rates to eventually rise from their current low levels. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate is expected to remain above 7½ percent through next year; if that happens, 2014 will be the sixth consecutive year with unemployment exceeding 7½ percent of the labor force—the longest such period in the past 70 years."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Budgetary Paths

    Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Budgetary Paths, February 2013

  • "Federal debt held by the public now exceeds 70 percent of the nation’s annual output (gross domestic product, or GDP) and stands at a higher percentage than in any year since 1950. Under an assumption whereby current laws generally remain unchanged, federal debt will be 77 percent of GDP in 2023, CBO projects. Such a large amount of federal debt will reduce the nation’s output and income below what would occur if the debt was smaller, and it raises the risk of a fiscal crisis (in which the government would lose the ability to borrow money at affordable interest rates). Moreover, the aging of the population and rising health care costs will tend to push debt even higher in the following decades."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * DOJ Sues Standard & Poor’s for Fraud in Rating Mortgage-Backed Securities in the Years Leading Up to the Financial Crisis

    DOJ news release: "Attorney General Eric Holder announced today that the Department of Justice has filed a civil lawsuit against the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services alleging that S&P engaged in a scheme to defraud investors in structured financial products known as Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) and Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). The lawsuit alleges that investors, many of them federally insured financial institutions, lost billions of dollars on CDOs for which S&P issued inflated ratings that misrepresented the securities’ true credit risks. The complaint also alleges that S&P falsely represented that its ratings were objective, independent, and uninfluenced by S&P’s relationships with investment banks when, in actuality, S&P’s desire for increased revenue and market share led it to favor the interests of these banks over investors...Today’s action was filed in the Central District of California, home to the now defunct Western Federal Corporate Credit Union (WesCorp), which was the largest corporate credit union in the country. Following the 2008 financial crisis, WesCorp collapsed after suffering massive losses on RMBS and CDOs rated by S&P...The complaint, which names McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and its subsidiary, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (collectively S&P) as defendants, seeks civil penalties under the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989 (FIRREA) based on three forms of alleged fraud by S&P: (1) mail fraud affecting federally insured financial institutions in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1341; (2) wire fraud affecting federally insured financial institutions in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1343; and (3) financial institution fraud in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1344. FIRREA authorizes the Attorney General to seek civil penalties up to the amount of the losses suffered as a result of the alleged violations. To date, the government has identified more than $5 billion in losses suffered by federally insured financial institutions in connection with the failure of CDOs rated by S&P from March to October 2007."

  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Description of Civil Liberties and Privacy Protections in updated NCTC Guidelines

    Description of Civil Liberties and Privacy Protections in the updated NCTC Guidelines, January 2013, Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

  • "In March, 2012, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Attorney General, and the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) approved the updated Guidelines for Access, Retention, Use, and Dissemination by the National Counterterrorism Center and Other Agencies of Information in Datasets Containing Non-Terrorism Information (referred to here as the "NCTC Guidelines" or "Guidelines") (available at www.nctc.gov). The NCTC Guidelines make important updates and modifications to the 2008 version of the Guidelines. The new Guidelines ensure that NCTC has an effective and efficient means of assessing federal agency datasets that are likely to contain significant terrorism information, permit NCTC to use terrorism information for proper purposes subject to multi-layered privacy and civil liberties protections, and establish comprehensive compliance and oversight mechanisms."

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    * Integration of Drones into Domestic Airspace: Selected Legal Issues

    Integration of Drones into Domestic Airspace: Selected Legal Issues. Alissa M. Dolan, Legislative Attorney - Richard M. Thompson II, Legislative Attorney, January 30, 2013

  • "Under the FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012, P.L. 112-95, Congress has tasked the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) with integrating unmanned aircraft systems (UASs), sometimes referred to as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones, into the national airspace system by September 2015. Although the text of this act places safety as a predominant concern, it fails to establish how the FAA should resolve significant, and up to this point, largely unanswered legal questions...With the ability to house surveillance sensors such as high-powered cameras and thermal-imaging devices, some argue that drone surveillance poses a significant threat to the privacy of American citizens. Because the Fourth Amendment’s prohibition against unreasonable searches and seizures applies only to acts by government officials, surveillance by private actors such as the paparazzi, a commercial enterprise, or one’s neighbor is instead regulated, if at all, by state and federal statutes and judicial decisions. Yet, however strong this interest in privacy may be, there are instances where the public’s First Amendment rights to gather and receive news might outweigh an individual’s interest in being let alone."
  • See also via Pew - February 6, 2013. U.S. Use of Drones, Under New Scrutiny, Has Been Widely Opposed Abroad

    • Permanent Link
    * Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population

    "The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape."

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    * Assessment of Advanced Solid State Lighting

    "The standard incandescent light bulb, which still works mainly as Thomas Edison invented it, converts more than 90% of the consumed electricity into heat. Given the availability of newer lighting technologies that convert a greater percentage of electricity into useful light, there is potential to decrease the amount of energy used for lighting in both commercial and residential applications. Although technologies such as compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) have emerged in the past few decades and will help achieve the goal of increased energy efficiency, solid-state lighting (SSL) stands to play a large role in dramatically decreasing U.S. energy consumption for lighting. This report summarizes the current status of SSL technologies and products—light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and organic LEDs (OLEDs)—and evaluates barriers to their improved cost and performance. Assessment of Advanced Solid State Lighting also discusses factors involved in achieving widespread deployment and consumer acceptance of SSL products. These factors include the perceived quality of light emitted by SSL devices, ease of use and the useful lifetime of these devices, issues of initial high cost, and possible benefits of reduced energy consumption."

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    February 04, 2013
    * Federal Agencies Working to Make Homes Healthier / Improving housing quality can dramatically affect the health of residents

    News release: "Several federal agencies today unveiled Advancing Healthy Housing – A Strategy for Action...The initiative represents a bold new vision for addressing the nation’s health and economic burdens caused by preventable hazards associated with the home. The Strategy for Action encourages federal agencies to take preemptive actions that will help reduce the number of American homes with health and safety hazards. People in the United States spend about 70% of their time in a home. Currently, millions of U.S. homes have moderate to severe physical housing problems, including dilapidated structure; roofing problems; heating, plumbing, and electrical deficiencies; water leaks and intrusion; pests; damaged paint; and high radon gas levels. These conditions are associated with a wide range of health issues, including unintentional injuries, respiratory illnesses like asthma and radon-induced lung cancer, lead poisoning, result in lost school days for children, as well as lost productivity in the labor force. The health and economic burdens from preventable hazards associated with the home are considerable, and cost billions of dollars."

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    * Did Securitization Lead to Riskier Corporate Lending?

    Did Securitization Lead to Riskier Corporate Lending? by João Santos, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  • "There’s ample evidence that securitization led mortgage lenders to take more risk, thereby contributing to a large increase in mortgage delinquencies during the financial crisis. In this post, I discuss evidence from a recent research study I undertook with Vitaly Bord suggesting that securitization also led to riskier corporate lending. We show that during the boom years of securitization, corporate loans that banks securitized at loan origination underperformed similar, unsecuritized loans originated by the same banks. Additionally, we report evidence suggesting that the performance gap reflects looser underwriting standards applied by banks to loans they securitize."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Harvard Business Review: Can business leaders work to address problems inherent in the system?
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    * The January 2013 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

    "The Federal Reserve System January 2013 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices addressed changes in the supply of, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months. This summary is based on responses from 68 domestic banks and 22 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. In the January survey, generally modest fractions of domestic banks reported having eased their standards across major loan categories over the past three months on net. On balance, small percentages of domestic respondents reported that lending standards on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans had been eased over the past three months and that many terms on such loans had also been loosened. In addition, moderate net fractions of domestic banks reported that demand for C&I loans from firms of all sizes had increased over the survey period. Domestic respondents indicated that demand for business loans, prime residential mortgages, and auto loans had strengthened, on balance, while demand for other types of loans was about unchanged. U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, which mainly lend to businesses, reported little change in their lending standards, while demand for their loans was reportedly stronger on net."

