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Paper – An AI Approach to Fed Watching

Via TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP. “Natural language processing techniques can translate Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes into data. The results appear both intuitive and informative. For example, following the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the Fed increased the amount of time it devoted to discussing financial markets from 10 percent in 2007 to nearly 40 percent in late 2008. At more recent meetings, the Fed spent approximately equal time (~20 percent) discussing inflation, growth, financial markets, and policy. Topics like employment and trade have commanded only five percent of the Fed’s mindshare of late. Knowing what concerns the Fed might help allocators sharpen their focus on the long- term issues that matter for both monetary policy and the broader economy…”

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