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The Economic Effects of the President’s 2015 Budget

“Each year, after the President releases his budget request, CBO analyzes the proposals in that request. Using its own economic projections and estimating procedures, CBO projects what the federal budget would look like over the next 10 years if the President’s proposals were adopted. CBO usually provides that information in two reports: The first examines the proposals’ effects on the budget but generally does not incorporate their effects on the U.S. economy. However, this year’s version of that budgetary analysis, which was published on April 17, included some of the macroeconomic effects of the proposals—specifically, some of the effects of the President’s proposal to alter laws related to immigration. The second report, which takes more time to prepare, shows the effects that all of the President’s proposals would have on the economy and, in turn, the implications of those macroeconomic effects for the budget. CBO has now completed that analysis, and this report describes the results. With only some of the macroeconomic effects included, CBO estimated in its earlier report that the President’s proposals would cause the federal budget deficit to equal about $500 billion in fiscal years 2014 and 2015 and larger amounts in later years, ranging between about $700 billion and $800 billion from 2020 to 2024 (the second half of the 10-year projection period). Starting in 2017, those projected deficits are smaller than the ones that would occur under current law, as estimated in CBO’s baseline (a projection of the paths that federal revenues and spending would take over the next decade if current laws generally remained unchanged). Deficits would total $6.6 trillion between 2015 and 2024 under the President’s proposals—$1.0 trillion less than the cumulative deficit for that period in CBO’s baseline.”

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