  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Annual Report to Congress Regarding the Financial Status of the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund FY2012

    Annual Report to Congress Regarding the Financial Status of the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund Fiscal Year 2012, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, November 16, 2012

  • "There are three fundamental factors driving the decline in the capital reserve ratio this year. First, while FHA continues to have the most profitable new books of business in its history, the
    house price appreciation estimates used for this actuarial study are significantly lower than those used last year. This accounts for an estimated $10.5 billion in reduced value compared to the actuary’s projection last year of what the Fund’s economic value would be at the end of FY 2012. In addition, the house price assumptions used by the independent actuary do not include improvements to home prices observed since June, and the estimates of near-term movements in house prices are depressed by a high level of refinance activity in the particular index series used. Second, the continued decline in interest rates, while good for the overall economy, is costly to FHA...Third, based on recommendations made by the GAO, HUD’s Inspector General and others, the actuary changed the way it reflects losses from defaulted loans and reverse mortgages in the economic value of the MMI Fund."

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    * World Bank - The Power of the Crowd: Mapping schools and hospitals

    "In most developing countries it is often quite hard to know where hospitals or other basic services are located. Even if this data is publicly available it can be inaccurate or incomplete. In the middle of November 2012, the OpenGov Hub and the World Bank Institute (WBI) hosted a Social Infrastructure Mapping event to raise awareness of this issue. More than 50 mappers from different institutions including Development Gateway, Ushahidi, ESRI, World Bank, Development Seed, Wilson Center, Blue Raster, Red Cross, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and many others came together to share experiences and discuss their ideas about how the problem could be solved."

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    * Homeless Youth in the United States

    United States Interagency Council on Homelessness: "The actual number of unaccompanied youth experiencing homelessness is difficult to pinpoint. Due to barriers that exist for young people in accessing adult-only shelters and their lack of connection to most social services, many if not most youth experiencing homelessness go uncounted. The most recent Annual Point in Time Count conducted in January 2011 was the most comprehensive count to date. In June 2012, the Council unveiled a new framework for approaching the problem of youth homelessness in a more coordinated and effective way across different disciplines working with this population. This youth framework was included in the Amendment to Opening Doors, released in September 2012."

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    February 03, 2013
    * Choosing the Road to Prosperity Why We Must End Too Big to Fail - Now

    Choosing the Road to Prosperity Why We Must End Too Big to Fail - Now. 2011 Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, by Harvey Rosenblum: "The too-big-to-fail institutions that amplified and prolonged the recent financial crisis remain a hindrance to full economic recovery and to the very ideal of American capitalism. It is imperative that we end TBTF." See also:

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    * Pew - A Portrait of the 40 Million, Including 11 Million Unauthorized

    A Nation of Immigrants A Portrait of the 40 Million, Including 11 Million Unauthorized: "The United States is the world’s leader by far as a destination for immigrants. The country with the next largest number is Russia with 12.3 million. The U.S. total of 40.4 million, which includes legal as well as unauthorized immigrants, represents 13% of the total U.S. population in 2011. While the foreign-born population size is a record, immigrants’ share of the total population is below the U.S. peak of just under 15% during a previous immigration wave from 1890 to 1920 that was dominated by arrivals from Europe. The modern wave, which began with the passage of border-opening legislation in 1965, has been dominated by arrivals from Latin America (about 50%) and Asia (27%)."

  • Also via Pew - Statistical Portrait of the Foreign-Born Population in the United States, 2011

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    February 02, 2013
    * The U.S. Government Engagement In Global Health: A Primer

    Kaiser: "Presently, U.S. support for global health involves many different U.S. government departments and agencies, Congressional committees, initiatives, and funding streams. As a multi-pronged, multi-billion dollar investment that targets a myriad of global health challenges, countries, and stakeholders, the U.S. global health response is complex. This primer provides basic information about global health and U.S. government programs that address global health. The first several sections provide an overview of the field of global health and describe current global health issues. The subsequent sections describe U.S. government support for global health, from the programs the government supports, to the “architecture” of the U.S. response, the budgets and financing of U.S. global health programs, and the U.S. government’s relationship with multilateral institutions and international partners."

    Permanent Link
    * 2012 Immigration-Related Laws and Resolutions in the States

    2012 Immigration-Related Laws and Resolutions in the States (Jan. 1–Dec. 31, 2012)

  • "After a steady climb in immigration-related bills starting in 2005, the number of bills and resolutions declined significantly in statehouses in 2012. State legislators introduced 983 bills and resolutions in 46 state legislatures, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, a decline of 39 percent compared to the 1,607 bills introduced in 2011. However, the decline in the number of enacted laws and resolutions was less marked. In 2012, 44 states and Puerto Rico enacted 156 laws and adopted 111 resolutions for a total of 267. This is down from 306 laws and resolutions in 2011, a decline of 13 percent. Twelve additional bills passed in six different state legislatures; 11 were vetoed by governors and one was pending at the close of 2012 and signed into law Jan. 7, 2013."

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    * Kaiser Report - Policy Options to Sustain Medicare for the Future

    "With Medicare expected to be a key part of Washington’s ongoing debate about solutions to reduce the federal budget and national debt, this report serves as a compendium of policy options that may be discussed in upcoming budget debates. The report presents a wide array of options in several areas and lays out the possible implications of these options for Medicare beneficiaries, health care providers, and others, as well as estimates of potential savings, when available. The report is intended to serve as a reference guide for policymakers and others as the debate moves forward. The report does not endorse or recommend a specific set of Medicare policy options, nor is it designed to achieve a specific savings target. Rather, it was designed to review options that may be considered. Savings and revenue options were compiled from government reports, recent debt reduction proposals, the literature, and interviews with dozens of leading health care and Medicare policy experts. The report includes options in the following areas:

    Permanent Link
    February 01, 2013
    * Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: Recent Activities and Ongoing Developments

    Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: Recent Activities and Ongoing Developments, January 31, 2013

  • "In the wake of the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico on April 20, 2010, the federal government, state governments, and responsible parties faced an unprecedented challenge. An oil discharge continued for 84 days, resulting in the largest oil spill in U.S. waters—estimated at approximately 206 million gallons (4.9 million barrels)...To date, BP has paid over $10 billion to the federal government, state and local governments, and private parties for economic claims and other expenses, including response costs, related to the oil spill. BP estimates that a recently approved settlement will lead to an additional $7.8 billion in payments to private parties.
    BP and other responsible parties have agreed to civil and/or criminal settlements with the Department of Justice (DOJ). Although some are awaiting court approval, settlements from various parties, to date, total almost $6 billion. BP’s potential civil penalties under the Clean Water Act, which could be considerable, are not yet determined."

