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Revisions to CBO’s Projection of Potential Output Since 2007

“As part of its economic and budgetary projections, CBO estimates past and future potential output—also called potential gross domestic product (GDP), and defined as the maximum sustainable amount of real (inflation-adjusted) output that the economy can produce. For various reasons, CBO’s projections for potential GDP in a specific year can change over time. This report examines a change in CBO’s projections of potential output for the year 2017, comparing the projection it published in January 2007 with the one it released in February 2014. From the earlier projection to the more recent, CBO’s projection for potential output in 2017 declined by 7.3 percent.”

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