Pentagon Wants to Predict Terrorist Activity With Market Methodology-But Program Abruptly Cancelled

by Sabrina I. Pacifici on July 29, 2003

Talk about a fast resolution: This program, about which I posted very early this morning, has been cancelled due to the uproar on Capitol Hill. See below for details.

  • According to AP, the Pentagon’s DARPA division has a website called FutureMap (Futures Markets Applied to Prediction), describing a progam for predicting the probably of terrorist attacks using online futures trading market-based contracts.
  • See the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) website (currenly offline) description of this concept, as well as this New York Times article, which indicates players would establish accounts to gamble on the likely outcome of future events in hotspot regions.
  • See also DARPA and the Futures Market, floor statement of Sen. Dorgan, July 28.
  • From the July 28 press release by Sen. Wyden: Wyden, Dorgan Call For Immediate Halt to Tax-Funded “Terror Market” Scheme Defense Department program sells “futures” in possible terrorist attacks; offers profit potential to anonymous bidders if catastrophic events occur.
  • Posted in E-Government

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