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    * CRS - The Unemployed and Job Openings: A Data Primer

    The Unemployed and Job Openings: A Data Primer. Donald Hirasuna, Analyst in Labor Policy. January 31, 2013

  • "New information that adds to the mix of labor market indicators may be useful to Congress. The ratio of unemployed persons per job opening provides information on how many unemployed persons on average there are for every job opening. It adds to the current mix of labor market indicators such as the unemployment rate, which is a measure of the excess supply of workers. In addition, it adds to employment statistics, which measures the demand for workers that have already been met by employers. By dividing the number of unemployed persons with the number of job openings, the ratio gauges the excess supply of workers relative to the demand, where job openings serve as a measure of the unmet need for workers. The resultant statistic compares the number of persons who are actively searching for jobs to the number of available opportunities."

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    * Sovereign Debt in Advanced Economies: Overview and Issues for Congress

    Sovereign Debt in Advanced Economies: Overview and Issues for Congress. Rebecca M. Nelson, Analyst in International Trade and Finance. January 31, 2013

  • "Sovereign debt, also called public debt or government debt, refers to debt incurred by governments. Since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, public debt in advanced economies has increased substantially. A number of factors related to the financial crisis have fueled the increase, including fiscal stimulus packages, the nationalization of private-sector debt, and lower tax revenue. Even if economic growth reverses some of these trends, such as by boosting tax receipts and reducing spending on government programs, aging populations in advanced economies are expected to strain government debt levels in coming years. High levels of debt in advanced economies are a relatively new global concern, after decades of attention on debt levels in developing and emerging markets. Three Eurozone countries, Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, have turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other European governments for financial assistance in order to avoid defaulting on their loans. There are also concerns about the sustainability of public debt in Japan and the United States."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * GAO Report: FCC Needs to Strengthen Controls over Enhanced Secured Network Project

    Federal Communications Commission Needs to Strengthen Controls over Enhanced Secured Network Project, GAO-13-155, Jan 25, 2013

  • "The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) did not effectively implement appropriate information security controls in the initial components of the Enhanced Secured Network (ESN) project. Although FCC took steps to enhance its ability to control and monitor its network for security threats, weaknesses identified in the commission's deployment of components of the ESN project as of August 2012 resulted in unnecessary risk that sensitive information could be disclosed, modified, or obtained without authorization. This occurred, in part, because FCC did not fully implement key information security activities during the development and deployment of the initial components of the project. While FCC policy is to integrate security risk management into system life-cycle management activities, the commission instead deployed the initial components of the ESN project without, among other things, first selecting and documenting the security controls, assessing the controls, or authorizing the system to operate. As a result of these deficiencies, FCC's information remained at unnecessary risk of inadvertent or deliberate misuse, improper disclosure, or destruction. Further, addressing these deficiencies could require costly and timeconsuming rework."

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    * Health Savings Accounts and Health Reimbursement Arrangements

    Health Savings Accounts and Health Reimbursement Arrangements: Assets, Account Balances, and Rollovers, 2006–2012. January 2013

  • "After a slight drop during the recent recession, health savings accounts (HSAs) and health reimbursement arrangements (HRAs) are showing renewed growth, the average account balance increasing over the past two years, according to new research by the nonpartisan Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI). These individual health accounts are a central element in so-called “consumer-driven” health plans, which first began to appear in the work place about 12 years ago. They are designed to give individuals more control over funds allocated for health care services, thereby causing health plan participants to spend the money more responsibly. According to results from the 2012 Consumer Engagement in Health Care Survey (CEHCS), sponsored by EBRI and Mathew Greenwald and Associates, average account balances leveled off in 2008 and 2009, and fell slightly in 2010, but increased in 2011 and 2012. Specifically, average account balances rebounded to $1,470 (up 9 percent increase from 2010) and to $1,534 in 2012 (a 4 percent increase). In 2012, there was $17.8 billion in health savings accounts (HSAs) and health reimbursement arrangements (HRAs), spread across 11.6 million accounts, according to the CEHCS. This was up from 2006 (when there were 1.3 million accounts with $873.4 million in assets) and 2011 (when 8.5 million accounts held $12.4 billion in assets)."

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    • * Unemployment Insurance: Legislative Issues in the 113th Congress

    CRS - Unemployment Insurance: Legislative Issues in the 113th Congress, January 25, 2013

  • "The 113th Congress may face a number of issues related to currently available unemployment insurance programs: Unemployment Compensation (UC), temporary Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08), and Extended Benefits (EB). With the national unemployment rate decreasing but still high, the weekly demand for regular and extended unemployment benefits continues at high levels. Congress deliberated multiple times on whether to extend the authorization for several key temporary unemployment insurance provisions in the 112th Congress and may do so again in the 113th Congress. The signing of P.L. 112-240 on January 2, 2013, now means that the EUC08 program expires the week ending on or before January 1, 2014. The 100% federal financing of the EB program expires on December 31, 2013. In addition, the option for states to use three-year EB trigger lookbacks (the period of time considered in determining an active EB program within a state) expires the week ending on or before December 31, 2013."

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    January 31, 2013
    * New GAO Reports:Homeland Security,TSA Explosives Detection Canine Program, Child Welfare, International Affairs
    Permanent Link
    * Policy Options to Sustain Medicare for the Future With Medicare

    Kaiser: "With Medicare expected to be a key part of Washington’s ongoing debate about solutions to reduce the federal budget and national debt, this report serves as a compendium of policy options that may be discussed in upcoming budget debates. The report presents a wide array of options in several areas and lays out the possible implications of these options for Medicare beneficiaries, health care providers, and others, as well as estimates of potential savings, when available. The report is intended to serve as a reference guide for policymakers and others as the debate moves forward. The report does not endorse or recommend a specific set of Medicare policy options, nor is it designed to achieve a specific savings target. Rather, it was designed to review options that may be considered. Savings and revenue options were compiled from government reports, recent debt reduction proposals, the literature, and interviews with dozens of leading health care and Medicare policy experts. The report includes options in the following areas:

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    January 30, 2013
    * FTC Study Shines a Light on the Debt Buying Industry, Finds Consumers Would Benefit from Use of Better Data in Debt Collection

    News release: "The Federal Trade Commission today announced the results of the first empirical study of debt buyers – companies that are in the business of buying consumer debts and trying to collect on them. As the Commission has found in its prior work, debt collectors who have insufficient information may approach the wrong consumers, try to collect the wrong amount, or both. The report, titled The Structure and Practices of the Debt Buying Industry, found there is room for improvement in the information debt buyers have when they contact consumers and try to collect. The study analyzed more than 5,000 portfolios of consumer debt containing nearly 90 million consumer accounts with a face value of $143 billion. By dollar amount, most of the debt studied (71 percent) was credit card debt, but the study also included mortgage, medical, utility, telecommunications, and other consumer debt. The study evaluated the types of information debt buyers received from creditors both at and after the time of purchase, as well as the contracts governing the relationship between debt buyers and creditors."

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    * International Journal of Central Banking - Special Supplemental Issue

    "The International Journal of Central Banking (IJCB) is an initiative of the central banking community. Published quarterly, the journal features articles on central bank theory and practice, with a special emphasis on research relating to monetary and financial stability. The main objectives of the International Journal of Central Banking are:

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    * UN Technology and Innovation Report 2012

    "Fast-growing South–South trade and investment is an opportunity to ramp up developing countries’ abilities to master market-useful technologies and to bolster their abilities to innovate new products and services, an UNCTAD report says. The Technology and Innovation Report 2012, subtitled Innovation, Technology and South–South Collaboration, was released today. South–South economic cooperation is one of the major global economic developments of the past two decades. Exchanges between developing countries accounted for 55 per cent of global trade in 2010, as compared to 41 per cent in 1995, and this trend is already leading to useful diffusions of technology and innovative capacity, the Report says. Increased South–South exchange can lead to greater technological sharing, in a variety of ways. A first important channel is the import of goods, the Report says, which are used by importing countries to improve their production processes through copying and reverse engineering. Global production networks and foreign direct investment (FDI) are other factors that could promote transfers of technology and technological development in countries."

