Predicting the Outcome of Supreme Court Cases

by Sabrina I. Pacifici on October 23, 2003

The Supreme Court Forecasting Project, from Washington University in St. Louis, consists of a computer model that was used to predict the votes of the judges for each pending case of the 2001-2002 term. These forecasts were juxtaposed with those made by an expert panel of “law professors or appellate practitioners who specialize in one or more areas of the Supreme Court’s docket.”

  • “For the 2003 term, we are providing real time statistical forecasts based on a statistical model updated with the cases decided during the 2002 term. Anyone can use the Forecasting Engine to obtain model-based forecasts for cases of interest. For each case, we will be posting our forecasts (obtained using the engine) as well as the final decisions as they are reached. We also will post the manner in which we coded the variables on which the forecasts are based.”
  • Posted in Courts

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