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Category Archives: Economy

IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2019

A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks

  • “The global expansion has weakened. Global growth for 2018 is estimated at 3.7 percent, as in the October 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, despite weaker performance in some economies, notably Europe and Asia. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections.
  • The global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 had already been revised downward in the last WEO, partly because of the negative effects of tariff increases enacted in the United States and China earlier that year. The further downward revision since October in part reflects carry over from softer momentum in the second half of 2018—including in Germany following the introduction of new automobile fuel emission standards and in Italy where concerns about sovereign and financial risks have weighed on domestic demand—but also weakening financial market sentiment as well as a contraction in Turkey now projected to be deeper than anticipated.
  • Risks to global growth tilt to the downside. An escalation of trade tensions beyond those already incorporated in the forecast remains a key source of risk to the outlook. Financial conditions have already tightened since the fall. A range of triggers beyond escalating trade tensions could spark a further deterioration in risk sentiment with adverse growth implications, especially given the high levels of public and private debt. These potential triggers include a “no-deal” withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union and a greater-than-envisaged slowdown in China.
  • The main shared policy priority is for countries to resolve cooperatively and quickly their trade disagreements and the resulting policy uncertainty, rather than raising harmful barriers further and destabilizing an already slowing global economy. Across all economies, measures to boost potential output growth, enhance inclusiveness, and strengthen fiscal and financial buffers in an environment of high debt burdens and tighter financial conditions are imperatives.”

Copyright Office Releases “Copyright and Visual Works: The Legal Landscape of Opportunities and Challenges”

“The U.S. Copyright Office has submitted a letter to Congress detailing the results of the Office’s public inquiry on how certain visual works, particularly photographs, graphic artworks, and illustrations, are registered, monetized, and enforced under the Copyright Act of 1976. The Office sought commentary on the marketplace for these visual works, as well as observations… Continue Reading

Shutdown Hits Industries Nationwide

WSJ.com [paywall]: “The partial government shutdown is affecting a wide range of business and financial concerns nationwide. From a report: Shuttered government offices are stalling the approval of new loans, initial public offerings, the processing of tax documents, and the approval of new products such as prescription drugs, among other effects. While some programs are… Continue Reading

Thieves of Experience: How Google and Facebook Corrupted Capitalism

Los Angeles Review of Books – Nicholas Carr’s review of The Age of Surveillance Capitalism – The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power By Shoshana Zuboff To the Googles and Facebooks of the world, we are neither the customer nor the product. We are the source of what Silicon Valley… Continue Reading

2018 Index of Economic Freedom

“For much of human history, most individuals have lacked economic freedom and opportunity, condemning them to poverty and deprivation. Today, we live in the most prosperous time in human history. Poverty, sicknesses, and ignorance are receding throughout the world, due in large part to the advance of economic freedom. In 2018, the principles of economic… Continue Reading

EU At a Glance – Financial Supervision and Regulation in the US

AT A GLANCE Requested by the ECON committee Study in focus Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies Directorate-General for Internal Policies. Author: S. HONNEFELDER, P. DELGADO CUBILLO PE 631.031 – January 2019 EN Financial Supervision and Regulation in the US – “In response to the financial crisis of 2008 and the… Continue Reading

CRS Series: Introduction to Financial Services

EveryCRSReport.com: CRS Series: Introduction to Financial Services, January 11, 2019 IN11016 – “The Congressional Research Service (CRS) has created a series providing an introduction to various financial services issues in the 116th Congress. Click on any of the titles below to access an In Focus, a two-page briefing product on issues of active and ongoing… Continue Reading

IMF – The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters’ Survey Perspective

The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters’ Survey Perspective  Michal Andrle – January 16, 2018. “This paper presents and discusses the estimates of the present value of corporate profits in the United States from 1984 to 2018. To value the expected income stream, it uses the long-range forecasts of professional forecasters for pre-tax corporate earnings… Continue Reading

Changing world of work needs new jobs strategy

OECD: “Governments need to do more to help workers and firms adapt to the fast-changing world of work and drive inclusive growth, according to the new OECD Jobs Strategy. New evidence in the report reveals that countries that promote job quantity, quality and inclusiveness – such as Denmark, Iceland, Norway and Sweden – perform better… Continue Reading

8 Sci-Fi Writers Imagine the Bold and New Future of Work

Ready Set Go…Wired – “Half of being human, give or take, is the work we do. Pick up a shift. Care for the sick. Fix the plumbing. Audition for a part. Sometimes it’s all we think about—and fret about, especially as technology comes for our jobs. Just search “future of” and autocomplete does the rest:… Continue Reading

Federal Watchdog Finds Government Ignored Emoluments Clause With Trump Hotel

NPR: “Officials leasing the Old Post Office Building for the Trump International Hotel in Washington improperly ignored the Constitution’s anti-corruption clauses when they continued to lease the government property to President Trump even after he won the White House, according to an internal federal government watchdog. The Inspector General for the General Services Administration, the… Continue Reading

These 10 States Grow the Nation’s Organic Food

24/7 Wall St: “…The USDA reported in 2011 that 9,140 farms, comprising 3.65 million acres of U.S. farmland, were managed as certified organic, with about 55% (2.03 million acres) as cropland and the rest for pasture and ranchland. By 2016, certified organic acreage on 14,217 organic farms had increased to 5.02 million acres, of which… Continue Reading