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    * Homeownership Among the Foreign-Born Population: 2011

    Homeownership Among the Foreign-Born Population: 2011. American Community Survey Briefs, By Edward N. Trevelyan, Yesenia D. Acosta, and Patricia De La Cruz. Issued January 2013

  • "Homeownership is a goal shared by many residents of the United States, both native and foreign born, citizen and noncitizen. For immigrants in particular, making the transition from renter to homeowner represents a significant investment in the United States. With nearly 1 in 7 U.S. households headed by someone who is foreign born, decisions made by immigrants and their families to purchase a home can have a measurable impact on the U.S. housing market. The nation’s urban geography is increasingly shaped by these foreign-born households, bringing unique identities to cities and neighborhoods."

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    * CRS - Federal Programs Available to Unemployed Workers

    Federal Programs Available to Unemployed Workers - January 9, 2013

  • Four groups of federal programs target unemployed workers: unemployment insurance, health care assistance, job search assistance, and training. This report presents information on federal programs targeted to unemployed workers specifically, but does not attempt to discuss meanstested programs (such as Medicaid or SSI) that are available regardless of employment status. When eligible workers lose their jobs, the Unemployment Compensation (UC) program may provide up to 26 weeks of income support through the payment of regular UC benefits. Unemployment benefits may be extended by the temporarily authorized Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC08) program. Unemployment benefits may also be extended for up to 13 or 20 weeks by the permanent Extended Benefit (EB) program if certain economic conditions exist within the state. Workers whose job loss is caused by foreign competition may be eligible for extended income support through the Trade Adjustment Assistance for Workers (TAA) program. If an unemployed worker is not eligible to receive UC benefits and the worker’s unemployment may be directly attributed to a declared major disaster, a worker may be eligible to receive Disaster Unemployment Assistance (DUA) benefits."

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    January 29, 2013
    * New GAO Reports - Broadcasting Board of Governors, DOD Health Care, Interagency Contracting, Military Personnel
    Permanent Link
    * Revenue Grew in Most Service Sectors in 2011, Census Bureau Reports

    "The U.S. Census Bureau today released its 2011 Service Annual Survey, which shows 10 of the nation's 11 service sectors had an increase in revenues for employer firms between 2010 and 2011. The finance and insurance sector continued to be the only sector to show a year-to-year decline in revenue, which edged down by $35.0 billion to $3.3 trillion for 2011. The Service Annual Survey provides the most comprehensive national statistics available annually on service activity in the United States. In 2009, the survey was expanded to collect data for all service industries, capturing 55 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). The 2011 Service Annual Survey provides another year of estimates that can used to evaluate the performance of service sectors after the most recent recession."

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    * IMF - Income Mobility and Welfare

    Income Mobility and Welfare. Tom Krebs, Pravin Krishna, William Maloney. January 28, 2013

  • "This paper develops a framework for the quantitative analysis of individual income dynamics, mobility and welfare. Individual income is assumed to follow a stochastic process with two (unobserved) components, an i.i.d. component representing measurement error or transitory income shocks and an AR(1) component representing persistent changes in income. We use a tractable consumption-saving model with labor income risk and incomplete markets to relate income dynamics to consumption and welfare, and derive analytical expressions for income mobility and welfare as a function of the various parameters of the underlying income process. The empirical application of our framework using data on individual incomes from Mexico provides striking results. Much of measured income mobility is driven by measurement error or transitory income shocks and therefore (almost) welfare-neutral. A smaller part of measured income mobility is due to either welfare-reducing income risk or welfare-enhancing catching-up of low-income individuals with high-income individuals, both of which have economically significant effects on social welfare. Decomposing mobility into its fundamental components is thus seen to be crucial from the standpoint of welfare evaluation."

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    * CRS - Can Contractionary Fiscal Policy Be Expansionary?

    Can Contractionary Fiscal Policy Be Expansionary? Jane G. Gravelle Senior Specialist in Economic Policy and Thomas L. Hungerford, Specialist in Public Finance. January 11, 2013

  • "Just as economists generally consider spending cuts to be contractionary in the short run in an underemployed economy, they believe that deficits can be harmful in the long run by crowding out private investment. There is considerable agreement that the continuation of current tax and spending policies will lead to an unsustainable path of the national debt, largely because of the growth of mandates arising from the aging of the population and the growth in health care costs. Thus, to most economists current macroeconomic policy challenges involve a trade-off between the benefits of starting to address the debt problem earlier versus risking damage to a still-fragile economy by engaging in contractionary fiscal policy, or failure to continue with expansionary fiscal policy."

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    * The Increase in Unemployment Since 2007: Is It Cyclical or Structural?

    The Increase in Unemployment Since 2007: Is It Cyclical or Structural? Linda Levine, Specialist in Labor Economics. January 24, 2013

  • "The unemployment rate greatly increased after the onset of the latest recession in December 2007, when it measured 5.0%. The rate peaked at 10.0% in October 2009, four months after the recession’s official end in June 2009. More than three years into the recovery, the unemployment rate averaged 8.1% in 2012. Given its still elevated level, policymakers may continue to be concerned about how to spur economic growth and create jobs. Over the past few years, Congress has used fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has used monetary policy to put the economy on a path toward the level of demand for goods and services that preceded the 2007-2009 recession. Firms react to recessions by laying off workers, and the deeper the downturn in the business cycle, the greater the rise in unemployment that results. Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies commonly have been used to remedy what is known as cyclical unemployment. The unemployment rate has not been as responsive as had been hoped to the countercyclical measures undertaken by Congress and the Fed. Consequently, some have suggested that an increase in another type of unemployment—referred to as structural unemployment—has accounted for much of the rise in the unemployment rate from pre-recession levels. These observers assert that the rise in unemployment due to change in the structure of the economy represents “a new normal” of elevated unemployment rates for years to come."

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    * The Federal Prison Population Buildup: Overview, Policy Changes, Issues, and Options

    CRS - The Federal Prison Population Buildup: Overview, Policy Changes, Issues, and Options. Nathan James, Analyst in Crime Policy. January 22, 2013

  • "Since the early 1980s, there has been a historically unprecedented increase in the federal prison population. Some of the growth is attributable to changes in federal criminal justice policy during the previous three decades. An issue before Congress is whether policymakers consider the rate of growth in the federal prison population sustainable, and if not, what changes could be made to federal criminal justice policy to reduce the prison population while maintaining public safety. This report explores the issues related to the growing federal prison population. The number of inmates under the Bureau of Prisons’ (BOP) jurisdiction has increased from approximately 25,000 in FY1980 to nearly 219,000 in FY2012. Since FY1980, the federal prison population has increased, on average, by approximately 6,100 inmates each year. Data show that a growing proportion of inmates are being incarcerated for immigration- and weapons-related offenses, but the largest portion of newly admitted inmates are being incarcerated for drug offenses. Data also show that approximately 7 in 10 inmates are sentenced for five years or less."

