The Economist no paywall: “…In this war, Israel’s aim is clear: to demolish the threat posed by Iran’s regime. By contrast, Mr Trump and his cabinet have offered a mess of shifting assertions—about Iran’s missiles, nuclear weapons, regime change, following Israel’s lead, a “feeling” Iran was about to attack and settling scores after decades of enmity. Politically, vagueness gives Mr Trump room for manoeuvre. Strategically, his failure to say what Epic Fury is for is its biggest vulnerability. The result is a split-personality war.

• One face is operational. America and Israel have destroyed Iran’s navy and grounded its air force. They are wrecking its missile capability and its arms industry and targeting the regime and its brutal enforcers. Dominance of the skies means that America and Israel can fight on at will. Interceptor missiles are meanwhile defending bases and cities in Israel and the Gulf countries, even as Iran strikes at more targets than it did during the conflict last June. So far, at least, there are enough interceptors to keep going. The other face of this war is political, and it emerges from Iran’s strategy, which is about sowing doubt and confusion. To survive would count as victory for Iran’s regime. So far, it is succeeding. Far from falling apart, it is rushing to escalate horizontally—a fancy way of saying it is lashing out in all directions. This has a number of consequences.
• One is that other countries are being sucked in. Iran has attacked the Gulf states, which have bet their future on being havens from the chaos gripping the rest of the Middle East. Fighting has also erupted in Lebanon as Israel smashes Hizbullah, Iran’s main proxy. France and Britain will defend their bases from attack. On March 4th NATO air defences shot down an Iranian missile bound for Turkey. Another consequence is economic. Iran has tried to shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off perhaps 20% of global oil supplies. It has also struck energy infrastructure, including the world’s biggest gas-liquefaction complex and Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery. The price of Brent crude is up by 14% since February 27th, to $83 a barrel. A megawatt-hour of natural gas in Europe costs €54 ($63), over 70% more than last week. As Asian buyers scramble for supplies, prices could go higher. The global economy could yet suffer a hit. If oil reaches $100 a barrel, GDP growth could be lowered by 0.4 percentage points and inflation raised by 1.2 points.
• The third potential consequence is chaos inside Iran. Roughly 40% of its 90m people belong to ethnic minorities, including Arabs, Azeris, Baluchis, Kurds and Lurs. The Arab spring showed how countries can fall apart. America and Israel are putting pressure on the regime by backing Kurdish insurgents—a reckless idea that could end up stoking Persian nationalism or civil war. Mr Trump may not care about this, but he could not ignore the effects spilling over Iran’s borders into the Gulf states, Iraq, Syria and Turkey…”