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Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Projections in AEO2014 are generated using the NEMS, developed and maintained by the Office of Energy Analysis of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition to its use in developing the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections, NEMS is used to complete analytical studies for the U.S. Congress, the Executive Office of the President, other offices within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other federal agencies. NEMS is also used by nongovernment groups, such as the Electric Power Research Institute, Duke University, and Georgia Institute of Technology. In addition, AEO projections are used by analysts and planners in other government agencies and nongovernmental organizations. The projections in NEMS are developed with the use of a market-based approach, subject to regulations and standards. For each fuel and consuming sector, NEMS balances energy supply and demand, accounting for economic competition across the various energy fuels and sources. The time horizon of NEMS extends to 2040. To represent regional differences in energy markets, the component modules of NEMS function at the regional level: the 9 Census divisions for the end-use demand modules; production regions specific to oil, natural gas, and coal supply and distribution; 22 regions and subregions of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation for electricity; and 9 refining regions within the 5 Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). Complete regional and detailed results are available on the EIA Analyses and Projections Home Page.

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