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    January 28, 2013
    * CDC - Tobacco Control State Highlights 2012 Released

    Tobacco Control State Highlights 2012

  • "Tobacco use is the single most preventable cause of death in the United States. Each year in the United States, cigarette smoking and exposure to secondhand smoke causes 443,000—or 1 in 5 deaths. Economic losses are also staggering. Smoking-caused diseases result in $96 billion in health care costs annually. Some states have significantly improved the health of their citizens by reducing smoking rates, thereby decreasing smoking-related diseases, deaths, and health care costs. Even in economically challenging times, states can make a significant difference in public health by employing high-impact, cost-effective tobacco control and prevention strategies as laid out in the World Health Organization’s MPOWER strategic package of interventions proven to reduce tobacco use prevalence."

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    * An Analysis of Where American Companies Report Profits: Indications of Profit Shifting

    CRS - An Analysis of Where American Companies Report Profits: Indications of Profit Shifting. Mark P. Keightley, Specialist in Economics, January 18, 2013

  • "This report uses data on the operations of U.S. multinational companies (MNCs) to examine the extent to which, if any, MNCs are moving profits out of high-tax countries (or out of the U.S.) and into low-tax countries with little corresponding change in business operations, a practice known as “profit shifting.” To do this, the profits reported by American firms in two groups of countries are compared with measures of real economic activity in those locations. The first group consists of the five countries commonly identified as being “tax preferred” or “tax haven” countries, and includes Bermuda, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. The second group, which provides a baseline for comparison, consists of five more traditional economies. This group includes Australia, Canada, Germany, Mexico, and the United Kingdom."

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    * Treasury Continues Approving Excessive Pay for Top Executives at Bailed-Out Companies

    Treasury Continues Approving Excessive Pay for Top Executives at Bailed-Out Companies, Office of the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, January 28, 2013.

  • "SIGTARP found that once again, in 2012, Treasury failed to rein in excessive pay. In 2012, OSM approved pay packages of $3 million or more for 54% of the 69 Top 25 employees at American International Group, Inc. (“AIG”), General Motors Corporation (“GM”), and Ally Financial Inc. (“Ally,” formerly General Motors Acceptance Corporation, Inc.) – 23% of these top executives (16 of 69) received Treasury-approved pay packages of $5 million or more, and 30% (21 of 69) received pay ranging from $3 million to $4.9 million. Treasury seemingly set a floor, awarding 2012 total pay of at least $1 million for all but one person. Even though OSM set guidelines aimed at curbing excessive pay, SIGTARP previously warned that Treasury lacked robust criteria, policies, and procedures to ensure those guidelines are met. Treasury made no meaningful reform to its processes. Absent robust criteria, policies, and procedures to ensure its guidelines were met, OSM’s decisions were largely driven by the pay proposals of the same companies that historically, and again in 2012, proposed excessive pay. With the companies exercising significant leverage, the Acting Special Master rolled back OSM’s application of guidelines aimed at curbing excessive pay."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * New GAO Reports: Pipeline Safety, Private Health Insurance
    Permanent Link
    * Corruption Perceptions Index 2012

    Corruption Perceptions Index 2012 - Transparency International

  • "Looking at the Corruption Perceptions Index 2012, it's clear that corruption is a major threat facing humanity. Corruption destroys lives and communities, and undermines countries and institutions. It generates popular anger that threatens to further destabilise societies and exacerbate violent conflicts. The Corruption Perceptions Index scores countries on a scale from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean). While no country has a perfect score, two-thirds of countries score below 50, indicating a serious corruption problem. Corruption translates into human suffering, with poor families being extorted for bribes to see doctors or to get access to clean drinking water. It leads to failure in the delivery of basic services like education or healthcare. It derails the building of essential infrastructure, as corrupt leaders skim funds."

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    * NOAA- State of the Climate National Overview Annual 2012

    Supplemental 2012 Temperature and Precipitation Information

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    January 27, 2013
    * Federal Reserve Board Annual Report 2011

    98th Report, 2011: Report on operations of the Board during the year. Provides minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings, financial statements of the Board and combined financial statements of the Reserve Banks, financial statements for Federal Reserve priced services, information on other services provided by the Reserve Banks, directories of Federal Reserve officials and advisory committees, statistical tables, and maps showing the System's District and Branch boundaries."

  • Related postings on financial system

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    * FRASER Digital Collection on Government Debt

    "Government debt is the debt owed by the United States government, and is money borrowed through government securities and federal government agencies. U.S. public debt comes from debt held by the public and debt held by government accounts. This debt has a limit on the total amount of bonds that can be issued, known as the debt ceiling. Documents on debt ceiling increases can be found in this collection as can speeches and hearings on or referring to the federal government debt. Economic reports of the president can also be found in this collection, which is an annual report written by the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers."

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    * FBI Records Update: Attempted Assassination of President Ronald Reagan

    "On March 31, 1981, John W. Hinckley, Jr., shot President Ronald Reagan and several others in a failed assassination attempt. The FBI conducted an extensive investigation, named REAGAT. This FOIA release consists of an extensive “Prosecutive Report” submitted by the FBI to the Department of Justice in May 1981 as Justice lawyers considered how to prosecute Hinckley for the attacks."

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    * Global Security Contingency Fund: Summary and Issue Overview

    CRS - Global Security Contingency Fund: Summary and Issue Overview. Nina M. Serafino, Specialist in International Security Affairs, January 22, 2013

  • "The FY2012 National Defense Authorization Act (P.L. 112-81), Section 1207, created a new Global Security Contingency Fund (GSCF) as a four-year pilot project to be jointly administered and funded by the Department of Defense (DOD) and the State Department. The purpose of the fund is to carry out security and counterterrorism training, and rule of law programs. (There also are three one-year transitional authorities for assistance to Africa and Yemen.) The GSCF is placed under the State Department budget. Although decisions are to be jointly made by the Secretaries of State and Defense, the mandated mechanism puts the Secretary of State in the lead...The Secretary of State has designated seven countries as eligible for this assistance: Nigeria, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Libya, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. The Administration must notify congressional committees with detailed program plans before the programs can begin."

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    * Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms The Case of Italy

    IMF - Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms The Case of Italy, Lusine Lusinyan and Dirk Muir. January 24, 2013

  • "Wide-ranging structural reforms are underway in Italy, aimed at addressing key bottlenecks in the product and labor markets. Our analysis, based on the IMF‘s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), attempts to quantify the potential gains to the economy from a comprehensive package of structural reforms. We find that these gains can be sizeable. While in most cases, the reforms go in the right direction, their impact would depend on effective and timely implementation. In some areas, especially in the labor market, reforms would benefit from further strengthening. The priorities should be to strengthen competition in the non-tradable sector and make the labor market more efficient and inclusive, supported by growth-friendly fiscal reforms."
  • Related postings on financial system

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    * Receipt of Unemployment Insurance by Higher-Income Unemployed Workers

    CRS - Receipt of Unemployment Insurance by Higher-Income Unemployed Workers (“Millionaires”). Donald Hirasuna, Analyst in Labor Policy, January 23, 2013

  • To inform the ongoing policy debate, this report provides information relevant to proposals that would restrict the payment of unemployment benefits to individuals with high incomes. Three primary areas that may be of interest to lawmakers are addressed: (1) the current U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) opinion on means-testing UI benefits; (2) the potential number of people who would be affected by such proposals; and (3) policy considerations such as the potential savings associated with such proposals, particularly in terms of federal expenditures. The latter two issues are discussed because a small percentage (approximately 0.02%) of tax filers receiving unemployment benefit income had AGI of $1 million or more in tax year 2009 based on Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data."

