What the Unemployment Rate Signals on the Economy Unemployment, Macroeconomics, U.S. Economy, Rebecca M. Blank, Visiting Fellow, Economic Studies, The Brookings Institution.
“First, the American work force is aging as the baby boom bulge moves into their 50s. This demographic shift lowers overall unemployment rates because older workers are more stably employed and have less unemployment. If you compare the current unemployment rates by age group with equivalent rates in July 1990 the first month of the 1990-91 recessionit turns out that unemployment rates are as high or higher among virtually every age group in 2008. Yet overall unemployment in March 2008 was 5.1 percent, still lower than the 5.5 percent in July 1990. This is because the share of the population in the high-unemployment (younger) groups has fallen, while its risen in the lower unemployment (older) groups. But any worker who looks around at others in her age group will find unemployment is as high as in past periods.”
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