Declining Migration Within the US: The Role of the Labor Market
Declining Migration Within the US: The Role of the Labor Market, Raven Molloy, Christopher L. Smith, and Abigail Wozniak. April 2013, Finance and Economics Discussion Series – Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.
“We examine explanations for the secular decline in interstate migration since the 1980s. After showing that demographic and socioeconomic factors can account for little of this decrease, we present evidence suggesting that it is related to a downward trend in labor market transitionsi.e. a decline in the fraction of workers moving from job to job, changing industry, and changing occupationthat occurred over the same period. We explore a number of reasons why these flows have diminished over time, including changes in the distribution of job opportunities across space, polarization in the labor market, concerns of dual-career households, and a strengthening of internal labor markets. We find little empirical support for all but the last of these hypotheses. Specifically, using data from three cohorts of the National Longitudinal Surveys spanning the 1970s to the 2000s, we find that wage gains associated with employer transitions have fallen, possibly signaling a growing role for internal labor markets in determining wages.”