Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide
Mian, Atif R. and Sufi, Amir and Verner, Emil, Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide (September 3, 2015). Available for download at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2655804 “A rise in the household debt to GDP ratio predicts lower output growth and higher unemployment over the medium-run, contrary to standard macroeconomic models. GDP forecasts by the IMF and OECD …