EIA: Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2011

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2011, July 2011

  • “The Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies. The Reference case projection assumes trends that are consistent with historical and current market behavior, technological and demographic changes, and current laws and regulations. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards—or of sections of legislation that have been enacted but that require implementing regulations or appropriation of funds that are not provided or specified in the legislation itself—are not reflected in the projections.[1] Thus, the AEO Reference case provides an impartial baseline that can be used to analyze potential new policies or legislative initiatives. The analysis in the AEO primarily focuses on a Reference case, lower and higher economic growth cases, and lower and higher oil price cases. However, approximately 30 alternative cases are generally included in the AEO. Readers are encouraged to review the full range of cases, which address many of the uncertainties inherent in long-term projections.”
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