April 7 – Global Stock Markets Crash as United States Likely Next – Global stock markets have crashed overnight, the United States is set to have one of the worst stock market days in recent history, recession fears are rising fast, and Trump will not lift his tariffs.

The Tax Foundation: “Key Findings

• President Trump has threatened to impose International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China related to fentanyl; national security tariffs on autos, auto parts, steel, and aluminum from all countries; and IEEPA tariffs on all countries related to an economic national emergency.
• The average tariff rate on all imports will rise from 2.5 percent in 2024 to 16.5 percent—the highest average rate since 1937—under the Trump tariffs announced for 2025. Tariffs will cause imports to fall by slightly more than $800 billion in 2025, or 25 percent.
• The newly announced universal Trump tariffs on April 2 will raise $1.5 trillion in revenue over the next decade and shrink US GDP by 0.4 percent. The April 2 escalation comes in addition to previously announced tariffs, which will raise $1.3 in revenue over the next decade and shrink US GDP by 0.3 percent. Altogether, Trump’s tariffs will raise nearly $2.9 trillion in revenue over the next decade and reduce US GDP by 0.7 percent, all before foreign retaliation.
• The Trump tariffs will reduce after-tax income by an average of 1.9 percent and amount to an average tax increase of more than $1,900 per US household in 2025.
• As of April 4, China, Canada, and the European Union have announced or imposed retaliatory tariffs altogether affecting $330 billion of US exports. Imposed and threatened retaliation as of April 4 will reduce US GDP by another 0.1 percent.
• In 2025, the Trump tariffs will increase federal tax revenues by $258.4 billion, or 0.85 percent of GDP, making the tariffs the largest tax hike since 1982. The 2025 Trump tariffs are larger than the tax increases enacted under Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama.
• The first Trump administration-imposed tariffs on thousands of products valued at approximately $380 billion in 2018 and 2019. The second Trump administration tariffs now affect all United States imports excluding USMCA trade and certain energy-related imports, or more than $2.5 trillion of US imports…”
• See also Notes on the Crisis – Trump’s “Liberation Day” and the Ongoing Stock Market Crash: “The Key Lessons to Take into the Second Week of the Market Bloodbath…What does this all have to do with tariffs? Well, the Trump tariffs are remarkable because of the combination of the way they are being introduced, as well as the extremity of the tariffs (or more frankly: insanity). They were literally generated by an AI chatbot which was asked for an “easy” way to calculate tariff rates. The Washington Post reported that the “AI chatbot” option was personally chosen by Trump less than three hours before Trump went onto the White House’s Rose Garden to announce the tariffs. In essence, his “Liberation day” Tariffs have created a supply chain crisis for the United States comparable in speed and scale to the global pandemic which shut down the world five years ago. It’s important to step back and process that statement and just how remarkable it is…”
• See also The New Yorker – The Truth About Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” [no paywall] – The President’s one-man trade war was already hurting the economy. His expansive new tariffs will make things worse. After weeks of nervous anticipation in the financial markets and in the capitals of America’s trading partners, Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have arrived, and, even by his standards, they are shockingly high and wide-ranging. “For decades our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far,” Trump said on Wednesday to a crowd at the White House that included members of United Auto Workers, and also elected Republicans. After delivering a potted economic history of the country in which he bizarrely claimed that the Great Depression would have been avoided if high tariffs had been in place, Trump announced that “reciprocal tariffs” would go into effect on April 9th, with rates of thirty-four per cent on goods imported from China, twenty-four per cent on Japan, and twenty per cent on the European Union. Some of the highest rates were reserved for export-led developing countries in Asia: forty-six per cent on Vietnam, forty-eight per cent on Laos, and forty-nine per cent on Cambodia.”
• See also CNN Reliable Sources – “…That question is top of mind for journalists as global markets plunge and U.S. stock futures point to further declines at the open today. Industry leaders like Jamie Dimon and Trump boosters like Bill Ackman are sounding alarms… Bankers and analysts are making frightening comparisons to 1987, 2008 and 2020… And financial news websites are dusting off their explainers about circuit breakers, just in case. One of CNBC.com’s top stories this morning: “How much do stocks have to drop before trading is halted?“