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Center for Naval Analyses – Estimating climate change effects on installation energy use

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Estimating climate change effects on installation energy use – Ronald Filadelfo • Jonathon Mintz • Daniel Carvell • Alan Marcus, May 1, 2012

  • “We downscaled large regional-scale climate change forecasts to forecasts of temperature change for the immediate areas of military installations. Based on these expected temperature changes, we estimated how installation energy demand for heating and cooling may change. We considered two climate change scenarios: the median and 75th percentile predicted temperature changes given in the
    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (FAR). We consider temperature change in 2040 relative to the 1995–2011 17-year mean. We examine four large DOD installations—one from each service and covering each of the three IPCC FAR predicted climate areas:

    • Tinker Air Force Base (AFB)
    • Naval Station (NAVSTA) Norfolk
    • Camp Pendleton
    • Fort Bragg”
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