CBO – “…The budget projections are based on CBO’s economic forecast, which reflects trade policy as of November 20, 2025, and economic developments and laws in place as of December 3, 2025. The budget projections also incorporate the effects of laws in place as of January 14, 2026. (CBO’s projections do not include the effects of appropriation acts passed by the House and Senate after January 14, 2026.) In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion and grows to $3.1 trillion by 2036. Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit is 5.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and grows to 6.7 percent in 2036, which is greater than the 3.8 percent deficits averaged over the past 50 years. Rising net interest costs drive much of that increase. The primary deficit, which excludes those net interest costs, totals 2.6 percent of GDP this year and stays below that level through 2036, when it totals 2.1 percent.

• From 2026 to 2036, large and growing deficits cause debt to increase. Federal debt held by the public rises from 101 percent of GDP this year to 120 percent in 2036, surpassing its previous high of 106 percent of GDP in 1946.