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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 17-18, 2015

FOMC Minutes – Summary of Economic Projections

“In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 17-18, 2015, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real output growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal  likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s objectives of maximum employment and stable prices. All FOMC participants but one expected that economic growth under appropriate policy would be somewhat faster in 2015 and in 2016 than their individual estimates of the U.S. economy’s longer-run normal growth rate and at or near its longer-run rate in 2017 . Most participants projected that the unemployment rate would continue to decline in 2015 and 2016, and all participants projected that the unemployment rate would be at or below their individual judgments of its longer-run normal level by the end of 2017. Participants saw inflation, as measured by the four-quarter change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), slowing this year but picking up notably next year; almost all of the participants projected that inflation would be at or close to the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective in 2017.”

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