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    * Tax Havens: International Tax Avoidance and Evasion

    CRS - Tax Havens: International Tax Avoidance and Evasion. Jane G. Gravelle, Senior Specialist in Economic Policy, January 23, 2013

  • "Multinational firms can artificially shift profits from high-tax to low-tax jurisdictions using a variety of techniques, such as shifting debt to high-tax jurisdictions. Since tax on the income of foreign subsidiaries (except for certain passive income) is deferred until repatriated, this income can avoid current U.S. taxes and perhaps do so indefinitely. The taxation of passive income (called Subpart F income) has been reduced, perhaps significantly, through the use of “hybrid entities” that are treated differently in different jurisdictions. The use of hybrid entities was greatly expanded by a new regulation (termed “check-the-box”) introduced in the late 1990s that had unintended consequences for foreign firms. In addition, earnings from income that is taxed can often be shielded by foreign tax credits on other income. On average very little tax is paid on the foreign source income of U.S. firms. Ample evidence of a significant amount of profit shifting exists, but the revenue cost estimates vary from about $10 billion to $60 billion per year."

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    * America's Children and the Environment, Third Edition

    "America’s Children and the Environment, Third Edition; Appendices to the Report (data tables, metadata, alignment of ACE3 indicators with Healthy People 2020 objectives) is an EPA report that presents key information on environmental stressors that can affect children’s health. In January 2013, EPA released an updated third edition of this report (ACE3) that shows the status and trends of:

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    * UK - Recession hits workplaces, but not employee attitudes

    National Institute of Economic and Social Research: "According to the latest Workplace Employment Relations Study, the recession has had a profound impact on Britain's workplaces. In many workplaces, managers have responded with changes in their staffing practices, with one third (33%) of employees seeing their wages frozen or cut and 29% seeing their workload increased. While these manifestations of labour market flexibility obviously are bad news for workers, they may have helped avert even worse outcomes – only 14% of workplaces made compulsory redundancies. This might account for continued high levels of job satisfaction, which have actually risen since the survey was last conducted in 2004."

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    January 26, 2013
    * CDT: Feds Boost Privacy Protections for Medical Records

    CDT: "The privacy protections guarding the care and handling of your medical records just got stronger… a lot stronger. The new rules bolster prohibitions against use of a patient's medical records without consent for marketing communications; extend federal privacy and security protections to contractors (and subcontractors) of doctors, hospitals and insurers; improved your right to be notified when your medical records are lost, stolen or otherwise compromised; and clarifies your right to receive a copy of your medical records when you ask for it. The new protections stem from the long-awaited final regulations to implement most of the improvements to federal health privacy protections enacted by Congress in the HITECH provisions of the 2009 economic stimulus legislation."

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    * Working Group on the Use of Chimpanzees in NIH-Supported Research Report

    Council of Councils Working Group on the Use of Chimpanzees in NIH-Supported Research Report, January 2013

  • "This report summarizes the findings and recommendations of the Working Group on the Use of Chimpanzees in National Institutes of Health (NIH)-Supported Research. The NIH formed this committee within the Council of Councils, a federal advisory committee, to advise the NIH on the implementation of the recommendations of the Institute of Medicine’s (IOM’s) Committee on the Use of Chimpanzees in Biomedical and Behavioral Research regarding the use of chimpanzees in NIH-sponsored research. In December 2010, the NIH asked the IOM to review the current use of chimpanzees in NIH-funded biomedical and behavioral research that is needed to advance the public’s health. The IOM committee focused its efforts on the nearly 700 chimpanzees owned or otherwise supported by the NIH. In December 2011, the IOM committee completed its review, concluding that although the chimpanzee has been a valuable animal model in the past, most current biomedical use of chimpanzees is unnecessary. At the same time, the IOM committee concluded that chimpanzees could still serve an important role in some areas of research but in these areas, the research must be governed by a set of principles and criteria. These principles and criteria address the necessity of the research for answering important public health questions, the need to use the chimpanzee model to answer these questions, and whether the chimpanzee-housing and the research conditions are appropriate for humans’ closest relative."

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    January 25, 2013
    * Sustainable Health Systems - Visions, Strategies, Critical Uncertainties and Scenarios

    Sustainable Health Systems - Visions, Strategies, Critical Uncertainties and Scenarios. Healthcare Industry 2013. January 2013 A report from the World Economic Forum, Prepared in collaboration with McKinsey & Company.

  • "The World Economic Forum has made health a priority global initiative, recognizing it as central to the Forum’s overall mission to improve the state of the world. Looking at health as a fundamental economic issue, the Forum aims to address two major gaps-access to health and access to care - making health and care an investment for economic development and growth.

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    * CBO - Refundable Tax Credits

    Refundable Tax Credits, January 25, 2013

  • "The U.S. tax code contains many preferences that lower or eliminate the amount of taxes owed. Those preferences include deductions, exclusions, and tax credits, which can be either refundable or nonrefundable. Refundable tax credits differ from other preferences in a significant way: Whereas other preferences reduce the amount of taxes owed to the government, refundable credits can result in net payments from the government. Specifically, if the amount of a refundable tax credit exceeds a filer’s tax liability before that credit is applied, the government pays the excess to that person or business. In the federal budget, the portion of refundable credits that reduces the amount of taxes owed is counted as a reduction in revenues, and the portion that exceeds people’s tax liabilities is treated as an outlay; the total federal cost is the sum of those two components."

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    * What is the Federal Debt and How Does the Debt Limit Work?

    "At the end of fiscal year 2011, the federal debt totaled $14.8 trillion. The debt limit determines when the U.S. Department of Treasury can or cannot borrow money to cover the country's debts. Learn more about the federal debt and the debt limit in Federal Debt 101."

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    * Report Reveals Further Reduction in Veterans Homelessness

    "The Departments of Veterans Affairs and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) today announced that a new national report shows that homelessness among Veterans has been reduced by approximately 7 percent between January 2011 and January 2012. The decline keeps the Obama Administration on track to meet the goal of ending Veteran homelessness in 2015...The 2012 Annual Homeless Assessment Report (AHAR) to Congress, prepared by HUD, estimates there were 62,619 homeless Veterans on a single night in January in the United States, a 7.2 percent decline since 2011 and a 17.2 percent decline since 2009. The AHAR reports on the extent and nature of homelessness in America. Included in the report is the annual Point-in-Time (PIT) count, which measures the number of homeless persons in the U.S. on a single night in January 2012, including the number of homeless Veterans."

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    * The Future Role of Civil Society

    World Economic Forum - The Future Role of Civil Society, January 2013

  • "This report is the synthesis of insights gained from engaging more than 200 leaders from civil society, business, government and international organizations, and includes data from 80 expert interviews and five strategic foresight workshops. It is aimed at two groups of stakeholders: civil society leaders who wish to explore the evolving roles that they may play given future changes in economic, political, social, technological and environmental systems; and leaders from business, government and international organizations who are keen to engage more closely with civil society stakeholders, and who wish to appreciate the challenges and opportunities surrounding their activities in light of these important drivers of change."

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    * World Economic Forum - Rebuilding Europe’s Competitiveness

    Rebuilding Europe’s Competitiveness, January 2013

  • "Europe’s competitiveness deficit, together with the competitiveness divide that has developed within its own borders, has jointly led to stagnation or declining growth, rising unemployment and fiscal instability. With a series of reforms under way and more yet to come, Rebuilding Europe’s Competitiveness highlights five key enablers that will be pivotal to making these measures work. These are: strong collaboration across stakeholders, political consistency, political leadership, sense of urgency as well as strong and clear communication plans. The Report shows that, when rebuilding its competitiveness, Europe can preserve its core values of partnership and social inclusion."

