NeimanLab: “Depending on whom you ask, prediction markets are either:

• A dangerous, unregulated form of gambling that allows for degenerate betting on real events, unfettered by the economic and legal rules that keep stock markets and sports betting in check, creating an opportunity for corruption and insider trading on a scale we have never seen before.
• Perfectly legal crystal balls that could replace polling and happen to come with a side of money.

Whatever they are, they’re constantly changing, and they’re increasingly becoming a part of the news business. In the last few months, Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market, has struck deals with CNBC, CNN, Fox News, and the AP, among others. Polymarket, another prediction market, announced a partnership with Substack in February and one with Dow Jones in January. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are also been positioning themselves as news providers in their own right — Polymarket, for example, borrows the language of news organizations (“BREAKING” and “JUST IN“) in its social media presence, which is dominated by tweets about the news followed by a link for users to bet on that news (and is also filled with misinformation). Keeping up with prediction markets is practically a full-time job, and for a few journalists they’ve become an opportunity to stake out a new beat at the intersection of politics, culture, finance, technology, sports, and even possibly true crime…”