Economist Intelligence Unit: Will the Arab risings yield democracy, dictatorship or disorder?

Spring Tide – Will the Arab Risings yield democracy, dictatorship or disorder?, A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit. June 2011

  • “We set out below our short-term economic forecasts for Arab countries. There are also implications for economic policy. Policies of economic liberalisation are being criticised as a cover for corruption and as a cause of increased inequity. Will new governments conclude that the problem was with the way that these policies were carried out, or that the entire model was at fault? The question remains of whether political change could bring economic transformation to the Arab world over the longer term. This report looks at the economic performance of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a long-term historical comparison with other regions, and seeks explanations for its relatively poor performance. The factors that have held it back suggest that democratisation could yield a significant boost to long-term economic growth, and we apply some assumptions to our long-term economic model to 2050 to assess the potential growth dividend of a democratisation scenario.”
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