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    January 24, 2013
    * Office of Financial Research (OFR) Working Paper - CoCos, Bail-In, and Tail Risk

    CoCos, Bail-In, and Tail Risk, by Nan Chen, Paul Glasserman, Behzad Nouri and Markus Pelger

  • "Contingent convertibles (CoCos) and bail-in debt for banks have been proposed as potential mechanisms to enhance financial stability. They function by converting to equity when a bank approaches insolvency. We develop a capital structure model to analyze the incentives created by these forms of contingent capital. Our formulation includes firm-specific and market-wide tail risk in the form of two types of jumps and leads to a tractable jump diffusion model of the firm’s income and asset value. The firm’s liabilities include insured deposits and senior and subordinated debt, as well as convertible debt. Our model combines endogenous default, debt rollover, and jumps; these features are essential in examining how changes in capital structure to include CoCos or bail-in debt change incentives for equity holders. We derive closed-form expressions to value the firm and its liabilities, and we use these to investigate how CoCos affect debt overhang, asset substitution, the firm’s ability to absorb losses, the sensitivity of equity holders to various types of risk, and how these properties interact with the firm’s debt maturity profile, the tax treatment of CoCo coupons, and the pricing of deposit insurance. We examine the effects of varying the two main design features of CoCos, the conversion trigger and the conversion ratio, and we compare the effects of CoCos with the effects of reduced bankruptcy costs through orderly resolution."
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    * Redacted version of DNI Congressional Budget Justification Book for Fiscal Year 2009

    Via Secrecy News: "The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has released a heavily redacted version of its Congressional Budget Justification Book for Fiscal Year 2009 in response to a request under the Freedom of Information Act. Although most of the substance of the document has been withheld, a number of details of interest (to some) have been preserved. So, for example, the glossary explains that "CAPNet is a secure private network permitting electronic connectivity between the Legislative Branch of the Federal Government, principally the intelligence oversight committees, and certain intelligence community personnel, primarily in the legislative liaison offices."

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    * Bank Liquidity Hoarding and the Financial Crisis: An Empirical Evaluation

    Bank Liquidity Hoarding and the Financial Crisis: An Empirical Evaluation, Jose Berrospide, 2013-03

  • "I test and nd supporting evidence for the precautionary motive hypothesis of liquidity hoarding for U.S. commercial banks during the recent nancial crisis. I fi nd that banks held more liquid assets in anticipation of future losses from securities write-downs. Exposure to securities losses in their investment portfolios and expected loan losses (measured by loan loss reserves) represent key measures of banks' on-balance sheet risks, in addition to o -balance sheet liquidity risk stemming from unused loan commitments. Furthermore, unrealized securities losses and loan loss reserves seem to better capture the risks stemming from banks' asset management and provide supporting evidence for the precautionary nature of liquidity hoarding. Moreover, I find that more than one-fourth of the reduction in bank lending during the crisis is due to the precautionary motive."
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    * Generosity in Canada and the United States: The 2012 Generosity Index

    Generosity in Canada and the United States - 2012 Generosity Index

  • "The Generosity Index measures private monetary generosity using two key indicators. The percentage of tax filers who donated to charity indicates the extent of generosity, while the percentage of aggregate personal income donated to charity indicates the depth of charitable giving. The jurisdictions included in the index are the 10 Canadian provinces and three territories, the 50 US states, and Washington, DC. The data used are from the 2010 tax year—the most recent year for which data are available for both Canada and the United States. The data collected for the Generosity Index show stark differences in charitable giving among the Canadian provinces and territories, as well as between Canada and the United States. Manitoba had the highest percentage of tax filers who donated to charity (26.2%) among the provinces. Prince Edward Island and Saskatchewan tied for second place (25.2%). The provinces with the lowest percentage of tax filers donating to charity are Newfoundland & Labrador (21.1%) and New Brunswick (21.3%). In the United States, the extent of generosity is over three percentage points higher: 26.7% of US tax filers donate to charity compared to 23.3% of Canadians. The gap between these two countries widens when considering the depth of the generosity of each. In 2010, Americans gave 1.38% of their aggregate income to charity. This rate of giving is more than double that of Canadians, who gave 0.66% of aggregate income to charity in 2010."

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    * Global Burden of Disease: Massive shifts reshape the health landscape worldwide

    Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation: "Globally, health advances present most people with a devastating irony: avoid premature death but live longer and sicker. That’s one of the main findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), a collaborative project led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The findings [were] announced at the Royal Society in London on Dec. 14 and published in The Lancet, the first time the journal has dedicated an entire triple issue to one study. The seven scientific papers and accompanying commentaries provide a new platform for assessing the world’s biggest health challenges, and then finding the best ways to address them."

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    January 23, 2013
    * Census Bureau Reports Fast Growth in Ph.D.s and Master's Degree Holders

    "From 2002 to 2012, the highest rate of increases in education attainment levels were doctorate and master's degrees, according to new statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau. The population with a doctorate grew by about 1 million, or 45 percent, while those who held a master's climbed by 5 million, or 43 percent. Meanwhile, the population with an associate degree rose by 5 million, or 31 percent. Those whose highest degree was a bachelor's degree grew at a smaller rate: 25 percent to 41 million. Meanwhile, the number of those without a high school or GED diploma declined by 13 percent, falling to 25 million. The rates of increase for doctorate and master's holders were not significantly different from one another. The statistics come from Educational Attainment in the United States: 2012, a series of national-level tables showing attainment levels by a wide range of demographic characteristics, including sex, race, Hispanic origin, marital status, household relationship, citizenship and nativity, labor force status, occupation and industry. Also included are detailed information on years of school completed, showing for each level of attainment exactly how many years of education adults have. A variety of historical time series tables going back to 1940 are also provided, as are graphs illustrating historical data."

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    * Briefing, Survey Examine 2013 Data From 50-State Survey of Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility and Enrollment Policies

    "Following the Supreme Court ruling upholding the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and as 2014 approaches, many states are moving into high gear to prepare for implementation of the major provisions of the law, including a new streamlined Medicaid enrollment system and, at states' option, the expansion of Medicaid. Nearly all states are pressing forward with information technology and process improvements to develop faster, streamlined Medicaid enrollment systems as required under the ACA, whether or not the state elects to expand Medicaid coverage under the law. These and other findings appear in the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured report, Getting into Gear for 2014: Findings From a 50-State Survey of Eligibility, Enrollment, Renewal and Cost-Sharing Policies in Medicaid and CHIP, 2012-2013, the product of a comprehensive annual survey conducted with the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families. A second report released at the briefing highlights the experiences of some previously uninsured people who obtained Medicaid coverage in states that opted to serve the newly eligible population before 2014."

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    * New GAO Reports: Acquisition Workforce, Protecting Defense Technologies, Financial Regulatory Reform, Pipeline Safety
    * World Economic Outlook Update Gradual Upturn in Global Growth During 2013

    World Economic Outlook Update - Gradual Upturn in Global Growth During 2013

  • "Global growth is projected to increase during 2013, as the factors underlying soft global activity are expected to subside. However, this upturn is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections. Policy actions have lowered acute crisis risks in the euro area and the United States. But in the euro area, the return to recovery after a protracted contraction is delayed. While Japan has slid into recession, stimulus is expected to boost growth in the near term. At the same time, policies have supported a modest growth pickup in some emerging market economies, although others continue to struggle with weak external demand and domestic bottlenecks. If crisis risks do not materialize and financial conditions continue to improve, global growth could be stronger than projected. However, downside risks remain significant, including renewed setbacks in the euro area and risks of excessive near-term fiscal consolidation in the United States. Policy action must urgently address these risks."

