Bank of Canada: Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil
Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil Working Paper 2011-16, Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, August 2011 “We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent …