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Monthly Budget Review for June 2014

“The federal government ran a budget deficit of $366 billion for the first nine months of fiscal year 2014, CBO estimates—$144 billion less than the shortfall recorded over the same span last year. Through the end of June, revenues were about 8 percent higher and outlays were about 1 percent higher than they were at the same point last year. Receipts for the first nine months of fiscal year 2014 totaled $2,259 billion, CBO estimates—$172 billion more than receipts in the same period last year. The largest increases were the following:

  • Individual income taxes and social insurance (payroll) taxes together rose by $123 billion, or 7 percent.
    • Increases in amounts withheld from workers’ paychecks—$97 billion (or 7 percent)—accounted for most of that gain. Growth in wages and salaries and changes in law were mostly responsible for the difference. In particular, the tax rates in effect from October 2013 through December 2013 (the first quarter of fiscal year 2014) were higher than those in effect from October 2012 through December 2012 as a result of two changes that took effect in January 2013: the expiration of the 2 percentage-point payroll tax cut and an increase in tax rates for income above certain thresholds.
    • Nonwithheld receipts rose by $28 billion (or 7 percent), because of payments made for the 2013 and 2014 tax years. Income tax refunds rose by $1 billion (or 1 percent), slightly offsetting those increases.
  • Receipts from corporate income taxes rose by $29 billion (or 14 percent), probably because of growth in taxable profits in calendar years 2013 and 2014. Receipts from April through June—largely representing corporations’ first two quarterly estimated tax payments for the 2014 tax year—increased by about $12 billion (or 11 percent).
  • Receipts from the Federal Reserve rose by $18 billion, or 32 percent. The increase was attributable in part to the larger size of the central bank’s portfolio of securities and to a higher yield on that portfolio. Almost all gains occurred from January through June.”

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