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Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under Age 65: 2016 to 2026

CBO – “The federal government subsidizes health insurance for most Americans through a variety of federal programs and tax preferences. In 2016, those subsidies for people under age 65 will total more than $600 billion, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate. (The government also bears significant costs for health insurance for people 65 or older, mostly through Medicare and Medicaid.) In preparing the March 2016 baseline budget projections, CBO and JCT updated their estimates of the number of people under age 65 who have health insurance from various sources as well as their projections of the federal subsidies associated with that coverage. Those projections encompass a broad set of budgetary effects that operate under current law, including the effects of providing preferential tax treatment for employment-based coverage, costs for providing Medicaid coverage to people under age 65, and payments stemming directly from the Affordable Care Act (ACA). In this report, CBO and JCT also present estimates that focus only on those changes in coverage and federal deficits that stem from the ACA’s major provisions related to health insurance coverage. How Many People Under Age 65 Are Projected to Have Health Insurance? By CBO and JCT’s estimates, an average of about 244 million noninstitutionalized residents of the United States under age 65 will have health insurance in any given month in 2016. Almost two-thirds of them will obtain coverage through an employer, and about a quarter will be enrolled in Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP). A smaller number will have nongroup coverage that they purchase either through or outside one of the health insurance marketplaces (previously referred to as exchanges in CBO’s publications) established under the ACA or coverage that is provided by Medicare or through various other sources. On average, about 27 million people under age 65—10 percent of that population—will be uninsured in 2016, CBO and JCT estimate…”

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