News release: “The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation today released its long-term exposure report, which shows financial deterioration in some pension plans and increased deficits for PBGC.”
“Every year PBGC provides an actuarial evaluation of its expected operations and financial status. This report contains estimates and projections for both the single-employer and multiemployer programs over the next decade, including future position projections that offer a glimpse into subsequent decades. To project long-term exposure, PBGC uses two systems: the Single-Employer Pension Insurance Modeling System (SE-PIMS), and the Multiemployer Pension Insurance Modeling System (ME-PIMS). Each relies on running many simulations to derive a range of projected outcomes. The details of these models and how the simulations were run can be found in Appendix 1: Methodology, beginning on page 14.
The results of the ME-PIMS simulations, summarized on page 4, deserve particular attention. Due to the deterioration in two large multiemployer plans, the projections show a 6.2 percent chance that the multiemployer program will be insolvent by 2020, and a 29.2 percent chance that it will be insolvent by 2030.”
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