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    * Library Adds Congressional Record, CBO Cost Estimates to Congress.gov Beta Website

    News release: "The Library of Congress today is adding the Congressional Record, published by the Government Printing Office (GPO), and cost-estimate reports from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to its Congress.gov beta website, a public site for accessing free, fact-based legislative information. The additions will supplement bills, bill summaries, Member profiles and legislative history information already available on the site. Launched in September 2012, Congress.gov features platform mobility, comprehensive information retrieval and user-friendly presentation. Congress.gov eventually will replace the public THOMAS system and the congressional Legislative Information System (LIS)...All bills from 2001 through the present that have a CBO Cost Estimate will now include a "CBO Cost Estimate" link to the right of the Overview section on the legislative detail page. This will open a pop-up that displays a list of associated CBO Cost Estimates, with a link to the CBO page displaying that report."

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    * Commercial Real Estate Rental Index: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Estimation

    An, Xudong, Deng, Yongheng , Fisher, Jeffrey D. and Hu, Maggie Rong, Commercial Real Estate Rental Index: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Estimation (November 1, 2012). Available at SSRN

  • "Based on the quarterly actual rental income of over 9,000 NCREIF commercial properties during 2001Q2-2010Q2, we construct a commercial real estate rental index using a dynamic panel data model. The rental index we construct captures the market-wide fluctuations in rental income, and our model estimates show that market-wide rent growth is mean-reverting and older properties tend to have consistently lower rent growth. We also provide a new measure of rental income risk, which is the volatility of the rental index we estimate from our model. In addition, our model provides additional tools for rent growth prediction. In contrast to the existing literature, we find a strong negative relation between cap rate and our rent growth estimate, consistent with theoretical predictions. Moreover, our rent growth estimate, together with mortgage interest rate and availability of financing, explains 85% of the cap rate variations during our study period."

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    * Quantifying the Behavior of Stock Correlations Under Market Stress

    Preis, Tobias, Kenett, Dror Y., Stanley, H. Eugene, Helbing, Dirk and Ben-Jacob, Eshel, Quantifying the Behavior of Stock Correlations Under Market Stress (2012). Scientific Reports, Vol. 2, 2012, DOI:10.1038/srep00752. Available at SSRN

  • "Understanding correlations in complex systems is crucial in the face of turbulence, such as the ongoing financial crisis. However, in complex systems, such as financial systems, correlations are not constant but instead vary in time. Here we address the question of quantifying state-dependent correlations in stock markets. Reliable estimates of correlations are absolutely necessary to protect a portfolio. We analyze 72 years of daily closing prices of the 30 stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We find the striking result that the average correlation among these stocks scales linearly with market stress reflected by normalized DJIA index returns on various time scales. Consequently, the diversification effect which should protect a portfolio melts away in times of market losses, just when it would most urgently be needed. Our empirical analysis is consistent with the interesting possibility that one could anticipate diversification breakdowns, guiding the design of protected portfolios."

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    * International Budget Partnership - Open Budget Survey

    "The Open Budget Survey is a comprehensive analysis and survey that evaluates whether governments give the public access to budget information and opportunities to participate in the budget process at the national level. The Survey also assesses the capacity and independence of formal oversight institutions. The IBP works with civil society partners in 100 countries to collect the data for the Survey...The Open Budget Index allows for comparisons among countries and across years."

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    January 22, 2013
    * Administration of Barack Obama, 2013 Inaugural Address, January 21, 2013

    Administration of Barack Obama, 2013. Inaugural Address, January 21, 2013

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    * New GAO Reports - Federal Rulemaking, DOE, IT Implementation, Pension Costs on DOD Contracts
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    * Texas has largest over-the-year employment increase; Nevada has largest unemployment rate decrease

    BLS - "Over the year, 30 states experienced statistically significant changes in employment. The largest over-the-year jobs increase occurred in Texas, where employment increased from 10,643,200 to 10,904,000 from December 2011 to December 2012 (a change of +260,800), followed by California (+225,900) and New York (+123,600). Only West Virginia’s employment decreased (-13,900)."

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    * Preliminary international banking statistics at end-September 2012

    "Statistics at end-September 2012 are preliminary and subject to change. Large movements in the latest data are highlighted in the Statistical release. Data are available via the BIS WebStats query tool, in PDF and CSV files on the BIS website (locational and consolidated), and as a single PDF file in detailed annex tables. Final statistics, with an analysis of recent trends, will be released in conjunction with the forthcoming BIS Quarterly Review, to be published on 18 March 2013. Data at end-December 2012 will be released no later than 25 April 2013. For the first time, the BIS is releasing consolidated banking statistics for Korean banks. The addition of Korea brings the number of countries contributing to the consolidated banking statistics on an immediate borrower basis to 31. The foreign claims of banks headquartered in Korea stood at $121 billion at end-September 2012, comparable in size to the foreign claims of Brazilian banks ($98 billion) and Portuguese banks ($123 billion). Roughly half of Korean banks' foreign claims were on counterparties in the Asia-Pacific region, led by borrowers in China, Hong Kong SAR and Japan. Among BIS reporting banks at end-September 2012, Korean banks were the largest creditors to Cambodia and Uzbekistan and the second largest to Vietnam."

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    * Planning, Connecting, and Financing Cities – Now: Priorities for City Leaders

    "Rapid urbanization can hold long-term economic, social and environmental promise for developing countries if investments made now in infrastructure, housing and public services are efficient and sustainable, the World Bank says in a new report Planning, Connecting, and Financing Cities – Now: Priorities for City Leaders...In the next two decades, cities are expected to expand by another two billion residents, as people move in unprecedented numbers from rural areas to pursue hopes and aspirations in cities. More than 90 percent of this urban population growth is expected to occur in the developing world, where many cities are already struggling to provide basic needs such as water, electricity, transport, health services and education."

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    * Income Inequality and Market Fragility: Some Empirics in the Political Economy of Finance

    Hockett, Robert C. and Dillon, Daniel, Income Inequality and Market Fragility: Some Empirics in the Political Economy of Finance (January 21, 2013). Available at SSRN

  • "In a modern market economy with a developed financial sector, one would expect the Keynes-Kalecki update of the political economists’ crisis dynamic to work through the medium of ever more sophisticated consumer- and mortgage-debt products as well as associated derivative financial instruments. These would respond to both heightened investment demand at the top of the increasingly skewed distribution, and heightened borrowing needs under the top of the distribution. One would also expect leverage-fueled asset price bubbles and busts and their debt-deflationary sequels to be larger and longer, respectively, than in times past, owing to mortgage debt’s tending to lengthen the leverage cycle.
    Using autoregressive filtering, time-lagged cross-correlations, and cognate statistical methods on large sets of data that include income inequality and debt trends, consumption and price indices, current account balances and other indicators of macroeconomic performance, we find strong support for the proposition that our “financialized” rendition of the Keynes-Kalecki-supplemented political economists’ crisis dynamic links significant income and wealth inequality to market fragility. This goes a long way toward explaining, among other things, a remarkably rich set of parallels that we find between the paired inequality and market calamity of 1928-29 on the one hand, and that of 2008-09 on the other hand. Our results also bear implications for the project of financial regulation. While gathering income and wealth inequality do not render that project futile, they do seem, ironically, to render it simultaneously more urgent and more difficult."
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